Productivity slowdown and misallocation in the post-recession: What prevents recovery?

This study explores the effects of the 2008 global economic crisis on the labor allocation and productivity in Luxembourg. The analysis is based on firm-level data from manufacturing and non-financial service sectors and finds a dramatic productivity slowdown after 2008. The study reveals that the cleansing effect of recession did not function effectively which would otherwise improve the efficiency in the labor allocation and counterbalance the productivity slowdown. The firm entry and job creation rates are lower in the post-crisis period, but the job destruction is not significantly altered by the crisis. The findings call attention for the strict employment protection legislation that possibly plays a role in preventing reallocation towards more efficient establishments. Relaxing the employment protection legislation simultaneously with facilitating the entry and growth of young firms is expected to promote creative destruction, improve allocative efficiency and speed up the post-crisis recovery.     

Decomposing firm-level productivity growth and assessing its determinants: evidence from the Americas

This paper provides novel empirical evidence on productivity growth in the manufacturing sector in Chile, Colombia, Mexico and Peru. Relying on plant-level data, we first decompose productivity and productivity growth into plant-level growth and market allocation forces. While the average productivity of the survivors is higher than the overall contribution of reallocation forces, during recessions the inverse is true and reallocation gives a positive, albeit small, contribution to aggregate productivity growth. Next we analyze how policy measures can determine allocative efficiency levels and growth, and find important scope for action on education, financial regulation, and structural reforms.     

Modelling wages in centrally planned economies: The case of Poland

The main idea developed in this paper is that rising excess demand for the labour force results in higher growth of wages over the ‘notional’ rate of growth. The rationale is that employees change their jobs searching for higher wages, and employers are willing to offer higher pay in order to get additional workers. This relationship is highly nonlinear, and can be regarded as an extension of the idea known as the Phillips curve to the area of ‘negative’ rate of unemployment. Additionally, one can observe that if the disequilibrium intensity in the labour market is small, its changes cause stronger reactions of wages in strategic branches than in the remaining sectors of the economy. It is similar to the situation of excess demand for labour. If there is a high rate of unemployment, reductions of wages affect more branches of secondary importance for the economy. The empirical investigation is based on Polish data covering the time period from 1964 through 1984. As excess demand for labour is unobservable, a proxy is used as an indicator of disequilibrium. It is introduced to the equation explaining the rate of growth of average wages, in addition to the rate of productivity growth of labour and the rate of inflation. Estimates are derived for 10 industry branches and sectors of the economy. The results confirm the initial hypothesis.     

Assessing the Effect of Incentive Regulation on Productive Efficiency in Telecommunications in the United States

The use of incentive regulation in telecommunications in the United States requires accurate measurement of the change in productivity. An approach to measuring productivity change, the Malmquist index approach, is introduced that not only provides a measure of that change but also allows for a decomposition into two mutually exclusive and exhaustive components—changes in technical efficiency over time and shifts in technology over time. Using annual data on four output measures and six input measures for the period 1988 to 1999 for nineteen local exchange carriers, the results indicate that productivity increased by about 5.5 percent per year. This growth is due primarily to innovation rather than improvements in efficiency. Of the nineteen LECs in the sample, eleven were operating efficiently throughout the entire 1988–1999 period. Of the remaining eight, four showed a slight improvement in efficiency while the efficiency of four declined. In the aggregate, however, there was virtually no change in efficiency. Finally, a comparison is made between two methods of estimating the change in productivity. The conventional growth accounting approach yields a lower estimate of the rate of change in productivity than the Malmquist index approach yield. The difference between these estimates is interpreted as the lower bound of the bias associated with the conventional growth accounting approach to measuring the growth in productivity.     

The Second CSF (Delors' II Package) for Greece and its Impact on the Greek Economy

