东亚货币合作中的美元因素

国际美元本位制使美国获得了主导东亚地区货币政策的软权力,国际美元本位制的"特里芬困境"对于东亚共同货币的构建也存在着难以避免的外部效应.东亚美元化削减了东亚货币合作的所得收益,而强势美元政策使东亚国家面对美元霸权时陷入进退两难境地,从而在一定程度上影响了东亚货币合作最终目标的实现.在东亚货币合作的过程中,一种理想化的共同货币区模式仍然需要不断的发展和完善,如何利用和应对美元的影响则是东亚国家亟待解决的一大问题.     

货币的性质与人民币的未来选择——兼论亚洲货币合作

不同于主流经济学从市场的角度看待货币,认为货币是交易媒介,其对真实经济的影响是中性的观点,本文从货币作为计价单位的属性出发,指出货币具有国家和权力的特征,它反映建立在国家权威基础上的社会信用关系.货币是真实经济中的一个重要变量.国际货币体系并非一个中性的体系.货币是国家财富的直接创遣者.拥有国际货币地位不仅能为货币发行国带来现实的铸币税和金融服务收入,更为重要的是,它使货币发行国享有影响别国的货币政策的主动权,并得以主导国际上货币和大宗商品的定价权,从而长期影响别国的经济发展.此外,拥有国际货币地位还为货币发行国的金融产品,金融机构和金融市场的发展带来便利,从而有利于维护和巩固一个倾向于货币发行国利益的国际金融体系.大国谋求不断扩大本国的货币漉通域,并竭力排斥别的国家竞争和取代自己的位置.国际体系中的大国关系史同时也是一部货币主权的斗争和变迁史.本文认为,中国迫切需要建立起人民币在国际货币体系中的国际地位,以维护本国的政治经济利益.就目前来看,中国尚不具备走人民币直接国际化的条件,而选择符合亚洲共同利益的区域货币合作路线更具有现实意义.     

建设中国货币市场基金的构想

货币市场基金在我国的基金市场理论中还是一个鲜为提及的领域，但从中国的利率政策、资本结构现状以及国人的中庸投资理念来看，货币市场基金在我国却存在着巨大的投资需求潜力。本文在分析美国货币市场基金的生存、发展、演变特点的基础上提出货币基金在中国成长的可能性，同时提出在中国建设货币市场基金的初步构想。     

欧洲经货联盟与欧元区货币权力结构的失衡

欧洲经货联盟(EMU)和欧元的引入对欧元区不同类型成员国货币权力具有不同的影响,EMU的宏观经济治理机制及其货币升值倾向为以德国为代表的"协调的市场经济国家"提供了更多的货币权力,同时却限制了PIGS等"混合市场经济国家"的政策空间,并在汇率决策和国际收支平衡管理两个层面强化了欧元区内部货币权力的不均衡。欧元区货币权力结构的失衡也与区内国家不同的发展模式有关。     

国际货币权力的历史经验与"第三世界货币区"的可能性

通过对已有货币国际化历史进程的回顾与分析,本文总结了国际货币权力更迭的一般规律,并得出人民币国际化有必要夯实区域基础等基本结论。研究发现,除亚洲之外,非洲、拉美的一些国家和地区与中国在贸易投资等方面有紧密的联系,甚至存在对中国的不对称依赖。这些区域均具备推行人民币国际化的器物基础和一定的制度基础,人民币区域化的视野应当超越亚洲一隅,兼具亚洲特色和世界器局。最后,本文提出并初步论述了指向第三世界货币区的人民币区域化路线图。     

东亚货币合作与人民币核心货币地位探析

全球化背景下的区域经济合作快速发展,欧元的产生和美元区的快速成长对区域经济理论的正确性做出了验证。东亚地区经贸关系发展迅速,而区域货币合作发展却相对迟缓。本文对东亚货币合作的必要性和可行性进行了分析,认为人民币在东亚货币合作中应该发挥核心货币的作用,并对其可行性进行了深入的分析和论证。     

超额储备、货币错配与金融风险——基于东亚实践的理论总结

以美元和欧元为关键货币的国际货币体系使得发展中国家存在显著的货币错配。对货币错配测度的一个较好指标是实际货币错配总额,因为其考虑到了债权性货币错配的存在。研究表明,债务性货币错配水平的急剧上升是东亚金融危机爆发的主要原因,但近年来东亚官方积累的超额外汇储备则引致了债权性货币错配和新的金融风险。国际主要货币汇率变化不仅使得东亚的货币错配更为复杂,而且使东亚货币当局在国际资本和外汇市场陷入两难境地,这凸现了全球性金融风险的积聚和扩大。     

