Political Dimensions of the Israeli Settlements Issue: Historic Opportunities and Challenges

There is a danger inherent in devoting a panel to a discussion of the political aspects of the Israeli settlements issue: in attempting to discuss everything, we could have ended up talking about nothing because many practitioners and scholars view the settlements as primarily a political project. The multidisciplinary nature of this conference reflected our belief that the settlement issue is deeper and wider than "simply politics." Yet, we were not free from the challenge of focusing a panel on the political aspects of the settlements in a way that makes a real contribution.     

Religious and Ideological Dimensions of the Israeli Settlements Issue: Reframing the Narrative?

Whether or not it will be possible to relocate settlers from the "territories" depends not just on the willingness of the relevant Israeli officials to authorize evacuation of some or all of the West Bank and Gaza given the violence it may cause, but especially on the thinking and the changing attitudes of the settlers themselves. Only by understanding the views of the current settlers — their motivations, their beliefs, and the differences among them — will it be possible to formulate a sensible relocation strategy. That was the focus of the conference's first panel.     

Legal Issues and Human Rights Dimensions of the Israeli Settlements Issue: Victims and Spoilers

The presenters on this panel discussed several important additional requirements for the successful implementation of a two-state solution that involves significant relocation of settlers. These requirements include balancing rights among different groups, minimizing the impact of "spoilers," and providing political compensation to settlers. Presenters also highlighted the relevance of elements of classic negotiation theory to this issue, including thinking creatively about substance and paying appropriate attention to process.     

以色列先发制人战略与伊朗核问题

以色列历届政府为确保生存，在特定安全环境下防患于未然，将战场推至敌人的境内，速战速决，并多次取得了出奇制胜的效果。以色列先发制人战略的成功经验主要体现在其对该战略的时机把握上，亦即不战则已，战则必胜。同时以色列避免持久战与消耗战，防止战线拉得过长，造成“体力透支”。伊朗核危机爆发后，以色列迟迟未对伊朗核设施采取先发制人打击，主要是遵循了这些原则。     

巴以争端的新焦点--隔离墙问题

隔离墙问题成为和平解决巴以争端的一大障碍,也因此成为世人关注的焦点.以色列修建隔离墙固然有反对恐怖主义、防止和减少恐怖袭击、保护以色列民众安全的目的,但它在事实上圈占了巴勒斯坦的许多领土和资源,给巴勒斯坦民众的生活造成了极大影响,对巴勒斯坦建国也极为不利.修建隔离墙违背了国际法的一些基本准则,对中东问题的和平解决造成了障碍,遭到巴勒斯坦的反对和国际社会的谴责.     

The Internal Israeli Conflict: The Past, Present, and Future of the Jewish West Bank and Gaza Settlements

