Export diversification and economic performance: evidence from Brazil, China, India and South Africa

In this paper we discuss relationship between export diversity and economic performance, focusing on Brazil, China, India and South Africa (BCIS). Using time data on exports over the period 1962?C2000 and Applied General Equilibrium (AGE) models for each country, we note the similarities as well as differences in the patterns of diversification in these countries. We find evidence of a U-shape relationship between per capita income and export specialization in at least China and South Africa, and given that the results from Granger causality testing are inconclusive and not robust with regards to export diversification measures, some preliminary evidence from the results suggest that export diversification Granger causes GDP per capita in Brazil, China and South Africa, but not in India, where it is rather GDP per capita changes that are driving export diversification. From AGE modeling we find that South Africa differs from the other economies in that it is the only case where export diversification has an unambiguously positive impact on economic development while in contrast in Brazil, China and India, it is rather export specialization that is preferred. We show that the manner in which export diversification is obtained may be important: if it is obtained with less of a reduction in traditional exports, the impacts are better (less negative).     

The role of R&D and input trade in productivity growth: innovation and technology spillovers

Productivity improvements generally are driven by technology innovation and its spillovers. This study explores the role of R&D investment and intermediate input trade in productivity growth using country-industry-level data for 25 advanced and emerging economies. This paper confirms that R&D investment and intermediate input import/export (both intra- and inter-industry) with technologically advanced economies play important roles in productivity growth in non-frontier countries. We further find that the productivity gains of technology spillovers via input trade channels are likely larger for countries/industries where technology converges to the frontier. These findings imply that the recent slowdown in R&D investment and intermediate input trade in some advanced economies may contribute to declining productivity growth. The potential productivity improvements from R&D investment and free trade as well as the importance of domestic capacity in facilitating technology spillovers should be recognized.

     

Foreign direct investment and the volume of trade: the case of Poland

In this paper we study empirically the relationship between the volume of trade and foreign direct investment in Poland using the FDI augmented gravity equation derived from the modified Chamberlin–Heckscher–Ohlin model with multinational firms and complete specialization in production. We find that FDI contributes positively to the development of international trade between Poland and OECD countries, although the complete specialization C–H–O model with multinational firms does not find support in the data. In contrast, it seems that incomplete specialization H–O model better explains Poland’s trade with the OECD countries. The lack of support for the complete specialization model suggests that the vertical model of the multinational firm may not be appropriate for explaining trade and FDI patterns between Poland and the OECD countries. Therefore, other than labor cost reduction motives might explain the expansion of multinational firms’ activity in Poland. In the light of provided empirical evidence the fears of relocation of labor intensive assembly plants from the west to the east may not be fully justified.     

Scale, technique and composition effects in the Mexican agricultural sector: the influence of NAFTA and the institutional environment

More than a decade after NAFTA (North American Free Trade Agreement) entered into force, the environmental effects of agricultural trade liberalization in Mexico are still controversial, emerging, and not fully understood. This paper contributes to the literature that aims to explore trends in input use in the agricultural sector in Mexico during the post-NAFTA period among both commercial/industrial and traditional/rainfed farmers, and examines the influence of the national and multilateral institutional framework on these outcomes. We decompose the post-NAFTA agricultural production data into scale, technique and composition effects to estimate the impact that trade liberalization has had on the use of fertilizer and land use, two key agricultural inputs for which reliable aggregate data is available. We conclude that among commercial farmers patterns of crop type specialization and significant technological improvements have led to some declines in fertilizer use but they have been offset by growth in fertilizer use associated with growing agricultural output. Among traditional farmers increased output and specialization in land-intensive grain crops are contributing to an increase in land under cultivation and technological improvements show the potential, but not yet not the strength, to counteract these effects. We analyse the environmental institutional framework and rural development plans, observing that institutional weaknesses have, in several instances, reduced the environmental benefit of technique and composition effects. We conclude with recommendations about how the Mexican agricultural sector might reap the environmental benefits of international agricultural trade.     