解锁、链接与捆绑:美元在东南亚的国际化进程

二战后,东南亚逐渐成为美国的亚欧地缘战略要地。受传统货币关系网络影响,战后美元在东南亚的国际化水平较低,推动美元在东南亚的使用遂成为美国地区战略的重点之一。战后初期,美国稳步解锁欧洲国家对东南亚的经济与政治控制,为美元的渗透与使用创造条件。从20世纪60年代开始,美国利用日本和新加坡链接东南亚,降低冷战和越南战争的影响,加速美元货币关系网络的形成。20世纪80年代后,美国以自身的调整诱导东南亚的发展转型,采取措施削弱日本和日元的影响,利用美元货币关系网络捆绑东南亚的发展与未来,完成美元在东南亚的国际化,使美元成为最有影响力的国际货币以及影响区域经济发展的重要变量。东南亚是人民币国际化的重要目标区域,中国要从美元国际化进程中学习经验并汲取教训,采取有效措施推进人民币国际化。     

超额储备、货币错配与金融风险——基于东亚实践的理论总结

以美元和欧元为"关键货币"的国际货币体系使得发展中国家存在显著的货币错配.对货币错配测度的一个较好指标是实际货币错配总额,因为其考虑到了债权性货币错配的存在.研究表明,债务性货币错配水平的急剧上升是东亚金融危机爆发的主要原因,但近年来东亚官方积累的超额外汇储备则引致了债权性货币错配和新的金融风险.国际主要货币,X2率变-化不仅使得东亚的货币错配更为复杂,而且使东亚货币当局在国际资本和外汇市场陷入两难境地,这凸现了全球性金融风险的积聚和扩大.     

解锁、链接与捆绑:美元在东南亚的国际化进程CSSCI

二战后,东南亚逐渐成为美国的亚欧地缘战略要地。受传统货币关系网络影响,战后美元在东南亚的国际化水平较低,推动美元在东南亚的使用遂成为美国地区战略的重点之一。战后初期,美国稳步解锁欧洲国家对东南亚的经济与政治控制,为美元的渗透与使用创造条件。从20世纪60年代开始,美国利用日本和新加坡链接东南亚,降低冷战和越南战争的影响,加速美元货币关系网络的形成。20世纪80年代后,美国以自身的调整诱导东南亚的发展转型,采取措施削弱日本和日元的影响,利用美元货币关系网络捆绑东南亚的发展与未来,完成美元在东南亚的国际化,使美元成为最有影响力的国际货币以及影响区域经济发展的重要变量。东南亚是人民币国际化的重要目标区域,中国要从美元国际化进程中学习经验并汲取教训,采取有效措施推进人民币国际化。     

The Pacific Islanders' Fund and the Misappropriation of the Wages of Deceased Pacific Islanders by the Queensland Government

The Queensland Pacific Islanders' Fund operated between 1885 and the 1900s but is largely unknown today. It was established in the Treasury to facilitate the operation of the Pacific Island Labourers Act 1880 Amendment Act 1885 to safeguard return fares and to ensure that the money due to deceased Islanders was returned to their families. However, over time, because of the high death rates, the wages of deceased Islanders became so substantial that they were able to be used to supplement the administration of the whole labour trade. Money was drawn off to subsidize Islander hospitals and Christian missions, to an extent that in the final 1900s deportation years there was no longer enough money available to pay full fares. The Queensland government seldom returned the full wages to the families of the deceased Islanders and profited largely from their deaths. In today's money, millions of dollars were misappropriated, in similar fashion to wages misappropriated by the same government from Aborigines.     

Monetisation of electoral politics and the challenge of political exclusion in Nigeria

This paper argues that money has become the deciding factor in Nigerian politics. It has served the purposes of consolidating elite rule as well as the political exclusion of the non-elite. A discernible ‘ritual of money politics’, has enabled the power elite to remain in power, and new comers to develop the elite character. This paper concludes that money politics is at the heart of the general crisis of democracy and governance in Nigeria, and unless this is mitigated, reforms aimed at bringing about good governance and curbing other anomalies in the political system may not produce the desired results.     

大国战争之后:权力生产方式的历史演变

文章遵循历史脉络,从国际政治经济学的视角定义权力及其生产方式,将战争理解为权力博弈的一种手段,并考察随着权力及其生产方式的变化,大国获取权力和财富的渠道更为多元,战争的“投入—产出”比下降。文章认为,当政治权力意味着引领构建传统和非传统安全共同体,经济权力意味着领导全球经济治理和解决发展问题,多边制度体系及其信誉与融资成为新的权力生产方式,战争就不再作为大国博弈的必要选项,多边制度框架下的博弈成为大国战争之外的新主题。遵循制度逻辑、维护制度信誉是大国获得发展融资和治理融资,进而保持权力可持续生产的理性更优选项。     

新加坡货币政策初探

新加坡金融管理局自 1 971年成立以来 ,成功地维持货币供应量的平稳增长 ,保持了新元汇率稳中趋升的态势。新加坡政府一方面通过多种渠道收缩货币供应量 ,另一方面则通过外汇市场操作 ,向货币市场重新注入资金。这两种方向相反的操作过程有助于维持新元汇率的强势 ,也不致于造成市场新元过度短缺。从新加坡货币管理的实践来看 ,新加坡当局一直强调汇率稳定的重要性 ,以便为促进对外贸易创造良好的条件 ,并维持新加坡对外国投资者的吸引力 ;坚持物价稳定优先的货币政策 ;强调政府作为国民储蓄管理者的的角色。     

