Dutch disease and the Azerbaijan economy

The novelty of this study is that it empirically tests four hypotheses of the Dutch Disease in the Azerbaijan economy while systematically controls for other possible explanations of the observed processes over the period 2000–2007. The study concludes that an “absolute de-industrialization” has not taken place in Azerbaijan, rather the country suffers from a “relative de-industrialization” in the non-oil tradable sector. Additionally, the paper shows that the non-tradable sector has substantially expanded during the 2000–2007 period. Analysis also presents that the government expenditures have created a “spending effect”, which is more crucial than the “resource movement effect”. Furthermore, it was found that rapid increases in the wages and the non-tradable prices have led to appreciation of the real exchange rate in Azerbaijan. Finally, the study reveals that foreign direct investments inflow to the oil sector is harmful for non-oil exports and therefore, it contributes to deepening of resource, or oil, dependence. Findings in this paper support the view that to obtain a diversified economy with a long-term balanced growth development of the non-oil tradable sector should be of the major focus for the policymakers.     

The Most and the Least International: The City and the Countryside in Azerbaijan and Armenia from the Early 1960s to January 1990

Abstract

The essay examines the effects of Soviet nationalities policy on Armenians living in Baku, the capital of the Azerbaijani SSR, and on ethnic Azerbaijanis in Kyzyl-Shafag, an Azerbaijani village in the Armenian SSR. A series of interviews were conducted with members of these two communities to explore some of the results of Soviet nationalities policy. Although the residents of Baku emphasised the multinational character of the city, they nevertheless conceded that ethnicity played an important role in their lives, even at the level of everyday practices. The same also applies for the Azerbaijanis in the far less cosmopolitan Armenian countryside, where ethnic boundaries remained largely impenetrable. Soviet language, with its essentialist categories that separated people into internally homogeneous groups, could not have been more appropriate for this purpose.     

冷战后的世界秩序

冷战结束后 ,世界格局变换 ,全球化进程加快 ,使冷战后的世界政治表现出了明显的无序性。美国单边主义政策和追求单极霸权的战略 ,破坏了原有的国际合作体制 ,伊拉克战争更是表明了美国的“帝国”野心 ,这将使建立以联合国为核心的国际合作的世界新秩序变得更为艰难 ,但历史的方向不会改变     

第二次世界大战结束60周年与日中关系

一、2000年、50年、60年 中国朋友常说"2000年的友好,50年的战争".我想这是指日中两国以文化为中心的2000年友好交流史,以及从1894年的日清战争到1945年日本战败这50年的日本侵华战争.但很多的中国朋友不愿涉及战后的60年.     

Explaining Strategic Violence after Wars

This article aims to explain why strategic violence against targeted groups emerges after some civil wars but not others. It argues that when one side has captured the coercive apparatus of the state, and the potentially hostile losing side is less vulnerable to predation, the leaders of the victorious group can reward their domestic constituents and conduct in-group policing to prevent opportunistic violence. But when an armed group fails to achieve state capture and the losing side remains in a vulnerable position relative to its former enemies, neither side can credibly guarantee their domestic allies a share of the resources of the state or conduct effective in-group policing of potential extremists. Using Kosovo and East Timor as case studies, this article shows that in these cases, strategic violence is less a function of a concerted attempt to spoil a settlement than of the internal bargaining of new splinter groups.     

"卡特里娜"过后看美国

8月25日以来,一场罕见的飓风"卡特里娜"袭击了美国东南部沿海地区,所过之处房屋倒塌、工厂损毁、人员伤亡.尤其是29日之后,飓风登陆路易斯安那州,直击文化名城新奥尔良市,致使其周边堤坝溃决,全城80%的地域遭到灭顶之灾.截至目前,官方统计的风灾死亡人数已达883人,数十万人流离失所,直接经济损失高达1000亿美元以上,灾区最终重建费用可能需要3000亿美元."卡特里娜"风灾无疑将成为美国历史上损失最为惨重的自然灾害之一.除此之外,数万灾民被困于新奥尔良洪区达一周之久,他们呼天不应、叫地不灵的惨状和灾区一度秩序崩溃、犯罪横行的乱象更令已经历过"9·11"事件的美国民众震惊不已.     

三鹿事件之后的中国儿童保护立法

随着河北高院全案驳回田文华等人上诉维持原判裁定的做出,喧嚣一时的三鹿毒奶粉事件正在逐步淡出人们的视野,但留下的思考却不应就此结束。     

萨达姆身后的伊拉克

美国和伊拉克政府于去年12月30日晨,匆忙地对在战争中被美军掳获的伊拉克前总统萨达姆执行绞刑,企图以此来熄灭逊尼派反美武装的最后希望,稳定伊拉克局势,恢复和平,"翻开伊拉克的新一页".但是,事与愿违.他们在这一非常敏感的时候处决萨达姆并让刑场录相曝光,使伊拉克、阿拉伯北区乃至全世界穆斯林十分愤怒,反美浪潮一浪高过一浪,教派冲突更加频繁,伊拉克局势反而进一步混乱.