DEVELOPMENTAL PATTERNS OF ALCOHOL USE IN RELATION TO THE PERSISTENCE AND DESISTANCE OF SERIOUS VIOLENT OFFENDING AMONG AFRICAN AMERICAN AND CAUCASIAN YOUNG MEN*

This study examined the association of alcohol use with the persistence and desistance of serious violent offending among African American and Caucasian young men from adolescence into emerging adulthood. Five violence groups were defined: nonviolent, late‐onsetters, desisters, persisters, and one‐time offenders. We examined alcohol use trajectories for these groups spanning 12 through 24/25 years of age using a four‐piecewise linear growth model s 12–14, 14–18, 18–21, and 21–24/25 years of age. The persisters and desisters reported the highest levels of drinking at 13 years of age. From 14 to 18 years old, however, the late‐onsetters showed a higher rate of increase in drinking, compared with the persisters and desisters. Starting at 18 years of age, the desisters’ drinking trajectory started to resemble that of the nonviolent group, who showed the highest rate of increase in drinking during emerging adulthood. By 24/25 years of age, the persisters could not be distinguished from the late‐onsetters, but they were lower than the nonviolent and one‐timer groups in terms of their drinking. At 24/25 years old, the desisters were not significantly different from the other violence groups, although they seemed most similar to the nonviolent and one‐timer groups. We found no evidence that the association between drinking and violence differed for African Americans and Caucasians. The findings suggest that yearly changes in alcohol use could provide important clues for preventing violent offending.     

LIFE‐COURSE DESISTERS? TRAJECTORIES OF CRIME AMONG DELINQUENT BOYS FOLLOWED TO AGE 70*

Linking recently collected data to form what is arguably the longest longitudinal study of crime to date, this paper examines trajectories of offending over the life course of delinquent boys followed from ages 7 to 70. We assess whether there is a distinct offender group whose rates of crime remain stable with increasing age, and whether individual differences, childhood characteristics, and family background can foretell long‐term trajectories of offending. On both counts, our results come back negative. Crime declines with age sooner or later for all offender groups, whether identified prospectively according to a multitude of childhood and adolescent risk factors, or retrospectively based on latent‐class models of trajectories. We conclude that desistance processes are at work even among active offenders and predicted life‐course persisters, and that childhood prognoses account poorly for long‐term trajectories of offending.     

THE PREDICTIVE VALUE OF CRIMINAL BACKGROUND CHECKS: DO AGE AND CRIMINAL HISTORY AFFECT TIME TO REDEMPTION?*

Criminal record checks are being used increasingly by decision makers to predict future unwanted behaviors. A central question these decision makers face is how much time it takes before offenders can be considered “redeemed” and resemble nonoffenders in terms of the probability of offending. Building on a small literature addressing this topic for youthful, first‐time offenders, the current article asks whether this period differs across the age of last conviction and the total number of prior convictions. Using long‐term longitudinal data on a Dutch conviction cohort, we find that young novice offenders are redeemed after approximately 10 years of remaining crime free. For older offenders, the redemption period is considerably shorter. Offenders with extensive criminal histories, however, either never resemble their nonconvicted counterparts or only do so after a crime‐free period of more than 20 years. Practical and theoretical implications of these findings are discussed.     

THE EFFECTS OF LIFE CIRCUMSTANCES ON LONGITUDINAL TRAJECTORIES OF OFFENDING*

This study, which is based on individual criminal careers over a 60‐year period, focuses on the development of criminal behavior. It first examines the impact that life circumstances such as work and marriage have on offending, then tests whether the effects of these circumstances are different for different groups of offenders, and finally examines the extent to which the age‐crime relationship at the aggregate level can be explained by age‐graded differences in life circumstances. Official data were retrieved for a 4‐percent (N=4,615) sample of all individuals whose criminal case was tried in the Netherlands in 1977. Self‐report data were derived from a nationally representative survey administered in the Netherlands in 1996 to 2,244 individuals aged 15 years or older. In analyzing this data, we use semi‐parametric group‐based models. Results indicate that life circumstances substantially influence the chances of criminal behavior, and that the effects of these circumstances on offending differ across offender groups. Age‐graded changes in life circumstances, however, explain the aggregate age‐crime relationship only to a modest extent.     

