从警察执法权威缺失透析暴力袭警问题

近年来,公安民警在执法过程中遭遇暴力袭击的事件频发,不仅严重阻碍了正当执法工作的进行,而且对人民警察的人身安全构成了极大威胁,本文试从当前警察执法权威缺失的角度对暴力袭警的问题进行探讨.     

电力系统恐怖袭击风险的定量分析

国家关键基础设施的安全问题关系到国家的稳定与经济命脉。随着技术的发展,各种基础设施之间的相互依赖性日益增强,使得其脆弱性增加。电力系统作为国家的关键基础设施,是恐怖袭击的重点目标之一。本文对恐怖主义属性进行了描述,采用定量风险分析方法对电力系统遭受恐怖袭击的风险进行评估。通过分析,寻找出电力系统的脆弱性,以便有针对性地采取有效措施降低系统的脆弱性,从而减缓电力系统遭受恐怖袭击风险。     

事故树定性分析法及其在矿井安全评价中的应用

在系统安全评价中,目前常采用事故树定性分析的三种主要方法:基本事件的结构重要度系数法、基本事件的割集重要度系数法、利用概率重要度性质求结构重要度法.通过对这三种方法在矿井安全评价中的应用进行分析、比较,提出采用基本事件的割集重要度系数法简单方便,并以煤电钻触电事故为例,介绍了其使用过程,建议在矿井评价中采纳.     

案事件调查中视频证据的内容解析

案事件的调查中,常常需要专业人员出具书面的报告,对视频记载的事件过程进行描述和解释。实际案件中,视频内容的分析报告多采用时间顺序,以语言描述为主。本文提出视频内容解析的概念,综合运用图像处理、图像测量、现场实验等技术方法,对视频中人、车、物等状态及其相互关系进行定性和定量的分析。解析结果以文字与图表相结合的形式呈现,可以更清晰完整地表述视频中反映的事件过程,已在多起重特大案事件的现场视频分析中应用。对于持续时间较长、关键目标动作较复杂的案事件形成视频解析报告,有助于对事件过程的还原,提高了视频证据的证明能力。     

地铁隧道恐怖爆炸伤亡区域预测与应急救援分析

地铁隧道空间狭长,行进列车内人员密集,且突发事故后不易逃生和救援,极易成为恐怖爆炸袭击的目标,而相关的规划设计、风险评估和应急响应尚不完善。基于此,结合中国现有地铁实际情况,借助有限元方法研究了地铁隧道内恐怖爆炸袭击破坏下的爆炸冲击波定量分布特征及人员伤亡区域分布特征,结合冲击波超压伤害准则建立了伤亡区域定量预测模型,并在此基础上从地铁隧道结构特征、地铁运行辅助系统等方面对此类恐怖袭击事件应急救援所面临的关键问题进行了剖析。研究成果将为地铁反恐怖防范提供必要的理论依据和技术支撑。     

外国投资安全审查中国家安全风险的判断

在我国外资市场深入开放的背景下,外资国家安全审查势必成为主要的投资监管措施之一,但是我国目前的外资国家安全审查制度并不成熟,特别是缺失外资国家安全风险判断机制等实质内容。外资国家安全风险的判断更倾向于盖然性分析,科学合理的风险评估方法是采用威胁——脆弱性的互动分析法。对于外资而言,国家安全脆弱性的关键在场是敏感产业、敏感技术、敏感设施、敏感信息、敏感地域等,这些敏感点易受攻击或者损害而难以防范或补救,从而严重危及国家安全。外资对国家安全的威胁来源是外资有意图与有能力或有机会损害国家安全。西奥多·H·莫兰总结了外资的三类威胁行为,并提出了国家安全风险评估的三威胁分析框架。该分析框架并不全面,仅考察了威胁行为,而外资的威胁体现为三个方面:意图、控制能力、威胁行为。国家安全风险是意图、控制能力、威胁行为与脆弱性这四个因素的互动结果,因此,更可行的外资国家安全风险判断路径是四因素变量互动分析。     

国外袭警犯罪刑事立法借鉴

大陆法国家的刑法与英美法国家的刑法对于袭击警察的违法犯罪行为的规定,大致可以分为以下三种不同的类型: 将威胁、袭击、伤害、杀害警察的行为规定为独立的犯罪,具有“袭警罪”这一独立的罪名。采用这类立法方法的主要为英美法国家。其中,美国联邦刑法和各州的刑法对于袭警犯罪的规定尤其详尽。根据美国刑法的一般原则,任何人都不得对正在执行公务的警察人员进行任何形式的威胁、袭击和伤害,不得接触警察的身体,而所谓的威胁既包括口头语言上的威胁,也包括具体行为的威胁,甚至威胁警察的直系亲属也构成同样的犯罪。按照部分州的刑法的…     

浅析公安边防部队反袭击战斗的法律依据

公安边防部队作为边境地区的一支执法部队,承担着打击边境地区暴力犯罪,维护边境地区社会治安安全与稳定的任务。从近年来的边境形势看,公安边防部队在执勤执法过程中时常遭受袭击,因此,研究边境地区反袭击战斗的法律依据能为作战部队提供战斗依据。本文主要研究反袭击战斗的合法性依据,界定袭击事件的法律依据和反袭击战斗整个过程中的法律依据。     

