A neural network applied to criminal psychological profiling: an Italian initiative

The author presents a brief discussion of criminal profiling followed by an introduction to the Italian Neural Network for Psychological Criminal Profiling (NNPCP) project. This project, based on a so-called neural network and data mining, is an innovative technique being developed with the intention of extending criminal profiling to single serious crimes through the use of a computerized database.     

Reliability, validity, and utility of criminal profiling typologies

Criminal profiling has received attention from the academic community and from the entertainment world since the FBI first published accounts of its profiling principles. It became popular through films such as Silence of the Lambs and the X-Files making headlines. However, beyond the victims' pin pictures that help create the sensationalism in these resources, there have been few, if any, reliable criminal profiling classification designs. This work examines deductive and inductive profiling models that classify crime scene activity including the first systematic review of the FBI's organized and disorganized profiling typology. The paper concludes with a discussion about how to turn profiling from an art too more a scientific process through the use of investigative process management research.     

Is it all about race? Intergroup threat and perceptions of racial profiling

Relatively few studies have assessed theoretically relevant predictors of individual’s perceptions of racial profiling by law enforcement officers. The current study addresses this limitation by drawing on theoretical frameworks highlighted in the growing body of literature examining disproportionate minority contact (DMC) with the criminal justice system. Specifically, we draw on the racial and symbolic threat perspectives with the objective of identifying theoretically relevant individual and community level predictors of perceptions of racial profiling by public and private police bodies in airports, malls, and on the roads. Results of our analysis of data on White and Black individuals nested within communities support the racial threat perspective in documenting the influence of racial heterogeneity and interracial labor market competition on perceptions of racial profiling. However, in contention to predictions derived from the symbolic threat perspective, the results fail to uncover a link between interracial socioeconomic inequality and perceptions of racial profiling by law enforcement officers. These results highlight the importance of moving beyond individual explanations of profiling and other forms of DMC and suggest community characteristics and perceptions of intergroup threat are particularly salient to understanding perceptions of race-based distinctions in formal social control.     

Cognitive processes in criminal profile construction: a preliminary study

This study undertook an empirically based examination of the cognitive processes associated with the accurate construction of a criminal psychological profile. This was accomplished by comparing the abilities of profilers and nonprofilers in two simulated profiling exercises that measured both profile accuracy and an individual's performance on various tests of memory and comprehension related to the case materials presented in each exercise. The results of these experiments suggest that an incremental relationship exists between comprehension of the case materials and accuracy of the profiles generated. In addition, the findings provide some tentative indications that the comprehension of case material in a narrative (i.e., written) format is an integral cognitive function to proficient profiling.     

Validation studies of the ParaDNA® Intelligence System with artificial evidence items

Short tandem repeat (STR) profiling is one of the mostly used systems for forensic applications. In certain circumstances, STR profiling is time-consuming and costly, which potentially leads to delays in criminal investigations. LGC (Laboratory of the Government Chemist, UK) Forensics has developed a robust STR profiling platform called the ParaDNA^® Intelligence Test System which can provide early tactical intelligence and aid investigators in making informed decisions on sample prioritization for detection. Here, we validated the ParaDNA intelligence test for its application in forensic cases using a range of mock evidence items following guidelines set by the Scientific Working Group on DNA Analysis Methods (SWGDAM). Specifically, we tested the sensitivity and accuracy of the ParaDNA intelligence test, as well as the success rates for detecting mock samples and for use in case scenarios. Our findings demonstrate that the ParaDNA intelligence test generates useful DNA profiles, especially for samples such as blood, saliva, and semen that contain ample DNA, indicating the benefits of including ParaDNA as a prior step in forensic STR profiling pipelines.     

Messenger RNA Profiling for Forensic Body Fluid Identification： Research and Applications

Identifying the origin of body fluids left at a crime scene can give a significant insight into crime scene reconstruction by supporting a link betw een sample donors and actual criminal acts. How ev-er, the conventional body fluid identification methods are prone to various limitations, such as time con-sumption, intensive labor, nonparallel manner, varying degrees of sensitivity and limited specificity. Re-cently, the analysis of cell-specific messenger RNA expression （mRNA profiling） has been proposed to supplant conventional methods for body fluid identification. Since 2011, the collaborative exercises have been organized by the European DNA Profiling Group （EDNAP ） in order to evaluate the robustness and reproducibility of mRNA profiling for body fluid identification. The major advantages of mRNA profil-ing, compared to the conventional methods, include higher sensitivity, greater specificity, the ability of detecting several body fluids in one multiplex reaction, and compatibilitywith current DNA extraction and analysis procedure. In the current review ,we provided an overview of the present know ledge and detection methodologies of mRNA profiling for forensic body fluid identification and discussed its possi-ble practical application to forensic casew ork.     

