印巴克什米尔博弈

克什米尔冲突一直是印度和巴基斯坦两国关系中的核心问题,半个多世纪以来克什米尔见证了印巴两国关系的曲折和反复。文章从博弈论的角度分析了印巴在克什米尔问题上博弈的四种情况及其相对应的利害关系;并在此基础上阐述了两国必须认清的?客观存在的但又都不愿面对的基本事实。文章最后指出,无论用何种方法和平解决克什米尔问题,首要的条件是两国之间的政治互信。     

调整中的中印巴三角关系

冷战时代的中印巴三角关系以敌视和对抗为结构特征、以权力竞争和传统安全关切为主要内容。冷战结束后,大国开始调整南亚政策,印巴在国际舞台上的地位和作用发生变化,中印和印巴间的冷漠与对峙被打破,调整中印巴三角关系的历史机遇已经出现。但是构建良性互动和结构相对平衡的中印巴三角关系的前景并不乐观。     

印巴全面对话任重道远

印巴全面对话在反复和曲折中延续,并且取得了一些成果。在克什米尔问题上两国积极的互动,又给人们一线新的希望。但是,前进的道路不会平坦,速度不会很快;印巴关系可能继续缓和,两国之间的重大争议,特别是克什米尔争端则较难在短时间内彻底解决。     

论甘地与印巴分治

甘地虽然为印度的民族独立作出了独特的贡献 ,但他和穆斯林联盟及国大党大多数主要领导人一样 ,对于印度的分裂应该负有一定程度的责任 ,因为他对于加速印度分裂的因素———真纳由民族主义者转变为种族主义者、穆盟势力的增强———的成长起了很大作用 ,在关键时刻没有利用自己在印度国民中的威望和影响尽可能避免分裂局面的出现     

India,Pakistan and the Legacy of September 11th

While the physical effects of the attacks on the United States and the corresponding 'war on terrorism' seem to be the most direct consequences of September 11th, the most noteworthy consequence is, in fact, the changing world order and the newly emerging concepts of security. India and Pakistan, based on their geography, politics, and domestic experiences, are two key participants to this war on terrorism. By reviewing the regional relationships, economic impacts, and the Kashmir situation since September 11th, it will be possible to see that the success of this new security order in South Asia is contingent on India and Pakistan's cooperation. The leaders of these two countries will have to balance their domestic challenges and the demands of the international community.     

India’s Pakistan problem: operation Parakram revisited

ABSTRACT

Why did India launch and later withdraw from the exercise in coercive diplomacy – Operation Parakram – against Pakistan in response to the attack on India’s Parliament by terrorists based in that country? This paper marshals factors operating at the systemic, state and individual/small-group levels of analysis to show that, despite the paucity of evidence on decisionmaking of the kind required for an effective foreign policy analysis (FPA) approach, a reasonably clear picture can be developed. It combines deductive logic relating to state behavior in a nuclearized environment with the limited empirical evidence available to show that India never intended to go to war and that the operation was essentially a bluff that, having eventually reached a dead end, was called off.     

印巴关系由对抗走向缓和

本文概述了2 0 0 4年以来印巴关系走向缓和的主要情况,并分协了印巴关系的发展前景,作者认为,印巴关系真正缓和还有很长的路要走。     

India and Pakistan: Interpreting the Divergence of Two Political Trajectories

While suggestions were made in the 1990s that Pakistani and Indian political trajectories were converging as Pakistan took steps towards democratisation and India showed increasing signs of authoritarian centralisation, the following analysis offers a more historically sensitive view that suggests the opposite is true. In over fifty years of independence, institutional and societal structures have worked to create the political systems that we see on the Indian subcontinent today, and have helped define the potentially explosive Indo-Pakistan relationship so threatening in today's world. By analysing the ways in which different historical legacies act upon the current political cultures in both India and Pakistan, we engage in a fuller understanding of the contributing factors to the status quo in each. Further, historical analysis may shed some light on the expected trajectories of these two countries as they attempt to reinvent themselves at the beginning of the twenty-first century.     

国际反恐怖主义战略：美国、巴基斯坦与印度

“9.11”恐怖主义袭击事件后 ,随着美国组织盟国准备对阿富汗实施军事打击 ,巴基斯坦的战略地位重新回升 ,美巴之间的密切合作成为美国反恐怖主义行动顺利进行的重要条件 ;印度的合作愿望则因印巴两国的微妙关系而受到美国冷落。印巴在阿富汗政治重建问题上利益迥异 ,同时克什米尔暴力事件也突出了印度自身的反恐怖主义问题 ,这些复杂因素使得美国不得不在南亚维系平衡、险走钢丝 ,为其全局计划增添了新的变数。     

英国的“分而治之”政策与印巴分治

印巴分治不仅影响了次大陆的经济文化发展,也给印巴两国人民带来灾难,至今两国之间及其国内的宗教种族冲突仍然没有摆脱分治的阴影.本文主要探讨英国的"分而治之"政策与印巴分治的关系,以及造成分治的其他原因.     

