Anti-Corruption Strategies and Democratization in Bosnia-Herzegovina

There is an international consensus that corruption undermines the democratic process and the legitimacy of government. Anti-corruption strategies are increasingly becoming an integral part of democratization programmes in non-western states. Where there are doubts over the effectiveness of these programmes they have tended to be expressed in relation to the level of social and economic development necessary to ensure a separation between private and public spheres. The experience of extensive international anti-corruption policies in Bosnia provides an opportunity to assess the relationship between anti-corruption initiatives and democratization in the European context. Taking a broad systemic approach to tackling political corruption, it was assumed that international policy in this area could strengthen the authority of democratic political institutions, encourage public participation and rebuild relations of trust within and between communities. This study of the impact of systemic anti-corruption strategies focuses on the effectiveness of these initiatives in meeting democratization goals. The results have been disappointing. The reasons for this may lie in the initial assumptions, not because they assume a higher level of social and economic development than Bosnian society has attained but because they have a narrow reductive view of the political process.     

波黑局势新发展及其前景

波黑根据代顿协议结束战争、实现立国15年来,作为前欧洲热点余热尚存,各族之间的纠葛与纷争不时发生。当前面临2010年大选之际,各族更是对立严重,矛盾升温。这引起波黑国家催生者和看护者的美国与欧盟的严重关注。在其强力干预下,波黑大选前后的动荡局势不致失控,该国仍将维持三族勉强共处的固有政体形态。     

亚洲和平崛起与国际社会

本文是作者在博鳌亚洲论坛圆桌会议上的发言。作者站在世界历史的角度上对亚洲的和平崛起与欧美国家当年崛起的经济、政治、科技文化环境和条件进行比较,论述亚洲和平崛起的必然性和可能性以及对国际社会的积极影响。     

中国国际角色的转换与国际社会的认知

角色具有客观和主观的两重性规范。中国国际角色的客观性是依据自身实力的角色定位,但这种客观角色定位常常被国际社会错误领会和认知,导致国际社会对中国国际角色的主观建构与中国国际角色的客观定位有很大的偏离,从而造成中国与其他行为体之间的角色紧张和冲突。“中国威胁论”、“中国崩溃论”等与这种偏离存在着直接的关系,而这些错误认知来自于美国等西方大国对中国过去的国际角色和现存国际体系评判的固化,这种固化忽视了中国在崛起过程中国际角色的不稳定性,也忽视了中国国际新角色的时代背景和发展条件。     

New Development of the Situation in Bosnia-Herzegovina and Its Prospects

With the conclusion of the Dayton Accord, the war in Bosnia- Herzegovina came to an end and the state was established. But in the past 15 years, ethnic disputes and conflicts in the country broke out at times. In the face of the forthcoming general election in 2010, the ethnic antagonism becomes increasingly fierce and their contradictions are intensified. Being both creators and protectors of Bosnia-Herzegovina,     

试析当前全球气候变化新特点及其对国际社会的影响

一、全球气候变化问题的特点 (一)全球气候变化问题的政治性 "全球气候变化问题并非一开始就是一个国际政治性问题,国际政治也并非一开始就涉及气候变化问题,气候变化问题政治化有一个过程"①.随着人类大工业的发展,气候变化给人类带来的威胁日益加重,国际社会对这一问题的关注程度也在逐步加深.     

中东伊斯兰地区与国际体系的关系缘何紧张?——次国家行为体视角的分析

本文提出了中东伊斯兰地区与西方主导下的国际体系处于紧张状态的基本观点,并从政治、经济、文化等角度进行了简要说明,同时在对相关文献进行梳理的基础上确立了本文的研究视角.中东次国家行为体导致中东与国际体系关系紧张的根源在于:内外因素的共同作用导致了中东地区体系的脆弱性、破碎性和可渗透性,创造了民族、宗教政治组织崛起的土壤,催化了中东地区次国家行为体的反体系运动.     

Intergovernmental Organization Memberships: Examining Political Community and the Attributes of International Organizations

Why are states jointly members in certain intergovernmental organizations (IGOs) but not others? Despite the proliferation of IGOs and renewed interest in this topic, we lack systematic research to answer this question. Our theory of political community explains why dyads of states are likely to be common members in particular types of IGOs. We analyze and compare functionalist and Deutschian communitarian perspectives about IGO memberships. We test our theory using newly available data on IGO mandates and institutional structure, which allows us to make specific predictions about the types of IGO to which dyads become members. We show that dyads that are economically dependent, and/or democratic and enjoying enduring peace, are more likely to join those IGOs that possess high levels of institutional structure. Militarized interstate conflicts reduce the likelihood of states sharing membership in common IGO, but not substantially, whereas development and alliances also increase IGO memberships between states. Trade ties, however, are the most important determinant of joint membership between states in the most institutionalized IGOs, which is congruent with security communities.     