External shocks,economic reforms,and the foreign trade behavior of the Soviet Union,China, and Hungary, 1970–1987

This article examines the external shocks and subsequent adjustment processes in the Soviet Union, China, and Hungary during 1974–76, 1979–81, and 1984–87. It compares the experiences of the three socialist countries with regard to external shocks to those of inward-and outward-oriented groups of newly industrializing countries (NICs). In contrast to the NICs, terms of trade effects were of secondary magnitude to export demand effects of external shocks in the three socialist countries during the first two periods. The oil-exporting Soviet Union had beneficial terms of trade effects during the first two periods, with unfavorable effects coming only in the third period. The adjustment responses to the external shocks varied greatly in the Soviet Union from the other two reform-oriented socialist countries and from both groups of NICs. It is interesting to note that the types of responses in the Soviet Union were quite opposite to that one observes for market economies. However, reform-oriented China and Hungary seemed to have response patterns similar to those of market economies, though China's response was similar to the outward-oriented NICs, while Hungary's was similar to the inward-oriented NICs.     

Wine, fruit, and emission reductions: the CDM as development strategy in Chile

Through the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) of the Kyoto Protocol, a developed country actor with a binding emission reduction target can use emission reductions from a project implemented in a developing country to meet this target. At the same time, CDM projects are meant to contribute to sustainable development in the host country, as defined by this country. The CDM is often taken to illustrate a broader contemporary turn in environmental policymaking toward market liberalism, flexibility, and pluralism, where the governance of the CDM involves ??agency beyond the state?? at different political levels and across various jurisdictions. While such an image of the CDM certainly identifies important aspects, it also downplays the ways in which states govern the CDM, not at the international level but at the domestic level through the host country prerogative to define its sustainable development priorities. Early on in the scholarly debate on the CDM, fears were raised about a ??race to the bottom?? with regard to sustainable development requirements on CDM projects. Our research on Chile confirms that hypothesis, with the important addition, that the ??race?? is not simply a structural feature of the CDM, but a deliberate strategy. We argue that Chile has actively chosen to put only marginal emphasis on securing the CDM??s contribution to sustainable development, and instead uses the CDM primarily as a tool to attract foreign investments, treating carbon credits as just another export product.     

Symmetry,proportionality and productivity bias hypothesis: evidence from panel-VAR models

By imposing symmetry and proportionality conditions and using the asymptotic theory of panel-VAR models, this study examines the behavior of real exchange rates and productivity bias hypothesis for New Zealand vis-a-vis her major trading partners and the proposed free trade area. The evidence clearly rejects the strong version of the PPP hypothesis but the weak version of the PPP hypothesis receives some support. The findings also indicate that productivity differentials among countries are one of the major sources that contribute to the deviation of the PPP-based exchange rate from the equilibrium rate. Policy implications for the proposed free trade agreement are offered.     

实力变迁、法律传统与美欧印中贸易政策的演进

国际经济格局的深刻变化引发了美欧印中等主要贸易体贸易政策的变化.这种变化主要体现为其外贸法、外资法和出口管制法的修改,而国际习惯法和国际经济条约对这种修改的约束有限.美欧印中的代表性国际经济法理论分别为"制度管理说"、"规范承诺说"、"贸易民主论"和"责任共担论",这些理论反映了各贸易体的国际经济法传统和理念.以这些理...     

China’s Integration in East Asia:Production Sharing, FDI & High-Tech Trade

China has taken advantage of the globalisation process and has become an assembly country for firms in Asia, which have extended their production and trade networks to China. China’s position in the segmentation of the production processes has fostered its trade in high-technology products. However the rapid technological upgrading of China’s trade is associated with an increasing dependence on foreign capital and technology. The emergence of China has led to the reorganisation of production in Asia and to a triangular trade pattern: firms in advanced Asian economies use China as an export base and instead of exporting finished goods to the US and Europe, now export intermediate goods to their affiliates in China.     

Chickenheads, agents, mommies, and jockeys: the social organization of transnational commercial sex

In the sex trafficking literature, the term ??trafficker?? is often used to refer to all the various actors who are involved in the business of transnational sex work. It thus includes those who recruit women in the source countries; those who transport victims across international borders; and those who manage and exploit the women in the various commercial sex venues in the destination countries. In this paper, we will look at some of the people who fall into these categories of being ??traffickers.?? Our goal is to better understand the many people who are facilitating transnational commercial sex. We will explore their background characteristics, the reasons for their involvement in sex trafficking, their roles and functions in the business, and the nature of their relationships with the women who sell sex. We will also discuss the issue of whether, and to what extent, organized crime groups are involved as traffickers in the transnational sex trade. Our discussion is drawn from face-to-face interviews with commercial sex workers, and with sex ring operators and a variety of government officials.     

