Terrorist Decision Making and the Deterrence Problem

An ongoing debate among policymakers and terrorism scholars concerns the effectiveness of deterrence as a counterterrorism tool. Absent from the debate is a discussion of the complex nature of terrorist decision making. Decisions are made at varying levels in a terrorist organization, often by actors having different motives, resulting in behavior that is not always fully rational. This article identifies several circumstances when terrorist behavior is not the product of an entirely unitary, rational decision-making process, and therefore highlights when deterrence policies will be least effective. It concludes with some policy implications for understanding when deterrence policies are most likely to succeed and how to address terrorism in other situations.     

Politicians and Interactive Decision Making: Institutional Spoilsports or Playmakers

In recent years interactive decision making has become quite popular in The Netherlands, especially at the level of local government. It involves new forms of participation of citizens, consumers of public services and interest groups in the process of policy formation. Workshops, panels, internet discussions and a lot of other techniques are used to arrive at innovative and supported solutions for existing problems. The ambitions are high: these new forms of participation should result in better government both in the sense of providing better policies, but also in bridging the democratic gap between local government and citizens. However, these new forms of participation in local government are not without problems. Recent experiences suggest that one of the major problems is the challenge interactive decision making constitutes for the existing practice of representative politics. On the basis of two cases — the decision-making process concerning the expansion of the Rotterdam Harbour and the discussion about a new administrative structure for the Rotterdam region — this article illustrates that one of the barriers that stands in the way of the success of such processes is the ambiguous attitude of elected politicians. Although politicians often initiate interactive decision-making processes, they do not actively support these processes when they are in progress. The outcomes of interactive decision-making progress are often not used in the formal political procedures that follow. Because elected politicians fear that these new forms of participation threaten their political primacy, they find it hard to play a constructive role in these processes.     

Public-Sector Reform: Employment Security and Quality of Decision Making in the Australian Taxation Office

This article examines the impact of structural reforms and industrial relations changes on the employment security and decision behaviors of middle-level managers in the Australian Taxation Office (ATO). This article is based on an empirical study using focus group and survey data that investigated how structural change and public-sector reforms substantially altered the employment environment. This research reveals that the ATO environment can be characterized by low morale, risk aversion, fear, and distrust brought about, in part, by employment insecurity. Where middle managers perceived organizational threats to their employment security, they engaged in self-protective “survivor” behaviors even when no such threats to their employment security existed. The article concludes that a substantial number of middle-level managers, survivors of years of restructuring, downsizing, and organizational change, were unlikely to display high-quality decision-making behaviors.     

YES PM: Years of Experience in Strategies for Peace Making

From the signing of the Oslo Peace Accords in September 2000 to the eruption of Al Aqsa intifada in September 2000, the international community allocated an estimated $20–25 million for people-to-people (P2P) projects. Since September 2000, almost all P2P projects came to a halt. Many people have asked why this had to happen? Why did the P2P projects cease to work when they were needed the most? Why did the P2P projects fail to produce the desired goals? How could P2P projects have greater impact? Why are some activities continuing, while others have ceased? This article will attempt to deal with these questions. It is based on a research project that involved Israeli and Palestinian non-governmental organizations (NGOs) and Civil Society institutions; Israeli, Palestinian, and international academics; and other expert conflict resolution and conflict prevention practitioners. A joint team of Israeli and Palestinian researchers was appointed to conduct a comprehensive assessment of the P2P process; two workshops were held to conduct subjective analyses of the P2P process from its start until today. An interactive web site was also produced, and some 40 interviews were conducted with initiators and implementers of P2P projects. We present here the findings of this study.     

Stalin's Great Terror and the Asian Nexus

Stalin's Great Terror of 1937–1938 did not stop at the Soviet borders: under Moscow's explicit instructions, it extended to Asia, particularly to the People's Republic of Mongolia and to Xinjiang or Chinese Turkestan. More people proportionately suffered from the Terror in Mongolia than in the Soviet Union. Stalin's terror operations in the Asiatic lands were implicitly directed against Japan, the main competitor for influence in the region.     