The Intergenerational Cycle of Criminality—Association with Psychopathy*

Abstract: Preventive interventions early in life are likely to lower the risk of intergenerational transmission of criminal behavior. We investigated if psychopathy among homicidal offenders is associated with criminal offending among the offenders’ offspring. The basic sample consisted of consecutive Finnish homicide offenders (during 1995–2004) who had been subjected to a forensic psychiatric examination and rated for a file‐based PCL‐R, and their offspring. Criminal behavior among both genders of the offspring was more common than in the general population. In general, the offspring’s crimes against others (e.g., threat, intimidation, deprivation of freedom, breach of domicile) were associated with their parent’s psychopathy. A grandfather’s major mental disorder was associated with a high rate of crime committed by the offspring. Especially, the sons of male psychopathic homicidal offenders had the highest rate of committing crimes, which was often expressed as vandalism. However, both genders of offspring seem to require special preventive programs to ameliorate these problems.     

Investigating Life Course Offender Subgroup Heterogeneity: An Exploratory Latent Class Analysis Approach

Within developmental criminology, a common classification of offender behavior is life course trajectories broken into discrete groups of early onseters, late onseters, persisters, or desisters. Yet some investigators state that this is an oversimplification of offending behavior and may not be applicable to females and males. The current study utilizes National Youth Survey data and exploratory latent class analysis to determine whether substantive latent classes exist within offender life course trajectories for females and males and to examine differences between the genders across these groups. The analyses reveal the presence of 4 types of latent subgroups: (a) female-majority de-escalators, (b) male-majority persistent de-escalators, (c) male-dominated persisters, and (d) male-majority chronic fluctuators. Post hoc analyses reveal similarities and differences among the latent groups. Research implications of this study suggest further explorations into whether strict 2-pronged developmental models are indeed appropriately tapping and capturing the full essence of criminal careers for both females and males. The results suggest that continued programming that disrupts delinquent peer associations and reduces consumption of drugs and/or alcohol may be promising in promoting desistance—particularly for females.     

Prevalence and Characteristics of Co‐Offending Recruiters

Previous examinations of co‐offending have identified a subset of high‐rate offenders who commit crimes with a large number of co‐offenders, most of whom are younger and less criminally experienced. These so‐called “recruiters” are of particular interest to researchers and practitioners, because of their potential role in facilitating offending onset and recidivism among their co‐offenders. In this paper, data on 61,646 individuals detected by a large UK police force are used to identify offenders who fitted the recruiter profile, and to compare their individual and offending characteristics with those of non‐recruiters. In total, 86 recruiters were identified. In multivariate analyses, recruiters were found to be older than non‐recruiters and were typically involved in property crimes. In addition, they tended to offend in criminal groups that were more heterogeneous and stable than non‐recruiters. These findings suggest that a small but identifiable group of recruiters can be detected using official data and that these individuals may be important targets for police attention and court treatment.     

INVESTIGATING THE STABILITY OF CO‐OFFENDING AND CO‐OFFENDERS AMONG A SAMPLE OF YOUTHFUL OFFENDERS*

Scholars have long argued that delinquency is a group phenomenon. Even so, minimal research exists on the nature, structure, and process of co‐offending. This investigation focuses on a particular void, namely the stability of 1) co‐offending and 2) co‐offender selection over time, for which divergent theoretical expectations currently exist that bear on issues central to general and developmental/life‐course theories of crime. By relying on individual‐level, longitudinal data for a sample of juvenile offenders from Philadelphia, we find that distinct trajectories of co‐offending exist over the course of the juvenile criminal career. This inquiry also develops an individualized measure of co‐offender stability, which reveals that delinquents generally tend not to “reuse” co‐offenders, although frequent offenders show a greater propensity to do so. The discussion considers the theoretical and policy implications of these findings as well as provides some avenues for future research.     

OFFENDING TRAJECTORIES IN A NEW ZEALAND BIRTH COHORT*

In this paper, we develop a latent class modeling method to examine variation in offending trajectories. This model is applied to test the predictions of the trajectory theories developed by Moffitt and Patterson that offending history data can be classified into early onset/life‐course‐persistent offending and late onset/adolescent‐limited offending trajectories, with these trajectory groups being related to different etiological factors. The approach was applied to data gathered over the course of a longitudinal study of more than 900 New Zealand children studied from birth until the age of 18. The analysis identified four trajectory groups, with these trajectory groups corresponding to nonoffenders, moderate risk offenders, adolescent onset offenders, and chronic offenders. The adolescent onset and chronic offender groups were similar to the trajectory groupings predicted by the Moffitt/Patterson theories. Examination of social, family, childhood, and peer factors associated with these offending trajectories suggested the presence of a series of common etiological factors relating to family functioning and early adjustment that discriminated between the trajectory groups. However, evidence of trajectory‐specific etiology also existed, in which the formation of deviant peer affiliations for young people from moderate risk backgrounds led to the rapid onset of offending in adolescence.     

