Trade specialization, export productivity and growth in Brazil, China, India, South Africa, and a cross section of countries

The paper analyses the patterns of export productivity and trade specialization profiles in Brazil, China, India and South Africa, and in other economic groupings and regions. Various measures of trade specialization and a time varying export productivity indicator are estimated using highly disaggregated export data. The findings reveal that there are important differences in the export productivity and specialisation patterns across countries and regions. Export productivity??and export sophistication??are in line to that of wealthier and more advance economies. The results further confirm the importance of not just the volume of exports, but the type of specialisation patterns.     

Climate agreements and India: aligning options and opportunities on a new track

The Climate negotiations in Copenhagen in December 2009 witnessed the emerging power of Brazil, South Africa, India, and China (BASIC). Although still focussed on domestic development goals, BASIC countries have made important steps toward a greater engagement in the global climate agenda. For India, the shift was marked by a voluntary, but conditional, target of reducing emission intensity, away from the past normative position based on “equal per capita,” emissions entitlements. The new track aims at finding cost-effective mitigation strategies that align national development goals and climate actions. This paper examines the mitigation potential of a domestic sustainable development policy using a suite of integrated assessment models. The long-term goal is to keep temperature increase below 2°C. This article shows that it is possible to match domestic development goals and climate mitigation. Win–win options exist and side benefits—in terms of energy security and local pollution—are important. However, development policies are not sufficient to achieve the desired emissions reductions. We find that it is necessary to introduce a constraint on the carbon budget. The price of carbon that emerges is however much lower than in a conventional mitigation scenario. Finally, this paper proposes to shift the negotiations away from the current climate-centric focus toward “development,” in order to reduce conflicts and deliver greater global and national benefits.     

Finance growth nexus across Indian states: evidences from panel cointegration and causality tests

The paper deals with finance-growth relationship across Indian states over 1980–2011 in panel cointegration and causality framework. We apply Engle–Granger two-step procedure for cointegration test in panel setting which takes care of cross-sectional dependence and heterogeneity across states. For panel Granger causality analysis, we employ Dumitrescu and Hurlin (Econ Model 29:1450–1460, 2012) method and apply bootstrapping to account for cross-sectional dependence. We find robust evidence of cointegration between per capita income and credit per capita. Using panel FMOLS, we find that 1 % change in credit per capita results in 0.14 % change in per capita income. Panel Granger causality test reveals that there is bi-directional causality (feedback effects) in the absence of cross-sectional dependence. However, with cross-sectional dependence, we find evidence in favour of supply leading hypothesis. Probable policy implication calls for inclusive financial development and growth strategies in order to mitigate uneven income levels across states.     

实力变迁、法律传统与美欧印中贸易政策的演进

国际经济格局的深刻变化引发了美欧印中等主要贸易体贸易政策的变化.这种变化主要体现为其外贸法、外资法和出口管制法的修改,而国际习惯法和国际经济条约对这种修改的约束有限.美欧印中的代表性国际经济法理论分别为"制度管理说"、"规范承诺说"、"贸易民主论"和"责任共担论",这些理论反映了各贸易体的国际经济法传统和理念.以这些理...     

我国八大经济区利用外资的经济效果分析

将我国划分为八大经济区是对原有东中西部区域划分的细分,这一划分更多地考虑到区域GDP总量、经济发展水平等方面的相似性,更具有合理性.本文在分析了八大经济区实际利用国外直接投资(FDI)的水平和特点的基础上,计算了八大经济区在1993-1998年和1999-2004年两个阶段中FDI与GDP、外商投资企业进出口、进出口商品总值的关联度,探讨了关联度变化的原因及趋势,并由此对各经济区今后引资提出了相关的政策建议.     

Finance-growth-poverty nexus: a re-assessment of the trickle-down hypothesis in China

Poverty has remained one of the prominent challenges of humanity. Different solutions have been suggested to curb poverty. Economic growth and financial development are two such crucial tools for overcoming poverty, as frequently pointed out by economists. These tools work through the so-called trickle-down hypothesis, which contends that a well-functioning financial system would enhance poverty reduction by promoting economic growth. One country that appears to have manifested this hypothesis is China. However, the empirical test of the trickle-down hypothesis for China is scant. In addition, most of the existing studies have failed to account for regime-shift in parameters or structural breaks. This paper attempts to fill this void by testing the trickle-down hypothesis for China during the period 1985–2014. We utilized two standard proxies for financial development, namely: the domestic credit to private sector by banks as percentage of GDP, and money and quasi money as percentage of GDP; annual percentage change in real GDP per capita to proxy economic growth; and a standard proxy for poverty reduction namely: the household final consumption expenditure per capita growth. By accounting for structural breaks in our empirical specifications, we found overwhelming support for the trickle-down hypothesis at the national level. That is, we found financial development to cause economic growth, which in turn causes poverty reduction in China at the national level. This has important policy implications.     