Remembering and forgetting: the state policy of memorializing Stalin's repression in post-Soviet Kazakhstan

The general perception of Western analysts and observers is that the nation-states created as a result of the breakup of the Soviet Union all treat the memory of the dark, repressive aspects of the Stalinist regime in public spaces as a symbolic element in the creation of a new post-Soviet identity [Denison, Michael. 2009. “The Art of the Impossible: Political Symbolism, and the Creation of National Identity and Collective Memory in Post-Soviet Turkmenistan.” Europe-Asia Studies 61 (7): 1167–1187]. We argue that the government of Kazakhstan employs non-nationalistic discourse in its treatment of Stalinist victims’ commemoration in a variety of forms, through the creation of modern memorial complexes at the sites of horrific Soviet activity (mass burial places, labor camps, and detention centers), purpose-built museum exhibitions, and the commemorative speeches of its president and other officials. Kazakhstan's strategy in commemorating its Soviet past is designed to highlight the inclusiveness of repression on all peoples living in its territory at that time, not just Kazakhs, thereby assisting in bringing together its multinational and multiethnic society. Thus, the official stance treats this discourse as an important symbolic source of shaping the collective memory of the nation, based on “a general civil identity without prioritizing one ethnic group over another – a national unity, founded on the recognition of a common system of values and principles for all citizens” [Shakirova, Svetlana. 2012. “Letters to Nazarbaev: Kazakhstan's Intellectuals Debate National Identity.” February 7. Accessed July 28, 2015. http://postsovietpost.stanford.edu/discussion/letters-nazarbaev-kazakhstans-intellectuals-debate-national-identity].     

Conceptualizing the Landscape of Decision Making for Complex Problem Solving

Complex problem resolution often involves the need for a pragmatic integration of knowledge from stakeholders with competing epistemic claims. The decision-making process regarding complex problem resolution is characterized by four basic sources of knowledge: disciplines, societies, organizations, and individuals. From the perspective of the public administration, we conceptualize the structure of the interactions between the disciplines and other sources of knowledge potentially relevant to the resolution of a public problem. To aid this exercise we examine a series of cases that we believe represent relevant aspects of complex problem resolution. We describe these basic interactions as collaborative, agnostic, or adversarial. This is a reorientation to the knowledge at play in the problem at hand. The study of public administration is well suited as a body of knowledge to address complex problems because it has a rich history of cooperation with other disciplines, practitioners, and stakeholders in the public.     

From Chaos To Patterns Of Understanding: Reflections On The Dynamics Of Effective Government Decision Making

Like other liberal-democratic governments, Australia has been going through a process of dramatic change in political and administrative structures and processes. There has been the well-documented shift from controlling inputs to managing for results which has resulted in the desired enhancement of executive government's responsibility and accountability for outcomes. A clear understanding of the evolving process of cabinet decision making points the way ahead to the next phase of reform. What lies ahead could, indeed, be more revolutionary than what has been achieved to date. Weber's dynamic concept of authority and domination, when understood as Weber himself used it, can tell one much about change and future possible evolution. It helps, heuristically, to indicate that government decision-making processes have already evolved to a sophisticated level. However, there is still much development that should be undertaken to maintain the quality of decision making. For instance, the move to small policy-advising departments and separated administrative programme-delivery agencies could be seen as a natural evolution and quite predictable. Good governance relies much on attaining a balance, in Weber's terms, between the ethics of intention (means) and the ethics of responsibility (ends). Together, they make the 'true man' who can have a 'vocation of politics' says Weber – but the 'true man' is hard to find. What is needed, therefore, are decision-making processes that are good at drawing out this balance. Well-established patterns of social action, encapsulated in Weber's sociology and typographically oriented hermeneutics, can help identify how this could be achieved. For instance, when one understands Weber's ideal types of authority structure as the core of a comprehensive conceptual model with constant interplay and movement over time, one can get a hint of how government decision making could be further enhanced.