Do All Roads Lead to Brussels? Analysis of the Different Trajectories of Croatia,Serbia-Montenegro and Bosnia-Herzegovina

The article examines the main factors that have affected the prospects of Euro-Atlantic integration for Croatia, Serbia-Montenegro, and Bosnia-Herzegovina (BiH). For each of the three countries, the internal and external factors affecting progress are examined separately in both the domestic and international spheres, allowing for a comparative assessment of the role of the international community and for analysis of different ways of addressing key regional issues in the individual states. The central argument is that the difference in the pace of Euro-Atlantic integration among these three states has been a result of both EU policies and specific internal political issues within each of those countries. The article concludes with two possible scenarios for the region—one of rapid integration, the other of delayed progress resulting in a dangerous ‘ghettoisation’ of the Western Balkans—and emphasises the role of the international community's policies as a strong determinant of the outcome.     

第三部门与国际政治

冷战结束以来 ,国际政治行为体日益多样化 ,其中非政府间国际组织 (第三部门行为体 )已经日益演变成为一类具有重要意义的国际行为体 ,在国际政治舞台上有其独特的重要作用和影响。对第三部门行为体的研究 ,不仅是准确反映国际政治发展的一种客观需要 ,而且有利于推动国际政治研究范式的革新 ,具有重要的现实意义和理论价值。     

“大变革时代”与美国全球战略的重塑

随着“后危机时代”、“后拉登时代”、“后撤军时代”、“后威权时代”、“后美国时代”等多个时代特征同时开启、相互叠加,世界正进入前所未有的“大变革时代”。为迎接这一严峻挑战,奥巴马政府有意识地推进美国全球战略的重塑,并取得了一些成绩。但由于客观形势的高度复杂性、战略思维的主观局限性及国内政治的持续困扰等因素,其全球战略重塑并不一帆风顺,并存在明显缺陷。     

北非中东政局剧变及其主要国际涵义

2010年底起于突尼斯、2011年以来迅速扩散的北非、中东动荡引起了世界广泛关注,其发生的根源、发展趋势及其影响、对中国的启示及中国的应对也是目前我国政界、学界集中探讨的热点问题。当前中东变局的深层根源是什么?骨牌效应会扩散到哪里?会不会改变中东政治力量对比甚至重塑中东战略格局?会不会影响全球战略态势?中东变局对中国的经济影响与战略影响如何?中国从中东变局的发生根源及其影响中可得到些什么启示?围绕这些问题,中国现代国际关系研究院《现代国际关系》杂志社于2011年3月10日举办了题为当前北非、中东变局及其影响的学术研讨会,来自北京大学、清华大学、中国人民大学、中共中央党校、国防大学、北京航空航天大学、北京外国语大学、南开大学、中国社会科学院及中国现代国际关系研究院的20多位专家学者与会。他们从不同角度就上述问题展开了热烈而深入的探讨。现将部分与会专家学者的主要观点辑录如下,以飨读者。     

“天安号”事件与国际危机管理

2010年3月26日发生在朝鲜半岛西部海域的韩国“天安号”反潜护卫舰爆炸沉没事件,韩国政府认定为朝鲜攻击所致。韩国对事件的认定有着明显的政治主导意识和政治倾向,企图使朝韩危机从双边扩大为地区多边甚至超地区的国际危机演化,这将为美国谋求扩展在东亚的战略利益提供机会。国际危机管理是国家在维护国际安全稳定中经常面对的课题,如果美韩坚持把实现自身的战略利益作为危机管理的目标,朝鲜半岛危机则始终存在继续升级的危险。     

论东盟经济共同体与“一带一路”

本文论述东盟经济共同体与"一带一路"的对接和合作,认为伴随着东盟经济共同体的建设和"一带一路"倡议的实施,东盟经济共同体与"一带一路"倡议可逐步实现相互对接,并将取得优势互补和合作共赢的经济效应。     

从国际法角度看国际恐怖主义的界定问题

“9·11”国际恐怖主义事件将联合国和整个国际社会的反对恐怖主义斗争推向了高潮。然而 ,在国际法上虽然有一些具体的打击个别恐怖主义行为的公约但却不存在一个普遍接受的国际恐怖主义的定义。这是因为国际法学界对于是否有必要做出一个综合性的“普遍同意的定义”存有较大分歧。联合国组织在与国际恐怖主义行为进行斗争的同时也尝试着界定这个概念 ,但都没有成功。界定国际恐怖主义的主要困难是它具有较强的政治性 ,一些问题 ,例如国家恐怖主义、民族解放运动等等 ,都为界定工作带来实际困难。实际上 ,没有一个综合性的定义并不妨碍对具体的国际恐怖主义行为进行打击。