Technology in policing: Experiences,obstacles and police needs

Increasing efforts are made by police forces all over the world to optimize the use of technology in policing and remove any obstacles as new and existing technologies provide new opportunities for law enforcement, criminal investigation and prosecution. This contribution describes results of research on which technologies are currently used at police forces and other criminal investigation organizations in the Netherlands, their experiences with these technologies and their needs and preferences in this regard. For existing opportunities the prevalence and satisfaction of several technologies in policing, including wiretapping, fingerprints, DNA research, database coupling, data mining and profiling, camera surveillance and network analyses were investigated. For new opportunities the most promising technologies (i.e., promising according to the police forces) were mapped. Furthermore, an inventory was made of the legal, technological and organizational obstacles police forces encounter when using different technologies for purposes like law enforcement, criminal investigation and prosecution.     

Book Review

Investigative psychology: Offender profiling and the analysis of criminal action D. Canter and D. Youngs Chichester: Wiley, 2009. 470 pp. Price: U/K. ISBN: 978‐0‐470‐02397‐6     

Post-conviction DNA testing: the UK's first 'exoneration' case?

The routine incorporation of forensic DNA profiling into the criminal justice systems of the United Kingdom has been widely promoted as a device for improving the quality of investigative and prosecutorial processes. From its first uses in the 1980s, in cases of serious crime, to the now daily collection, analysis and comparison of genetic samples in the National DNA Database, DNA profiling has become a standard instrument of policing and a powerful evidential resource for prosecutors. However, the use of post-conviction DNA testing has, until recently, been uncommon in the United Kingdom. This paper explores the first case, in England, of the contribution of DNA profiling to a successful appeal against conviction by an imprisoned offender. Analysis of the details of this case is used to emphasise the ways in which novel forms of scientific evidence remain subject to traditional and heterogeneous tests of relevance and credibility.     

An empirical assessment of content in criminal psychological profiles

Although criminal psychological profiling has been in use by law enforcement agencies for almost three decades, there is a paucity of empirical research examining the technique. A fundamental issue that has received little attention is the empirical evaluation of information contained in profiles composed by professional profilers. In this study, a group of profilers, police officers, psychologists, college students, and self-declared psychics were given information from a solved murder investigation, after which the participants composed a written profile predicting the probable offender. Professional profilers tended to write more lengthy profiles that contained more information about the nonphysical attributes of the offender and more information about the crime scene or the offender's behavior before, during, and after the crime. These results are discussed in terms of their implication for our broader understanding of the technique of profiling and future directions for research into profiling.     

The utilization of forensic science and criminal profiling for capturing serial killers

Movies and nightly television shows appear to emphasize highly efficient regimens in forensic science and criminal investigative analysis (profiling) that result in capturing serial killers and other perpetrators of homicide. Although some of the shows are apocryphal and unrealistic, they reflect major advancements that have been made in the fields of forensic science and criminal psychology during the past two decades that have helped police capture serial killers. Some of the advancements are outlined in this paper. In a study of 200 serial killers, we examined the variables that led to police focusing their attention on specific suspects. We developed 12 categories that describe how serial killers come to the attention of the police. The results of the present study indicate that most serial killers are captured as a result of citizens and surviving victims contributing information that resulted in police investigations that led to an arrest. The role of forensic science appears to be important in convicting the perpetrator, but not necessarily in identifying the perpetrator.     

Toulmin's philosophy of argument and its relevance to offender profiling

This study sought to identify the extent to which claims about the probable characteristics of offenders in ‘offender profiles’ were based on substantive arguments. Because Toulmin's (1958) philosophy of argument has been demonstrated as a useful way of breaking down arguments into their constituent parts (Burleson, 1979) we examined the extent to which profiles contained grounds, warrants, backing and rebuttals to support or refute various claims about offenders. Twenty-one profiles, representing a range of ‘profiling styles’, were obtained from a variety of sources. All of these had been used in major criminal investigations either in the UK or internationally. Of the nearly 4,000 claims made, nearly 80% were unsubstantiated. That is, they contained no grounds, warrant, backing or rebuttal. Moreover, less than 31% of the claims were falsifiable. We argue that (a) this demonstrates the need for a careful, systematic evaluation of profiling advice (b) Toulmin's structure is one useful method for evaluating such material and for providing a possible framework for such advice.     

Criminal psychological profiling of serial arson crimes

The practice of criminal psychological profiling is frequently cited as being applicable to serial arson crimes. Despite this claim, there does not appear to be any empirical research that examines serial arson offence behaviors in the context of profiling. This study seeks to develop an empirical model of serial arsonist behaviors that can be systematically associated with probable offender characteristics. Analysis has produced a model of offence behaviors that identify four discrete behavior patterns, all of which share a constellation of common nondiscriminatory behaviors. The inherent behavioral themes of each of these patterns are explored with discussion of their broader implications for our understanding of serial arson and directions for future research.     

