Win,lose, or withdraw: A categorical analysis of career patterns in the House of Representatives, 1948–1978

The literature on incumbency advantage has focused on margin as an indicator for electoral security. But while electoral margin is a goodex ante measure, it is a poorex post measure of security. Further, existing work has not integrated the choice of retirement with changes in the level of security. To improve the specification and definition of “marginality”, a multinomial LOGIT model is proposed where the dependent variable is categorical. Account is therefore taken of all the ways a Representative's term in office can end, including reelection, defeat, retirement, or pursuit of other office. The sample includes all U.S. Representatives elected for the first time between 1948 and 1978. The results indicate that (1) margin in the previous election is a significantex ante proxy for the probability of electoral defeat, and (2) while the electoral safety of all incumbents in the House has been increased, the increases are greater for members elected for the first time in the period since 1965.     

CHANGING PRACTICES AND CONCEPTIONS OF THE EXECUTIVE FUNCTION IN URBAN GOVERNMENT: THE GREATER BRISBANE EXPERIENCE

Abstract: Since the commencement of the Greater Brisbane scheme in 1925, a number of different ways of organising the executive function have been provided for in the legislation. These have included a mayor elected at large as chief executive officer; an appointed city manager model, which was never activated; a quasi-cabinet model, with the mayor being elected by the council rather than at large; a "weak" collective executive committee, akin to the early 20th century "board of control" arrangements in Canada, the mayor being elected at large and standing committees of council possessing substantial policy formulation powers; a stronger collective executive in theory, alongside which something akin to the American "strong mayor with chief administrative officer" model operated in practice; a strong collective executive, with the mayor once again elected indirectly, and weak standing committees of aldermen retained; a return to something like the original mayor-as-CEO arrangement; and finally, a strengthened version of the initial "mayor-as-CEO with chief administrative officer" model. These changes are traced chronologically and a general assessment is offered in conclusion.     

Selecting party leaders in the Republic of Ireland

Abstract. Traditionally Irish party leaders, elected by their own parliamentary parties, endured a security of tenure only likely to be broken by personal electoral defeat. Now they live under a much more demanding regime. Leaders are challenged frequently and at least one has been deposed. Whereas once successions were managed now contests are normal, and they attract considerable publicity. These changes are bound up with the shift toward greater competition in Irish electoral politics, and a greater uncertainty about the nature of the parties themselves.     

The Third Force? Independent Regulatory Agencies and Elected Politicians in Europe

Governments and legislatures in Europe have created or greatly strengthened independent regulatory agencies (IRAs). Yet they also retain many formal controls over those agencies. The article analyzes whether elected politicians have used their powers to create IRAs in their own image and kept IRAs under tight control or whether they have allowed IRAs to become a distinct set of actors, hence a "third force" in regulation. Principal–agent (PA) theories, largely based on U.S. experience, emphasize the importance of certain formal controls for elected politicians to limit "agency losses." However, an analysis of four European nations between 1990 and 2001 shows that elected politicians did not use their powers to appoint party politicians, force the early departures of IRA members, reverse IRA decisions, or reduce IRA budgets and powers. Using PA theory, two interpretations of this apparent puzzle are offered, each with differing implications for agency autonomy. One is that elected politicians used alternative methods of control, hence they suffered low "agency losses" and IRAs in practice had little autonomy. The other is that elected politicians found that the benefits of IRA autonomy in practice and the costs of applying their formal control outweighed agency losses, and hence accepted agency autonomy.     

Reversing delegation? Politicization,de-delegation,and non-majoritarian institutions