On October 14 and 15, 2004, just days before the Israeli government submitted to the Knesset a draft legislation to authorize the evacuation of Jewish settlers from Gaza Strip and some settlements on the West Bank, a two‐day conference titled “Past, Present, and Future of the Jewish West Bank and Gaza Settlements: The Internal Israeli Conflict” was held at Harvard Law School. The conference was sponsored by the Program on Negotiation at Harvard Law School, the Saltman Center for Conflict Resolution of the University of Nevada, Las Vegas, and the United States Institute of Peace. This interdisciplinary conference's six panels, whose proceedings are summarized in the series of articles that follow, explored the religious, ideological, psychological, political, legal, and international dimensions of the conflict. Presenters included former and current Israeli and American government officials, experts on resettlement policies and compensation mechanisms, and scholars from a variety of disciplines. While presentation topics covered a range of issues relating to the settlements, three broad themes arose from the conference. First, participants agreed that it is important, if not fundamental, to understand the perspectives of the national religious settlers who are the driving force behind the settlement movement. Exploring the settlers’ diverse interests, fears, and identities is necessary in order to see why relocation is so threatening to them. The Israeli government can lessen opposition to withdrawal by showing the settlers empathy and reassurance, but only if government officials first achieve a true understanding of the settlers’ concerns. Participants also argued that a reframing of the relocation in ideological terms could be another critical component of a solution to this problem. It may be necessary for the leaders of the settlement movement to develop a new narrative or modify the existing one in order to legitimize their relocation. Part of this narrative will involve the concept of “a greater good”— the government must reassure the settlers that their sacrifice is for a higher cause. Several participants noted that Israel needs to show the settlers “tough love.” When the relocations begin, many expect that there will be violence and that disturbing images will be broadcast throughout Israel and around the world. Internal disruption could put the government led by Prime Minister Ariel Sharon and his Likud party coalition in jeopardy. The government must not waver in the face of this crisis, conference participants argued. In fact, the threat of violent and disruptive resistance by settlers and their allies can be part of the solution, not just the problem. The government and relocation supporters can use this extremism to justify decisive measures and to redefine the problem for the broader population to convince them that the stability of the country is at stake. Another major conclusion of conference participants was that, while the Israeli settlement issue has unique features, there is much to be learned from comparative analysis. Other countries have dealt with settlement situations, and their experiences offer invaluable lessons. In particular, participants contrasted Israel's settlements in Gaza and the West Bank with French settlements in Algeria and English settlements in Ireland. Some pointed to the French withdrawal from Algeria, which was politically painful but ultimately successful, as an example of “tough love” that Israel should follow. Finally, the involvement of third parties to help solve this conflict is indispensable. Participants noted that while much of Israel feels alienated from the European Union and the United Nations, the Israeli government is highly sensitive to the concerns of the United States, as evidenced by Sharon's decision to show the Gaza withdrawal plan to the U.S. government before he had even raised it with his cabinet and the Israeli parliament, the Knesset. International participation could help legitimize withdrawal and reduce Israeli responsibility for Gaza's future. Third parties can apply political pressure to encourage an accountable and responsible Palestinian leadership. They may also be called upon to provide some sort of financial aid. The participants acknowledged the complexity of the settlement problem and recognized that easy solutions do not exist. Yet, if the Israeli government works toward understanding the settlers’ perspectives, learns from comparative analysis, and involves third parties appropriately, the likelihood of a successful outcome increases greatly.     

Psyoping Hezbollah: The Israeli Psychological Warfare Campaign During the 2006 Lebanon War

The 2006 War between Israel and Hezbollah had a significant component of PSYOP. For the first time in its military history Israel deployed PSYOP as an inseparable part of its military operations. The performance of the PSYOP unit was less than satisfactory due to organizational factors and the general conduct of the war itself. This article analyzes the goals, the themes, and the delivery channels used throughout the PSYOP campaign. An attempt is made to answer the key question of whether this effort was effective.     

权力格局失衡与心理调适——中国东盟关系中的信任问题

2009年以来,尽管中国东盟自贸区成功建成,双方的经济相互依赖达到前所未有的高度,但是中国与东盟仍然经历了严重的信任危机。通过对中国东盟长达20年的信任关系建构历程进行回顾,文章试图回答哪些因素影响着中国东盟信任关系的建构这一理论问题。在对现有理论要素进行折中主义整合并且补充之后,文章从权力格局失衡以及东盟国家心理调适需要的角度重新看待中国与东盟20年来信任关系建构的互动进程,并对当前中国外交应对周边小国信任危机提出政策建议。     

被占领土与定居点(上)

有几件事引起了人们的注意 :一是 2 0 0 2年以色列沙龙联合政府中的国防部长、前工党主席本—埃利泽下令拆除一些在被占领土上非法搭建的定居点 ,此举引起了一些犹太定居者与拆房以军的激烈冲突。二是工党决定退出沙龙的联合政府 ,原因是沙龙要给定居点的开支增加预算 ,此事引发了工党的极大不满。三是沙龙通过提前大选组成了一个更加强硬的政府 ,人们猜测这个政府会在被占的阿拉伯土地上搞出点新名堂。发展由来“被占领土”主要是在 196 7年第三次中东战争后形成的 ,这次战争之后以色列控制土地达8772 1平方公里 ,约为联合国在 194 8年时分…     

The Israeli defense forces and unconventional warfare: The Palestinian factor and Israeli national security doctrine

The basic premises of the Israeli national security doctrine were laid down by the first Prime Minister, David Ben‐Gurion, who emphasized the decisive role of the neighboring sovereign states as the crucial enemy. This view continues to guide the architects of Israeli strategic thought despite the growing importance of a non‐state actor, that is, the Palestinian national liberation movement.     

