HOMICIDE,STRUCTURAL FACTORS,AND THE RACIAL INVARIANCE ASSUMPTION*

Structural theories in criminology generally assume that the effects of structural conditions on homicide are the same for all race-groups. However, previous homicide research testing this assumption contains methodological shortcomings and has produced inconsistent findings. Therefore, the validity of the “racial invariance assumption” remains highly questionable. Using 1990 data for 125 U.S. cities, this study addresses some of the limitations of previous research in an effort to provide a more definitive examination of race differences in the effects of important structural factors on homicide rates. Contrary to the expectations of the structural perspective, the results from this study reveal substantial and statistically significant race differences. Specifically, the associations between homicide and several measures of socio-economic deprivation (e.g., poverty, unemployment, income inequality, female-headed households, deprivation index) are found to be stronger among whites than blacks. A primary implication of these results is that the current versions of many structural theories need revision in order to account for observed race differences in the effects of structural factors and to explain fully the black-white gap in homicide rates.     

GANG HOMICIDE,DELINQUENCY, AND COMMUNITY*

Analysis of community-level data on community areas in Chicago substantiates two conceptual differences: the first. between gang crime and delinquency as community-level phenomena; and the second, between theoretical associations of each of the former to community-area patterns of social disorganization and poverty. One pattern is more common in Chicago's Hispanic communities; the other, in Chicago's black communities. Five measures of the quality of community life used are gang homicide rate, delinquency rate, unemployment rate, percentage living below the poverty level, and mortgage investment per dwelling. Identifying communities as white, black, Hispanic, or mixed and applying discriminant analysis reveal the racial-ethnic communities as distinct social worlds. Regression analyses of gang homicide and delinquency rates show that the two measures display very different patterns of association with other community characteristics. An analysis of the residual change score for gang homicide rate over two time periods indicates the relative stability of community patterns with poverty measures explaining much of the change in patterns. It is concluded that gang homicide rates and delinquency rates are ecologically distinct community problems. The distribution of gang homicide rates conforms to classic theories of social disorganization and poverty, and the distribution of delinquency rates is more generally associated with poverty.     

Poverty, Inequality, and City Homicide Rates

Messner's recent investigation of homicide and relative and absolute economic deprivation is replicated here, but cities rather than SMSA's and three years (1950, 1960, 1970) rather than one (1970) are considered. Because of tremendous intra-unit variation for SMSAs with respect to homicides and sociodemographic characteristics (an important variation that is masked when data are aggregated on a SMSA level), cities are a preferable unit of analysis in cross-sectional investigations of homicide. Where M e s m found a significant negative relationship between percentage of poverty (absolute deprivation) and homicides, I consistently find the opposite pattern as predicted. In both studies, however, there is only a slight and nonsignificant relationship between relative economic deprivation (income inequality) and homicides. Unlike Messner, however, I do not consider this finding surprising. At best, there is only a weak theoretical linkage between homicide and relative economic deprivation. Accordingly, the results of this investigation for both absolute and relative deprivation are neither "perplexing" nor do they warrant the "serious reconsideration of the linkages between poverty, inequality and the homicide rate" that Messner (1982: 112) calls for.     

Space matters: An analysis of poverty,poverty clustering,and violent crime

While numerous criminological theories emphasize the theoretical importance of the spatial distribution of poverty, few studies specifically examine the empirical relationship between the spatial clustering of high poverty areas and violent crime rates. In this analysis we examine the association between poverty clustering and violent crime rates across 236 cities. For each city we compute a poverty cluster score that measures the proportion of contiguous high poverty census tracts. We find little support for a direct relationship between the spatial clustering of high poverty tracts and murder, rape, robbery, and assault. However, variables that measure city disadvantage (e.g., poverty) interact with poverty clustering scores in the case of homicide rates. Specifically, disadvantage has a much stronger relationship to homicide in cities with high levels of poverty clustering. Such an interaction effect is strongly supported by the literature.     

