The effects of fiscal decentralisation on the strength of political budget cycles in local expenditure

In this article we analyse the effects of political business cycles and fiscal decentralisation on the expenditure categories of Polish municipalities. We find convincing evidence demonstrating the impact of strong political business cycles in almost all expenditure categories, particularly for the categories of expenditure relevant to electoral success, such as infrastructure and social programmes. We find evidence that transfers to municipalities increase the strength of the electoral cycle.     

Elections in Poland 2001: electoral manipulation and party upheaval

The Polish parliamentary elections of 2001 took place in a context of fresh upheavals in the configuration of political parties. The architects of the new electoral law aimed to reduce the seats gained by the social democrats and increase their own. They succeeded in the first aim by a change of electoral formula, forcing the victorious social democratic electoral coalition to seek a third coalition partner. They did not achieve the second aim, as their own failures in government drastically reduced their electoral support and facilitated the breakthrough of populist formations. The result had implications for party development and the composition and workings of both parliament and government. While representation was enhanced by a parliament more accurately reflecting the voters’ choice, the impact appeared potentially harmful to Polish democracy as a whole.     

Determinants of voting results in Poland in the 2015 parliamentary elections. Analysis of spatial differences

This paper analyses spatial differences in the voting results in Poland in the 2015 parliamentary elections. Eleven clusters defining different support profiles are determined using the two most popular stopping rules. Parameters of the multinomial logit model are estimated and determinants of Polish communes' membership in specific clusters are identified. The results of the estimation indicate that economic, sociodemographic and location variables strongly determined the Poles' electoral preferences. However, historical and cultural factors turned out to be the most important determinants.     

Ethnicity as political cleavage: the political agenda of the Polish national minority in Lithuania

This article examines the role of ethnicity in the formation of political cleavage and is based on the analysis of the political agenda of the Polish national minority in Lithuania after the re-establishment of the independent state in 1990. It analyzes the political performance of the Electoral Action of Poles in Lithuania (EAPL), an ethnic-based “niche” political party that tends to keep a monopoly over the representation of interests of the Polish minority in Lithuania and collects a vast majority of the votes of citizens of Polish origin. The article considers how specific in comparison to the titular nation the interests of the Polish national minority are, and how different in comparison to the political agendas of other political parties the political agenda of the EAPL is.     

Dead ends and new beginnings: the quest for a procedural republic in Poland

The article, by juxtaposing the Polish and the American democratic consolidations, examines the deficiencies of the state transformation in Poland, focusing specifically on the conflict between a procedural and a substantive interpretation of democratic order. The analysis of the act that initiated the process of transition to democracy, the Roundtable Accord of 1989, is followed by a case study of an imperfect consensus and political compromise, the choices of electoral laws. After discussion of some other cases of ill-conceived institutional designs, the article concludes with an analysis of the socio-political background of the institutional transformation in Poland.     

Party system determinants of electoral reform in post-communist states

The article examines how the structure of party systems, that is, effective number of political actors, electoral volatility, and shares of dominant party votes and seats, affect the initiation and direction of electoral reform in post-communist democracies. Based on a dataset of electoral rule changes in post-communist democracies from 1992 to 2008, we analyze the frequency and direction of reforms over time. The findings reveal that the frequency of reforms declines with successive electoral cycles but not to the degree suggested by theories of institutional inertia. Countries with high levels of voter volatility are more likely to engage in reforms; however, the findings in this article demonstrate that politicians react to volatility by inconsistently choosing between permissive and restrictive responses.     

Presidents and cabinets: The political determinants of fiscal behavior in Latin America

What political factors drive fiscal behavior in Latin America’s persidential democracies? This work seeks to identify the political determinants of the level of public spending and the primary balance of ten democratic regimes in Latin America between 1980 and 1998. We consider, besides the influence of traditional variables such as the government’s ideological orientation and electoral cycle, the impact of other institutional and political aspects, such as the legislative strength of the president, ministerial stability, and the degree of centralization of budget institutions. Methodologically, the work is based on a pooled cross-section-time-series data analysis of 132 observations. Our main findings are that presidents supported by a strong party and leading a stable team of ministers—and ones more to the right on the political spectrum—had a negative impact on public spending and a positive effect on fiscal balance, and that the electoral cycle deteriorates the latter.     

Not much happened: The impact of gender quotas in Poland

Poland maintained its open-list PR system but introduced gender quotas in the 2011 parliamentary elections in order to increase the number of women deputies. Yet this change had only a limited impact on women's representation. The 2011 election confirms that ‘favorable’ electoral laws provide opportunities for women, but they cannot guarantee that women will be elected. In particular, the use of quotas alone is not sufficient to ensure high levels of women's representation. The most important factors in explaining the Polish result were 1) the absence of a ‘zipper’, a list ordering that alternates men and women candidates, thus ensuring high list-places for women 2) the parties' favoring of men in their list placement 3) the relative size of the political parties and 4) voters' support for list leaders and incumbent deputies. Despite a disappointing outcome, quotas may be seen as beneficial in increasing women's presence and the potential for further evolution of the electoral system.     

