A Situational Model for Distinguishing Terrorist and Non-Terrorist Aerial Hijackings, 1948–2007

Despite the centrality of situational variables to crime theories, they remain uncommon in criminology. Based on the hypotheses drawn from the literature on situational determinants of crime, we examine whether aerial hijackings perpetrated by terrorists are situationally distinct from other aerial hijackings. We define terrorist hijackings as those that include threatened or actual use of illegal force or violence to attain a political, economic, religious or social goal through fear, coercion, or intimidation. Other aerial hijackings include those perpetrated for transportation or extortion purposes. Using a newly updated dataset, we examined 1,019 aerial hijackings that occurred around the world from 1948 to 2007, out of which we classified 122 as terrorism. Results provide strong support for the argument that situational factors measuring organizational resources distinguish terrorist from non-terrorist aerial hijackings, and partial support for the argument that situational factors measuring publicity distinguish these events.     

Mock terrorists decisions’ concerning use of the internet for target selection: a red-team approach

In this study we sought to identify which locations appear more, or less, attractive to a terrorist in planning an attack and to investigate what attributes of those locations influence preferences. A sample of undergraduate university students (N?=?147) were given the role of terrorists, and provided with five potential attack locations, including a pedestrian mall, a shopping center, a train station, a university and an airport. After using the Internet to learn about the target locations, participants placed the locations in rank-order from most to least preferred as targets and indicated why they had selected those targets. Results showed both a clear rank-order of target preferences: locations perceived as being more crowded were more preferred, while locations with a greater security presence were less preferred. Results also demonstrated a moderate positive correlation between the amount of online information viewed for a specific location and the preference for that location as a terrorist target, where participants who viewed more online content for a particular location were more likely to also prefer that location as a terrorist target. Findings from this study can potentially be used to reduce the likelihood of a terrorist attack occurring on specific locations, by altering the publicly available information on that location regarding the security and how crowded that location is.     

Eastern Turkistan Islamic Movement: a case study of a new terrorist organization in China

The Eastern Turkistan Islamic Movement (ETIM) was designated a terrorist organization by Afghanistan, Kyrgyzstan, China, the United States, and the United Nations in 2002. However, no systematic studies have been published on the new terrorist organization in Xinjiang, China. Using a case-study approach and interviews, this article attempts to provide information in terms of its historical evaluation, related religious and ethnic issues, organizational agenda, activities, and role in the current international terrorist network. This article argues that better international cooperation and the improvement of social and religious policies will help curtail activities of the ETIM.     

Effects of advanced age and dementia on restoration of competence to stand trial

Elderly defendants (age 65+) and defendants with dementia adjudicated incompetent to stand trial and hospitalized for restoration to competence (RTC) often present unique challenges to clinicians charged with their restoration. In this study, we attempted to better identify predictors of successful RTC by building upon previous research correlating increased age with decreased likelihood of RTC. We identified elderly non-demented defendants (n = 31) and defendants diagnosed with dementia (n = 47) from a state database of 1380 individuals hospitalized for competence restoration from 1988–2004. Using regression analysis and correcting for demographic variables and common admission psychiatric diagnoses, we studied the relationship of age at hospital admission and dementia diagnosis on the likelihood of successful RTC. Both advanced age and dementia diagnosis were associated with decreased RTC. After correcting for dementia diagnosis, increased age retained its negative correlation with restoration success. Both elderly non-demented defendants and defendants diagnosed with dementia were significantly less likely to be restored to competence than all other RTC admissions (n = 1302). However, a substantial percentage of both demented and elderly non-demented defendants were successfully restored to competence, potentially justifying restoration attempts for both of these groups of defendants.     

Fraud victimization: Risky business or just bad luck?

Victimology theory recognizes that the characteristics, attitudes, and behaviors of potential victims influence the likelihood of criminal victimization. An important question for victimologists is whether potential victims put themselves at risk by engaging in risky behavior or whether victimization is primarily a result of bad luck. While this question has been investigated extensively with respect to street crime victimization, little attempt has been made to apply it to victimization by fraud. This article investigates the influence of attitudes toward financial risk taking on the likelihood of fraud victimization. Using data from a telephone survey of 400 randomly sampled respondents, we find that age and attitudes toward financial risk taking are significantly related to the likelihood of attempted victimizations but not to successful victimizations.     

