Central Asia and regional security

This paper aims to analyze the politico-military cooperation among the Central Asian countries viewed as a key factor in ensuring the regional security. Today, the geopolitical tension in the surrounding regions, the worsening situation in Afghanistan, as well as intraregional socio-economic problems directly affect the security situation in Central Asia. In this regard, the question arises as to how well the Central Asian states are able to meet these challenges. The analysis of the situation in the region in the 1990s and at the beginning of the new century shows that attempts have been made to establish a regional security system based on military cooperation among Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. However, unregulated interstate relations in Central Asia, the lack of political will to cooperate with leaders of neighboring countries and the combination of external and internal threats have contributed to the creation of a regional security system based on the multilateral structures with the involvement of external actors.     

Who’s Socialising Whom? Regional Organisations and Contested Norms in Central Asia

The Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) and the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) represent competing sets of international norms in Central Asia. The contestation between these sets of norms has not led to a complete polarisation between members of the two organisations, however. Instead, the OSCE has used a range of discursive tactics to reduce political contestation, downplaying some contested issues and seeking shared discourses on security threats. This article explores these tactics and suggests that these discursive shifts may eventually threaten the normative identity of the OSCE and lead to the acceptance of a more hybrid set of security-related norms in the region.     

The International Politics of Water Security in Central Asia

The article examines the international politics of water security in Central Asia with a particular focus on the level of regionalism. Are the five Central Asian states evolving into a region capable of solving water management problems on a regional basis? To examine the extent to which water has shaped the structure of Central Asian relations, I use water-related events. The empirical findings suggest that international relations of the Central Asian states are characterised by at least two sets of triads rather than a singular region. The presence of regional fragmentation is likely to exacerbate existing disputes over water and possibly destabilise the region.     

Economic and Security Regionalism among Patrimonial Authoritarian Regimes: The Case of Central Asia

The ‘new regionalism’ has spread to Central Asia; yet there has been little success in implementing most regional initiatives there. Security regionalism has had greater success than economic regionalism, even though economic initiatives would bring great benefits to the economy and population. I propose a connection between patrimonialism and regionalism. Central Asia's patrimonial leaders are driven by survival and personal enrichment, and are beholden to informal vested interests. Since economic regionalism involves liberalisation that adversely affects these actors, the result is ‘virtual’ economic regionalism at best. In the case of security regionalism, some regional organisations progress because they bolster patrimonial regimes, with negative consequences for democracy.     

The politics of the pipeline: The Iran and Afghanistan conflict

A war between Iran and the Taliban's Afghanistan was averted in September 1998. The roots of the animosity between the two sides go much deeper than the killings of Iranian diplomats in Afghanistan and the reported massacre of Afghan Shi'ites by the Taliban. As the Iranians see it, an Afghanistan ruled by the Taliban is a threat to Iran's national security and economic and political interests not only in Afghanistan but, more importantly, in oil-rich Central Asia. The article argues that at the heart of the conflict between Iran and the Taliban is the question of whether Iran or Afghanistan should be the route for the export of oil and gas from landlocked Central Asia to world markets, as well as Pakistan's plan to use Afghanistan as a corridor to Central Asia. As explained in the article, for commercial and political reasons the Afghanistan route is preferred by both Islamabad and Washington. However, international oil companies prefer the Iran route as it is the shortest, safest and most economical.     

Trans-Regional Security Organisations and Statist Multilateralism in Eurasia

This paper argues that there is an emerging trans-regional security complex reaching from Russia through Central Asia to China. Shared security norms have resulted in statist multilateralism, that is, state-directed cooperation on shared interests while closely guarding distinct identities and specific political features. The paper outlines member states' key political values and shows how they ‘framed’ shared understandings about security. It then explains how security norms inform the institutional designs of the two main multilateral security organisations thereby directing the nature of cooperation, testing the argument in two key conflicts: in Kyrgyzstan and Afghanistan.     

The Failure of Presidentialism in Central Asia

Institutional design can impact the dynamics of power relations in Central Asian states. Majoritarianism and the rigidity of the fixed terms of presidential systems are amplified by the personalist regimes of Central Asia, often leading to instability. A parliamentary system may reduce the political repression of these regimes by decreasing the stakes in each particular election. It may also increase stability due to the higher flexibility of the system. The effectiveness of the parliamentary system, however, depends largely on the existence of strong cohesive parties.     