Innovation capacity and economic development: China and India

Decomposing the GDP growth from 1981 to 2004, this paper finds that innovation capacity has contributed significantly to the economic growth of China and India, especially in the 1990 s. Outputs of the national innovation system, measured by patents and high-tech/service exports, demonstrate the considerable progress China and India have made in innovation capacity. The enhanced innovation capacity of China and India is primarily due to their heavy investment in the inputs of innovation system, i.e., R&D expenditure and R&D personnel, in recent decades. This paper emphasizes the role that the governments have played in promoting innovation capacity and their contribution to economic development. Both governments have transformed their national innovation systems through linking the science sector with the business sector, providing incentives for innovation activities, and balancing import of technology and indigenous R&D effort. Using case studies of domestic biotech firms in China and India, this paper also offers micro-level insights on innovation capacity and economic development: (1) innovation capacity has become essential for domestic firms?? market success and (2) global institutional factors and national government policies on innovation have considerable influence on the choice of innovation at the firm level, i.e., to conduct indigenous R&D or to import foreign technology.     

Trade liberalisation and endogenous growth: Some evidence for Turkey

This paper examines the impact of trade liberalisation on the long-run economic development as measured by the real GDP per capita in Turkey. Based on the ‘endogenous’ growth theory, we employ bivariate and multivariate cointegration analyses to test the long-run relationship among the relevant variables. Results for Turkey suggest a stable, joint long-run relationship among real GDP per capita, an index of trade liberalisation, human and physical capital in accordance with the ‘endogenous’ growth theory. Statistically significant error-correction terms provide further evidence that those variables are indeed cointegrated. This also implies causal effects.     

Sino-Indian Liberalization: The Role of Trade and Foreign Investment

Two major factors account for a country’s growing integration with the global economy: trade and foreign investment; expansion of exports, and foreign direct investment (FDI). Growth of exports became a dominant source of industrial growth during the 1980s in most developing countries (see Helleiner, 1995). Most of these countries including China and India, have replaced the old import-substitution policy by an export promotion strategy. Both domestic and international factors played an important role in the shift of national policies to repay debts. The process of globalization already underway necessitated export orientation for improving technology, management practices, marketing and international competitiveness. This paper aims at exploring the contributions of exports and FDI to growth and economic liberalization in China and lndia. The first section briefly reviews similarities and differences in the two economies. The second section deals with growth, composition and direction of foreign trade. The third section examines the role of FDI, and its sources and composition by sector, industry, and by overseas ethnic Chinese and Indians. Trade and FDI linkages are examined in the fourth section which also contains a brief case study of Guangdong (China).     

碳排放与出口贸易竞争力关系的实证分析——以中美贸易为例

在过去的五年里,中国的碳排放量几乎双倍增加,目前已经成为世界最大的碳排放国。多数研究发现,出口是碳排放量增加的主要原因。本文以此为出发点,构建了衡量出口贸易竞争力和碳排放的相对指标,通过协整检验、因果关系检验等实证分析,考察1990—2007年间我国和美国的相对排放和相对市场占有率,发现我国出口贸易竞争力指标和碳排放之间存在稳定的线性关系,并且互为Granger原因。     

The dynamic interactions among foreign direct investment, economic growth, exports and unemployment: evidence from Taiwan

The vector autoregression (VAR) method of variance decomposition and impulse response function analysis was applied to analyze dynamic relationships among foreign direct investment (FDI), economic growth, unemployment, and trade in Taiwan. The analysis results show that both economic growth and exports have positive impacts on FDI inflow; however, export expansion has a negative impact on FDI outflow. FDI inflow also has an obvious positive impact on exports and economic performance. The evidence also shows that there is no relationship between FDI inflow and unemployment. In addition, we found that a positive relationship exists between economic growth and exports while a negative relationship exists between unemployment and economic growth.     

Finance-investment-growth nexus in South Africa: an ARDL-bounds testing procedure

In this paper we examine the dynamic causal relationship between financial development, investment and economic growth in South Africa—using the newly developed ARDL-Bounds testing procedure. Unlike the majority of the previous studies, we incorporate investment in the bivariate model between financial development and economic growth—thereby creating a simple trivariate causality model. In addition, we use three proxies of financial development, namely M2/GDP, the ratio of private sector credit to GDP and the ratio of liquid liabilities to GDP in order to test the robustness of the results. Our results show that, on the whole, economic growth has a formidable influence on the financial sector development. The study also finds that there is a distinct unidirectional causal flow from economic growth to investment. Moreover, the study also finds that investment, which results from growth, Granger-causes financial development. The study, therefore, recommends that South Africa should intensify its pro-growth policies in order to bolster investment and financial development.     

