东亚区域能源安全与东亚共同体构建

东亚共同体是未来东亚合作和东亚国家可持续发展的最佳选择。但目前它尚处于理想和现实之间,短期内无法建成。近年来,东亚大多数国家都面临着能源安全困境,它涉及到东亚国家现实的共同利益问题。区域能源安全问题已经成为当今东亚国家普遍关注和需要解决的问题。如果能够以区域能源安全合作为切入点,建立东亚能源合作机制或区域能源安全共同体,那么不仅有助于推动东亚共同体构建的进程,还可以为东亚共同体的构建和运行积累宝贵的经验。     

The Middle East: Learning from the Past

The effort to bring peace to the Middle East has been an almost century long process. Legions of soldiers, politicians, and diplomats have attempted the political equivalent of transmuting dross into gold. They have failed; none more comprehensively than President Bill Clinton and his Middle East interlocutors. Despite personal energy, intelligence, and creativity, U.S. efforts failed. After a stretch of benign/malign neglect, Washington again is venturing into the swamp by sponsoring renewed Israeli-Palestinian negotiations. There are learnable lessons from what has been (mis)managed in the past. The question remains whether the United States will take counsel from them.     

新形势下中国东北振兴战略同俄罗斯东部发展战略的互动合作

俄罗斯经济结构表现出较明显的资源依赖特征。随着金融危机在全球的蔓延,能源和原材料的国际价格大幅下跌,俄罗斯经济受到严重冲击。为了稳定经济,俄政府出台了多项救援金融业和实体经济的计划,俄罗斯政府发展东部的决心并没有动摇。新形势为俄罗斯东部发展与中国东北振兴的互动合作提供了新的机遇。双方在技术合作、产业合作、油气合作、传统贸易和交通运输等基础设施建设领域的合作将得到进一步的发展。为此,迫切需要建立长期跟踪研究机制,成立国家层面的协调机构以排解双方合作的制度性障碍,加大政府的政策扶持力度,增强中俄相互理解和信任,深入推进中俄区域合作。     

中俄油气合作现状、前景和影响

中俄油气合作已经起步。合作规模巨大：覆盖从西西伯利亚、东西伯利亚、远东到萨哈林岛海域广阔的地域,包括从油气资源的勘探开发到管道的修建乃至油气的储存和利用。中俄油气合作虽是双边的,但却是开放性的。这一世纪性大项目的实施不仅有利于中俄两国,而且也惠及所有输入油气的国家和参与合作的外国公司。不仅会促进东北亚地区的繁荣,而且也有利于世界的和平与发展。     

Rethinking neo-liberal state building: building post-conflict development states

In attempting to rebuild post-conflict failed states, the international community has drawn heavily on neo-liberal development paradigms. However, neo-liberal state building has proved ineffectual in stimulating economic development in post-conflict states, thus undermining prospects for state consolidation. This article offers the developmental state as an alternative model for international state building, better suited to overcoming the developmental challenges that face post-conflict states. Drawing on the East Asian experience, developmental state building would seek to build state capacity to intervene in the economy to guide development, compensating for the failure of growth led by the private sector to materialise in many post-conflict states. The article concludes that such an approach would, in the first instance, require the international community to accept more honestly its developmental responsibilities when it decides to intervene to rebuild failed states.     

俄罗斯与日本的经贸合作

俄罗斯和日本是两个经济大国,在战后50多年间,北方四岛领土问题阻碍了两国的经济合作,使两国经济合作发展得非常缓慢。进入普京-小泉时代,两国间的合作拓展了较为广阔的空间,将在能源领域、远东地区开发等方面进行合作。     

The Russia–EU Energy Relationship: Getting it Right

The problems of Russia's energy sector, the part of the economy most broadly linked with Russia's prosperity and revived international influence, have been emphasized by the global financial crisis. Yet it remains an open question whether this, as well as various other factors, including the beginning of a genuine gas market and China's methodical advances in Central Asia, could encourage Russia to take the difficult decisions needed to make the energy sector more responsive and competitive. For its part, the EU has the potential to influence Russia, but if it continues to define itself by its divisions, it will not be able to use the influence it has gained. Without a strategic and coordinated approach, the EU is unlikely to be able to overcome its security dilemma and could find that the future is determined by other actors.     