The Greek Community Support Framework (CSF), which is operational during the period 1994-99, is designed to finance large-scale development projects and investment in physical and human capital in Greece, aiming to gear the economy onto a sustainable path of economic growth and development. This process of real convergence is viewed as a prerequisite for the cohesion of EU and the sustainability of the nominal convergence objective of the Maastricht Treaty in the way to Economic and Monetary Union of Europe. The paper provides, first, an overview of the Greek CSF and, second, an ex ante assessment of the effects that the Second CSF is likely to have on the economy of Greece. The analysis delineates four types of CSF actions according to whether they aim at (i) raising 'hard' infrastructure, (ii) financing 'soft' infrastructure interventions (such as R&D, health services, etc), (iii) supporting productive investment, and, (iv) training the labour force into new skills and improving the civil service. The effects are analysed first assuming that CSF operates only through raising the components of income and aggregate demand, and then by incorporating externalities on the productivity of output in various sectors and the reduction in costs. We find that in the absence of externalities, output rises during the period of the CSF 1994-99 but then returns to the benchmark course without any lasting improvement. When all types of externalities are taken into account, total output in year 2010 will be higher than baseline by an impressive 9.5%, and will continue to grow at a rate faster by 0.26% per annum than would be otherwise, while employment expands by an average of 95.000 new jobs.     

Measuring Technological Change in Greece

This paper uses the Growth Accounting methodology to estimate technological change, as well as labor and capital productivity in the various sectors of the Greek economy over the period 1988–1998. The results show that the technological level, as measured through annual growth in Total Factor Productivity, has remained practically unchanged. Meanwhile, technological change accounts for about 40% of economic growth, which is slightly lower compared with the relative performance of other O.E.C.D. countries. Finally, our main findings are, in general terms, consistent with estimates by other researchers.      

An empirical study of openness and convergence in labor productivity in the Chinese provinces

Based on the theoretical framework of the Solow growth model, this paper employs a dynamic panel data approach to examine the impact of openness on growth and convergence in labor productivity in the Chinese provinces during the period 1984–2008. The study finds that regional openness has a significantly positive effect on regional growth in labor productivity in the Chinese provinces. When regional heterogeneity and regional openness are accounted for, the study finds fast conditional convergence in labor productivity across the Chinese provinces. As a byproduct, this study also estimates the structural parameters of the aggregate production function in the case of China. In sum, the major findings of this study lend strong support to the claim that openness promotes growth of labor productivity in China.     

Technological Strengths in Mature Sectors--An Impediment or an Asset for Regional Economic Restructuring? The Case of Multimedia and Biotechnology in Baden-Wurttemberg

Baden-Württemberg's innovation system, which is characterised by a high degree of institutionalisation as well as a predominance of incremental innovations and medium technology finds itself in a profound process of transition. The paper discusses whether Baden-Württemberg's strength as an industrial district dominated by mature industries is an impediment or rather an asset with regard to developing new promising technological sectors in the region. The paper focuses on two newly emerging sectors: multimedia and biotechnology. Because of the strong orientation of actors in Baden-Württemberg to established companies in the core industries and the dominance of established organizational networks there is a lack of stimuli for developing new industries. Thus, institutional innovation and new networks are required to speed up the growth of the new industries. Baden-Württemberg can be expected to cope with the transition to the extent that it builds a close connection between its existing sectoral strengths and the new growth industries.     

Transition accounting for India in a multi-sector dynamic general equilibrium model

Using a quantitative methodology designed specifically for emerging economies, we measure the components of India’s economic growth over the period 1960–2005. Our approach accounts for time-varying parameters, transitional dynamics and non-linear trends. We find that increased productivity in the service sector, facilitated by a structural shift toward services, is the principal driver of India’s economic growth. Our measures also suggest that the allocation of inputs across sectors has not improved over this period, and in the case of labor appears to have significantly worsened. We further find that fluctuations in output around its trend are due primarily to fluctuations in sector-specific total factor productivity, with fluctuations in labor market distortions and labor taxes also playing important roles. In the period 1960–1980, productivity fluctuations in the agricultural sector are the dominant source of cycles. Since then, productivity fluctuations in the manufacturing and service sectors have been more important.     

Utilization of fixed capital and Soviet industrial growth

Growth rates of output and factor productivity in Soviet industry fluctuate around a long-term downward trend. These fluctuations can be partially explained by fluctuations in the growth of services of capital. The capacity utilization rate is taken as a proxy for the extent of utilization of capital stock. Variations in the capacity utilization rate explain a significant part of the changes in the rate of growth of total factor productivity between 1970–1983. Declines in the capacity utilization rate are caused by errors in the allocation of investment, which create an imbalance of capacities between raw-materials and manufacturing sectors.     

Do Computers Make Output Harder to Measure?