巴以僵局及其未来走势

20 0 1年巴以冲突急剧升温 ,政治和解全面停滞 ,跌入十年来最低谷。“9·11事件”后 ,以色列搭乘“反恐”便车 ,对巴采取强硬政策 ,阿拉法特及巴民族权力机构面临极大困境。展望未来 ,僵局短期内虽仍难打破 ,但巴以爆发全面战争的可能性不大 ,阿拉法特的去留和美国下一步“反恐”重心向中东的转移更增加了巴以关系走向的不确定性。     

被占领土与定居点(下)

《2 4 2号决议》国际社会为结束阿以冲突做过许多努力 ,其中最显著的是通过了联合国安理会《2 4 2号决议》。该决议首先重申“不允许以战争获得领土”的基本原则 ,然后要求冲突双方 :1 以军撤离在最近冲突中所占的领土 ;2 尊重并承认该地区内每个国家的主权、领土完整和政治独立。决议的核心是土地与和平的关系 ,即要求以方把侵占的土地还给阿方 ,同时要求阿方给予以方持久的和平。这就是人们通常所说的“以土地换和平” ,该原则得到了世界各国的公认。大部分阿拉伯国家和以色列都接受了这个决议 ,但它们对决议的解释大相径庭。阿拉伯国家…     

巴以水资源争端及其出路

水资源之争是巴以冲突六大关键问题之一,水问题是仅次于耶路撒冷归属争议问题的第二大难题。巴以水争端集中于对地下含水层和约旦河水的争夺。造成目前巴以水资源分配困境的因素多种多样。通过和平方式切实解决巴以水资源争端是可行的,为此,双方应立即建立一个相互信任机制,努力缩小在水资源问题上的立场差距,调整各自的水政策,合作应对水危机。但太多的政治干扰和投入严重不足使双方解决水资源争端问题举步维艰,巴以水资源争端的局势尚难预料。     

以色列党派的离合与分野

以色列党派繁多，政党的合并(或联合)与分裂也十分频繁，是世界上党派变动较多的国家之一。以色列的大党都各有一部复杂的合并与分裂的历史。以色列议会的席位呈现分散化趋势，大党的优势在减弱，小党的作用在增强。大多数政党是犹太人的、世俗的、奉行锡安主义的，但是也有非犹太人的、宗教的、不奉行锡安主义的政党。在每一组政党内部，又存在许多的差别，甚至在一个党的内部也存在着不同的派别。人们只能根据各党的主要倾向或基本倾向对政治分野做一大致的判断。     

以色列安全战略的新阶段——兼论以色列从黎巴嫩撤军

在旷日持久的阿以矛盾发展过程中，以色列的地位较对方似乎不对称。以色列仅是一个1.49万平方公里的小国，而阿拉伯国家的总面积约1400万平方公里。以色列建国初期人口只约有90万，现在总人口约有600万，而阿拉伯国家总人口约2.7亿。众所周知，1948年5月14日以色列成立，翌日，周围阿拉伯国家的军队就开进……     

Convergent Geography and Divergent Identities: A decade of transformation in the Baltic states

In an incredibly short period of time the Baltic States transformed themselves from former 'Soviet republics' into potential EU member states. This article attempts to interpret foreign and security policies of the Baltic States as an embodiment of their emerging political identity. The focus is mainly on the issue of how 'Europe' is being integrated into the national identities of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania. This analysis leads to the conclusion that the Baltic States' political identity is constituted mainly within the framework of the meanings of nation-state discourse characterised by the East-West opposition. However, their participation in the EU integration process weakens the symbolic link between the state and the nation and creates tensions between the demands of identity and the actual practices of integration. This might be a hindrance to the Europeanisation of the Baltic States' identity and their international socialisation.     

Securing the State: From Zionist Ideology to Israeli Statehood

Between early 1947 and May 1948, the Zionist movement went from being a non-state actor representing the minority population within the territory of the British Mandate of Palestine to establishing the State of Israel, which would be recognised almost instantaneously by the world's two Superpowers, the United States and the Soviet Union. Such a result, however, was never a given. What processes allowed a non-state actor, the Zionist movement, to secure international acceptance for the creation of a Jewish state in highly ambiguous circumstances? This analysis explores the dual-track adopted by the Zionist movement, whereby it worked to create facts on the ground within Palestine whilst securing support for its state-building project at the international level. By establishing state-like institutions in Palestine whilst building international support, the Jewish Agency was able to secure for itself a unique place from which to declare statehood.