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This essay presents an indication of the major research questions addressed in the literature of social psychology related to conflict resolution, as well as a historical perspective to see what progress has been made in this area. Highlighted at the conclusion of a section on contemporary themes in conflict studies is the author's consideration of what we know (and need to know) about conflict resolution and overcoming oppression. The author also offers an assessment of the progress thus far in the methodological, conceptual, empirical, and technological domains in the social psychological study of conflict.  相似文献   

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《国际相互影响》2012,38(1):60-85
Since general deterrence necessarily precedes immediate deterrence, the analysis of general deterrence is more fundamental to an understanding of international conflict than is an analysis of immediate deterrence. Nonetheless, despite a few exceptions, the quantitative literature has ignored the subject of general deterrence, focusing almost exclusively on situations of immediate deterrence. My purpose in this essay is to fill this evidentiary gap by subjecting a recently developed theory of general deterrence—Perfect Deterrence Theory—to a systematic test by examining general deterrence from 1816–2000. The results indicate that the predictions of perfect deterrence theory are strongly supported by the empirical record.  相似文献   

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《国际相互影响》2012,38(4):375-381

This paper first presents an overview of data on 390 international crises, which incorporate 826 foreign policy crises, from the end of 1918 to the end of 1988.

A set of crisis profiles is then constructed for the two superpowers of the post‐World War II era, and for three regional systems, Africa, Asia and the Middle East. The data on international crises are presented in terms of a common format for the regional profiles, with slight modifications for the superpowers, in order to facilitate comparisons: time and space; duration; onset; threat; behavior; severity of violence; US/USSR activity; global organization involvement; and outcome. Within these categories, distributions are noted for each of the polarity structures—multipolarity (1918–39), bipolarity (1945–62), and polycentrism (1963–1988). Thereafter, comparisons are made between US and USSR crises (after World War II), and among the three regional profiles.

The central thrust of the findings from these profiles is clear: they focus attention on the dual characteristics of twentieth century crises, their pervasiveness and diversity. These traits, in turn, make much more difficult the task of constructing a theory that provides a systematic explanation of interstate crisis from onset to termination. Complex reality imposes an intolerable burden on the search for necessary and sufficient conditions of crisis. In positive terms, it leads to a shift in focus, from ‘necessary and sufficient’ to the “most likely” conditions as the most credible path to theory.  相似文献   

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The author reviews the insights of four expert practitioners of international conflict resolution, pointing out a common theme that signals a major shift in the way we conduct and conceive of international conflict intervention. In addition to traditional top-down interventions, leading conflict resolution practitioners are advocating a bottom-up approach, a complementary effort that includes development of conflict resolution potential among the parties themselves, without external imposition. This increased emphasis on the kinds of structures, understanding, and relationships that help to transform international conflict situations reflects the impact the developing field of conflict studies has had on practice.  相似文献   

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To maintain economical, social and environmentaldevelopment in a harmonious wayis the basic condi-tions for realizing the sustainable advancement ofmankind. And to eliminate the poverty and back-wardness is the keytask for pushingforward the sus-tainable development. China is the largest develop-ingcountry in the world and its population takes upabout 22 % ofthe total population ofthe world. In thepast fairly long period of time, China has been per-plexed by poverty due to many reasons. The s…  相似文献   

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爱德华·威尔莫特·布莱登堪称最早坚信非洲有确凿历史和灿烂文化的近代黑人知识分子,也是最先在学术上揭示和论证非洲人对世界历史与人类文明作出过突出贡献的黑人知识分子。布莱登的思想所涉及的领域十分广泛。布莱登历史哲学的内涵由四部分内容构成非洲是人类文明的摇篮,曾以古老的埃塞俄比亚人和灿烂的古埃及文明彪炳于世界历史;非洲参与了人类精神的发展,虽然基督教和伊斯兰教起源于亚洲,但“北非是抚育了这些无助的婴儿的摇篮”;非洲不仅参与了“新大陆”的开发,也为“旧大陆”的工业发展提供了不可或缺的资源;非洲有辉煌的历史,且有光明的未来。  相似文献   

