印度的南亚战略及其对“一带一路”国际合作的影响

近年来,中印作为两个正在崛起的相互毗邻的大国,都提出了许多新的发展战略。中国提出"一带一路"倡议,印度莫迪政府提出了"季风计划"等战略,但中印彼此的战略对接存在严重问题,影响了双边友好合作关系的发展。特别是2017年中印边界"洞朗对峙"不仅引起世界广泛关注,而且使双边关系出现倒退,并严重影响了"一带一路"国际合作在南亚地区的推进。未来,中印双方需要站在更高的战略高度进行友好合作,才能更好促进互利共赢、共同发展。     

我看印度国庆阅兵

近年来,中国和印度这两个发展中大国,也是亚洲的近邻,越来越认识到改善和发展两国关系的重要性,双方在政治、经贸、文化等方面的合作逐步升温.2006年是两国政府确定的"中印友好年",为了推动今年的双边政党交往及两国关系,1月22-27日,中联部工作小组一行4人对印度首都新德里进行了访问.恰逢印度共和国日,使我们亲身体会了邻邦独具特色的国庆庆典.     

龙象握手:新世纪的中印关系--解读《中印联合声明》

2005年4月9日至12日,应印度共和国总理曼莫汉.辛格的邀请,温家宝总理对印度进行了正式访问.双方一致认为,中国总理此次访问取得了圆满成功,标志着中印关系提升到新的水平,揭开了两国友好合作的新篇章.国际舆论对中国领导人访印以及中印双方达成的一系列共识给予高度评价,普遍认为中国和印度这两个人口总和占世界总人口40%的发展中大国,如果能够携手发展,互利合作,将对未来的世界经济格局乃至整个国际关系格局产生重要影响.西方媒体更形象地把中印两国在新世纪的合作称作"中国龙"与"印度象"的握手,惊呼两者合作的能量不可小视.     

中印经济互利发展的机遇与挑战

中国提出并实施"一带一路"倡议为中印经济互利发展提供了重大机遇,然而印度对"一带一路"倡议采取的疑惧抵制姿态成为当前中印关系面临的现实挑战。中方需要开放各种渠道,耐心等待印方对这种机遇的再认识、再参与;中印增进共识的沟通渠道是多样的、畅通的,中印首脑定期互访、多边会晤是最为重要的沟通方式,中印首脑多边会晤四大常设平台可以发挥多边沟通作用、促进互利发展;在发展战略的契合与对接、金融机构建设与货币互认兑换、孟中印缅经济走廊建设方案研讨与高铁项目合作等方面,中印发展伙伴关系已经取得不少共识与成果,中印经济互利发展不是从零起步,而是扩大战果。遭遇暂时困难的中印关系,在文明交流、互鉴与共存的东方理念引领下,可以抓住"一带一路"倡议提供的历史机遇,实现相互理解、尊重与信任,实现经济互利发展,进而促进亚欧大陆大联通、推动亚洲世纪大发展。     

中印边界问题及谈判僵局的政治文化解读

边界问题是中印关系中棘手的问题,至今仍是制约双方关系进一步发展的瓶颈,和平谈判解决的进展甚微。从社会制度差异、地缘利益冲突、政治经济竞争等层面探究这一问题十分必要,但从政治文化维度解读,将裨益于我们对两国边界问题及谈判僵局的深刻理解。中印边界之争,表面上是两国领土主权之争,但牵涉的是两国民众心灵深处的政治文化认知差异,这些差异上升到国家认同的层面,使两国关系受到重大影响。在新时期,中印双方应加强沟通和理解,只有解决了"信任赤字"和"理解赤字"问题,才可能在边界问题谈判解决方面有所作为。     

“一带一路”背景下中印两国“认同”利益的建构分析

中印两国拥有广泛的"认同"利益:对和平与安全的认同、对发展与稳定的认同等。中印应以上述"认同"为基础,通过双边及多边互动增进互信,建构"更加紧密的发展伙伴"、"引领增长的合作伙伴"、"战略协作的全球伙伴"关系。同时,以"三个伙伴"为"身份"基础,明确和拓展双方的共同利益,以利益为导向,以"五通"为路径,共同建设"一带一路",对接两国发展战略,实现国家层面的繁荣发展、双边层面的互信共赢、国际及地区层面的公正有序,最终建构中印"命运共同体"。     