DETERRENCE Theory versus Practice

Abstract Recently, some researchers have attempted to resurrect deterrence theory. These researchers have focused on the relationship between certainty and severity of punishment and subsequent rates of crime. An inverse relationship has been found, leading these researchers to conclude that penal sanctions deter crime. This paper presents another hypothesis, namely, that increases in crime may overburden existing legal machinery, and thus cause decreases in the certainty of punishment as a result. Using the same data employed in past deterrence studies, this paper demonstrates that crime may affect certainty of punishment more strongly than certainty of punishment affects the crime rate, a finding which seriously questions the ability of legal threats as currently administered in American society to deter crime.     

Re-Examining the Functional Form of the Certainty Effect in Deterrence Theory

In this paper we explore the functional form of the risk-certainty effect for deterrence. Using a sample of serious youth offenders, we first estimate a simple linear model of the relationship between the perceived certainty of punishment and self-reported offending. Consistent with previous literature we find evidence of a moderate deterrent effect. We then examined whether, consistent with a linear model, the effect of perceived risk is truly constant at different ranges of the risk continuum. Estimating a nonparametric regression model that makes no a priori assumption about the functional form of the model but allows the data itself to yield the appropriate functional form, we found marked departures from linearity. Our examination showed evidence of both a tipping effect, whereby perceived risk deters only when it reaches a certain threshold (between an estimated risk of .3 and .4) and a substantially accelerated deterrent effect for individuals at the high end of the risk continuum. Perceived sanction threats did, however, have a non-trivial deterrent effect within the mid-range of risk. The implications of our findings for both theory and additional research are discussed.     

The (Dis)Advantage of Certainty: The Importance of Certainty in Language

How can legal decision makers increase the likelihood of a favorable response from other legal and social actors? To answer this, we propose a novel theory based on the certainty expressed in language that is applicable to many different legal contexts. The theory is grounded in psychology and legal advocacy and suggests that expressing certainty enhances the persuasiveness of a message. We apply this theory to the principal–agent framework to examine the treatment of Supreme Court precedent by the Federal Courts of Appeal. We find that as the level of certainty in the Supreme Court's opinion increases, the lower courts are more likely to positively treat the Court's decision. We then discuss the implications of our findings for using certainty in a broader context.     

国际恐怖活动社会基础与特征

随着人类社会形态的演进，为达成特定政治目的和社会目的而进行恐怖活动屡禁不绝。当前，随着国际上各种矛盾斗争的发展，作为一种特异现象的国际恐怖活动也日益蔓延，以劫机爆炸、绑票与劫持人质、劫船、劫车、暗杀、袭击等形式的恐怖活动急剧增多。相比于中国民国时期的恐怖活动，它有其特定的政治基础和社会基础，并呈现出独特的行为特征：攻击目标的确定与不确定并存，实施手段的先进性与落后性并存，活动的有组织性与无组织性并存，作案的连续性和残忽性。     

Positive Resolution of Childhood Sexual Abuse Experiences: The Role of Coping,Benefit-Finding and Meaning-Making

Resolution of the trauma of childhood sexual abuse (CSA), and the current adjustment of 60 adult female CSA survivors were explored through qualitative and quantitative analyses of their coping strategies, perceived benefits, and meaning-making attempts. While the majority of the women (87%) perceived at least some benefit resulting from coping with the CSA experience, many (29%) found it impossible to make any meaning of their trauma. Specific benefits that were associated with various aspects of positive adjustment (marital satisfaction, better physical health, less isolation) included improved relationships with others, religious or spiritual growth, and improved parenting skills. Some perceived benefits were actually associated with a negative outcome. Increased knowledge of sexual abuse was associated with more isolation and lower marital satisfaction. When positive meaning could be derived from the coping process, the women reported less isolation. Avoidant coping was strongly associated with more depressive symptoms and poorer resolution of abuse issues. Results highlight the importance of considering coping strategies and cognitive restructuring efforts in designing therapeutic interventions with this population. Portions of this paper were presented at the annual meeting of the Midwest Psychological Association, May 2004, Chicago, IL.     