In recent years, U.S. productivity growth accelerated sharply in manufacturing, but has remained sluggish in the most computer-intensive service industries. This paper explores the possibility that information technology is generating output that is increasingly hard to measure in non-manufacturing industries, which contributes to the divergence in industry productivity growth rates. Our results suggest that measurement error in 13 computer-intensive, non-manufacturing industries increased between 0.74 and 1.57 percentage points per year in the 1990s, which understates annual aggregate productivity growth by 0.10 to 0.20 percentage points in the 1990s. This adds to an estimated 0.22 to 0.30 percentage point error from the increasing share of aggregate output in these hard-to-measure industries. Thus, increasing measurement problems may understate aggregate productivity growth by an additional 0.32 to 0.50 percentage points per year in the 1990s and play an important role in understanding recent productivity trends at the industry level.     

Robotisation of the manufacturing industries in the EU: Convergence or divergence?

This paper investigates whether convergence or divergence of robot densities in the manufacturing industries of 24 EU countries occurred over the period from 1995 to 2015. An answer to this question permits immediate conclusions with regard to the success of convergence of labour productivities within the manufacturing industries of the EU, since it is expected that the use of robots will contribute to the growth of labour productivity. The empirical analysis is based on the robot data of the International Federation of Robotics and uses the convergence testing approach proposed by Rodrik (Q J Econ 128(1):165–204, 2013). Taking all results together, empirical evidence points to non-convergence of robot densities for a first period from 1995 to 2005, while there is relatively fast conditional as well as unconditional convergence for the second period from 2005 to 2015.

     

Structural change, technology, and economic growth: Brazil and the CIBS in a comparative perspective

Schumpeterian growth theory stresses the role of structural change in long run growth. Countries which increase the share of technology-intensive sectors in their economic structures benefit more from technological learning and innovation. In addition, they are more able to respond to changes in the international markets and to compete in sectors whose demand grows at higher rates. The paper compares Brazil (and to a lesser extent the CIBS group of countries) from the point of view of the direction and intensity of structural change. It is suggested that structural change has been relatively weak in Brazil and that this has been associated with a less dynamic growth performance since the 1980s.     

Tax relief,tax wedge and regional employment: evidence from Italy

In this paper I overview the legislative framework, referred to the Italian policies of tax relief on labour income and Fiscalizzazione, then I investigate the impact of the tax wedge on regional employment in Italy. The results show a negative effect, especially in the northern regions, due to the presence of a developed decentralized bargaining level that may lead to mechanisms of real wage resistance with negative consequences on employment, not only in the short term. The evidence suggests a differentiated effect not only among regions but also among sectors that might suggests to focus these policies on regions and sectors where the effect of the tax wedge on employment is greater, other than to promote the development of a second-level bargaining even in the South that could take into account local labour productivity changes.     

The Malthusian intermezzo: Women's wages and human capital formation between the late Middle Ages and the demographic transition of the 19th century

The paper offers a new explanation for ‘the great conundrum’, the acceleration of population growth in England in the second half of the 18th century. It is argued that it was not only population growth that was ‘different’ in England, but the stagnation of the rise of literacy and of human capital in general, seems to be an anomaly of this period. This ‘conundrum’ has been explained in the following way. It is demonstrated that in England the gender wage gap increased a lot during the early modern period, which was caused by: (a) the switch from post Black Death labour scarcity to labour surplus, which in particular harmed the economic position of women, and (b) changes in the structure of agriculture, leading to the rise of large-scale, capital intensive and labour extensive farms, which had a very limited demand for female (wage) labour. This is also suggested by the fact that on the Continent (in the Netherlands) a much smaller decline of female wages occurred, because there family farms continued to be quite important. Moreover, the decline of English wages had important effects on its demographic development. It helps to explain the decline of the average age of marriage of in particular women between 1600 and 1800, and the related increase in fertility that occurred in this period — resulting in a much faster rate of population growth after 1750 than elsewhere in Western-Europe. It also helps to explain the stagnation in human capital formation that occurred during the 18th and early 19th century — again a feature peculiar for the English development in these years. The explanation of ‘the great conundrum’ is therefore intimately linked to the changing position of women on the labour market and within marriage.     

