The determinants of current account imbalances in the euro area: a panel estimation approach

The aim of this paper is to study the main macroeconomic, financial and structural characteristics that affected current account developments in the member-states of the euro area over the period 1980–2008. The model is based on the intertemporal consumption smoothing approach according to which current account positions are determined by saving and investment decisions. The analysis uses a panel of countries that consists of the initial 12 member states of the euro area and then it expands to 17 countries aiming to see whether the enlargement or potential enlargement would in any way alter the current account determinants. All the determinants of saving and investment decisions, which include factors such as the level of development, demographics, macroeconomic policies and competitiveness, appear to be important in underpinning sustained current account positions in the euro area countries.     

The Transparency Trap: Non‐Financial Disclosure and the Responsibility of Business to Respect Human Rights

This article examines the potential for transparency programs to improve corporations’ human rights performance. The primary focus is on “general” transparency programs such as the inclusion of human rights issues in sustainability reports. Regulators increasingly rely on such programs, one of which is the EU Directive on the Disclosure of Non‐financial Information, which many commentators view as a model for legislation in other countries and for a business and human rights treaty. This article identifies several problems with this approach. The human rights metrics used in current sustainability reporting standards often lack validity or are based upon data that is most easily collected, rather than most important. Moreover, the empirical evidence on sustainability reporting shows continued problems of selective disclosure, impression management, incomparable disclosures, and the use of disclosure as an end in itself (as opposed to a process that leads to organizational change). To move forward, regulators should shift focus to a model grounded in regulatory pluralism. Under this approach, regulators would combine a selection of targeted transparency mechanisms to create a more complete regulatory system that corrects for one disclosure mechanism's weaknesses by including others that have complementary strengths.     

The Convergence of Financial and ESG Materiality: Taking Sustainability Mainstream

Sustainability reporting can be seen as an attempt to bring improved environmental, social, and governance (ESG) practices to mainstream business. However, this movement to mainstream is hampered by the disconnect between financial and ESG information. Both reporting streams use the concept of materiality to shape firms’ disclosure obligations, but the term carries different meanings for different organizations. One sustainability organization, the Sustainability Accounting Standards Board (SASB), has developed reporting standards to merge sustainability and financial information by leveraging the definition of materiality for financial reporting purposes. This use of financial materiality positions the SASB to collide with the Security and Exchange Commission's (SEC) hands‐off attitude to ESG reporting. In the regulatory void left by the SEC's inaction on sustainability reporting, the SASB provides the best route to reconceptualize materiality in line with society's interest in sustainable business.     

Nonfinancial Risk Disclosure and the Costs of Private Ordering

In 2016 the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) considered for the first time whether financial disclosure reform should address information on sustainability matters and other sources of nonfinancial risk. The resulting debate over these issues raised fundamental questions about how well the federal disclosure regime addresses emerging risks and about how well private ordering, through shareholder engagement, the work of private standard‐setters, and corporate voluntary disclosure, can fill the gaps. This article argues that the current model of nonfinancial risk disclosure, based largely on private ordering, is ineffective and undermines the SEC's mission to protect investors, facilitate capital formation, and promote fair, orderly, and efficient markets. This conclusion rests on evidence that the current state of sustainability disclosure is inadequate for investment analysis and that these deficiencies are largely problems of comparability and quality that cannot readily be addressed by private ordering. This article also highlights the costs of agency inaction to investors and to public companies, which have been largely ignored in the debate over the future of financial reporting. It concludes by proposing avenues for disclosure reform.     

Speculators: Culture,economy and the legitimation of deviance

This article is a continuation and development of the author's thesis regarding deviant activity in the financial markets of the City of London. The thesis proposes that deviant activity in financial institutions has become legitimated in the sense of the failure of external regulatory controls to enforce order against the internally generated subcultural codes of practice which have developed consequent upon the forces of economic imperative (the ideology of excellence in the enterprise culture) and globalisation (the technological revolution). The thesis originally dealt with the period between 1984–1989 which was one characterised as “Casino Capitalism”. The current development of the thesis examines its continued relevance and proposes number of additional supporting elements and examples in its deployment as a critique of deviant financial activity.     

Obstacles to preserving precaution and equity in global hazardous waste regulation: an analysis of contested knowledge in the Basel Convention

The Basel Convention is regaining attention for the potential entry into force of the heretofore stalled Ban Amendment. In this paper, we draw parallels between the current debate surrounding the Ban Amendment and contestations that occurred in the early years of the Basel Convention’s Technical Working Group (TWG) over defining ‘hazardousness.’ Like the present debate, TWG deliberations involved a contestation between two divergent discourses concerning how hazardous wastes should be regulated—as ideally managed versus actually managed in the global South. Scholars have shown how the TWG is a site for industry to press for a definition of hazardousness favorable to their economic interests. However, explorations of the specific processes by which this occurred—particularly, how a framework for defining hazardousness that privileges private technical expertise over concerns of precaution and equity was successfully institutionalized within the TWG—have yet to be completed. We show that it is important to reexamine this debate today in order to better understand current Basel Convention developments.     

