Is a Just and Lasting Peace Possible?

The right-wing drift in Israeli public opinion that brought Benjamin Netanyahu to power for the fourth time has deepened the existing political stalemate, sharpened internal Palestinian discontent with the Palestinian Authority (PA), and further undermined its legitimacy. After nearly a quarter of a century of negotiations, since the Madrid conference in late 1991, the PA appears to have reached the end of the line. Its attempt to “internationalize” the conflict by seeking recognition as a state by the UN Security Council and the General Assembly is meant in part to gain time and fill the political gap. Palestinian civil society groups perceive Boycott, Divestment, and Sanctions (BDS) as an alternative strategy to the failed “negotiated process” to end occupation even if it is a long term effort. A stable and just peace does not appear possible in the near future, and in the long run the nature of the solution need not be the one deemed at present as the only possible one.     

Moldova Between Europe and Russia: Inoculating Against the Colored Contagion?

In the elections of March 6, 2005, the Party of Communists of the Republic of Moldova (PCRM) won re-election in an OSCE-approved parliamentary vote lacking large-scale electoral fraud and widespread popular mobilization. Grounding their analysis in the political science literature on "colored" revolutions, interviews, and news reports, two political scientists examine this outcome, asking why a colored revolution did not occur in Moldova. Moldova's "orange evolution" is analyzed in terms of structural preconditions and catalytic factors for colored revolutions as well as broader questions about possible paths out of the patronal and patrimonial forms of government dominating the CIS.     

After the Ukrainian crisis: Is there a place for Russia?

Revolutionary protests in Ukraine in winter 2014 resulted in the annexation of Crimea by Russia, and an anti-terrorist operation launched by Kiev in eastern Ukraine. What was a totally internal manifestation of displeasure with governmental policy transformed into an international security crisis. While Kiev considers it a Russian–Ukrainian conflict, Moscow perceives it as a Russian–West confrontation, claiming that the crisis was provoked by NATO’s desire to enlarge into the region where Russia’s vital interests lie. The article analyses the sources of the current Ukrainian–Russian conflict and looks into Russia’s place in post-crisis Ukraine. As history has shown, even those states which used to fight each other for centuries managed not only to find peace but to establish constructive relationships. Still, with the shift from material to ideological confrontation, there are fewer and fewer options for compromise.     

Is Russia a militocracy? Conceptual issues and extant findings regarding elite militarization

The dominant paradigm for understanding contemporary Russia holds that Vladimir Putin's tenure in office has been accompanied by a massive influx of former KGB and military personnel – so-called “siloviki” – into positions of power and authority throughout the polity and economy. Claims of extensive elite militarization, however, are largely based on the analyses of only one research program and, moreover, the validity of the estimates produced by that research program is open to question on numerous grounds. In this article, we review existing research on elite militarization in Russia; discuss a series of conceptual and empirical issues that need to be resolved if valid and meaningful estimation of military–security representation is to be achieved; introduce new findings; and evaluate the totality of existing evidence regarding whether the Russian state under Putin deserves to be labeled a militocracy. We find that the most straightforward reading of existing data indicates that the percentage of siloviki in the political elite during Putin's first two terms as president was approximately half of that which has been widely reported in both scholarship and the media, and also declined during the Medvedev presidency. In addition, our analysis of a broader cross section of the elite estimates military–security representation during the Putin presidency to have been lower still. Overall, existing data paint a less alarming picture of the depths to which siloviki have penetrated the corridors of power since 2000 than has been commonly portrayed and thereby cast doubt on Russia's status as an “FSB state.” On the other hand, past trends also provide some basis for expecting that the numbers of siloviki will once again rise during Putin's current presidential term.     

Russia and its supporters in Europe: trans-ideology à la carte?

The impact of crisis in Ukraine on EU–Russia relations appears twofold. On the one hand, it revealed the high degree of disdain all across Europe to Moscow's neo-imperial approach. On the other hand, it unveiled a great deal of affection and sympathy to Kremlin's policy among a number of non-mainstream but significant groups within the EU. In this article, we mirror the major troubles of today’s Europe, as seen from Moscow’s perspective, with four nodal points of the Kremlin’s hegemonic discourse: social conservatism, nation state-based policies, independence from the US influence and the glorification of Russia’s self-inflicted mission of fighting contemporary neo-fascism. Our analysis of non-mainstream political parties in EU member states, sensitive and responsive to the Kremlin’s agenda, suggests that Putin's regime and Russia sympathizers in Europe pragmatically use each other, thereby challenging the classical ideological paradigms. This translates Russia’s policies into a trans-ideological repertoire of different discourses that differently resonate among the groups of Russia sympathizers.     

A Pragmatic Diplomat in Pluralization: Yoshio Okawara and the Restoration of Postwar Japan–US Relations

In this article, the author will focus on the role former Japanese diplomat Yoshio Okawara played in the “restoration” in the context of postwar Japan–US relations, particularly in his capacity as Japan’s ambassador to the US. During the 1980s, a period when trade friction between Japan and the US was particularly intense, and diplomatic relations pluralized, Okawara emerged as a “pragmatist,” striving to vanquish the “perception gap” between the two nations. Today, the Donald J. Trump administration seems to be shaking up the global system of free trade. In the current situation, there is much to learn from the example set by the diplomat Okawara, a pragmatist who throughout his life did so much to narrow the perception gap that caused the trade frictions of the 1980s and to restore the Japan–US relationship that had been ravaged by war.     