水氡致人死亡事故的鱼刺图与事故树分析

水氡具有危害性大、潜伏期长、隐蔽性高等特点。为了减少水氡伤害事故的发生,采用鱼刺图与事故树相结合的方法,对水氡致人死亡事故进行了系统分析。首先利用鱼刺图分析出水氡致人死亡事故的主要原因,包括:水氡接触人群、供水源、管理者和环境4个因素。然后将"水氡致人死亡"作为顶上事件编制事故树,分析得到11个底事件,对底事件的结构重要度进行了计算和排序,得到了18个最小割集;在此基础上构建了成功树,分析得到6个最小径集。最后,根据分析结果提出了相应的安全对策措施。     

公安边防部队巡逻勤务安全防护研究

公安边防部队在进行巡逻时受到不法分子袭击从而造成伤亡的事件时有发生，伤亡数字还在逐年增加。这不仅严重的扰乱了正常的边境地区秩序，而且还直接威胁到公安边防部队警官的人身安全。本文试分析公安边防部队在巡逻时受到伤害的主要原因，进而提出相应的改进措施，以加强公安边防部队在巡逻时的防护能力。     

Terrorism Risk, Resilience and Volatility: A Comparison of Terrorism Patterns in Three Southeast Asian Countries

Objective

This article explores patterns of terrorist activity over the period from 2000 through 2010 across three target countries: Indonesia, the Philippines and Thailand.

Methods

We use self-exciting point process models to create interpretable and replicable metrics for three key terrorism concepts: risk, resilience and volatility, as defined in the context of terrorist activity.

Results

Analysis of the data shows significant and important differences in the risk, volatility and resilience metrics over time across the three countries. For the three countries analysed, we show that risk varied on a scale from 0.005 to 1.61 “expected terrorist attacks per day”, volatility ranged from 0.820 to 0.994 “additional attacks caused by each attack”, and resilience, as measured by the number of days until risk subsides to a pre-attack level, ranged from 19 to 39 days. We find that of the three countries, Indonesia had the lowest average risk and volatility, and the highest level of resilience, indicative of the relatively sporadic nature of terrorist activity in Indonesia. The high terrorism risk and low resilience in the Philippines was a function of the more intense, less clustered pattern of terrorism than what was evident in Indonesia.

Conclusions

Mathematical models hold great promise for creating replicable, reliable and interpretable “metrics” to key terrorism concepts such as risk, resilience and volatility.     

Assessing nation-state-sponsored cyberattacks using aspects of Situational Crime Prevention

Research Summary

This study utilized a quantitative analysis of 246 cyberattack incidents reported in the Extremist CyberCrime Database to identify significant predictors of nation-state-sponsored cyberattacks relative to those performed by non-nation-state-sponsored ideological actors. Clarke and Newman's Situational Crime Prevention framework for terrorism was used to identify differential opportunities to successfully affect targets on the basis of tools, weapons, and the ability to access targets in online settings. The analysis noted nation-state-sponsored attacks were less likely to use high-visibility attack methods and more likely to utilize attack methods leading to data breaches. In addition, they were more likely to target state governments and military entities relative to ideological actors.

Policy Implications

Nation-state attacks are more difficult to identify or mitigate while in process, requiring a more robust national cybersecurity policy framework to be implemented that moves beyond current practices. There is a need to better utilize all aspects of government, from legislation to grant funding, in order to deter cyberattacks from continuing into the future.     

Lone Actor Terrorist Attack Planning and Preparation: A Data‐Driven Analysis,

This article provides an in‐depth assessment of lone actor terrorists’ attack planning and preparation. A codebook of 198 variables related to different aspects of pre‐attack behavior is applied to a sample of 55 lone actor terrorists. Data were drawn from open‐source materials and complemented where possible with primary sources. Most lone actors are not highly lethal or surreptitious attackers. They are generally poor at maintaining operational security, leak their motivations and capabilities in numerous ways, and generally do so months and even years before an attack. Moreover, the “loneness” thought to define this type of terrorism is generally absent; most lone actors uphold social ties that are crucial to their adoption and maintenance of the motivation and capability to commit terrorist violence. The results offer concrete input for those working to detect and prevent this form of terrorism and argue for a re‐evaluation of the “lone actor” concept.     

Terrorism Risk Forecasting by Ideology

The purpose of the present study is to produce foresights on terrorism. For the first time in the literature, we test the predictive validity of risk terrain modeling to forecast terrorism. Because the relevant literature suggests that target selection and the places where terrorist attacks occur are related to a group’s strategies, we also investigate whether and how violent terrorist acts vary with respect to their surroundings in the same jurisdiction when the ideology is the point of comparison. Separatist and leftist terrorist groups committed 1152 violent terrorist acts between 2008 and 2012 in Istanbul, Turkey. Our analysis begins with a comparison of targets and risk factors by the ideology of the perpetrators for 857 separatist and 295 leftist terrorist incidents. After identifying high-risk locations, we test the predictive validity of risk terrain modeling. The study results showed that context and spatial influence—the risky areas of terrorism—vary by the nature of the ideology in the jurisdiction. Practical implications also are discussed.     