和睦相处增大共识--中印两国关系发展的新阶段

中印两国关系是中国发展周边国家关系中的重要关系之一.中印两国自建交以来,共同倡导了和平共处五项原则,缔结了友好关系,也经受了暂时的冲突和一度的挫折,并在关系恢复中走向成熟.时至今日,中印两国关系又有着新的发展合作的空间与领域更加广阔,在边界问题上双方已进行了三轮会晤,以期达成基本满意的方案.印度新政府继续推动中印两国长期建设性合作伙伴关系不断地发展,两国关系进入成熟与全面发展的新阶段.     

“一带一路”与印度“季风计划”的战略对接研究

在"一带一路"的建设过程中,中国一直努力实现自身发展战略与亚洲区域合作及他国发展战略的有效对接。但在"一带一路"辐射区域中,印度是唯一对中方邀请"态度保留"、"犹豫不决"的大国。与此同时,印度也在酝酿和发展以自身为核心的"季风计划",推进环印度洋地区合作。因此,"季风计划"往往被解读为针对中国"一带一路"倡议的反制措施。实际上,"一带一路"倡议与"季风计划"在结构和本质上并不具有天然的对抗性,相反能实现相互对接甚至融合。通过概念对接、功能对接和文化对接,中印之间能够规避冲突、凝聚共识、开拓合作。中印战略对接是以非零和的方式建构非对抗性的新型战略合作模式。这一合作模式的建立不仅有利于"一带一路"建设的顺利推进,也将推动地区经济合作程度的深化。     

重温友谊共展未来——记索尼娅·甘地夫人访华

应中国共产党邀请,印度国大党主席、执政的团结进步联盟主席索尼娅·甘地夫人一行于2007年10月25日至29日访华.这不仅是世界上两个最大发展中国家执政党间的友好交往,也是一次联系过去、关乎当前、开启未来的访问,在中印两国和两国人民的交流中有着"里程碑般的意义".     

“一带一路”倡议下中印能源合作前景浅析

<正>在以无政府状态为基本特征的国际政治舞台上,大国间围绕国家利益竞争、合作与冲突属常态。中印同为能源消费和进口大国,能源竞争不可避免,而平衡竞争与合作关系更显得十分重要。"一带一路"倡议对实现中印能源基础设施互联互通意义重大,同时也从优化能源合作环境、深化能源合作层次、拓展能源合作范围、推动能源合作制度化等方面为加强中印能源合作开辟了新机遇。中印能源安全问题中印同属亚洲两个极具世界影响     

Power and transformational and transactional leadership in public and private organizations

Ten public and 35 private organizations located in Central New York State participated in a university- sponsored research project to study the effects of organizational characteristics upon types of leadership (transformational/transactional) and power demonstrated by supervisors. Public sector organizations in which managers had low control over rewards were compared to private sector organizations in which managers had high control over rewards.

Followers perceived public sector supervisors as more inspirational by their followers and they used more active management-by-exception behavior than those in private organizations. Private sector supervisors had more reward, legitimate and coercive power than supervisors in public sector organizations.     

Natural Resources and Small Island Economies: Mauritius and Trinidad and Tobago

Abstract

Historically, small economies, especially resource-rich ones, underperformed on average relative to their larger counterparts. Small island economies appear still more disadvantaged due to remoteness from both markets and agglomeration economies. Yet a comparison of two small island economies with similar initial conditions other than their mineral endowment suggests that policy outweighs size, isolation and resource endowment in determining economic performance. Resource-poor Mauritius adopted an unfashionable policy of export manufacturing that systematically eliminated surplus labour, which drove economic diversification that sustained rapid GDP growth and political maturation. Like most resource-rich economies, Trinidad and Tobago pursued policies that absorbed rent too rapidly, which impeded diversification and created an illusory prosperity vulnerable to collapse.     

Country size and economic growth and development

This paper attempts to provide limited empirical evidence on the nature of the relationship between country size and rates of economic growth and levels of economic development, and on the possible effects of trade concentration and dependence on trade on this relationship. It suggests that there is no discernible association between country size and economic development, nor between country size and economic growth, and that neither the dependence on trade of small countries nor their commodity and geographic export concentration are necessarily important factors in economic growth and economic development.     