ECONOMIC INEQUALITY AND LEVELS OF HOMICIDE: AN ANALYSIS OF URBAN NEIGHBORHOODS*

This paper presents an analysis of the relationship between levels of economic inequality and homicide rates for a sample of 26 neighborhoods in Manhattan, New York. It argues that neighborhoods are more appropriate units of analysis for studying inequality and homicide than are larger political and statistical units because neighborhoods are more likely to constitute meaningful frames of reference for social comparisons. The principle hypothesis is that a high degree of economic inequality in a neighborhood will give rise to high levels of relative deprivation and high rates of homicide. The results of a series of multiple regression analyses fail to support this hypothesis. The measure of economic inequality is weakly associated with the observed homicide rates. Similarly, the racial composition of Manhattan neighborhoods exhibits no significant association with levels of homicide, given statistical controls for other sociodemographic variables. Two neighborhood characteristics do emerge as significant predictors of homicide rates: the relative size of the poverty population and the percent divorced or separated. Homicide rates tend to be highest in those neighborhoods characterized by extreme poverty and pervasive marital dissolution.     

Specifying the Effect of Social Welfare Expenditures on Homicide and Suicide: A Cross-National,Longitudinal Examination of the Stream Analogy of Lethal Violence

This study is an extension and cross-national test of the Stream Analogy of Lethal Violence (SALV). The SALV is an integrated theory of homicide and suicide that hypothesizes a relationship between “socially patterned” sources of frustration and lethal violence. By drawing on the insights of General Strain Theory and Institutional Anomie Theory, this study extends the SALV by assessing the impact of “decommodification” on the lethal violence rate. Partial support is found for this modified version of the SALV, as lagged measures of social expenditures are negatively associated with total lethal violence. The findings of this study suggest that social welfare expenditures in OECD nations protect citizens from lethal violence while austerity measures may contribute to greater rates of violent death.     

A METHODOLOGICAL ADDITION TO THE CROSS‐NATIONAL EMPIRICAL LITERATURE ON SOCIAL STRUCTURE AND HOMICIDE: A FIRST TEST OF THE POVERTY‐HOMICIDE THESIS*

Dozens of cross‐national studies of homicide have been published in the last three decades. Although nearly all these studies test for an association between inequality and homicide, no studies test for a poverty—homicide association. This absence is disconcerting given that poverty is one of the most consistent predictors of area homicide rates in the abundant empirical literature on social structure and homicide in the United States. Using a sample that coincides closely with similar recent studies, applying a proxy for poverty (infant mortality) that is commonly employed in noncriminological cross‐national research, and controlling for several common covariates (including inequality), this study provides the first test of the poverty—homicide hypothesis at the cross‐national level. The results reveal a positive and significant association between a nation's level of poverty and its homicide rate. The findings also suggest that we may need to reassess the strong conclusions about an inequality—homicide association drawn from prior studies, as this relationship disappears when poverty is included in the model.     

Regional Differences in the Economic Correlates of the Urban Homicide Rate

This article examines regional differences in the economic correlates of the urban homicide rate. On the basis of cultural variations between the South and other parts of the country, the proportion of the population below the poverty line and the level of income inequality are hypothesized to have stronger positive effects on the homicide rate in nonsouthern than in southern cities. Regression results for a sample of 256 nonsouthern cities and a sample of 91 southern cities do not support the hypothesis for the measure of income inequality, however. The Gini coefficient of family income concentration has no significant effect in either region. In contrast, the results for the poverty measure are consistent with expectations. The proportion below the poverty line has a significant, positive effect on the homicide rate only in the nonsouthern sample. These findings suggest that the impact of economic deprivation on rates of violent crime is likely to vary appreciably depending on the general cultural context.     

A Cross-National Analysis of the Mediating Effect of Economic Deprivation on Crime

This study develops and tests a model of economic deprivation and crime using data from 52 nations for the years 1995–1999. The model, centering on the role of absolute and relative economic deprivation in mediating crime, predicts that social change causes variation in economic deprivation, which, in turn, leads to variation in crime rates. The results show that the relative deprivation variable, income inequality, mediates a large portion of the effects of two social change variables, population growth and urbanization, on homicide, while one of the absolute deprivation variables, GDP, transmits a great part of the effects of social change variables on theft. Both social change variables were found to have a weak direct connection to homicide and theft rates. Implications for policy and future research are discussed.     

Poverty, Inequality, and the Urban Homicide Rate: Some Unexpected Findings

The purpose of this article is to report findings concerning the relationship between poverty, inequality, and the homicide rate for a sample of 204 SMSAs. A measure of family income inequality exhibits a moderate zero order correlation with the homicide rate, but the effect becomes insignificant in the regression analysis. A second economic measure, that of the size of the poverty population, also exhibits a moderate zero order correlation with the homicide rate, but the partial effect is significant and the sign is quite unexpectedly negative. Additional unexpected results include strong partial effects for measures of Southern regional and racial composition. These findings suggest the need for reconsideration of the role of economic and perhaps subcultural factors in the explanation of urban homicide.     