论近代日本的国际秩序观及其实践

19世纪后半期,东亚国际秩序处于由前近代向近代过渡的转型时期.在东亚秩序转型中,包括了三个几乎同时进行的结构性转型.在这个过程中,日本充当了重要的角色.此间,日本对中朝的外交政策与其国际秩序观有着直接的关联.可以说近代东亚国际关系的演变在很大程度上就是日本借助欧洲条约体系对东亚既有秩序的破坏,向着有利于实现自己意愿的方向改组东亚原有的国际秩序,从而推动和实施其国际秩序思想的过程.     

黑龙江省同俄罗斯东部地区开展能源合作的对策与建议

俄罗斯经济的复苏离不开对西伯利亚及远东地区自然资源,尤其是能源资源的开发;中国黑龙江省利用与俄罗斯东部地区的地缘优势和传统经济联系,在能源领域积极开展经济技术合作,必将有利于中俄双方社会经济的发展;为促进能源合作的顺利开展,本文提出了７项具有应用价值的对策与建议。     

俄罗斯远东经济发展前景分析

俄罗斯远东地区是俄罗斯面向亚太的战略桥头堡,对俄罗斯在亚太地区的军事、政治、经济具有重要的影响。普京执政后,加强了对俄罗斯各联邦区的控制,远东地区经济进入了新的发展阶段。受地缘政治关系等因素的影响,投资不足问题一直是俄罗斯远东经济的"瓶颈"。预计俄罗斯仍将利用"能源牌"平衡与亚太近邻国家的关系。俄罗斯远东地区在这个前提下以资源开发为主线,如何最大限度地争取俄联邦的支持,努力发展与中国、日本、韩国等亚太国家的经贸关系,就成为决定经济发展前景的关键。     

俄罗斯东部能源发展战略评析

东西伯利亚和远东对于俄罗斯的整体发展具有十分重要的地缘政治和社会经济意义。2009年11月13日,俄联邦政府通过的《2030年前俄罗斯能源战略》对其东部地区给予了特别关注,俄能源部门发展的5个战略性倡议中有4项直接涉及东部能源产业的长远发展问题。作为世界经济增长速度最快的区域,亚太地区是最值得俄罗斯期待的能源出口市场,俄参与亚太能源合作的程度主要取决于其东部地区资源开发的潜力。从目前情况看,双方继续深化能源合作的意愿与现实条件均已具备。从长远看,随着俄东部地区资源开发的步伐加快,以及一系列通往亚太国家的能源基础设施草案的顺利实施,俄罗斯必将在亚太能源安全保障方面发挥自己应有的作用。     

俄罗斯远东对外经济联系及发展前景

俄罗斯远东有丰富的资源、当它与俄罗斯西部的经济联系出现屏障的时候、必须要改 变经济发展模式．寻求与东北亚及亚太地区一体化。从７０年代起远东就与日本西部建立了经济 联系。一直保持至今、但目前由于两国的领土问题制约了经济关系的发展。讨论和制定远东的长 期发展方案．是当前重要的任务。     

俄罗斯远东生活资料供给市场未来走势

近几年来,俄罗斯远东市场发生了重大变化,消费品供应形势明显好转,但是市场的繁荣在很大程度上是靠大量进口消费品带动的。今后远东发展的重点仍是原材料和能源工业,这是由现有产业结构的“超稳定性”所决定的。因此,远东农业、食品工业和轻工业发展滞后的局面难以根本改观,市场地产商品可供量与社会有支付能力的消费需求之间的矛盾不能得到缓解。俄罗斯在今后几年内将加入世界贸易组织。入世将使俄罗斯降低市场准入门槛,市场竞争更加激烈,同时也为中国消费品出口带来机遇和挑战。     

Security sector reform: bringing the private in

As the links between security and development have been increasingly recognized, Security Sector Reform (SSR) has become a central part of development policy. Following a traditional Weberian conception of the state, these programmes are almost exclusively focused on the public security sector, neglecting the extent to which people in developing countries have come to rely on private security providers for their day-to-day security needs. While the reform of public security institutions is undoubtedly important, this article argues that a strict public/private distinction is a poor guide to security sector reform. Focusing on Sierra Leone and Kenya, the article argues that ‘bringing the private in’ is crucial to a comprehensive understanding of the security situation in most countries and that any attempt to ensure better security for all must take account of private actors. Private security companies and their integration into SSR matter not simply in terms of the maintenance of law and order, but also in terms of who has access to security, and ultimately, for the legitimacy of social and political orders.     