Revisiting Russian and Polish elite value orientations: Are the elites still committed to the original goals of post-communist transitions?

This article investigates the extent of continuity and discontinuity of the original political, economic, and foreign policy value orientations of Russian and Polish post-Communist elites. I conclude that during the post-Communist period the Russian elite shifted the priorities from pro-democratic to authoritarian positions, engaged in a debate over the most desirable foreign policy course, and ultimately chose a pragmatically independent direction, but remained loyal to original beliefs in the free market. In Poland, with its cyclical rotation of governments, original pro-democratic and pro-Western elite value orientations survive to this day, while the issue of preferred economic model is contested and highly sensitive to electoral cycles.     

Local electoral systems in Western Europe

This article describes and classifies the wide range of local electoral systems in Western Europe. A classification based on three fundamental dimensions of electoral systems shows that there are many different local electoral systems used in Western Europe. The question is addressed whether local electoral systems matter. Two potential ways to answer this question are explored, but actual research along these lines appears to be very scarce. This means that the debate on the advantages and disadvantages of local electoral systems will probably continue without much guidance from empirical research. It is argued that careful experiments at the local level and reporting about these experiments might give both politicians and political scientists some insight into the consequences of changing the local electoral system.     

Do Electoral Risks Moderate the Effect of Partisan and Electoral Cycles on Debt-Financed Local Spending?

Governments’ use of debt as a political instrument has been widely studied from the perspective of partisan and electoral cycles, mainly concerning central government. On the whole, previous studies have attempted to determine the effects of political ideology and the proximity of elections on the opportunistic use of public spending. The current study aims to broaden the scope of attention to the effect of partisan and electoral cycles on debt, by means of a broader consideration of the motives that lead politicians to take on a deficit and that are usually linked to the associated electoral risk. More particularly, we examine whether, during the electoral period, greater confidence in re-election can modify party behaviour concerning the use of public spending, and if so, whether the change is greater or smaller depending on the ruling party’s ideology. The results obtained show that local administrations need to incur debt, although politicians take on more liability than is appropriate to their demographic and economic characteristics, especially in an election year. It was also found that political stability favours a reduction in the public deficit, a pattern that is maintained in electoral periods. This effect was found to be independent of the partisan cycle.     

Disproportionality by Proportional Design: Seats and Votes in Russia'sRegional Legislative Elections,December 2003–March 2005

From a normative perspective, one of the major merits of electoral systems involving proportional representation (PR) is that they entail high levels of correspondence between voters' preferences, as expressed at the polls, and the levels of representation attained by political parties. From December 2003, federal law made it imperative to use mixed electoral systems in Russia's regional legislative elections. Thus PR, previously used in only a few regions, emerged as a principal mechanism of representation at the sub-national level of the Russian polity. The political incentives that drove this sweeping reform had little to do with normative considerations. When bringing mixed electoral systems to the regions, the federal centre apparently sought to open up the regional political arenas to national political influences, which could be achieved by introducing national political parties as important actors in regional elections. 1 ¹See Grigorii V. Golosov (2004) Political Parties in the Regions of Russia: Democracy Unclaimed (Boulder, Lynne Rienner), pp. 260–268. View all notes However, one might expect that even if without clear intent, high proportionality of electoral outcomes could have emerged as a side product of the electoral reform. It did not. Instead, the conversion of votes into seats in Russia's regional elections produced persistently disproportional outcomes that greatly favoured some political forces at the expense of others. The goal of this study is to examine this idiosyncratic tendency and to build an explanatory model incorporating both institutional and political determinants of disproportionality. By its methodological design, the study is based primarily on a statistical analysis of aggregate electoral results.     

The Polarization Trap

This article studies the association between ethnic conflicts and political attitudes. It employs a new data set on the casualties of the ethnic conflict in Turkey to identify the effects of the Kurdish insurgency on the electoral behavior of the Turkish voters. The results indicate that the conflict leads to the political polarization of the society along ethnic nationalist lines. Further investigation of the data also provides some empirical support for the constructivist argument that the salience of ethnic identities is subject to change in response to external stimuli, of which ethnic conflict constitutes a drastic example.     

Constructing courts after communism: Reevaluating the effect of electoral uncertainty

A prominent view in political science is that electoral uncertainty leads institutional designers to prefer independent and powerful courts. Yet few scholars have examined the design of constitutional courts systematically across Eastern Europe and those who have employed the results of elections held after constitutions were adopted to estimate the actors' perceptions of the balance of power prior to the court's design. This work reevaluates the effects of electoral uncertainty in post-communist Europe using more appropriate data and fuzzy-set qualitative comparative analysis to outline the different causal configurations linking electoral uncertainty to the initial judicial empowerment.     