ECONOMIC DEPRIVATION AND CHANGES IN HOMICIDE ARREST RATES FOR WHITE AND BLACK YOUTHS, 1967–1998: A NATIONAL TIME‐SERIES ANALYSIS*

Using time‐series techniques with national data for 1967–98, we model the effects on changes in age‐race‐specific arrest rates of changes in indicators of economic deprivation. A measure of child poverty is positively related to juvenile arrest rates for both races, whereas changing unemployment (lagged) yields a surprising negative effect on youth offending. Measures of intraracial income inequality are also associated with changes in juvenile arrest rates, but the effects differ by race. Between‐race inequality is unrelated to changes in arrest rates for both races. Our general conclusion is that fluctuations in juvenile homicide offending over recent decades can be understood, at least in part, with reference to the macro‐economic environment confronting young people and their families.     

Social support, ethnic heterogeneity, and homicide: A cross-national approach

This study examined the manner that social support theory accounts for the dynamic between social support, ethnic heterogeneity, and homicide at the cross-national level. Using five alternative measures of social support, the findings indicated that social support influences homicide, but these effects are somewhat contingent on the type or dimension of social support provided. Additionally, the analyses performed here revealed that social support and ethnic heterogeneity interact to influence rates of homicide. Taken together, these findings revealed that social support theory provides a useful foundation for exploring the factors that influence homicide at the cross-national level.     

INCOME INEQUALITY AND HOMICIDE RATES: CROSS-NATIONAL DATA AND CRIMINOLOGICAL THEORIES

Previous studies have identified but failed to explain satisfactorily the positive relationship between income inequality and homicide rates. This paper proposes an explanation based on the concept of relative deprivation, but also reviews the criminological literature in a search for other theoretically relevant variables. After assessing problems of sampling and measurement, and using a considerably larger sample than used in previous studies, multiple regression analyses reveal positive net effects of both inequality and population growth (reflecting a higher proportion of young people) on homicide rates. Further analyses show that the effects of inequality on homicide are more pronounced in more democratic nations, a finding supporting the relative deprivation explanation. Income inequality also has stronger effects in more densely populated countries, in wealthier nations, and in countries with larger internal security forces.     

POLICING,DRUGS, AND THE HOMICIDE DECLINE IN NEW YORK CITY IN THE 1990s*

This research reassesses the role of policing and drugs in the sharp homicide decline in New York City in the 1990s. Drawing on theoretical arguments about “broken windows” policing and lethal violence associated with the diffusion of crack cocaine, we estimate the effects of measures of misdemeanor arrests and cocaine prevalence on homicide rates with pooled, cross‐sectional time‐series data for 74 New York City precincts over the 1990–1999 period. The results of mixed regression models reveal a significant negative effect of changes in misdemeanor arrests and a significant positive effect of changes in cocaine prevalence on changes in total homicide rates. Additional analyses of homicide disaggregated by weapon indicate that the effects of misdemeanor arrests and cocaine prevalence emerge for gun‐related but not for non‐gun‐related homicides. Overall, the research generally supports influential interpretations of the homicide decline in New York City but also raises questions about underlying mechanisms that warrant more inquiry in future research.     

POPULATION DIVERSITY AND CROSS-NATIONAL HOMICIDE: THE EFFECTS OF INEQUALITY AND HETEROGENEITY*

This study examines the impact of income inequality and ethnic heterogeneity on homicide rates for a sample of 32 nations. The results of the analyses indicate that vertical social direrentiation, as measured by income inequality, and horizontal differentiation, as indexed by ethnic heterogeneity, have signijicant main effects on cross-national homicide. Additionally, evidence is presented suggesting an interaction effect on inequaliry and heterogeneity on homicide. It appears that increased ethnic heterogeneity exacerbates the impact of income inequality on homicide rates.     

THE STRUCTURAL COVARIATES OF URBAN HOMICIDE: REASSESSING THE IMPACT OF INCOME INEQUALITY AND POVERTY IN THE POST-REAGAN ERA*

Numerous studies have explored the relationship between rates of homicide and income inequality and poverty. However, a general consensus on the theoretical and empirical connections among these variables has yet to be reached. This article reports the findings of a city-level analysis of this relationship, using 1990 data for the 190 largest cities in the United States. In order to address several methodological and theoretical concerns in prior literature, three separate measures of inequality and three categories of disaggregated homicide rates are analyzed. The results suggest that both inequality and poverty have significant and independent positive effects on rates of homicide in U.S. cities following the largest increase in the economic gap between rich and poor in our nation's history.     