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China’s continued high economic growth hasdrawn increasing attention of the world. However,it has received very different evaluations, withthe most representative and conflicting ones being“China threat theory”or “China harm theory”vs.“China opportu  相似文献   

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This analysis highlights the role of sport—particularly football—in nation-building. Using netnographic techniques, it focuses on the Palestinian struggle for self-determination and nationhood through the efforts of the Palestinian Football Association [PFA] to challenge Israeli hegemony and function independently of Israeli surveillance in a sovereign Palestinian nation-state. It explains how the PFA has attempted to harness its status, manifested in its Fédération Internationale de Football Association [FIFA] membership, to threaten Israel’s own FIFA membership and its international image. The value of this analysis stems from the way it embeds the empirical narrative within a broader international relations analytical/theoretical framework that problematises the central concept of “soft power” that has predominated the current “sports and international relations” literature.  相似文献   

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Abstract

Focusing on the Euro-Atlantic conflict over the Iraq war operation in early 2003 (the ‘European Iraq conflict’), the purpose of the present article is to explain the pattern of Atlantic (vs. Continental) predispositions among European countries. It argues that this is the best suited conflict in the post-Cold War era to illuminate this stable and fundamental pattern. Whereas systemic power distribution, size, public opinion, or government ideology all fail to account for the positioning of states in the conflict (and balance of threat applies only modestly), a theory of ‘past and present geopolitics’ is outlined that seems able to explain states’ predispositions and, hence, their positionings in this specific situation. It is remarkable that ‘old-fashioned’ geopolitical dynamics can be identified even within the Euro-Atlantic zone of ‘peace and prosperity’—not only at its fringes, but also in its very heart.  相似文献   

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Using the debate over democratization and conflict, we demonstrate how the connection between conceptualization and operationalization can play a decisive role in testing falsifiable hypotheses. We discuss seven different operationalizations of regime change based on three different conceptualizations of democracy. Although we find high correlations between different measures of democracy, when they are used to capture regime change, the correlations drop precipitously. In multivariate estimations of the effect of regime change on a range of conflict variables, we generate widely disparate results, providing no consistent support that democratization affects conflict. We thus demonstrate that decisions about conceptualization and subsequent operationalization have decisive impact on the inference we produce. In contrast, our controls for the effect of institutionalized democracy consistently show a negative relationship between joint democracy and conflict. Finally, autocratic regime change seems to be more robustly correlated with a range of conflict behaviors than heretofore recognized in this literature.  相似文献   

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ABSTRACT

Third-party intervention in ethno-religious conflict is an old phenomenon, although scholarly attention with a general range of application is generally new and uncommon. This study with attempt, through a systematic review of religion and other factors that can impact upon foreign policy role performance, to explain Pakistan's intervention in Kashmir, which led to full-scale war in 1965.

The article unfolds in six sections. The first provides an overview of thirf-party intervention in ethno-religious conflict. The second section introduces systemism a framework that brings together unit- and system-level factors. The theory of role analysis in foreign policy and its usefulness in explaining third-party, ethno-religious intervention is covered in the third section. Section four brings together systemism and role theory and eleborates linkages, with an emphasis on religion and other salient factors from the literature on foreign policy and intenational conflict. The fifth section presents the case study of Pakistan's intervention in India in 1965. Section six sums up the findings from the case study and offers a few observations about the contemporary situation in Kashmir.  相似文献   

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Yet another Post 9/11 historical event indicating a significant turning point in the Post-Cold War era, Russia-Georgia conflict represents a remarkable change in the international strategy of a resurgent Russia. It also signifies that former Soviet republics are still groping for a new identity and that a new round of realignment will persist in the vast Eurasia region. The conflict reveals declining U.S. global control, flawed European integration, and NATO embarrassment. To a certain extent, it exposes chaos brought about by international nonpolarity and world governance vacuum. It also highlights what serious consequences can a double standard inflict on the principles of international law. A reasonable arrangement for global security and economic growth is therefore challenging the resolve and wisdom of international strategists. Actually fierce geopolitical rivalry for energy resources is at work behind the Russia-Georgia conflict. This will further compound the international energy strategic environment.  相似文献   

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