Political Opposition in Russia: A Dying Species?

A specialist on Russian politics examines the evolution of political opposition in Russia from 1989 to 2005. The article specifies and employs a framework that focuses on the structure of the political elite and the political opportunity structure that it provides to oppositional forces. The framework is tested in brief case studies of three oppositional forces: communists, liberals, and democrats. Prospects for the future of political opposition in Russia are discussed.     

Relations with North Africa: a new priority in Portuguese bilateral foreign policy?

Portugal has remained quite distant from coastal North African states for many centuries. Having recently emerged as a prominent player across North Africa, Portugal’s current relationship with the Maghreb countries is unprecedented in its history. Lisbon has invested in building the Maghreb axis as a ‘new priority’ in the architecture of Portugal’s bilateral foreign policy. This policy already took off, and is now beyond the rhetorical plan, where it stood for many years. Portugal and its partner countries across the Mediterranean have reiterated their willingness to keep up with the positive momentum, especially from the past 10 years, deepening bilateral political dialogue and bolstering trade relations. This article puts Portuguese relations with North Africa into context and offers an up-to-date analysis on recent (and ongoing) developments in Luso?Maghreb relations.     

Private Farming in Russia: An Emerging Success?

The emergence of privately owned peasant farms in the early 1990s was one of the most important reforms in Russia's agrarian sector. Initially failing to become a significant food producer, during its second decade private farming emerged as a success in agrarian reform. This success is analyzed using two levels of analysis. At the macro-level, economic performance, government policy, and AKKOR's relationships with a range of actors are examined. The micro- or household level is examined using survey data from rural households, looking at private farmers' earned income, land holdings, and shifts in employment.     

Technology and Politics: Have the ICTs Turned into a Domain for Civil–Military Relations in Turkey?

The implications of technology have been widely acknowledged in international relations. Studies ranging from the causes of war and military effectiveness to terrorism and nuclear proliferation have explored how technology shapes international politics. However, the implications of technology in domestic politics have not been scrutinised much. This paper helps fill this vacuum through an analysis of Turkey’s civil–military relations. Although civilian control over the Turkish military has improved in the past decade, this process has not been smooth. With a focus on the recent court cases involving the military, the 2007 e-memorandum and the transfer of electronic military intelligence apparatus to the civilian authority, this paper demonstrates how technology has become an important domain for civil–military relations in Turkey.     

Suffrage Extensions and Voting Patterns in Latin America: Is Mobilization a Source of Decay?

This article examines whether changes in electoral participation contributed to electoral volatility in Latin America between 1945 and 2000. As a result of literacy voting requirements and authoritarian interludes that disenfranchised large portions of the population, new voters in Latin America probably had different political interests from the previous electorate and were not socialized to electoral politics. The article considers the hypothesis that the inclusion of new voters with different interests produces an immediate, short‐term change in aggregate voting patterns, and a lack of socialization of new voters generates lingering instability in electoral behavior. Accounting for confounding factors, the analysis of legislative elections in 12 countries indicates that the expansion of the electorate temporarily disrupted voting patterns in Latin America but did not lead to long‐run party system decay.     

What explains regional variation in election fraud? Evidence from Russia: a research note

The December 2011 legislative election was among the most fraudulent national elections in Russia since the communist period. The fraud, however, was not evenly spread across the country. Precinct-level election returns from the 83 regions of the Russian Federation suggest that the level of fraud ranged from minimal or small in some regions to extreme in some others, with moderate to high fraud levels in many regions in between. We argue that in an electoral authoritarian context like Russia, regional variation in fraud can be explained by differences in (a) the perceived need by regional authorities to signal loyalty to the center by “delivering” desired election results; (b) the capacity of regional authorities to organize fraud; and (c) the vulnerability of citizens to political pressure and manipulation. We test the effect of signaling, capacity, and vulnerability on electoral fraud in the 2011 legislative elections with data on the 83 regions of the Russian Federation. We find evidence for all three mechanisms, finding that the tenure of governors in office, United Russia's dominance in regional legislatures, and the ethnic composition of regions are most important for explaining regional variation in electoral fraud.     

Perestroyka 2.0: Toward Non-Revolutionary Regime Transformation in Russia?

A political scientist examines the Medvedev presidency, asking whether a significant liberalization occurred between 2008 and spring 2012, the advent of Putin's return to the Kremlin. Drawing on the media and the academic literature, the article explores the proposition that that liberalization sparked many of the processes associated in the political science literature with both revolutionary and more transitional modes of regime transformation, including some initial regime transition pact-making. This pact-making and the maturity that both regime and opposition have so far exhibited are analyzed in terms of prospects for a peaceful mode of regime transformation that produces a democratic outcome.     

Statism and asian political economy: Is there a new paradigm?

Abstract

Given that statism has been so intensively reviewed recently, it is reasonable to ask why there is a need to produce another review. The key lies in the nature, not the quantity, of the previously published reviews. A survey of the existing literature shows that most of the reviewers are loyalist critics whose goal is to build statism as a new paradigm of Asian political economy. Emphasizing statism's contribution in expanding the debate on Newly Industrializing Countries (NICs) beyond the market-centric analysis, they offer opinions on this theory that are positive—not surprisingly—and on the whole even generous. Misled by statism's anti-market rhetoric, some writers from a more critical tradition have also embraced statism as a new departure for studies of Asian capitalist development. Consequently, statism has escaped a rigorous scrutiny, which is long overdue.