Russian stereotypes and myths of Ukraine and Ukrainians and why Novorossiya failed

This article discusses two inter-related issues. Firstly, the factors lying behind Russia's fervent belief that its Novorossiya (New Russia) project, aimed to bring back to Russia eight oblasts of Donetsk, Luhansk, Kharkiv, Dnipro, Zaporizhhya, Odesa, Mykolayiv, and Kherson in eastern and southern Ukraine and launched during the 2014 “Russian Spring,” would be successful. Russian identity misunderstood, and continues to misunderstand, Ukraine and Ukrainians through stereotypes and myths of Ukraine as an “artificial state” and Ukraine's Russian speakers as “fraternal brothers” and Russians and Ukrainians as “one people” (odin narod). Secondly, why Ukrainian national identity was different than these Russian stereotypes and myths and how this led to the failure of the Novorossiya project. Russian stereotypes and myths of Ukraine and Ukrainians came face to face with the reality of Russian-speaking Ukrainian patriotism and their low support for the Russkij Mir (Russian World). The article compares Russian stereotypes and myths of Ukraine and Ukrainians with how Ukrainians see themselves to explain the roots of the 2014 crisis, “Russian Spring,” and failure of Russian President Vladimir Putin's Novorossiya project.     

Earnings and ethnicity in Trinidad and Tobago

This study employs 1993 Continuous Sample Survey of the Population (CSSP) data for Trinidad and Tobago to investigate the determinants of earnings by ethnicity. The data, organised into three ethnic groupings, reveal lower levels of remuneration in the labour market for Africans and Indians than for individuals of other ethnicities taken as a whole. While the larger portion of the earnings differentials generally appears to be explained by ethnic differences in characteristics valued by the labour market, Africans and Indians would benefit substantially if they were to receive the same rates of remuneration for their educational endowments as workers of other ethnicities in the Trinidad and Tobago labour market. Notwithstanding Indians’ lowest average earnings, Africans appear more likely to be discriminated against.     

现代化与未成年人犯罪

未成人犯罪随着现代化的发展而发展，这可以说是一种国际现象。在现代化进程中，我国未成年人犯罪大量增多的原因在于：未成年人生理、心理发展不平衡，家庭教育存在缺失，学校教育存在不足，社会上存在着很多消极因素。在现代化进程中，必须采取有效对策，控制未成年人犯罪增多，才能保障未成年人健康成长。     

Displacement and Testimony: Recent History and the Study of Exile and Post-exile

This article analyzes the testimonial literature of Latin American exile within the wider framework of studies of exile and post-exile. It claims that testimonies have an important role in providing access to the multiple and reflexive voices of exiles and expatriates, which are relevant to the reconstruction of the recent history of Latin America. Their relevance lies in enabling analysis to move beyond the heroic, Byronic vision of exile towards a less idealistic yet more intimate understanding of the gains and losses of territorial displacement, as well as the tensions, ambiguities, and conflicts developing within the communities of exiles, as they face new challenges. Exile testimonies also allow research to trace the development of a broader sense of identity extending beyond territorial borders and expressed in the awareness of being part of national Diasporas and, for many, also a Latin American transnational consciousness.     

“两抢”犯罪的趋势与防控

根据最近16年的统计数据，我国“两抢”犯罪总体呈上升态势，且出现多方面的特点。当前，影响“两抢”犯罪变化趋势的因素主要有：社会管理机制完善的程度、社会成员之间收入的差距、“两抢”犯罪主体特点、社会成员的防范意识以及公安机关的防控机制等。预防“两抢”犯罪需要整个社会尤其是公安机关的共同努力。     

Government and Corruption: Scylla and Charybdis

Using public sector employment and corruption perception data for 72 countries across the world, this article demonstrates that despite common notion countries with “smaller” governments do not tend to have lower corruption. Under general assumptions, one can demonstrate that there is an optimal size of public sector employment corresponding to the highest capital intensity. The model has several implications: lower optimal sizes of governments for labor intensive countries and higher sizes for capital intensive ones, possibility to reduce corruption paying a cost of suboptimal output, and a higher “price” of an oversized government for labor intensive countries.