中东变局与世界主要大国中东战略的调整——兼论中国的中东外交

中东地区历来是大国战略博弈的重点区域。自阿拉伯国家陷入群体性动荡以来,美国、欧洲、俄罗斯等大国或地区力量围绕中东变局纷纷进行政策与战略调整。美国中东战略调整的根本目标是既要避免类似伊拉克战争的深度卷入,又要保持对中东事务的主导权。欧盟尤其是法、英两国对中东变局的积极干预使欧洲对中东事务的影响明显增强,欧盟正力图确立统一的中东战略,但其内部分歧不容忽视。俄罗斯中东战略的核心特征是原则性与灵活性相结合的实用主义外交,并极力维护其地缘战略利益和能源利益。中国应进一步增强对中东战略地位的认识,冷静客观地认识中东变局对中国国际环境变化的影响,并在坚持原则的同时适度扩大对中东事务的参与。     

Democratization in Bosnia: The limits of civil society building strategies

For many commentators, the construction of civil society in East European states is considered a precondition for the development of consolidated democratic institutions. Nowhere is this more the case than within Bosnia‐Herzegovina, where ethnic and nationalist identification indicate a deeply politically segmented society. To challenge this segmentation international institutions are providing financial and technical support to a growing civil society sector based on non‐governmental organizations. Research into the civil society support work of the Democratization Branch of the Organization for Security and Co‐operation in Europe indicates that the predominantly middle‐class constituency of these groups reflects the extensive external international regulation of the new state under the Dayton Peace Agreement. However, the extension of autonomy and self‐government may well create more fruitful conditions for the growth of civil society alternatives.     

俄罗斯东部地区：日本石油进口战略的新视点

日本既是世界经济大国,也是世界能源消费大国和能源进口大国之一,长期以来日本的石油供给一直主要依赖中东地区。美国占领伊拉克后,中东地区将更加动荡,这将给日本石油稳定的供给带来极大的威胁,进一步开展对俄能源合作已是大势所趋。     

东亚货币金融合作机制及其特点研究

从1997年东亚金融危机爆发至今的约14年里,东亚的货币：金融合作经历了3个发展阶段。现今的东亚货币金融合作机制是在传承和发展原先的金融合作安排,并加入了新元素的基础上所形成的。一方面,原先的合作机制仍在发挥作用,并从“松散”和“非正式”的基础上向较为“紧密”和“正式”的方向发展,有的还扩大了规模并增强了功能。另一方面,新的合作机制不断涌现,并发挥着重要的作用。其中,以“10＋3”为核心的相关机制,取得了较大和具有实质性的进展。本文还讨论了东亚现有的货币金融合作机制的特点,并对东亚货币金融合作先于贸易投资合作的合理性进行了初步分析。     

日本环境产业的发展

环境产业是改善环境和保证经济社会可持续发展的物质技术条件,也是促进日本经济与环境协调发展和激活其地区活力的强大动力.目前,日本的环境产业已从少数产业部门扩展到几乎所有产业部门,未来将同汽车业和建筑业并驾齐驱,成为支撑日本经济发展的主导支柱产业之一.促进日本环境产业发展的主要因素是,强化环境法规的限制,推动经济政策的绿色化,完善企业的环境管理和发展绿色消费.     

Russia's economic and strategic interests in North-East Asia

  Since the middle of the 1990s and especially after Vladimir Putin assumed the presidency Russia started to pursue an active foreign policy in North East Asia, an area considered vital for Russian national political, economic and strategic interests. While continuing to use every available method to conduct this policy Moscow placed special emphasis on promoting economic cooperation with the neighboring states, not in the least because of the development needs of Siberia and the Russian Far East. The current trends on the world energy market as well as the growing energy requirements of Russia's neighbors help to make at this stage exploration of Russian rich energy resources in East Siberia and around the Sakhalin Island to be one of the most attractive areas of regional economic cooperation. Even though these developments help to meet some of the current Russian requirements in foreign investments and modern technologies Russia is clearly interested in extending the scope of regional cooperation to other areas as well. In particular, Russia is interested in promoting its industrial exports. Another prospective area of its cooperation with regional states may cover joint transport projects – from construction of international gas and oil pipelines to linking Russian and Korean railway systems.