Questioning mandatory sentencing efficiency: A case study of persistent felony offender rapists in Kentucky

This policy analysis explores the incapacitative efficiency of Kentucky’s career criminal statute in averting the recidivism of offenders convicted of rape. The study utilizes a 1985 cohort of Kentucky persistent felony offenders with at least one rape conviction (n = 62) and tracks recidivism rates up to fifteen years later. The results question the efficiency of mandatory sentencing. In general, mandatory minimum sentences (where offenders are not eligible for statutory good time or parole) kept these offenders incarcerated beyond the time necessary to avert future crimes.     

DEBT PROBLEMS AND CRIME*

The few existing studies on the association between debt problems and crime have suggested that the two are correlated, but the causal nature and direction of this association has been unclear. By using longitudinal register data (N = 20,696) from Finland on young adults’ debt default and crime, we examine the potentially reciprocal association between debt problems and crime with both cross‐sectional and longitudinal models. Debt problems and crime have a strong association in the data, which persists after controlling for several measures of socioeconomic status. The longitudinal analyses using fixed‐effects regression models show that levels of crime are higher during periods of debt enforcement, ruling out stable between‐person heterogeneity as the sole cause. The final analysis examining the exact timing of new debt defaults and crime shows signs of a mutually reinforcing association; the rate of newly enforced debt increases in the months preceding the first crime leading to a conviction and continues to increase afterward mostly because of criminal monetary sanctions left unpaid. The conclusion of the analysis is that debt problems have a dynamic association with criminal offending. We discuss the difficult barrier that unpaid debts pose to offenders seeking to desist from criminal activity in the current Finnish context.     

Recidivism among sex offenders: a follow-up study of 541 Norwegian sex offenders

A study of recidivism to sexual offences was conducted among Norwegian males who had received their first conviction for a sexual crime during the years 1970-1974. Five hundred and forty-one out of a total of 1,071 offenders were randomly selected and followed by means of official and public register systems until the end of August 1983. No one was contacted personally by the investigators. The recidivism rate was 12.8%, with the rapists having the highest tendency to commit new sexual crimes. Acts like incest, exploitation of someone in the custody of the perpetrator or similar felonies against so-called public morals were least likely to be repeated. Most of the repeat offenders only had one single subsequent offence, either of the same type of crime as at the first or to a less severe crime. Only a handful committed more than one repeat offence. A large number of the sexual offenders had committed others types of crimes, some prior to their first conviction for the sexual crime and some subsequent. Most of our criminally convicted males had a record of mixed criminality, in which crimes of profit and violence dominated.     

The criminal career of men convicted of rape: evidence from a Norwegian national cohort

The extent to which sexual offenders are a group separate from other types of offenders has been debated for many years and investigated from different perspectives. The present study investigated similarities and differences regarding socio-economic background, criminal history and recidivism involving new crimes between rape offenders and three other groups: other sexual offenders, non-sexual violent offenders and other offenders. Data came from Norwegian population registers containing information on all crimes investigated from 1992 to 2012. The sample consisted of all persons convicted in 2002 and 2003 (N = 36,951). Background characteristics and estimated recidivism risk was described using hazard models. Results indicated that men convicted of rape (n = 142) had lower levels of education and that a higher percentage of them were on social benefits compared to the other crime groups. A large majority (79%) of rape-convicted men had previous convictions. Rape offenders were considerably more criminally active and diverse than the other crime groups. Prior criminal record, irrespective of type, increased the risk of recidivism in general. Controlling for other background characteristics did not alter this outcome. Treatment of convicted rapists needs to take into consideration that this offender group has much in common with violent offenders in general.     

Juvenile sex-only and sex-plus offenders: an exploratory study on criminal profiles

In this study, research was done on the criminal profiles of a large group of juvenile sex-only and sex-plus (sex and other offenses) delinquents (N = 4,430) in the Netherlands. Use was made of information from police records. Results show that sex-plus offenders start their careers earlier, that more of these offenders are of non-Dutch origin, that they commit more crimes, and will partly continue their criminal career after their adolescence. Juvenile sex-only offenders rarely go on committing crimes. In sex-plus offenders, sexual crimes play only a minor role in their total crime repertory. As time goes by, their criminal career will develop into the direction of property crimes. Finally, the implications and limitations of this study will be discussed.     