Trade,Development, and Nonproliferation: Multilevel Counterterrorism in Central Asia

This article was presented in its original form in October 2005 at the Conference on Central Asian Security in Tashkent, Uzbekistan. This article seeks to add to the discourse on counterterrorism by looking at the challenges posed by sub-state radicalism to development and regionalization. Specifically, adequate counterterror campaigns require addressing socioeconomic feeders of radicalism while simultaneously dealing with the threat of political violence itself. In terms of development, this means advocating increased trade volumes and export oriented growth while concurrently controlling for illicit trade (which often finances terrorist movements) and trade in strategic goods (which could serve to undermine the security of the state). The authors use the case study of Uzbekistan and Central Asian insecurity to illustrate the utility of customs modernization, border security, and export control legislation as integral components in wider counterterror campaigns. The study addresses circumstances specific to present day Central Asia but has wider implications in stymieing the relationship between “grey areas” and terrorist movements worldwide.     

Themes in official discourses on terrorism in Central Asia

This article explores the manner in which the governments of Central Asia, in particular Uzbekistan, have analysed and portrayed the actual and perceived threat from Islamist terrorism. It examines and critiques the core themes in this discourse, including the theoretical and legal definitions of the term terrorism, the delegitimisation and depoliticisation of the terrorist and the continuation of Soviet rhetoric on terrorism. It seeks to place this discourse in the wider political culture and objectives of the regimes and the broader security considerations of these newly independent states seeking to consolidate state- and nationhood.     

Keeping Central Asia stable

Contrary to optimistic assessments on the stabilising impact of the US troop deployment in Central Asia, the long‐term prospects for regional stability are far from certain. The American entry into Central Asia has complicated the geostrategic dynamics of the region and engaged the three great powers and regional players in intense rivalry for influence and leverage. If there was ever a ‘Great Game’ at play in the post‐Soviet era, it is now. The convergence of the great powers on Central Asia was justified in terms of anti‐terrorism. The toppling of the Taliban in Afghanistan may have secured its northern neighbours from an imminent threat, but the direct involvement of US forces in Central Asia is not likely to contribute to regional stability in the long run.     

The Shanghai Cooperation Organisation: ‘Tackling the Three Evils’. A Regional Response to Non-traditional Security Challenges or an Anti-Western Bloc?

This article examines how, despite the initial scepticism about its viability, the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) has become the primary security organisation in Central Asia. Two major factors are identified. Firstly, the focus of the SCO on tackling the so-called ‘three evils’ (terrorism, extremism, separatism) has won it favour with the prevailing leaderships of its member states. Secondly, the specific organisational framework adopted is appropriate for the region. The article concludes that the SCO is best characterised as a regional organisation concerned with non-traditional security and not as a hostile new ‘Warsaw Pact’ as suggested by some.     

Central Asia: Managing the delicate balance between the “discourse of danger,” the “Great Game,” and regional problem solving

This article concludes this special issue of Communist and Post-Communist Studies by summarizing the various contributions and noting their commonalties as well as dissimilarities. The primary themes are the various problems in need of solution in Central Asia and the surrounding “neighborhood” (e.g., Afghanistan), including identity-driven conflicts and various ways of handling them.The article reaches out from the academic researchers who have contributed the articles, to policymakers, especially in the U.S., who may be concerned with identifying and solving the problems of Central Asia and its neighborhood, noting the “unintended consequences” that may befall them for what they do or do not do in the region.     

The Convergence of Terrorism and Transnational Crime in Central Asia

This article examines the convergence among ethnic groups, narco-traffickers, insurgents, and terror organizations in Central Asia. It analyzes the lucrative business of drug trafficking and the diffusion of globalization, which have undoubtedly brought these once disparate groups together. It will explore how the increasing movement of illicit goods and people, proliferation of transportation technology, growing infrastructure, cooperative ethnicities, as well as a shared need for funding, have provided these groups with an opportunity to consolidate their efforts in ways that were not possible in the past.     