Productivity growth, trade and FDI nexus: evidence from the Canadian manufacturing sector

Using the confined exponential and logistic models of technology diffusion, this paper investigates the roles played by international trade and FDI in explaining productivity growth through both technology transfer and domestic innovation, with the technology transfer also occurring independently. Using panel data on Canadian manufacturing industries, we first find a robust role for the autonomous and international trade embodied technology transfer in explaining TFP growth. Second, international trade and FDI (as well as research and development) all contribute to productivity growth through the rate of innovation. Finally, we find that the exponential and logistic models of technology diffusion may have different implications for the growth dynamics in a technologically lagging country.     

Small arms,big guns: a dynamic model of illicit market opportunity

Transnational illicit markets are deeply embedded within legal trade systems and thus should be affected by shifting market conditions. Applying a stochastic actor-oriented model (SAOM), this study tests whether variation in illicit market opportunity could account for changing relations within the small arms trade (2003–2008). Measures of market accessibility – changes in export activity, reporting transparency and the percent of the labour force that is armed – outperformed measures of weapon availability with the exception of involvement in armed conflict. Significant structural change in outdegree density and transitivity suggest the development of trade factions, and decreasing balance hints that leaders are emerging. With the pending de-escalation of US-led conflict in the Middle East, a flood of second-hand weaponry is about to enter the market. Continued research is required to further uncover how the legitimate trade infrastructure facilitates the illicit flow of goods.     

The effect of offender characteristics on offense specialization and escalation

The primary goal of this research is to investigate whether adolescent correlates of criminal behavior also serve as correlates of specialization and escalation in the criminal career. Prior research on offense sequences has focused on (1) establishing the existence of specialization and escalation and on (2) testing whether observed patterns of offense sequences differ across age and race of offender. We use data on 2,294 offenders from the Predicting Parole Performance in the Era of Crack Cocaine study (Haapanen & Skonovd, 1999). A series of multinomial logit models test for significant behavioral, social, and psychological correlates of the likelihood of offender specialization and escalation. The results show that without taking into account offender characteristics, there is evidence of specialization and escalation comparable to that found in prior research. Once offender background characteristics are controlled statistically, overall evidence of specialization and escalation is significantly reduced, indicating that (1) background characteristics are important predictors of types of offending and (2) background characteristics help to explain patterns of offending across the criminal career.     

我国自然人流动的法律现状及走向

立足我国现实国情,详尽分析我国自然人流动的动因,并从我国服务贸易的进出口两方面分别论述我国对自然人流动的GATS承诺及我国服务提供者进入外国市场的现状,最后,提出完善我国自然人流动的若干法律建议:建立支持和鼓励自然人流动的法律机制;积极参与国际服务贸易规则的制定和自然人流动的谈判;调整服务人员的输出结构并拓宽流动渠道;建立灵活高效的服务人员输出管理体制;严格自然人流动方面的法律规则;大力开展人才培训以提高服务人员的竞争力。     

The Soviet Gas Pipeline,American "Sanctions" and International Law

All manner of "sanctions" and restrictions introduced in international trade by the U.S. government in recent years, including those that were designed to impede the construction of the Soviet export gas pipeline, here evoked sharp protests not only in Western Europe but in the USA as well.     

Post-colonial trade between Russia and former Soviet republics: back to big brother?

