论苏联解体后的“核遗产”及核扩散危机

苏联解体后其庞大的核武库也一分为四,在核武器系统、核材料、核科学家及核技术等三个层次都出现了失控的核扩散危机。以美国为首的国际社会从各个方面给予了大力援助,使前苏联庞大的"核遗产"得到了妥善的处理。因苏联解体而一度出现的核国家增多的问题得以解决,核扩散危机也基本得到消除。这不仅有效地捍卫了国际核不扩散体制,而且在实践上也是对国际核不扩散机制的补充和发展,对人类社会的和平与安全也是重大的贡献。当朝鲜和伊朗核问题屡成危机而长期困扰国际社会时,我们重温这段历史,也具有深刻的现实意义。     

冷战后核危机频发原因探析

冷战的终结带来了国际核裁军的良好势头,但在20世纪90年代末至21世纪初,印巴核竞赛、朝鲜核危机和伊朗核问题频频出现,一些大国的核政策也出现了逆转,国际核形势依然不容乐观。导致这一时期核问题突出的原因是多方面的。在核危机应对过程中,和平解决成为相关国家的首要选择;核大国积极介入共同干预;相关国际组织和区域组织空前活跃;地区安全机制建设提上了议事日程。     

俄罗斯的致命武器--核公文包

20世纪90年代初苏联解体,由于实行激进的经济政策,俄罗斯的经济陷入崩溃的边缘,综合国力下降,与原苏联超级大国相比不可同日而语。但是,当今的俄罗斯在一些重大国际问题的解决上仍然占有举足轻重的作用,那是因为一流的“核威慑”能力使俄罗斯的大国地位没有改变。核在俄对外政治、经济、军事和对内权力的争斗中成为致命武器。     

Towards a Nuclear Weapon Free World: Indian Perspectives

A Nuclear Weapon Free World has been proposed warmly in recent years.The author discusses the current global situation on this subject and that India has sustained interest in nuclear disarmament and presents what contribution India has made for nuclear disarmament.From India’s ethos,traditions and legacies,the author provides Indian perspectives towards building a Nuclear Weapon Free World.     

东南亚无核区前景透析

亚洲是世界核扩散形势最为严峻的地区。1998年南亚的印度和巴基斯坦进行核试验,成为事实上的核国家;2006年10月9日,东北亚的朝鲜又进行了首次地下核试验,成为世界上第8     

南非核政策的历史透析

南非是战后世界上惟一自愿销毁自己核武器的国家 ,其政策是世界核发展史上极具特色的个案。南非政府基于对自身安全问题的考虑 ,促使它走上发展核武器的道路 ,而随着国内外局势即将发生剧变时 ,对将会出现的黑人占主导的政权和白人极端种族隔离分子可能掌握核武器的担忧 ,则使它做出了拆除现存核武器的选择。南非的举动既是对国际核不扩散机制的贡献 ,也给当今国际社会解决核争端提供了可资借鉴的范例 :要用和平协商的办法解决导致核扩散的政治和军事威胁问题 ,从而消除促使一些国家或明或暗发展核武器的意愿 ,实现防止核武器扩散的目标。     

Crises and Crisis Generations: The Long-term Impact of International Crises on Military Political Participation

Why do states facing high levels of international threat sometimes have militaries that are heavily involved in government and at other times relatively apolitical, professional militaries? I argue that the answer to this puzzle lies in a state's history of acute international crises rather than its chronic threat environment. Poor outcomes—defeats or stalemates—in major international crises lead to professionalization and depoliticization of militaries in both the short- and long-term. A poor outcome creates pressure for military professionalization and withdrawal from politics in order to increase military effectiveness. This effect persists years later due to generational shifts. As officers of the “crisis generation” become generals, they bring with them a preference for professionalization and guide the military towards abstention from politics. I test this theory using a new global dataset on military officers in national governing bodies from 1964–2008 and find strong support for it.     

1973年的柬埔寨危机与中美合作

1973年的柬埔寨危机涉及多种国际因素.在越南战争基本结束和中美关系逐渐改善的条件下,中美之间在这个问题上有了初步的合作,双方有着共同的目标,即防止在该地区出现一个霸权势力,但由于种种原因,1973年的柬埔寨危机没有达成理想的解决结果.     