POVERTY, INCOME INEQUALITY, AND COMMUNITY CRIME RATES

This paper examines the relationship between crime rates and aggregate economic conditions for 57 small social areas. The principal analyses address a continuing controversy—are community crime rates associated with absolute poverty, relative poverty (i.e., income inequality), or both. Using victimization data from 57 small residential neighborhoods, the analyses examine the association between absolute and relative poverty and rates of violent crime and burglary. The findings indicate that absolute poverty is more strongly associated with neighborhood crime rates, although the relationship is conditional on the type of crime considered. The implications of the findings are discussed within a perspective of community social control.     

Structural correlates of female homicide: A cross-national analysis

The present study went beyond previous cross-national homicide research, which has largely focused on combined (male and female) rates of homicide offending, by using gender-disaggregated homicide arrest figures. The study included controls for the clearance rate and the percentage of homicides that were attempts, and included data for forty-eight countries across multiple levels of development. The author compared the effects of development/modernization and opportunity on female homicide rates to their effects on male homicide rates. Results indicated that, overall, structural predictors had very similar effects on male and female homicide rates. Both rates were lower in countries with a higher gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, and neither male nor female homicide rates were related to urbanization. Countries with a higher number of people per household had a lower rate of both male and female homicide offending; however, this relationship only held when percent young was excluded from the model.     

VIOLENT DELINQUENTS AND URBAN YOUTHS*

Violent juvenile crime is disproportionately concentrated in urban neighborhoods, and accordingly an understanding of the sources of serious delinquency is con founded by components of urbanism. These milieus usually have high rates of absolute poverty and relative economic deprivation, as well as weak social institutions. The persistent findings of delinquent peer contributions to delinquency have yet to be tested under conditions where social class and milieu effects are controlled. There is little empirical evidence to determine how adolescents in high-crime neighborhoods avoid delinquency despite frequent contact with delinquent peers. The differences between violent delinquents and other youths from comparable neighborhoods are little understood. This study contrasts a sample of chronically violent male juvenile offenders with the general male adolescent population (students and school dropouts) from inner-city neighborhoods in four cities. Violent delinquents differ from other male adolescents in inner cities in their attachments to school, their perceptions of school safety, their associations with officially delinquent peers, their perceptions of weak maternal authority, and the extent to which they have been victims of crime. Peer delinquency and drug“problems” predict the prevalence of three delinquency offense types for both violent offenders and neighborhood youths. Among violent delinquents, there appear to be different explanatory patterns, with one type better described by internal controls (locus of control), a developmental measure. Overall, there is strong support for integrated theory including control and learning components, and similar associations exist among inner-city youths as in the general adolescent male population. Despite the generally elevated rates of delinquency in inner cities, the explanations of serious and violent delinquency appear the same when subjects are sampled at the extremes of the distribution of behavior.     

IMMIGRATION AND CRIME IN AN ERA OF TRANSFORMATION: A LONGITUDINAL ANALYSIS OF HOMICIDES IN SAN DIEGO NEIGHBORHOODS, 1980–2000*

Emerging research associated with the “immigration revitalization” perspective suggests that immigration has been labeled inaccurately as a cause of crime in contemporary society. In fact, crime seems to be unexpectedly low in many communities that exhibit high levels of the following classic indicators of social disorganization: residential instability, ethnic heterogeneity, and immigration. But virtually all research conducted to date has been cross-sectional in nature and therefore unable to demonstrate how the relationship between immigration and crime might covary over time. This limitation is significant, especially because current versions of social disorganization theory posit a dynamic relationship between structural factors and crime that unfolds over time. The current study addresses this issue by exploring the effects of immigration on neighborhood-level homicide trends in the city of San Diego, California, using a combination of racially/ethnically disaggregated homicide victim data and community structural indicators collected for three decennial census periods. Consistent with the revitalization thesis, results show that the increased size of the foreign-born population reduces lethal violence over time. Specifically, we find that neighborhoods with a larger share of immigrants have fewer total, non-Latino White, and Latino homicide victims. More broadly, our findings suggest that social disorganization in heavily immigrant cities might be largely a function of economic deprivation rather than forms of “neighborhood” or “system” stability.