When Do We Think About Detection? Structural Opportunity and Taxpaying Behavior

Past studies have generally found that perceptions of the likelihood of formal and informal sanctions have lower explanatory power of noncompliance with laws than do internalized norms. Using data from two telephone surveys, we examined a situational characteristic, structural opportunity, that may prod individuals to think about the likelihood of detection from the Internal Revenue Service for underreporting income. Structural opportunity is the degree to which an individual's economic or social situation provides ways to avoid detection. Individuals with high structural opportunity perceived a lower likelihood of IRS detection and indicated that they were less likely to feel guilty if they engaged in tax cheating. Our data also suggested that some individuals with high structural opportunity may be in social networks which condone tax cheating. As expected, structural opportunity provided a condition under which individuals took into consideration the perceived likelihood of formal and informal detection in formulating intentions to engage in tax cheating. Our findings suggest that an examination of the interaction between situational and individual characteristics will provide a more complete understanding of decisions to engage in illegal behavior. Implications for deterrence theory are discussed.     

Do Term Limits Restrain State Fiscal Policy? Approaches for Causal Inference in Assessing the Effects of Legislative Institutions

Scholars of state politics are often interested in the causal effects of legislative institutions on policy outcomes. For example, during the 1990s a number of states adopted term limits for state legislators. Advocates of term limits argued that this institutional reform would alter state policy in a number of ways, including limiting state expenditures. We highlight a number of research design issues that complicate attempts to estimate the effect of institutions on state outcomes by addressing the question of term limits and spending. In particular, we focus on (1) treatment effect heterogeneity and (2) the suitability of nonterm‐limit states as good counterfactuals for term‐limit states. We compare two different identification strategies to deal with these issues: differences‐in‐differences (DID) estimation and conditioning on prior outcomes with an emphasis on synthetic case control. Using more rigorous methods of causal inference, we find little evidence that term limits affect state spending. Our analysis and results are informative for researchers seeking to assess the causal effects of state‐level institutions.     

THE MISSING LINK IN GENERAL DETERRENCE RESEARCH*

Research on the deterrent effects of punishment falls into two categories: macro‐level studies of the impact of aggregate punishment levels on crime rates, and individual‐level studies of the impact of perceived punishment levels on self‐reported criminal behavior. For policy purposes, however, the missing link—ignored in previous research—is that between aggregate punishment levels and individual perceptions of punishment. This paper addresses whether higher actual punishment levels increase the perceived certainty, severity, or swiftness of punishment. Telephone interviews with 1,500 residents of fifty‐four large urban counties were used to measure perceptions of punishment levels, which were then linked to actual punishment levels as measured in official statistics. Hierarchical linear model estimates of multivariate models generally found no detectable impact of actual punishment levels on perceptions of punishment. The findings raise serious questions about deterrence‐based rationales for more punitive crime control policies.     

Adverse Neighborhood Conditions and Sanction Risk Perceptions: Using SEM to Examine Direct and Indirect Effects

Objectives

The present study examines how individuals’ sanction risk perceptions are shaped by neighborhood context.

Methods

Using structural equation modeling on data from waves 6 and 7 of the National Youth Survey, we assess the direct and indirect relationships between adverse neighborhood conditions and two dimensions of sanction risk perceptions: the certainty of punishment and perceived shame. In addition, the role of shame as a mediator between neighborhood context and certainty of punishment is also investigated.

Results

The results indicate that adverse neighborhood conditions indirectly affect both forms of sanction risk perceptions, and additional results show that perceived shame fully mediates the effect of neighborhood conditions on perceptions of the certainty of punishment.

Conclusions

The perceptual deterrence/rational choice perspective will need to be revised to accommodate more explicitly the role of neighborhood context in shaping sanction risk perceptions.     

Modeling Change in Perceptions about Sanction Threats: The Neglected Linkage in Deterrence Theory

Deterrence theory describes a process of offender decision making that consists of two linkages—one in which official sanctions and other information affect a would-be offenders perceptions about the risks of criminal conduct, and another in which such perceptions influence the decision whether or not to offend. Decades worth of empirical research has concentrated virtually exclusively on this latter linkage, and in so doing, has produced an incomplete account of the deterrence process. This article develops a model of how perceptions of sanction certainty are modified in response to an individuals involvement in criminal activity and the consequences (if any) therefrom. Implications of the model are tested with data from a multi-wave, panel survey of 1,530 high school students from the southeastern U.S. Key findings include: the manner in which new information affects perceived certainty depends on the level of perceived certainty before the new information is received, and the extent of peer offending was one of the most influential factors in determining change in perceived sanction certainty over time.     