Choose Your Weapon: The Impact of Strategic Considerations and Resource Constraints on Terrorist Group Weapon Selection

ABSTRACT

Historians of terrorism note that modern terrorists rely almost exclusively on two weapon types: the gun and the bomb. However, the comparative use of these weapons differs from one terrorist group to the next. We exploit this variation to examine how the tactical decisions of terrorists respond to both strategic aspirations and resource constraints. We argue that a group’s goals (a strategic consideration) and size (a resource constraint) provide a parsimonious explanation for weapon selection. Because firearms inherently expose the shooter to higher risk, are more precise, and must be used if a group aspires to maintain social order, they are unlikely to be used by groups with limited recruits in a campaign of violence. We test this theory using data on over 350 terrorist organizations. Our analysis shows that strategic considerations and resource constraints both impact tactical choices, although groups with the most expansive goals, those which transcend national borders, as well as militias, are two interesting exceptions to our theory. Our research has implications for the use of disaggregated tactical data and in furthering our understanding of the rationality of terrorism.     

Fools Suffer Gladly: The Use of Economic Sanctions in International Crises

A number of recent international situations have raised again questions regarding the usefulness of economic sanctions as an instrument of foreign policy. Sanctions continue to be applied in a variety of contexts, yet we have not developed a sufficient understanding of the processes involved to determine when, or even if, sanctions can "work." While a great deal has been written on the subject, there have been neither attempts to subject the theoretical arguments to empirical testing nor efforts to provide systematic theoretical explanations for the empirical results that have been produced. In this article, we attempt to address this shortcoming in the literature. We propose a theory of sanctions effectiveness that is based on the spatial model of bargaining in international crises and use this theory to derive a number of hypotheses regarding when sanctions should produce favorable policy outcomes. We then subject some of the derived hypotheses to an empirical test based on a large number of international disputes. The model suggests that while sanctions will not work in many cases, they can have a slight effect on the distribution of expected outcomes if the costs of the sanctions are sufficiently high relative to the values at stake. The available evidence appears to support these expectations.     

The Nuclear Security Summit

The 1st Nuclear Security Summit was held in Washington, D.C, On April 12 and 13, 2010, and focused on how to better safeguard weapons-grade plutonium and uranium to prevent nuclear terrorism. The summit was impressive in terms of the number of participating countries and the rank of the participants, being the largest gathering of heads of state on American soil since the United Nations was founded in 1945. Leaders from 47 countries and major international organizations such as the UN, the IAEA and the EU attended.     

缅甸佛教的历史沿革

缅甸的佛教已流传一千多年的时间,在缅甸历史上占有重要的地位 ,曾被尊崇为国教。它对缅甸的政治文化和社会生活产生着重要影响。缅甸曾经是世界南传上座部复兴佛教的三大主力之一。本文拟对缅甸佛教的发展和传播情况作一综述。一、蒲甘王朝以前 (公元１０４４年前 )的佛教佛教传入缅甸 ,是在印度阿育王时代。据《善见律毗婆沙》等经籍记载 ,公元前三世纪 ,阿育王在华氏城结集后派出使团到各地弘法。在这些弘法使团中 ,高僧苏那迦和郁陀罗二位长老被派至金地传教。缅甸和欧美一些学者根据卡里亚尼等碑文记载 ,认为金地就是缅甸南部萨尔温江…     

俄罗斯在危机中调整发展思路

2009年俄罗斯经济未能摆脱危机困境,梅普组合主动调整发展战略,确立了经济社会全面现代化改造的新目标;并加大社会保障力度,力求把危机对民众生活的影响降至最低。经济危机未改变俄追求强国的梦想,俄借国际格局和大国关系调整之机,重新审视国际环境,强调外交主动性、务实性以及外交为经济服务,谋求在新格局中取得世界大国地位。     

The Historical Mind and Military Strategy

As important as the study of history for military strategists is the acquisition of the historical mind—that is, a way of thinking that uses history as a mode of inquiry. From practical cases to inspiration, history can help with U.S. military decision-making. The historical mind will detect differences as much as similarities between cases, avoiding false analogies, and look for the key questions to be asking. It will look for continuity but also for more important discontinuities; it will look for linkages between data points, but not be too quick to attribute causation. It is a well-traveled mind that appreciates the variability of people and places, conditions and problems; it avoids over-reliance on “lessons learned.” For that reason, the historical education of civilian and military strategists is more, not less, important in an age of rapid change.     

The Cyber Threat to Nuclear Stability

The thesis of this article is that cyber war technologies are spilling over into precision strike and nuclear mission areas. The result will transform deterrence and arms race stability and lead to other significant changes. The driver behind this is a combination of long standing problems with mobile missiles along with new technologies not usually factored into strategic assessments: big data analytics, computer vision, and related information systems. When combined with drones and precision strike, the hunt for mobile missiles is becoming faster, cheaper, and better. The implications of this finding vary by country, but will shape major power nuclear modernization, crisis stability among secondary powers, and conventional attack of nuclear deterrents.