20年来美国中亚战略的基本路径

苏联解体20年来，美国的中亚战略灵活多样，已经摸索出一套相对稳定、成熟和确定的手段。基本路径和手段包括：密切政治关系、推进地区多极化均衡；加强经济援助和经济合作，推动建立利伯维尔场经济；加强军事安全合作，合作打击极端势力并威慑其他大国；利用软硬手段结合，择机推进民主体制和自由价值观等。从1995年开始，美国采取了大规模政治、经济和军事“攻势”。“9·11”事件后，美国通过在中亚维持军事存在，一度使中亚国际关系发生了有利于美国的变化。     

Russian and Caspian Hydrocarbons: Energy Supply Stakes for the European Union

The issue of EU gas supply security has become more and more important in the 2000s in the context of gas market liberalisation and the question of the reliability of Russia as a supplier. One answer to these problems is EU gas diversification, specifically the opening up of a fourth gas corridor to supply the EU with gas from Central Asia via the ‘Caucasus’ or ‘southern’ route. The feasibility of this strategy might now be called into question. This article reviews the new strategies that could emerge in the producing countries as well as those of international oil companies, and then examines what the consequences might be as far as the EU's diversification strategy is concerned. The article identifies some of the problems and limits of these strategies.     

Will there be revolution in Central Asia?

Will revolution, either of the democratic or the Islamic fundamentalist variety, spread throughout Central Asia? Such a question cannot be answered definitively. I will address this question by examining what is going on in Central Asia in light of different theories of revolution, including the ones focusing on relative deprivation, regime type, state breakdown, external factors, democratic revolution theory, and the role of the military. This study will show that several theoretical approaches suggest that the ingredients for revolution in Central Asia are either there now or will be in the not too distant future.     

Freedom,Hate, and Violence on the American Right

Most studies on Middle East security focus on traditional threats such as military aggression and terrorism. This draft report examines the scope and dimensions of a broadened regional security agenda. It focuses on three specific issues: the opium trade in Central and Southwest Asia; unregulated population movements from the Persian Gulf, Afghanistan and North Africa; and maritime piracy around the Horn of Africa and Arabian Peninsula. Although Washington is not directly affected by any of these "soft" or "grey area" challenges, they are relevant for the United States in at least five respects. First, they represent a subset of the transnational problems that both the Clinton and Bush administrations have emphasized as a growing threat to national and international stability (such as international organized crime, corruption and generalized non-state violence and chaos). Second, they have, in varying degrees, undermined and distorted institutional state capacity, trade and (legitimate) economic growth in a region that is of geostrategic importance to Washington. Third, all carry significant implications for the lives, welfare and safety of ordinary citizens, including Americans. Fourth, in certain instances they have interacted with other sources of political tension to act as an additional catalyst for inter-state hostility and rivalry. Finally, because these challenges cannot be readily deterred by established mechanisms of border security, they necessarily require innovative and novel countermeasures--something that the United States is well placed to facilitate, both by virtue of its resources and global leadership role.     

上海合作组织扩员后的地区定位与合作格局

作为新地区主义的一种实践形式,上海合作组织成立后不断发展。上海合作组织坚持以“不干涉内政”原则为核心的主权规范,遵循“国家主义”发展路径。扩员之前,在应对安集延事件、吉尔吉斯斯坦政局动荡等地区安全与政治挑战的过程中,上海合作组织确立了以中亚为地缘安全中心的地区定位。在开展各领域合作的进程中,上海合作组织秉持协商一致的原则,其内部形成了“大国引领、中小国家平等参与”的合作格局。扩员之后,上海合作组织继续遵循“国家主义”发展路径,但其地区定位与内部合作格局出现了新变化。印度和巴基斯坦的加入,使中亚的地缘安全中心地位相对下降,以中亚为重心、南亚为重要延伸成为上海合作组织新的地区定位。印度和巴基斯坦两国的加入,还增加了上海合作组织内部合作格局的复杂性,使“大国引领”的合作格局面临深刻转型,“中小国家平等参与”的合作格局也在发生演变。目前,上海合作组织处于发展转型的十字路口,其发展面临的不确定性需要给予更多关注。     

‘Shaking Hands with Money’: The Phenomenon of Gap in Modern Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan

This study examines gap—traditional reciprocal associations common in Central Asia. Gap is an unofficial, regular get-together of people of similar age bound by socially acknowledged ties. The study argues that gap represents a communal type of civil society featuring many differences from analogous groups in Western liberal societies. Gap may effect social consciousness and facilitate mobilisation. The study also analyses modern forms of gap such as joint savings funds, female-only get-togethers, and internet-based gap.