History, Race, and Prediction: Comments on Harcourt's Against Prediction

This article reviews Bernard Harcourt's Against Prediction: Profiling, Policing, and Punishing in an Actuarial Age (2007). It places the rise of actuarialism in criminal law in the United States in the context of trends in other areas of law, as well as in penology. It further suggests that this move toward actuarial thinking cannot in fact be separated from race; that prediction has always involved racial profiling, and that it is no accident that it does so .     

High‐Throughput STR Analysis for DNA Database Using Direct PCR,

Since the Korean criminal DNA database was launched in 2010, we have focused on establishing an automated DNA database profiling system that analyzes short tandem repeat loci in a high‐throughput and cost‐effective manner. We established a DNA database profiling system without DNA purification using a direct PCR buffer system. The quality of direct PCR procedures was compared with that of conventional PCR system under their respective optimized conditions. The results revealed not only perfect concordance but also an excellent PCR success rate, good electropherogram quality, and an optimal intra/inter‐loci peak height ratio. In particular, the proportion of DNA extraction required due to direct PCR failure could be minimized to <3%. In conclusion, the newly developed direct PCR system can be adopted for automated DNA database profiling systems to replace or supplement conventional PCR system in a time‐ and cost‐saving manner.     

Driving racial profiling research forward: Learning lessons from sentencing research

Discretion is an integral component of the criminal justice system and is exercised by both police and the judiciary. Based on the extant research, evidence of racial/ethnic disparities within the context of traffic stops and sentencing decisions has been documented. Due to its long history of inquiry, sentencing research has developed a more thorough understanding of disparity and its correlates. This article contends that racial profiling research could expedite its development by learning from the history of sentencing research. Specifically, the extant research on sentencing decisions has demonstrated the value and utility of theory and methods as pillars of knowledge development. Therefore, progress in racial profiling research is most likely accomplished by employing similar theoretical frameworks and appropriate quantitative and qualitative approaches.     

Validities and abilities in criminal profiling: a critique of the studies conducted by Richard Kocsis and his colleagues

In a recent issue of this journal, Kocsis reviewed the criminal profiling research that he and his colleagues have conducted during the past 4 years. Their research examines the correlates of profile accuracy with respect to the skills of the individual constructing the profile, and it has led Kocsis to draw conclusions that are important to the profiling field. In this article, the authors review the contributions of the Kocsis studies and critique their methodological and conceptual foundations. The authors raise a number of concerns and argue that data from the Kocsis studies fail to support many of the conclusions presented in his recent review. The authors present evidence in support of their assertions and provide recommendations that will allow future research in the area to generate data that are more meaningful and generalizable.     

Believing is seeing? Investigating the perceived accuracy of criminal psychological profiles

This study investigated whether perceptions of criminal psychological profiles are influenced by the identity of the profile's author. Police officers were given a profile they were told was written by either a professional profiler or by an unspecified author. When judged in relation to the actual perpetrator of the crime, police officers tended to perceive greater accuracy in a profile when it was labeled as authored by a professional profiler independent of the actual content of the profile. But officers' judgments of the usefulness of the profile were not affected by knowledge of who wrote the profile. Explanations for this result focus on the ambiguous nature of criminal profiles and how this ambiguity enhances the likelihood that beliefs about the validity of profiling can color perceptions of the content of the profile.     

Forensic case profiling aspects on multiple homicides from the Cologne-Bonn metropolitan area 1985-2000

The medicolegal and subsequent criminologic interpretation of forensic and pathological findings in cases of homicide makes up an important tool of case profiling. In a retrospective study of 26 cases of "multiple homicides" involving 31 perpetrators (30 males, 1 female, mean age 33.5 years) and 73 victims (33 males, 40 females, mean age 36 years, 68 fatalities, 5 survivors), autopsy reports and prosecution authorities' files were investigated with regard to individual characteristics of victims and offenders, circumstances as well as mode of commitment. The major aim of this study was to comprehensively elucidate and characterise relevant forensic and criminologic features, which may gain importance for forensic case profiling. Forty-six victims were found in the close social environment of the perpetrator and 45 homicides were committed either in the victim's, the perpetrator's or the shared domicile. The main motives included concealment of a crime (n=13), personal conflicts/domestic arguments (n=7) and greed (n=12). The relevant injuries with regard to the cause of death were attributable to sharp force (n=13), blunt force (n=7), gunshot wounds (n=24), ligature strangulation (n=3), smothering (n=5), fire/carbon monoxide (n=4) and combined impacts (n=11). In 15 cases, so called defence injuries were found. In 5 victims a post-mortem blood alcohol concentration >1.5 g/l was determined. In six perpetrators, a severe psychiatric impairment of juridical responsibility was ascertained (Section 20 German criminal code, n=2, psychosis; Section 21 German criminal code, n=4, acute alcohol intoxication). As far as conviction data were available, 27 crimes were juridically assessed as murder, 12 as manslaughter and one as bodily harm with fatal consequences.