Law Enforcement Advocate Program: An Interagency Collaboration to Enhance Community‐Police Relations and Improve Outcomes for Substance‐Using Offenders

Justice system involvement is highly correlated with substance‐use issues. Untreated, substance‐using offenders are likely to continue to use drugs, commit crimes, and pose a public safety risk. Strategies to address substance use in the criminal justice system often fall short in terms of integrating services and sustaining engagement among high‐risk adult and juvenile populations. Law enforcement can help to bridge identified gaps by offering a community‐based solution to the interrelated challenges of substance use, crime, and recidivism for offenders. The Law Enforcement Advocate Program has been effective in improving probationer compliance and outcomes, facilitating problem solving and interagency coordination, and improving community‐police relations.     

PROBABILISTIC MODELS OF YOUTHFUL CRIMINAL CAREERS

This paper focuses on the characterization of the criminal careers of youthful offenders. It was found that these criminal careers could be modeled with parameters rejecting constant individual rates of offending and constant probability of career termination; population heterogeneity could be adequately represented by two distinct groups—designated here as "frequents" and occasionals." These parameters were estimated for the multiple offenders in a London cohort studied from their first convictions until age 25. In that cohort, the frequents were estimated to have an annual conviction rate of 1.14 convictions per year (constant with age) and a probability of career termination of .10 following each conviction; the occasionals had an annual conviction rate of .41 and termination probability of .33 following each conviction; the frequents were estimated to comprise 43% of the population, and the occasionals the others 57%. While this parsimonious model structure was adequate for the London cohort, it must still be tested with other offender populations.     

Street justice: Some micro-moral reservations: Comment on sykes

Research on the use of incapacitation strategies to reduce crime has increased rapidly in the last decade. Estimates of the crime reduction potential are numerous and variable, reflecting different assumptions by researchers. This paper reviews and synthesizes studies of collective and selective incapacitation. Sentencing practices in the 1970s and early 1980s prevented an estimated 10 to 30 percent of potential crimes through collective incapacitation strategies. Greater use of incarceration, such as through mandatory minimum sentences, would prevent additional crimes, but prison populations would increase substantially. Selective incapacitation strategies target a small group of convicted offenders, those who are predicted to commit serious crimes at high rates, for incarceration. These high-rate serious offenders, however, are difficult to identify accurately with information currently available in official criminal history records. Preliminary research, assuming moderate accuracy, suggests that selective incapacitation may prevent some crimes, such as 5 to 10 percent of robberies by adults, but increases in prison populations would result. The future of selective incapacitation is discussed in light of current research and knowledge about serious criminal activity.     

CRIMINAL ACHIEVEMENT, OFFENDER NETWORKS AND THE BENEFITS OF LOW SELF-CONTROL

This study follows recent research on criminal earnings and examines the impact of underlying traits (low self-control) and personal organization features (nonredundant networking) on the criminal earnings of a sample of incarcerated offenders previously involved in market and predatory crimes. Controlling for various background factors (age, noncriminal income, lambda and costs of doing crime), both low self-control and nonredundant networking independently explain why some offenders are more successful than others in achieving higher monetary standards through crime. Although efficient, brokerage-like networking enhances market offenders' earnings, low self-control emerges as an asset for predatory offenders: the lower their self-control, the higher their criminal earnings. For market offenders, however, low self-control has no direct effect, but it does mitigate the impact of effective networking on criminal earnings. The results emerging from this study have implications for Gottfredson and Hirschi's theory of crime and the advent of a criminal network perspective. Extensions are also made toward the conventional/criminal embeddedness framework and deterrence research.     

Investigation of the Criminal and Conditional Release Profiles of Canadian Federal Offenders as a Function of Psychopathy and Age

Using the Psychopathy Checklist-Revised (PCL-R; R. D. Hare, 1991) diagnostic cutoff score of 30, the complete criminal career and community release profiles of 317 Canadian federal offenders (224 low scorers and 93 scoring within the psychopathic range) were investigated. Adult crimes were coded according to age at commission as well as either violent, nonviolent, or nonsexually violent. Changes in performance following release into the community also were examined. Results indicated that offenders scoring within the psychopathic range consistently committed more violent and nonviolent crimes than their counterparts for about three decades, spanning their late adolescence to their late 40s. Numbers of nonviolent criminal offenses committed by high PCL-R scorers declined considerably after age 30 relative to violent offenses, which declined and then rebounded in the late 30s before a major reduction was evidenced. Throughout adulthood, high PCL-R scorers failed during community release significantly faster than did low scorers. Importantly, from a risk management perspective, the release performance of low PCL-R scorers improved with age, whereas the opposite was seen for high scorers. Further, offenders scoring high on the PCL-R did not show a lower charge to conviction ratio with age, suggesting that they may not have been getting better at manipulating the legal system.