Transition accounting for India in a multi-sector dynamic general equilibrium model

Using a quantitative methodology designed specifically for emerging economies, we measure the components of India’s economic growth over the period 1960–2005. Our approach accounts for time-varying parameters, transitional dynamics and non-linear trends. We find that increased productivity in the service sector, facilitated by a structural shift toward services, is the principal driver of India’s economic growth. Our measures also suggest that the allocation of inputs across sectors has not improved over this period, and in the case of labor appears to have significantly worsened. We further find that fluctuations in output around its trend are due primarily to fluctuations in sector-specific total factor productivity, with fluctuations in labor market distortions and labor taxes also playing important roles. In the period 1960–1980, productivity fluctuations in the agricultural sector are the dominant source of cycles. Since then, productivity fluctuations in the manufacturing and service sectors have been more important.     

开放与安全:金融安全审查机制创新路径选择

我国金融业正在实行史无前例的全市场开放,金融安全成为关系国家经济安全以至国家主权安全的重要关注点。在国家安全审查机制与金融开放现实不匹配、金融安全审查机制缺位的现实中,我们必须创新性地将金融开放的政策逻辑转化为系统性立法模式,通过金融安全法律制度体系建设,增强制度竞争能力;通过紧实"防护网"与筑实"防护墙"的"靶向"定位与"点域"安全防范措施,抵御金融外部风险和系统性风险的侵蚀;通过双机制的职权定位与监管衔接,保障金融安全审查机制的有效运行,以确保金融开放背景下的国家金融安全。     

The Second CSF (Delors' II Package) for Greece and its Impact on the Greek Economy

The Greek Community Support Framework (CSF), which is operational during the period 1994-99, is designed to finance large-scale development projects and investment in physical and human capital in Greece, aiming to gear the economy onto a sustainable path of economic growth and development. This process of real convergence is viewed as a prerequisite for the cohesion of EU and the sustainability of the nominal convergence objective of the Maastricht Treaty in the way to Economic and Monetary Union of Europe. The paper provides, first, an overview of the Greek CSF and, second, an ex ante assessment of the effects that the Second CSF is likely to have on the economy of Greece. The analysis delineates four types of CSF actions according to whether they aim at (i) raising 'hard' infrastructure, (ii) financing 'soft' infrastructure interventions (such as R&D, health services, etc), (iii) supporting productive investment, and, (iv) training the labour force into new skills and improving the civil service. The effects are analysed first assuming that CSF operates only through raising the components of income and aggregate demand, and then by incorporating externalities on the productivity of output in various sectors and the reduction in costs. We find that in the absence of externalities, output rises during the period of the CSF 1994-99 but then returns to the benchmark course without any lasting improvement. When all types of externalities are taken into account, total output in year 2010 will be higher than baseline by an impressive 9.5%, and will continue to grow at a rate faster by 0.26% per annum than would be otherwise, while employment expands by an average of 95.000 new jobs.     

What happened to savings during the financial crisis—a dynamic panel analysis of Asian-5 countries

This article examines the determinants of saving rates in five Asian (Asian-5; Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand South Korea and the Philippines) countries over the 1970–2000 period. The focus is on the relationship between savings rates and foreign capital inflows before and in the financial crises. Major findings from the dynamic panel regressions are: (i) foreign savings depresses domestic savings ratio in the short as well as in the long run and the offset appears to be larger in the crisis period; (ii) real interest has a small negative effect on savings in the short and long run; (iii) the demographic factor explains a large portion of the long run trends but not the short-term fluctuations in savings rates; and (iv) high savings ratios in the countries studied is linked to the export sector.     

Opening Public Officials’ Coffers: A Quantitative Analysis of the Impact of Financial Disclosure Regulation on National Corruption Levels

Disclosure of income, assets and conflicts of interest can serve as powerful public accountability tools to draw attention to the abuse of public office, help prosecute corrupt offenders and create a culture of scrutiny in the public sector that deters corruption. Based on data of the World Bank’s Public Accountability Mechanisms initiative, we present the first indicator that captures a country’s financial disclosure in-law effort. By employing different panel data model specifications, we use this indicator to measure how the introduction of comprehensive financial disclosure systems impacted national corruption levels for 91 countries between 1996 and 2012. We present robust results that provide tentative evidence for a positive and significant relationship between a country’s capacity to control for corruption and the expansion of financial disclosure legislation for the years following the enactment.     