Elected governments and states have delegated extensive powers to non-majoritarian institutions (NMIs) such as independent central banks and regulatory agencies, courts, and international trade and investment organizations, which have become central actors in governance. But, far from having resolved the balance between political control and governing competence or removed certain issues from political debate, NMIs have faced challenges to their legitimacy by elected officials and sometimes attempts to reverse delegation through “de-delegation”. Our special issue studies the politicization of NMIs, and then whether, why and how it leads to de-delegation through reducing the formal powers of NMIs or increasing controls over them. In this article, we examine how to analyze de-delegation, how politicization of NMIs has developed, and how it has affected de-delegation. We underline not only institutional rules that constrain elected officials but also the actions of NMIs themselves and their relationships with other NMIs as part of multi-level governance systems. We find that politicization has varied, but even when strong, elected officials have not introduced widespread and long-lasting de-delegation; on the contrary, they have frequently widened the powers of NMIs. Insofar as elected politicians have sought to curb NMIs, they have often preferred to use existing controls and non-compliance. Finally, we consider the wider implications of the combination of politicization and lack of de-delegation for broader issues of governance such as the division of powers between the elected and unelected and democratic accountability.     

AGENDA SETTING, PUBLIC POLICY, AND MINORITY GROUP INFLUENCE: AN INTRODUCTION1

The question of where policy issues originate and gain attention is an important one, particularly when issues of concern of minority communities are at stake. Yet the literature on the impact of minority groups in the agenda setting process is virtually nonexistent. This introductory article sets the context for the symposium on "Agenda Setting, Public Policy, and Minority Group Influence" by raising several theoretical and contextual questions about the utility of the extant agenda setting literature as a paradigm for understanding minority group influence on the agenda setting process.     

Architecture of a broken dream: The CIA and Guatemala, 1952–54

In 1954, the United States launched a coup against Guatemalan President Jacobo Arbenz. In 2003, the Central Intelligence Agency and the Department of State declassified new documents pertaining to the fall of the Arbenz regime. In this paper I argue that although the new information does not substantially alter the overall debate about the causes and consequences of the action, it offers a portrait of the operation which is richer and more complex than what has been seen before. The documents reveal details of the operation which have been hidden for half a century. They illustrate how the mission faltered under the weight of security breaches and miscommunications. They also offer a fascinating glimpse at a shadowy figure in the plot to topple the Arbenz regime who has until now largely evaded the public record. In the end the documents affirm what many scholars had previously concluded, that at the end of the day it was the actions of the Guatemalan Army that made the difference between victory and defeat in the crusade to oust a democratically elected head of state.     

Attention to Detail: The Conservative Policy Agenda

Since 2001 (if not since 1997) the Conservative party has struggled to develop a coherent set of policies with which to provide a credible alternative to the Blair government. A second successive crushing election defeat fuelled the ongoing debates in the Conservative party, between those who were convinced of the need to steer towards the centre ground, thereby reviving the Conservative's 'one nation' tradition, and those who wanted to place clear blue water between themselves and New Labour, and thus adhere to Thatcherite radicalism. The Conservatives have therefore appeared to struggle in developing clear, alternative policies on such issues as 'tax-and-spend' and public service reform and delivery. They have, however, inched hesitatingly towards a more socially liberal stance on various issues. A major problem for the Conservatives has been that the Blair governments have actually continued with, or consolidated, many policies inherited from the Conservatives in 1997, thereby making it even more difficult for the Conservatives to articulate their own distinct policy agenda. This is likely to contribute towards a third heavy defeat for the Conservative party in the next general election.     

Does the procedural act of electing leaders enhance cooperation in divided societies? Experimental evidence from Lebanon

Studies suggest that the procedural act of participating in an election in homogenous communities enhances social cooperation and compliance with policies proposed by the elected leader by making the leader more legitimate. In this study, we implement a lab-in-the-field experiment among Shia and Sunni Muslims in Lebanon to test whether participating in the procedural act of electing a leader increases cross-group cooperation also in ethnically heterogeneous communities. We find that participation in leader election fails to increase inter-group cooperation in a heterogeneous setting. In contrast, an appeal to a common ingroup identity successfully increases cooperation. When appeal to a supraordinate identity is combined with leader elections, cooperation increases only when out-group leaders are elected and among voters who value democratic procedure. Our findings suggest that in ethnically divided societies elections can lead to cooperation only if the dominant social norms are consistent with democracy and supraordinate group identity is salient.     