Tripartite decomposition of labor productivity growth,FDI and human development: evidence from transition economies

This study investigates the relative contribution of technological change, technological catch-up and capital deepening as drivers of labor productivity growth in 14 transition economies during the period 2000–2012. In addition, the study extends the usual decomposition of labor productivity growth by encompassing the impact of foreign direct investment (FDI) on labor productivity growth in transition economies. To illustrate the relative contribution of FDI as a driver of labor productivity growth, we present a simple theoretical model that augments Kohli [Labour productivity vs. total factor productivity. IFC Bulletin 20 (April), Irving Fisher Committee on Central Bank Statistics, International Statistical Institute, 2005] and Grosskopf et al. (Aggregation, efficiency, and measurement, Springer, New York, pp 97–116, 2007) decomposition of the labor productivity. The insights derived in this model provide an underpinning to the empirical analysis in this study. Using Blundell–Bond dynamic panel General Method of Moments estimators, the main finding of dynamic panel data regressions shows that technological catch-up, technological change, and human development level, trade and demographic of population ageing are the main factors that affect labor productivity growth in transition countries. Furthermore, the findings of dynamic panel data regressions show insignificant positive impact of FDI on productivity growth in transition economies. One explanation is that the 14 transition economies that are included in this study do not reach a minimum human development threshold level.     

Investment-decision criteria and resource allocation in transition

This paper develops an analytical framework tointegrate static and dynamic effects of theoreticallyrelevant and practically applied investment-decisioncriteria on the marginal rate of substitution betweeninvestment and labour. The new propositions are relatedto the ranking of relative present value, Kalecki'sindex of efficiency and the static version ofrecoupment period criteria. Investors in post-communisteconomies have switched from the recoupment period tothe criteria based on discounting. This is aninstitutional change typical for these economies. Itimplies a choice of techniques with lower investmentintensity, which is best supported by government'spolicy to promote labour mobility.     

Ranking of sectors based on fuzzy importance measure

The changing nature of policy variables specific to any planned developmental programme often leads to conflicting decisional problems regarding the identification of thrust areas. Hence the inherent requirement is for a composite index which eases out such ambiguous choice issues. The present paper introduces the measure of sectoral importance which is capable of encompassing different variables with their associated weights and ranks sectors in an economy based on such a measure. However, the term importance suggests the qualitativeness and subjectivity involved in defining such a concept and thus establishes the need for the concepts of fuzzy mathematics. The theory of fuzzy subsets is capable of dealing with qualitative variables within a quantitative framework. The sectoral importance measures derived from the sectoral output linkages, employment multipliers and value added multipliers, have been represented as fuzzy subsets, or to be precise, as fuzzy numbers. A comparison of these numbers through the binary approach of determination of the measure of relative strength provides the basis for the ranking of sectors. The novelty of the approach lies in its simplicity and flexibility in treating qualitative factors which characterise most decision support socio economic planning problems. The validity of the exercise has been tested by applying it to the economy of West Bengal, a State of India.     

Getting out what we put in: productivity of the English National Health Service

Many countries are incorporating direct measures of non-market outputs in the national accounts. For any particular output to be included there has to be data about it for two adjacent periods. This is problematic because the classification of non-market outputs is often subject to wholesale revision. We outline the challenges associated with classification changes and propose a solution. To illustrate we construct output and input indices and estimate productivity growth of the English National Health Service (NHS) for the period 2003-2004 to 2007-2008. Our index of output growth incorporates all care provided to NHS patients and captures improvements in survival rates, waiting times and disease management. We find that more patients are being treated and the quality of the care they receive has been improving. We implement our approach to dealing with changes as to how health services are defined and show what effect this has on estimates of output growth. Our index of input growth captures all labour, intermediate and capital inputs into health service production and we improve on how capital has been measured in the past. Inputs have increased over time but there has also been a slowdown since 2005-2006, primarily the result of a levelling off in staff recruitment and less reliance on the use of agency staff. Productivity is assessed by comparing output growth with growth in inputs, the net effect being constant productivity growth between 2003-2004 and 2007-2008.     

Determinants of Export Performance: Evidence from Chinese Industries

This paper empirically investigates the determinants of Chinese export performance using cross-sectional data at the industry level. We find that the export performance of different industries is significantly influenced by labour costs, foreign direct investment (FDI) and firm size, and thus open to a variety of explanations offered by traditional and new trade theories. These findings indicate that Chinese industrial sectors have realised their comparative advantages, but point to the need for the industries to upgrade their export structure in order to sustain growth.