Old wine in new bottles: Democratic peace as empowerment of states in conflict resolution

Abstract.  This article examines the capacities of various regimes to master conflicts. The capacities of regimes are measured by an empowerment index that reflects more accurately the capacity of states to manage conflicts than measures of democracy. The study draws from a wide range of indicators to calculate values of the independent variables 'challenges' and 'support' for each existing state. In addition to these explanatory factors, regime factors are calculated independently. The dependent variable 'conflict' draws on the data set by Kosimo ( http://www.kosimo.de ) and is based on the number of conflicts occurring between 1945 and 2000. These conflicts are then considered in relation to the management capacities of each state. The analysis shows that the empowerment indicator is a better predictor of conflict involvement than the regime indicator. Cross-calculations also show that, not surprisingly, on the whole, democracies have had a better record in the management of conflicts than other regimes.     

Making meaning of violence: Human rights and historical memory of the conflict in El Salvador

Human rights narratives about victimization run the risk of depoliticizing the acts of violence that created victims. In many communities in El Salvador, grassroots memory narratives have not suppressed victims' participation in the revolutionary movement before and during the country's civil war. Quite the contrary, one of the key reasons Salvadoran survivors identify for doing memory work is preserving revolutionary ideals — not to preserve the accounting of abuses, as is familiar in international human rights circles, but rather to relate the underlying reasons why so many risked so much. There is reason to believe this is different than other countries in postconflict Latin America. This may be the result of the relative weakness of postconflict accountability efforts and a reality that may give victims less perceived incentive to frame their life histories in ways that intersect with dominant human rights tropes. It may also pose a challenge as legal accountability efforts accelerate in the years ahead.     

Violence,voting & peace: Explaining public support for the peace referendum in Colombia

How does political violence affect popular support for peace? We answer this question by examining Colombia, where in 2016 the people narrowly and unexpectedly voted against a peace agreement designed to end a half century of civil war. Building on research on the impact of political violence on elections as well as research on referendum/initiative voting in the United States, we argue that local experiences with violence and the political context will lead to heightened support for peace. We test these expectations using spatial modeling and a municipal-level data on voting in the 2016 Colombian peace referendum, and find that municipal-level support for the referendum increases with greater exposure to violence and increasing support for President Santos. These results are spatially distributed, so that exposure to violence in one municipality is associated with greater support for the peace referendum in that municipality and also in surrounding areas. Our findings have implications not only for Colombia, but for all post-war votes and other contexts in which referenda and elections have major and/or unexpected results.     

Negotiated settlements and peace referendums

Institutional innovations in conflict management have received considerable academic attention in the past decades. Yet few studies have considered the design of referendums in peace processes and the role of popular mandates in catalysing negotiated settlements. Drawing evidence from divided societies, particularly the contrasting cases of South Africa and Cyprus, the article points to the importance of ratification sequence and early mandate referendums. Specifically, it demonstrates how mandate referendums focusing initially on domestic constituencies enable leaders to pre‐empt ethnic outbidding challenges while concluding a peace agreement. An early ratification process could safeguard the peace process from unavoidable reversals in public opinion, increase flexibility as to the timing of critical decisions and maximise the credibility of leaders aiming for a negotiated settlement. The study of mandate referendums has important implications for broader research on international mediations since it suggests mechanisms by which political actors could ensure the ratification of significant treaties in global or regional politics.     

Media framing and social movement mobilization: German peace protest against INF missiles, the Gulf War, and NATO peace enforcement in Bosnia

Abstract. How does media framing of issues affect social movement mobilization? This relationship is examined in light of the striking variation in levels of German peace protest against INF missiles, the Gulf War and the NATO peace-keeping mission to Bosnia. I argue that this variation in mobilization capacity can be explained in part by the degree of congruence between media framing and movement framing of the issues involved. Congruence between the two framings facilitates movement mobilization, whereas divergence hinders it. I compare the relative congruence between movement framing and media framing in Die Tageszeitung and Der Spiegel coverage of the three issues. I also evaluate possible alternative or complementary explanations, including public opinion, 'normalization' and elite cues, and political opportunity structure.     

Socio-spatial agency and positive peace in Mostar,Bosnia and Herzegovina

ABSTRACT

Mostar has been divided since 1992, which marked the start of the civil war in Bosnia and Herzegovina. In 1995 the violent conflict ended and in 2004 the city was reunified by an interim city statute even though it remains highly contested. Drawing on research conducted in Mostar from 2014 to 2018, this article presents spatial interventions to discuss how socio spatial agency contributes to the experience of a ‘positive peace’. As such, the article presents examples of shared spaces in the divided city to focus on the temporal dimensions of the peace process.