Party Reforms and the Unbalancing of the Cleavage Structure in Russian Regional Elections, 2012–2015

This study analyses the influence of the party reforms of 2012 and the ‘counter-reforms’ of 2013–2014 on the Russian party system, and the structure of political and electoral cleavages in Russian regions. The emergence of new political parties in 2012–2013 led to a temporary increase in electoral competition, an augmentation of the political space, and a rise in the number of electoral cleavages, but these developments did not weaken the domination of United Russia. The trend towards an ever greater tightening up of entry requirements for contestation in the elections led to a lowering of the number of political and, consequently, electoral cleavages, in addition to a reconfiguration of the political space. The study shows that there was an unbalancing of the political cleavage structure in 2012–2015: the socioeconomic political cleavage, whose primary place is a key determinant of equilibrium, ceded the top position to the authoritarian–democratic cleavage in 2012–2013, and to the ‘Ukrainian’ (systemic) cleavage in 2014–2015.     

Europarties and party development in EU-candidate states: The case of Bulgaria

This article examines the direct impact of Europarties on domestic party development, taking the case of Bulgaria when it was a European Union (EU) candidate country. It combines arguments from party theory and the Europeanisation literature and focuses on the overlap of these two fields of study and it investigates the direct impact of Europarties on the choice of electoral strategies made by political parties in candidate states. The study begins by proposing an analytical model that explains the electoral behaviour of political parties based on traditional propositions in comparative party studies. Then it proposes to view international impact as an additional constraint on that behaviour. The main argument is that, in certain situations, Europarties have intervened in domestic party politics and have played a role in the decision of parties to choose certain electoral strategies. It is suggested therefore, that viewing party electoral behaviour purely from the perspective of domestic politics would not only be misleading, but would also lead us to expect behaviour that might not have been a possible alternative for the parties at a given point in time.     

The use of intergovernmental grants to municipalities for electoral purposes by subnational governments

Subnational governments devote a significant share of their financial resources to help municipalities provide local public services to their citizens. Compared to the large number of studies on national governments, little effort has been devoted to the influence of distributive politics on the use of intergovernmental grants by subnational governments. To fill this gap, this study uses a data set covering the period 2001–2011 to verify to what extent the Québec government used conditional grants to municipalities for electoral purposes. The results of this study show that the allocation of grants to municipalities is not exempt from electoral politics as municipalities located in districts held by governing parties or in high electoral competition districts receive more grants than other municipalities. However, the influence of electoral politics decreases substantially when the management of intergovernmental grants is under tight scrutiny by the opposition parties, mass media and the population. These findings suggest that distributive politics can be conceptualised as a political agency problem whose prevalence is seriously constrained by the improvement of the transparency of public policies management.     

Political corruption,economic performance,and electoral outcomes: a cross-national analysis

The current study examines how the incumbent government's economic performance plays a role in mediating the impact of political corruption on electoral outcomes in 115 developing countries with relatively higher levels of corruption than Western consolidated democracies. Borrowing theoretical insights from the information-processing theory of voting, this study finds that political corruption becomes a formative electoral factor when the regime fails to sustain a sufficient level of economic growth. Otherwise, political corruption is not a significant factor that shapes electoral outcomes, irrespective of the level of perceived corruption, because the economy occupies voters' minds as the most important issue, making it a more accessible issue than political corruption.     

What are the Local Political Costs of Centrally Determined Reforms of Local Government?

Taking advantage of a quasi-experimental setting and drawing upon analysis of electoral results and a survey of voters, this article explores the political costs of reform through the example of the 2009 local elections in Denmark. The article finds that the local parties of mayors were punished at the polls for implementing municipal amalgamations decided by the central government. However, the effect on the mayoral parties’ electoral result is more indirect than direct. Analyses of the electoral results demonstrates that the political parties holding the mayoralty in times of amalgamations tend to nominate very tenured mayors as candidates, thereby missing the positive first-term incumbency effect, which a new mayor could have acquired. And analyses of a survey of voters demonstrates higher levels of dissatisfaction with the municipal service in amalgamated municipalities, leading to a higher cost of ruling for mayoral parties which have led the implementation of an amalgamation.     

The Influence of Direct Democracy on Political Interest,Electoral Turnout and Other Forms of Citizens’ Participation in Swiss Municipalities

Based on the data of a survey conducted among Swiss municipalities, this article inquires into the relationship between different institutional settings of local democracy and the amount of political interest of citizens as well as electoral participation and new forms of citizen participation like participatory planning or local agenda 21. The study identifies six distinct settings of local democracy in Switzerland, ranging from pure direct democracy to representative democracy. The analysis shows that the institutional setting of local democracy has no impact on the political interest of the citizens. It also reveals that instruments of direct democracy do not significantly weaken representative democracy as far as electoral participation is concerned. New forms of citizen participation are predominantly used alongside with means of direct democracy.