The Communist Defeat in the 1948 Finnish Election: Notes on the Impact of Organization

The main purpose of this article is to find out those factors which caused the 1948 election defeat of the Communists in Finland. The central explanatory factors will be found in political and other organizations. Socio-economic factors did not have any significant impact. The author, however, emphasizes the fact that the rapid increase of industrial population in certain regions in the postwar years weakened social control and consequently made easier the operation of the "organization of party agents" which was created by the Social Democrats. This "organization" had a crucial impact on the election defeat of the Communists. The rumours of revolution also had their own significance, for the rumours could be utilized skillfully in the election campaign against Communists.     

POLITICIANS AND THE DISTRIBUTION OF PUBLIC POLICIES

Policy scientists can make important contributions to the study of policy distribution, a question that is likely to be among the most crucial national issues to be discussed throughout this decade. One aspect of this question that has been neglected is the theoretical assumption associated with public choice theory that politicians, once elected, will reward their supporters through the distribution of policy benefits. However, empirical research indicates that policy benefits seldom are distributed in this way. Instead, politicians follow the principle of universalism. In league with bureaucracies and policy communities, politicians define need and then ask bureaucracies to allocate benefits. This makes politicians roles as distributors of policy very different than simplistic models suggest.     

Do populist values or civic values drive support for referendums in Europe?

Representative democracy gives voters the right to influence who governs but its influence on policy making is only indirect. Free and fair referendums give voters the right to decide a policy directly. Elected representatives usually oppose referendums as redundant at best and as undermining their authority at worst. Democratic theorists tend to take electing representatives as normal and as normatively superior. The nominal association of popular decision making and populism has strengthened this negative view. Public opinion surveys show substantial support for holding referendums on important issues. Two major theories offer contrasting explanations for popular support for referendums; they reflect populist values or a commitment to the civic value of participation. This innovative paper tests an integrated model of both theories by the empirical analysis of a 17-country European survey. There is substantial support for all three civic hypotheses: referendum endorsement is positively influenced by attitudes towards participation, democratic ideals and whether elected representatives are perceived as responsive. By contrast, there is no support for populist hypotheses that the socioeconomically weak and excluded favour referendums and minimal support for the effect of extreme ideologies. The conclusion shows that most criticisms of referendums also apply to policy making by elected representatives. While referendums have limits on their use, there is a democratic argument for holding such ballots on major issues to see whether or not a majority of voters endorse the choice of their nominal representatives.     

Local Economic Development in China and the United States: Strategies and Issues

Globalization stimulates local governments in China and the United States to step up their economic development efforts. What strategies are successful and why? Does industry cluster development lead to higher per capita income? What government infrastructure and incentives stimulate and nurture businesses? This article examines local economic development in China and the United States, comparing strategies and outlining challenging issues. Kuotsai Tom Liou of the University of Central Florida finds that local governments must play the leading role in sustainable development, as a partnership approach promotes collaboration among communities, industries, and other government entities. Policy implications and theoretical issues aimed to promote further comparative studies are presented .     

Candidate ideology and electoral success in congressional elections

In examining the factors that contribute to electoral success in congressional elections, legislative scholars often consider the actions of elected representatives; however, other research suggests that one must consider what challengers are (or are not) doing as well. For instance, inexperience and poor funding can significantly inhibit challenger success. We expand this list of potential shortcomings by arguing that ideological congruence with a constituency may be another factor in explaining challenger defeat. Using ideology measures derived from campaign contributions, we find that unsuccessful challengers in the U.S. House are generally more extreme than those who win, but ideological extremity is not a disadvantage to those seeking to represent an extreme constituency. More importantly, our existing political institutions may actually serve to mitigate the already high levels of partisan polarization in Congress.     

Auditors‐General: Cuckoos in the Managerialist Nest?

The role of Auditors‐General has expanded in recent decades, particularly with the development of performance auditing. Performance auditing originated in the managerialist concern for monitoring results, but in some respects Auditors‐General have found themselves at odds with managerialism, particularly where outsourcing and privatisation have reduced the level of public accountability. Performance auditing has also increased the potential for Auditors‐General to clash openly with elected governments, though for the most part they confine their scrutiny to the activities of public servants. Auditors‐General have more authority to confront governments over matters of propriety than over efficiency and effectiveness issues.     