收入差距、经济增长与中国的财产犯罪——1978-2005年的实证研究

通过对中国1978-2005年间收入差距、经济增长等宏观经济因素对财产犯罪的影响所进行的实证研究发现,全国、城镇内部、农村内部以及城乡之间的收入差距对财产犯罪产生了显著的影响,经济增长与财产犯罪呈显著的负相关关系,同时中国的财产犯罪还表现出明显的惯性特征。而诸如人均GDP、城市化、福利开支等虽然对财产犯罪产生了影响,但都不显著。     

Brazil��s growth performance: a comparative perspective to the Asian giants

We compare economic efficiencies in Brazil, India, and China, where economic efficiency measures the gap between potential and actual output for a given input combination and technological factor. We use stochastic production frontier models to measure the contributions of factors of production and technology to growth and estimate non-positive error terms that capture production inefficiencies in each country. The results suggest that China and India had relatively inefficient production in the early 1980s but have since improved production efficiency substantially. In the same period, production efficiency in Brazil has lagged those of China and India. The gap between Brazil??s production efficiency and those of its Asian peers has narrowed in recent years. However, production remains more efficient in China and India, supporting more rapid growth in these countries relative to Brazil.     

Macroeconomic Development and Civil Litigation

This paper contributes to the explanation of the tremendous rise in civil litigation activity in Austria over the last four decades by analysing the influence of macroeconomic conditions on civil litigation. We find that the number of transactions per individual—proxied by the level of real per capita GDP—positively influences the amount of litigation per capita. Inertia in litigious behavior reinforces effects. In the short run, however, we observe a countercyclical pattern of litigious activity. Cointegration analysis confirms the short run negative association, and a long run cointegrating relationship between GDP and civil litigation. Several robustness tests corroborate our results. Rent-seeking interpretations, and possible detrimental effects on the long run growth prospects cannot be excluded.     

Inclusive growth,human capital development and natural resource rent in SSA

This paper seeks to achieve two objectives. First, we argued for the increase in government expenditure on education and health to examine the possibility of achieving inclusive growth. Second, financing gap model was employed to estimate the potential growth in GDP per capita that is accruable to the economy if government use natural resource rent to finance increase in expenditure of education and health. Relying on dataset for 18 SSA countries, among the results obtained showed that both government expenditures are found to be significant for explaining growth in SSA. However, augmenting health expenditure with natural resource appears to be more significant for making growth process inclusive. Also, the results of the simulation exercise indicate that increasing government expenditure on health would increase GDP per capita growth by over 3.1 %. The policy implication of this is drawn based upon the results obtained.     

Corruption and turnout in Portugal—a municipal level study

This article ventures to be one of the first studies that examines the relationship between corruption and electoral turnout on the sub-national level. Taking Portugal, a southern European country with nationally relatively high levels of corruption and relatively low levels of turnout, as a case, we examine the relationship between the two concepts across Portugal’s 304 out of 308 municipalities for the legislative elections in 2005 and 2009. Controlling for municipal level GDP per capita, unemployment, the percentage of senior citizens, and population density, as well as the closeness of the election and the district magnitude, we find corruption to be a rather strong mobilizing agent. Compared to “clean” municipalities, our results indicate that turnout is several percentage points higher in “very corrupt” municipalities.     

Total factor productivity and the role of entrepreneurship

The absence of evidence in the scholarly literature for a tested long-term relationship between entrepreneurship and economic growth is at odds with the importance attributed to entrepreneurship in the policy arena. The present paper addresses this absence, introducing entrepreneurship using four different and accepted models explaining the total factor productivity of twenty OECD countries with data for the period 1969–2010. Traditionally, entrepreneurship is not addressed in these models. We show that in all models—as well as a joint one—entrepreneurship has a significant influence while the remaining effects largely stay the same. Entrepreneurship is measured as the business ownership rate (number of business owners per workforce) corrected for the level of economic development (GDP per capita).     

巴西乡村发展政策法规特征研究

巴西是拉丁美洲面积最大的国家,近年来经济发展迅猛,已经成为“金砖四国”之一,其国内的政治、经济、法律制度日益引起国际社会的广泛关注。巴西在乡村发展方面所制定的政策和法规,为巴西乡村社会的发展起到了指引和规范作用。我国的乡村发展模式与巴西有所不同,我国在乡村发展法制建设方面应特别关注农村地区土地兼并问题,应通过集约化经营和统分结合的双层经营体制,来保证我国乡村地区社会和经济发展的稳定性。     

Patent laws and innovation in China

This paper explores whether the patent laws and intellectual property rights (IPR) system in China have resulted in innovation during the reform period. Subject to criticism on account of imperfect enforcement, the patent law system has produced a stock of patents which has grown rapidly alongside economic growth. The success rate of patent applications is similar across the country despite the considerable regional disparities in income and in the level of innovation. This paper presents a simple model of patent production in China derived from the patent law system that also considers the relevant contextual factors that could influence innovation. The main innovation input of R&D personnel is found to be a significant determinant of patents. While per capita GDP increases the propensity to innovate across all regions, notable heterogeneity exists whereby the coastal, central and interior areas are associated with different factors that produce innovation and influence the innovation process. The paper concludes that China's imperfect IPR system is nevertheless generating innovation as the country develops and hinges on the key factor of researchers.