Frequency and Clinical Features of Patients who Attempted Suicide by Hara‐Kiri in Japan

Hara‐kiri is a unique Japanese custom, primarily stemming from the manners and customs that a samurai held. The aim of the present study was to investigate the clinical features of individuals who attempted suicide by hara‐kiri. We enrolled 647 patients who had attempted suicide. Clinical features were compared between those who had employed hara‐kiri and those who had used other methods. 25 of the 647 subjects had attempted suicide by hara‐kiri. The ratio of men to women and the proportion of patients with mood disorders were significantly higher in the hara‐kiri group than in the other methods group. The average length of stay in either the hospital or in the intensive care unit was also longer in the hara‐kiri group than in the other methods group. Hara‐kiri is an original Japanese method of attempting suicide, and suicide attempts by hara‐kiri may be aimed at maintaining a reputation or taking responsibility.     

The Moderating Effects of Informal Social Control in the Sanctions-Compliance Nexus

Deterrence researchers have abandoned a one-size-fits-all approach and identified a wide range of individual characteristics (e.g., low self-control, emotional arousal) associated with the decision to offend. Comparatively less attention has been given to the moderating effects of purely situational factors on intentions to break the law. Drawing on social control and rational choice literatures, we utilized a vignette-based survey and asked a sample of young adults to report on their likelihood of driving drunk under conditions of high and low informal social control. We then explored the effects of certainty and severity of punishment on offending likelihood across both conditions. Among deterrable offenders, we found that the relationship between severity and compliance manifested only in the presence of high informal social control. Certainty was significantly and inversely associated with offending likelihood in both high and low informal social control conditions—among both deterrables and the full sample. Implications for deterrence theory are discussed.     

GENDER,NEIGHBORHOOD DANGER,AND RISK‐AVOIDANCE STRATEGIES AMONG URBAN AFRICAN‐AMERICAN YOUTHS*

Research consistently reveals that fear of crime and perceived risk are demographically and ecologically patterned. Women and individuals in disadvantaged community settings report increased fear and perceptions of risk. For women, these fears and perceptions are tied to concerns about sexual violence specifically, whereas for individuals in distressed neighborhoods, crime rates, “incivilities,” and poor police‐community relations are often identified as important correlates. Here, we build from the insights of previous research by examining the gendered nature of perceived risk and risk‐management strategies among urban African‐American adolescents. Our findings suggest that both risk and risk‐avoidance strategies are strikingly different for young women and young men and are shaped by the gendered organizational features of neighborhood life. We propose that future research will benefit by continuing to investigate how social vulnerabilities function in tandem to structure risks across ecological settings.     

Fear of terrorism: media exposure and subjective fear of attack

In many Western countries, citizen knowledge of terrorist events is intrinsically shaped by the style of broadcasted messages published by the media. Media discourses regarding terrorist acts raise questions about how such rhetoric elicits fear in people who typically experience such events through news reports. However, we do not fully understand the impact of the media on perceptions of terrorism as clearly as we understand the relationship between the media and fear of crime. This study examines how media sources accessed actively (e.g. through newspapers; Internet) or passively (e.g. through television; radio) influence knowledge and fear of terrorism. We find receiving information about terrorism from multiple media sources increases fear of terrorism, but media sources accessed passively are not as influential as media sources accessed more actively. These results highlight how media consumption from various sources may affect one’s fear of terrorism, and further illustrates how the role of perceived knowledge may exacerbate or mitigate fear. Implications for policy and practice are discussed.     

Governmental Efforts on Homeland Security and Crime: Public Views and Opinions

This paper examines views of the respondents regarding homeland security and traditional crime in the United States. Using questions from the 2007 Penn State Poll, a sample of 862 Pennsylvanians participated through a telephone interview. Participants were questioned about their concerns regarding the effectiveness of homeland security, their fear of crime (white-collar, property, violent and terrorist attacks). The results revealed that citizens were satisfied with the effectiveness of homeland security since the September 11, 2001, attacks. The results indicate that fear of crime is different for demographics, and we were able to show that those that thought homeland security had been effective increased the likelihood of fear of white-collar crime. We were also able to show demographic differences for national spending on crime. In addition, we were able to show that those who believed that homeland security was effective did not believe that national spending was at the proper level for property, violent, or white-collar crime. The implications of these results are discussed.