中亚博弈:2005年俄稍占上风

俄美争夺中亚,是中亚国家独立后展现在国际上的一道风景线,数年间此起彼伏,争斗不止,总的趋势是俄退美进,但2005年则是俄稍占上风.     

中亚三女杰

哈萨克斯坦总统纳扎尔巴耶夫的大女儿达里加·纳扎尔巴耶娃、乌兹别克斯坦总统卡里莫夫的大女儿古丽娜拉·卡里莫娃、吉尔吉斯斯坦总统阿卡耶夫的妻子迈拉姆·阿卡耶娃等都是当前活跃于各国权力中心的风云女性.她们凭借自身特殊的身份、地位和性别优势在国家政治舞台上施展自己的才华和抱负.从2005-2007年,随着中亚各国陆续进入总统换届的多事之秋,上述三位女性有可能脱颖而出,成为各自国家总统的接班人.     

Mobile entrepreneurs in post-Soviet Central Asia

In this paper I present an analysis of a mobile entrepreneur and his transnational economic activities in post-Soviet space. I argue that the space of informal economic activities of mobile entrepreneurs are structured by trust-networks in the sense Tilly (2005) uses it. In this context the concept of tirikchilik (an Uzbek term for ‘muddling through’ or survival) which defines the space of informal economic activities is important to decipher. Tirikchilik unifies various economic activities which vary from trade, service delivery, middleman services, administration and any kind of activity that generates some cash.     

The Failure of Presidentialism in Central Asia

Institutional design can impact the dynamics of power relations in Central Asian states. Majoritarianism and the rigidity of the fixed terms of presidential systems are amplified by the personalist regimes of Central Asia, often leading to instability. A parliamentary system may reduce the political repression of these regimes by decreasing the stakes in each particular election. It may also increase stability due to the higher flexibility of the system. The effectiveness of the parliamentary system, however, depends largely on the existence of strong cohesive parties.     

Strategies of legitimation in Central Asia: regime durability in Turkmenistan

Located in current debates on one party dictatorships and regime durability, this article explores continuity and disruptions within the Turkmen political elite in their transition from presidents Saparmurat Niyazov (1991–2006) to Gurbanguly Berdymuhamedov (2007-). We are particularly interested in how the change from an idiosyncratic system, based mainly on president Niyazov's personality cult and visible repression of potential opponents, evolved into a more refined system under his successor, Berdymuhamedov. We will thus look at regime efforts to re-brand Turkmenistan without substantially changing the domestic political structures and dynamics. These include the manufacture of ‘opposition parties’ and holding of formal elections every five years while retaining absolute control over the most important political aspects of the country. We suggest the existence of a two-fold strategy to maintain the status quo based on authoritarian tendencies and learning. Whilst the shift from the first to the second president has brought significant changes, it also demonstrates essential continuities that helped the formation of an official domestic and international narrative proclaiming commitment to a number of international standards and national values; and strict control of most, if not all, aspects of national political life.     

Public Sector Reform in Central Asia and the Caucasus

Many developing countries are constantly seeking to reform their public services as part of a wider agenda which supports moves to a market economy and better governance arrangements. Some have embraced public management reforms as the template for their activities with limited success. This paper considers existing research on the impact of public sector reform in developing countries and offers an alternative approach, through case studies of Azerbaijan, Georgia and Kazakhstan, based on two keys elements: an agenda which attempts to shift developing countries to an outcomes based accountability approach operationalized through a “quality of life” framework; and, peer‐to‐peer learning.     

欧亚地区:俄美争夺愈演愈烈

去年上半年,由美国主导的北约和美国盟友欧盟完成历史上最大规模的扩大,分别吸纳了中东欧7国和10国,此举从根本上改变了欧洲政治安全格局,极大地挤压了俄罗斯的战略空间。与此同时,美继续向俄的"后院"独联体渗透,与俄在乌克兰和白俄罗斯进行公开对决;继续向中亚地区渗透,对吉尔吉斯斯坦今年新一届议会,总统选举施     

中亚安全与安全合作

苏联解体后,中亚地区的安全问题一直是国际关注的焦点问题. 中亚地区的军事安全问题 简言之,中亚地区的安全问题可以分为传统安全问题和非传统安全问题.所谓传统安全是指以军事安全为核心的安全.从这个定义出发,中亚地区的传统安全问题依然占有十分重要的位置.中亚各国为捍卫和维护自身的国家安全利益,制定了一系列战略方针、政策和策略.独立后,中亚五国纷纷组建了自己的本国军队.但由于苏联解体过程过快,中亚五国独立进程是在很短的时间内完成的,这就决定了中亚五国在组建本国军队方面需要一个过程.     

Nationalism in the USSR: a historical and comparative perspective

The late 1980s and early 1990s were characterized by the sudden rise of nationalist movements in almost all Soviet ethnic regions. It is argued that the rise of political nationalism since the late 1980s can be explained by the development of cultural nationalism in the previous decades, as an unintended outcome of Communist nationalities policy. All ethnic regions are examined throughout the entire history of the USSR (49 regions, 1917–1991), using the structural equation modeling (SEM) approach. This paper aims to make at least three contributions to the field. First, it is a methodological contribution for studying nationalism: a “quantification of history” approach. Having constructed variables from historical data, I use conventional statistical methods such as SEM. Second, this paper contributes to the theoretical debate about the role of cultural autonomy in multiethnic states. Finally, the paper statistically proves that the break between early Soviet and Stalinist nationalities policy explains the entire Soviet nationalities policy.