Situational prevention of terrorism. Remarks from the field of counterterrorism in the Netherlands on Newman and Clarke’s Policing Terrorism

In this paper I shall discuss how criminal investigation might contribute to a situational approach to terrorism. Therefore I discuss Policing Terrorism by Newman and Clarke, and confront it with experiences from work in the field of counterterrorism: criminal investigations at the Dutch National Police Agency (NPA). I demonstrate that Newman and Clarke have too narrow a scope on policing terrorism, in particular when it comes to the role of criminal investigation. They restrict their focus to local police work in the phases immediately before and after a terrorist attack. This is unfortunate because case files show that criminal investigators play a central role in the prevention of terrorism. They intervene in earlier phases of terrorist preparation, target a wider range of terrorist offences than terrorist attacks, and prosecute radicals for their non-terrorist offences. Furthermore, criminal investigations offer insights that might be of help in developing an SCP approach to terrorism.     

Estimating Country-Level Terrorism Trends Using Group-Based Trajectory Analyses: Latent Class Growth Analysis and General Mixture Modeling

Recent criminological research has used latent class growth analysis (LCGA), a form of group-based trajectory analysis, to identify distinct terrorism trends and areas of high terrorism activity at the country-level. The current study contributes to the literature by assessing the robustness of recent findings generated by one type of group-based analysis, LCGA, to changes in measurement and statistical methodology. Using data from the Global Terrorism Database (GTD), we consider the challenges and advantages of applying group-based analysis to macro-level terrorism data. We summarize and classify country-level patterns of domestic and transnational terrorism using two types of group-based analyses, LCGA and an alternative yet similar modeling approach, general mixture modeling (GMM). We evaluate the results from each approach using both substantive and empirical criteria, highlighting the similarities and differences provided by both techniques. We conclude that both group-based models have utility for terrorism research, yet for the purposes of identifying hot spots of terrorist activity, LCGA results provide greater policy utility.     

A social psychological critique of the Saudi terrorism risk reduction initiative

Of great concern to policy makers and detention system administrators who face the need to release detainees suspected of terrorism is how to do so in ways that minimize risk to national security. Among responses taken by detention system administrators is the establishment of so-called ‘deradicalization’ (or ‘disengagement,’ or ‘terrorism risk reduction’) programs in which select detainees may participate to promote their own release. The present analysis critiques the Saudi terrorism risk reduction initiative in accord with two social psychological theories that are especially pertinent to the topic – identity theory and frame alignment theory – and offers policy suggestions based upon the theoretical strengths and weaknesses of the Saudi model.     

Towards a more proactive approach to brand protection: development of the Organisational Risk Assessment for Product Counterfeiting (ORAPC)

Through an adaptation of a terrorism risk assessment model, this article develops an initial proactive product counterfeiting risk assessment that is designed to focus upon a specific product’s risk for being counterfeited. The goal of developing this risk assessment is to help corporations identify the products that are most at risk for counterfeiting, thereby giving them the ability to focus their resources in the areas where the greatest opportunities for crime are present. This risk assessment is intended to serve as the first line of defence in a comprehensive and proactive brand owner strategy centred on identifying product-specific counterfeiting risk. The assessment comprises three factors that, together, capture a product’s counterfeiting risk level: the threat of product counterfeiting, the brand owner’s vulnerability to product counterfeiting and the potential consequences of a counterfeit product entering the market and reaching consumers.     

Patterns of Onset and Decline Among Terrorist Organizations

Despite considerable speculation among terrorism researchers regarding the conditions leading to organizational desistance from terrorism, quantitative analysis of terrorism frequently focuses on terrorist attacks as the unit of analysis, resulting in a near complete absence of analyses of terrorist organizations themselves. Moreover, research on organizations that engage in terrorism has generally been limited to case studies of individual organizations. Toward a more general understanding of what conditions predict organizational desistance from terrorism, this study uses newly available data from the Global Terrorism Database to analyze the terrorist activity of 557 organizations that were active for at least 365 days between 1970 and 2008. Much like research on conventional crime, prior research on terrorism has focused almost exclusively on the onset of criminal behavior and has neglected determinants of declining activity. Here I use group-based trajectory models to investigate patterns of decline in organization-level terrorist activity. In particular I examine how patterns of onset relate to patterns of decline among these organizations. I first estimate the trajectory models for the organizations’ frequency of attacks, and then calculate the annual ratio of attacks to attacks-at-peak for each organization in order to isolate patterns of decline, independent of the magnitude of activity. I then repeat the trajectory analysis to determine if the relative shape of the organizational trajectory has significance beyond the overall frequency of attacks. I find that the speed and magnitude of an organization’s emergence are correlated with its longevity such that those organizations characterized by rapid onset are two to three times more likely than those characterized by moderate onset to reach moderate or high levels of attacks per year. Likewise, as the rate and overall volume of attacks at onset increase, so does the likelihood that the group will follow a persistent pattern of decline. I conclude with a discussion of the implications of patterns of decline among terrorist organizations for research and policy.