和平、发展与祖国统一相互关系辨析

正确把握和平、发展与祖国统一三者之间的辨证关系是当前我国对外大战略中必须高度重视的问题之一。谋和平 ,求发展是当代世界各国人民的普遍愿望。只有顺应这一历史潮流 ,通过与世界各国人民一道 ,共同努力维护世界和平与稳定 ,才能谈得上中国的和平崛起与发展。保持世界和平与稳定是中国发展与实现祖国统一的基本前提 ,和平促进发展 ,发展促进祖国统一 ,没有和平与发展就谈不上实现祖国统一和中华民族的伟大复兴     

Explaining Civil-Military Relations in Complex Political Environments: India and Pakistan in Comparative Perspective

This article argues that military intervention into politics can only be understood by studying both the nature of threats and of domestic political arrangements. I offer a theory of the military in politics built around the interaction between threat configuration, political institutionalization, and civilian government legitimacy. The argument is tested with paired-comparison case studies of Indian and Pakistani civil-military relations since independence. Despite their similarities at the time of partition, these two militaries took completely different political trajectories. The cases reveal how structures of domestic politics interact with military threat perceptions to explain civilians' ability to maintain varying levels of control over the military.     

印巴在克什米尔问题上的困境——博弈论视角的解读

博弈论作为国际关系理论中的一种不可或缺的方法论,对分析印巴两国在克什米尔问题上的困境有着重要的启示意义。在克什米尔问题上,印巴关系经常出现类似博弈论中的“囚徒困境”、“死结困境”等模式。印巴双方为追求各自收益的最大化,更多地是采取了的“不合作策略”,而不是“合作的策略”,这样使得克什米尔问题上长期得不到妥善解决。     

中印巴三角关系与中国的南亚政策

中印巴三角关系是南亚问题的重要因素。近年来,中印巴三角关系出现积极互动的良好局面,这有利于中国与南亚开展合作与交流,维护西南周边环境的和平与稳定。目前,中印巴三角关系已有了确定的新形态,但仍难免带有旧模式的痕迹。中印巴三角关系受着多种因素的制约和影响,但当前有利的因素占主导地位。中国的南亚政策重点之一,是把握和处理好中印巴三角关系,积极推动三角互动,在维护好中巴传统关系基础上,积极发展对印关系,并推动印巴和解,促进地区局势的和平与稳定。同时,要注意应对各种不利于三角关系良性发展的潜在挑战。     

Anchoring the Peace: Civil Society Actors in Peace Accords and Durable Peace

Is peace more likely to prevail when the peace accord includes civil society actors such as religious groups, women's organizations, and human rights groups? This is the first statistical study that explores this issue. The article develops key claims in previous research regarding the role of civil society actors and durable peace, and proposes a set of hypotheses that focus on legitimacy in this process. The hypotheses are examined by employing unique data on the inclusion of civil society actors in all peace agreements in the post–Cold War period. The statistical analysis shows that inclusion of civil society actors in the peace settlement increases the durability of peace. The results further demonstrate that peace accords with involvement from civil society actors and political parties in combination are more likely to see peace prevail. The findings also suggest that inclusion of civil society has a particularly profound effect on the prospects for overall peace in nondemocratic societies.     

朝鲜半岛和平协定与和平机制

2007年以来东北亚局势的重大变化,使签定取代1953年朝鲜半岛《停战协定》的《和平协定》时机日渐成熟。签定新协定的主体应是朝、韩、美、中四方。达成新协定的主要障碍在于实现持久和平的途径,尤其是美国的立场与政策。只有从"停战机制"转向签订《和平协定》,建立和平机制,东北亚地区的和平与稳定才能得到保障。     

美国调整对印、巴军售政策的影响

3月25日,布什政府正式宣布将向巴基斯坦出售24架F-16战机,同时表示将允许美国公司与印度政府进行洽谈,以商讨包括F-16、F-18在内的126架先进战机售买和民用核技术转让等事宜。①这意味着美国开始调整自上世纪90年代以来对印、巴全面武器禁运的军售政策。布什政府缘何做此调整,其影响何在,确实耐人寻味。布什政府的这一举动有三方面的考虑。其一,是出于美国国内政治的考虑。在美国两党政治中,以洛克希德·马丁公司和诺斯罗普·格鲁曼公司为代表的大型军工企业一直扮演着极其重要的角色,对美国外交和安全政策具有重大影响力。这些企业大多支…     

试析布什政府对印巴危机的处理

“ 9·11”事件后 ,在国际反恐的新形势下 ,由于三件突发性事件的发生 ,印度与巴基斯坦的关系不断恶化 ,有爆发核战争的危险。美国积极主动地参与处理印巴危机 :实施和平调解 ,进行外交斡旋 ,促使印巴双方做相应让步 ,以缓和危机 ,避免战争的爆发。美国调解印巴危机的真正目的是为了反恐和维护其长远战略利益。     

印度与俄罗斯的战略伙伴关系

印俄战略伙伴关系是以政治、军事、科技和经贸等实质性战略合作领域为支柱的长期战略合作伙伴关系.伙伴关系的建立为提高印俄两国的战略地位、扩大战略活动空间、增加与其他大国打交道的身价奠定了坚实的基础.