Indonesian local party politics

Since the fall of Soeharto in 1998, economic reforms have been linked to internationally supported programs to introduce market-facilitating “good governance” practices, which include the promotion of democratic elections and administrative and fiscal decentralization. International development organizations have thus put forward decentralization as necessary, essentially, to save Indonesia from becoming an irredeemably “failed state” — an issue that has now grown in importance because of the current nature of Western security concerns in Southeast Asia. But this article suggests that the way decentralization has actually taken place can only be understood in relation to the entrenchment of a democratic political regime run by the logic of money politics and violence, and primarily dominated by reconstituted old New Order elites. Taking local party politics in North Sumatra and East Java as case studies, the article shows that local constellations of power, with an interest in the perpetuation of predatory politics, still offer significant sites of resistance to the global neoliberal economic and political agenda.     

The Monetisation of Consent and its Limits: Explaining Political Dominance and Decline in Malaysia

ABSTRACT

Malaysia’s 14th General Election in 2018 toppled the Barisan Nasional government after six decades in power. Barisan Nasional’s longevity was due to its performance legitimacy and a capacity to manipulate electoral mechanisms. However, it was the use of money in eliciting consent that led to a political change. This article traces how sustaining the dominance of the Barisan Nasional under Najib Razak used a strategy which we term the monetisation of consent. However, when monetising consent loses its efficacy, political dominance is challenged. We discuss why and how manufacturing consent through the use of money has its limits when regime legitimacy is challenged. Intense political competition on the electoral terrain from 2008 and the multiplication of Malay-Muslim political parties induced Najib’s greater personal grip on state funds to gain political support. This resulted in the Najib regime’s kleptocratic turn. Beyond the disbursement of largesse to political power brokers and business elites, his government monetised consent as a populist strategy. The reduced efficacy of electoral manipulation made the monetisation of consent imperative for regime survival but the use of money and unpopular fiscal policies, which deprived citizens of disposable income, led to a legitimacy crisis and the Barisan Nasional’s defeat.     

Headlong into the Polanyian Dilemma: The Impact of Middle-Class Moral Panic on the British Government's Response to the Sub-prime Crisis

This article focuses on the discursive construction in Britain of a middle-class moral panic occasioned by the distress caused to self-styled 'responsible mortgage borrowers' by falling house prices. In the context of the move towards asset-based welfare the sub-prime crisis manifested itself most obviously in the popular consciousness as a threat to housing market wealth. The Labour government used the political space opened up by the narrative of middle-class moral panic in order to protect banks' balance sheets from the consequences of their own failed investments in mortgage-backed securities. The ensuing arrangements immunised banks from the implications of market self-regulation in the first-phase response to the sub-prime crisis while simultaneously allowing them to continue to impose the experience of market self-regulation on their customers. An increasingly asymmetric approach to banking regulation has arisen analogous to that which Karl Polanyi associated with the contradictory co-existence of market and non-market forms.     

韩国与中国台湾地区的不同发展道路

韩国与台湾地区的发展道路有重要不同。韩国是“指导的资本主义”道路,倾向于追求增长效率与市场经济的规范化,培育出了私营大企业群体,从而为进一步的发展提供了动力;台湾地区则在“民生主义”意识形态指导下走的是倾向于“均富”的道路,对市场经济和私营大企业的发展持谨慎态度,结果形成以中小企业为主的“草根经济”局面,造成工业升级和技术创新的瓶颈。韩国与台湾地区在20世纪80年代后发生经济地位的转换,与它们在高增长时期所奠定的不同基础密切相关。     

俄罗斯发展战略演变的理论逻辑

俄罗斯社会经济发展战略演变包括两个内容:调整的历史和内在的逻辑。俄罗斯经济结构的继承性是分析问题的历史起点,经济发展的内在规律是经济发展战略调整要遵循的理论逻辑。作为经济现代化的基础性制度保障,相对于技术工艺层面的创新,市场经济体制的完善更加重要,这不仅带来资源配置效率的提升,同时提出了保障市场经济体制有效运行的市场强化型政府的要求,由此更推动了国家的全面现代化。     

Crises of Confidence: Attitudes of the Domestic Bankers Towards the Credit Problem in Mexico

This paper analyses the Mexican banks' loan policies since 1995. Based on a series of interviews, we find that Mexico's financial system is currently experiencing two crises. First, banks lack confidence in the business practices of small and medium size enterprises. This negative attitude is reinforced by the bankers' perception of a culture of non-repayment. Banks also loan little to big businesses, which rely on the international money market. Second, bankers believe small and medium size business owners lack confidence in the Mexican financial system. Consequently, loan activities are down significantly. Socio-economic growth and development in Mexico will depend upon a profound change in structures, practices and attitudes surrounding loan activities.