Credible Commitment and Council-Manager Government: Implications for Policy Instrument Choices

The credible constraint of morally hazardous or opportunistic behavior can enhance efficiency. This idea is applied to an examination of local government institutions to identify how council-manager government constrains opportunism in economic development by substituting low-power bureaucratic incentives for high-power electoral incentives. A panel design isolates changes in the use of development strategies or instruments in 516 cities.
The central argument presented here is that the Progressive ideology of the separation of politics and administration, institutionalized in the council-manager plan, allows administrators and elected officers to more easily resist opportunistic behavior. Economic and political forces have significant effects that are different for mayor-council communities than for council-manager communities. The influence of strategic planning is evident in council-manager cities, but not in mayor-council communities. Under council-manager government, development is carried out in a discriminating manner, leading to lower levels of financial incentives but more loan and business-attraction programs. In conclusion, the authors discuss how the career patterns of city managers are shaped by the incentive structures created by the council-manager plan.     

A Mountain to Climb: The Labour Together 2019 Election Review

The Labour Together review of the 2019 election brings together polling data, survey data, interviews, and submissions from across the Labour movement. An unpopular leader, tensions around the Brexit position, and a manifesto which was not seen as credible, are all found to have contributed to the scale of the defeat, but Labour’s unexpectedly strong performance in 2017 also masked long-term issues in its connection with the electorate and within the party’s campaign organisation. The report attempts to move beyond simply diagnosing the difficulties the party faces, but some of the thorniest issues for the party to resolve are nonetheless left unresolved.     

中国社会安全网研究——青岛市“阳光救助工程”的创新实践

"阳光救助工程"是青岛市2002年7月开始对中国的社会安全网建设进行的创新实践.它有效地保障了城市贫困人口特别是下岗、失业职工的基本生活权益.以青岛市"阳光救助工程"的创新实践为例,研究了中国地方政府创新对社会安全网建设的作用.通过分析"阳光救助工程"产生和发展的动力机制,并对该项举措的创新绩效进行评估后,认为,"阳光救助工程"的创新实践对完善中国社会安全网带来了许多启示.这些启示主要包括:第一,对城市贫困进行综合治理时,应在政府主导下扩大社会参与;第二,贫困问题并不单单体现在收入匮乏上,实际上还涉及到行为主体的物质、精神、社会地位等多个方面的表现;第三,从社会救济到社会救助体系的发展和完善中,应该充分发挥个人的主体性和能动性;第四,城市社会救助体系是一个多目标、多层次的社会系统,包括救济、就业、医疗等针对弱势群体的社会救助制度;第五,社区在社会安全网建设中应起到积极作用,充分发挥社区的社会保障作用.     

Explaining Different Trajectories in Immigrant Political Integration: Moroccans and Turks in Amsterdam

This article examines why the political integration and representation of ethnic minority groups may develop along different paths. Taking Amsterdam as a case study, it compares two of the city’s most predominant immigrant groups: Turks, who have taken a group-based incorporation strategy – visible in this group’s dense organisational infrastructure – and Moroccans, who have followed a more individualist assimilation strategy. The distinct trajectories have produced a relatively high proportion of Turkish-origin elected officials, while individuals of Moroccan origin feature more prominently in executive office, exercising power over day-to-day decisions. The article proposes that whereas features of the electoral system determine which opportunities exist for immigrants to participate in the political process, it is the structure of an immigrant group that affects the ability of members to seize such opportunities. Furthermore, it shows how political parties and party elites act as gatekeepers and facilitators of immigrants’ political participation.     

Can the Democrats Win Again?

After losing two successive elections, debate has raged within the Democratic party over how to win back power without comprising the principles which the party has long stood for. This article explores the reasons why the Democrats were unable to defeat George W. Bush in 2004, despite the numerous problems of the incumbent' first term, and asks what lessons the Democrats can learn from their defeat. The second half of the article focuses on what issues and policies the Democrats should concentrate and what strategies the party should adopt in order to improve its image and broaden its popular appeal ahead of the 2008 election.