Applying a Two-Step Strategy to the Analysis of Cross-National Public Opinion Data

W. Phillips Shively Department of Political Science, University of Minnesota, 1414 Social Sciences Bldg. 267 19th Ave. South, Minneapolis, MN 55455 email: kjlong{at}umich.edu (corresponding author) email: shively{at}polisci.umn.edu. In recent years, large sets of national surveys with sharedcontent have increasingly been used for cross-national opinionresearch. But scholars have not yet settled on the most flexibleand efficient models for utilizing such data. We present a two-stepstrategy for such analysis that takes advantage of the factthat in such datasets each "cluster" (i.e., country sample)is large enough to sustain separate analysis of its internalvariances and covariances. We illustrate the method by examininga puzzle of comparative electoral behavior—why does turnoutdecline rather than increase with the number of parties competingin an election (Blais and Dobryzynska 1998, for example)? Thisdiscussion demonstrates the ease with which a two-step strategyincorporates confounding variables operating at different levelsof analysis. Technical appendices demonstrate that the two-stepstrategy does not lose efficiency of estimation as comparedwith a pooling strategy.     

Beyond reparations: Justice as indigenism

For the peoples who have inhabited, since time immemorial, the lands within the external borders of the U.S., remediation of genocide, land theft, and ethnocide is a pressing issue. However, monetary reparations would frustrate the reacquisition of the American Indian capacity to self-determine on ancestral lands. Because the injustice at the core of U.S. history is neither broadly acknowledged nor deeply understood, Part I provides historical foundation and sketches the factual predicate to the American Indian claim for redress. Part II presents and evaluates theories of justice with respect to this claim. Part III counters the shortcomings of these theories with a theory, Justice as Indigenism, that propounds a program of land restoration and legislative reform that will accord the full measure of relief to American Indians consistent with the requirements of justice for all peoples. Chiricahua Apache and Professor of Law, Indiana University School of Law, Indianapolis, Indiana.     

Beyond Abenomics: Japan's grand strategy

Much attention has been devoted to Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's programme that aims to end Japan's prolonged economic stagnation, known as ‘Abenomics’. He has an equally radical agenda in foreign and security policy, however.     

Theorising Disability: Beyond 'Common Sense'

This article seeks to introduce the topic of disability to political theory via a discussion of some of the literature produced by disability theorists. The author argues that these more radical approaches conceptualise disability in ways that conflict with 'common-sense' notions of disability that tend to underpin political theoretical considerations of the topic. Furthermore, the author suggests that these more radical conceptualisations have profound implications for current debates on social justice, equality and citizenship that highlight the extent to which these notions are also currently underpinned by 'common-sense' notions of 'normality'. ¹     

Analysis of Cluster-Randomized Experiments: A Comparison of Alternative Estimation Approaches

Lynn Vavreck UCLA, Department of Political Science, 4289 Bunche Hall Box 951472, Los Angeles, CA 90095-1472 e-mail: lvavreck{at}ucla.edu (corresponding author) Analysts of cluster-randomized field experiments have an arrayof estimation techniques to choose from. Using Monte Carlo simulation,we evaluate the properties of point estimates and standard errors(SEs) generated by ordinary least squares (OLS) as applied toboth individual-level and cluster-level data. We also compareOLS to alternative random effects estimators, such as generalizedleast squares (GLS). Our simulations assess efficiency acrossa variety of scenarios involving varying sample sizes and numbersof clusters. Our results confirm that conventional OLS SEs areseverely biased downward and that, for all estimators, gainsin efficiency come mainly from increasing the number of clusters,not increasing the number of individuals within clusters. Wefind relatively minor differences across alternative estimationapproaches, but GLS seems to enjoy a slight edge in terms ofthe efficiency of its point estimates and the accuracy of itsSEs. We illustrate the application of alternative estimationapproaches using a clustered experiment in which Rock the VoteTV advertisements were used to encourage young voters in 85cable TV markets to vote in the 2004 presidential election. Authors' note: We thank Rock the Vote for permission to usetheir public service announcements in this field experiment.The authors are grateful to Alan Gerber for suggestions throughoutthe design phase of this project. We are also grateful to DanKotin and Margaret Coblentz, who worked with cable operators,distributed the advertisements, and assembled the data. We thankTerence Leong for his programming expertise. Replication materialsare available on the Political Analysis Web site.     

公共支出效率评价——带非自主决定输入的两阶段数据包络模型

公共支出的效率评价是政府进行有效公共支出管理的基础,正确评价公共支出效率也是各国政府需要研究和解决的问题.经济学是通过比较公共支出前后的社会福利变化来衡量公共支出效率的,然而,社会福利是由公共支出与私人支出共同决定的,而且公共支出的增加是有机会成本的.因此,我们不能通过忽略私人支出,而单独分析公共支出对社会福利的影响的方式来衡量公共支出的效率.同时,各种原因共同导致政府通过公共支出提供的公共产品组合往往与社会公众的实际需求不一致.本文尝试在分析公共支出的效率时,把私人支出也纳入分析的范畴,同时提出了一种方法--带非自主决定输入的两阶段数据包络模型,试图解决在政府与公众偏好不一致情况下的公共支出的效率评价问题,并按照中国的数据进行了实证检验.     

Beyond Hollowing Out: Straitjacketing the State

For two decades, the metaphor of ‘hollowing out’ dominated discussions about the changing role of the state in delivering public services. Today, this metaphor no longer captures important contemporary developments. European Union policy has expanded deeper and deeper into public service sectors, increasingly constraining government's capacities to deliver these services. I suggest a new metaphor to capture this: straitjacketing the state. People are straitjacketed when they are perceived to be at risk of damaging themselves through self‐harm. Straitjacketing the state occurs when a state signs up to a new set of supranational rules which purportedly will help avoid it damaging itself, by restricting room for localised inefficient practices. However, due to the strength of the straitjacket, governments become significantly restricted in choosing policies for domestic implementation according to their preferences.     

社会回归——行政权力的演进方向

随着先发国家逐渐从工业社会向后工业社会转型,国家行政权力向社会回归的趋势变得越来越明显,这种变化主要体现在政府与公民、政府与市场以及政府与“第三部门”的关系上。根据自由主义的国家和社会关系的观点,国家权力是由社会让渡的,当社会发展到一定的成熟阶段,势必要求将让渡给国家的部分权力收回。而这些需要回归社会的权力往往是通过传统的政府的行政职能来体现的,因此,通过调整政府职能范围来重塑行政权力的行使空间,是确保行政权力向社会回归的关键。     

Exploring Space: NASA at 50 and Beyond

In 2008, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) celebrated its fiftieth anniversary, and has been embarked on a mission to put astronauts on the moon, possibly by 2020. Is this goal “back to the future”? Or is it “the way forward” as a prelude to a mission to Mars? An advisory panel to President Obama has recommended alternatives to the moon as routes to Mars. At the time of writing, Obama has yet to decide. Of course, NASA has already arrived on Mars with robots, a tribute to the agency's remarkable technical prowess. However, the ultimate challenge would be to send men and women to Mars. Why? That, of course, is the big question. The answer lies in the human heart rather than in the rational mind. NASA's exploration of this unknown frontier has more in common with the expeditions of Columbus and Magellan than the missions of most other federal agencies. Any list of discretionary expenditures would prioritize space exploration as an extreme example of an unnecessary luxury that can be postponed. So why should NASA continue to explore space? That question takes on an acute meaning during a time of intense domestic economic and foreign policy challenges. But imagine: what would be lost to America if NASA did not exist?