We examine the developments in trade patterns between the former Soviet republics in the years following the initial breakup shock. After a huge fall following the Soviet breakup of the early 1990s, Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) trade with Russia began improving, and there have been recent formal efforts at Eurasian Economic Integration. This might be taken, a priori, as contrary to the hypothesis of gradual decline in Head, Mayer and Ries (HMR in J Int Econ 81(1):1–14, 2010)—or perhaps as evidence of the power of restored trade agreements, such as the incipient Eurasian Economic Union. We decompose the region’s trade into theory-consistent ‘gravity’ components, in order to analyze dynamic changes in the components since the Soviet era. Despite the sharp falls after 1991, trade in 1995 still shows strong ties, consistent with high dyadic (country pair) components linked to trade specialization. By contrast, in the second decade, the ties (dyads) began to weaken significantly and calibrated trade costs tend to rise, despite attempts at renewed integration. Rather, the sharp improvement in trade volumes was mainly due to the sharp recoveries in GDP levels for both Russia and many of the Central Asian Countries, associated with improvements in the global economy and economic ties with the World (especially with EU and China). We would therefore conclude that the recovery in trade between Russia and Central Asia reflects monadic factors (i.e., the regional economic recovery) and does not contradict the HMR (2010) hypothesis. Nevertheless, further, dynamic analysis shows that there are strong long-run ties within the CIS and Russia, which are not declining, and that sticky post-colonial adjustment does not appear set to eliminate the current bias of trade between these republics.

     

低碳壁垒对我国出口贸易的影响及我国应对的法律措施——以江苏出口贸易为视角

低碳经济已经成为世界未来经济发展的新方向,低碳出口也以其独特的优势成为国际贸易的新热点,低碳产品将成为各国出口贸易的新支柱。在低碳经济理念的指导下,低碳壁垒随之形成,并成为未来国际贸易中的主要壁垒模式。低碳壁垒的兴起和发展必将对我国出口贸易造成巨大影响,为使我国出口贸易及时有效地应对国外低碳壁垒,法律措施的设计与实施刻不容缓。     

信用证方式下外贸企业防范收汇风险探讨

在当前外贸形势日趋严峻的情况下，出口交易中即使采用信用证方式结算，也会存在风险。如何防范收汇风险，确保收汇安全，增加企业效益，减少国家资产流失，已成为摆在外贸企业面前的一个重要而紧迫的问题     

Iterative pricing for planning foreign trade

In many industrialized countries there exist large idle production capacities. Conceivably, these might be used for increased economic aid to developing countries and for the stimulation of trade with incompletely convertible currency territories. Concurrently, a stimulation of the economic development of the industrialized countries might be achieved. In developing countries, there may be need for using available export resources in an efficient way to obtain required imports. In the Soviet sphere of influence, there is the problem of how the state foreign trade monopolies should allocate available export quantities and scarce convertible currencies, so as to obtain required import quantities. Related problems were encountered by Western boards of trade after the war in allocating import and export licences. This paper deals with the problem how to attain efficient allocations in foreign trade with the help of modern electronic computational technique. The computational system may be developed to account for inter-industry relations and industrial investments in order to achieve a high rate of economic growth.     

Regionalization in East Asia

Institutional regionalization has come very late to East Asia compared with Europe, but its pace has dramatically increased since the mid-1990s. Many agreements, including bilateral ones such as those signed between Japan and Singapore, or pluri-lateral ones such as those between ASEAN countries, cover an ever increasing number of countries of the East Asian region, including Japan, India, and China. We first analyze Asian integration as a de facto, spontaneous, development of trade. Trade specialization in Asia has often been described as guided by the different levels of development of the countries participating in the regional integration. It constitutes a vertical division of labor between poor countries exporting natural resources and/or labor-intensive products to developed countries exporting machinery, sophisticated parts and components, and high-tech products. This trade structure is radically different from the European horizontal division of labor (exchange of different varieties of similar goods). Then we look at the micro-economic level how Japanese firms tend to integrate Asia into their international network, with Japanese partners being used as relays for Japanese export of semi-manufactured products. Last we present a simulation with the MIRAGE model of a scenario of general regionalization in which all the regions of the world develop preferential treatment for neighboring countries. These agreements are limited to industrial products with particular attention to the automotive sector. The main results are that Asia is the main winner in such a scenario, and within Asia it is Japan and Korea that will be the main winners. In fact, because developing Asia is one of the most protected regions of the world, the impact of liberalization is also the highest. Second, Japan and Korea are best placed to profit from these regional agreements, because other developed countries are excluded from the market of developing Asia. They also have superiority in manufacturing goods whereas countries like China might have problems upscaling their industrial production. Nevertheless our model did not take into account the voluntary pace of development chosen by China and that she will use her powerful state system to avoid being locked into low-tech, low-value-added products.