资产证券化中的超额担保制度研究

在西方资产证券化进程中,尤其是在"后金融危机时代",超额担保制度有助于降低投资风险,提高投资者信心,消弭金融危机的不利影响。为吸取美国金融危机的前车之鉴,我国在资产证券化起步阶段应引入该制度。超额担保的本质是债权质押,其质押标的是将来债权。在我国现行法律体系下,超额担保受制于现行的质押制度和破产法律制度设计。我国应制定专门的《资产证券化法》,明确资产证券化的性质,并对证券化资产的可让与性和出质问题予以专门规定,从而使超额担保制度既符合物权法定原则,又满足现实需要。通过控制超额比率和设置利差账户,以解决超额担保与现行破产法律之间的冲突问题。     

Is SADC an optimal currency area? Evidence from the generalized purchasing power parity test

In this paper we investigate the likelihood of a proposed monetary union in the Southern African Development Community (SADC) from the view point of the generalized purchasing power parity (GPPP) hypothesis and optimum currency area theory. We apply Johansen’s multivariate co-integration technique. The findings from this study confirm that GPPP holds among SADC member countries included in this study on account of cointegration and stationarity in real exchange rate series. South African rand normalized long run beta coefficients of all the real exchange rates are below one except in the case of the Mauritian rupee and all bear negative signs except in the case of the Angolan New Kwanza and Mauritian rupee. This is evidence that supports monetary union in the region except for Angola and Mauritius. Moreover, the panel cointegration tests also confirm the cointegration among real exchange rate series of SADC countries. However, the absolute magnitudes of the short run adjustment coefficients of SADC countries’ real exchange rates are low and bear positive signs in some cases. This finding implies that the observed slow speed of adjustment for (log) real exchange rate of SADC member states might constrain the effectiveness of stabilization policies in the wake of external shocks, rendering SADC countries vulnerable to macroeconomic instability in the region. This result has important policy implications for the proposed monetary union in SADC.     

我国农村金融问题及法律规制

构建和谐社会和建设社会主义新农村的战略方针,将"三农问题"摆在了现代化发展的最前沿。本文分析了我国农村金融立法的现状及存在的问题,并结合国外农村立法的经验,提出在我国应构建农村正规金融与非正规融资相结合的金融架构形式。在完善农村金融法律制度建设过程中,应走综合立法与分业立法相结合的道路。我国农村金融市场应尽快实现稳定发展,竞争适度的局面。     

RESEARCH ON DIVERSIFIED FINANCIAL DISPUTE RESOLUTION MECHANISMS IN CHINA

After the US Lehman mini-bonds crisis in 2008, global countries have been exploring the financial consumer protection legislation. This paper mainly focuses on the status quo and problems of China’s current financial mechanism, as well as how to construct a financial dispute resolution system and financial ombudsman system (FOS), how to employ mediation, arbitration and other various dispute resolution mechanisms to deal with financial disputes.     

Politicization,banking experience and risk in savings banks

During the global financial crisis, criticism of the politicization and lack of professionalization of the savings banks has taken a central position in the political debate. The aim of this article is to analyze if the political presence of governing bodies in Spanish savings banks has been reflected in their various risk-taking behaviors before and during the financial crisis. We will also analyze whether the influence of the chairman’s banking experience matters. The results do not provide evidence that the composition of the boards of savings bank, or even their politicization, have played a role. However we show that savings banks run by a chairman with previous banking experience are likely to be significantly more solvent and less volatile.     

Modelling structural change using the Kalman Filter

Structural change is endemic in the Eastern European economies and the newly emerging Commonwealth of Independent States, yet conventional econometric modelling techniques proceed under the assumption that there is a structurally stable ‘true’ economy to be discovered. This paper explores the consequences of endemic structural change for econometric modelling by considering the model reduction problem when the data generation process is itself undergoing structural change. The resultant econometric model, it is argued will generally exhibit time varying parameters where much of the structural change is reflected in the changing parameters. The use of Kalman Filters to estimate such changing parameters is then discussed and a range of specifications which allow the inclusion of different forms of identifying information is given. The paper then illustrates these ideas by modelling the determination of the black market exchange rate in Poland over the period from the mid 1970s to the early 1990s.     

The Feldstein–Horioka Puzzle and Twin Deficits in Selected Countries

Hysteresis (unit root) of the current account, fiscal balance, and investment shares is found for the majority of industrial countries as well as selected emerging and transition economies between 1970 and 2001. Twin deficits are defined as a positive long-run relationship between the current account and the fiscal balance. The paper provides evidence for twin deficits in several countries, although we can see differences between the 1980s and the 1990s. Investment in some EU countries is financed to a relatively high degree at the international financial markets implying that the Feldstein-Horioka puzzle is less important in the EU.     

Identifying Points of Contact and Engagement Between Legal and Environmental Education

This article explores the shaping and possibly reforming potential of ideas about sustainability in legal education by drawing up a scale of environmental education theories, arranged according to their propensity to transform radically university education. The article offers a critical analysis of current individualist strategies aimed at developing students' environmental skills, in particular that these hamper opportunities for universities to develop a broader and more creative agenda of social change. Applying ideas about how environmental education communities of practice develop, this article identifies some pockets of activity seeking to integrate ideas of sustainability into the law curriculum, including via environmental law and teaching Wild Law or Earth Jurisprudence. These issues form part of an on‐going debate about how well law students are being prepared for work in highly challenging social, environmental, and financial circumstances, against the backdrop of a broader question about ‘what are universities for?’     

A difficulty with oaths: On trust, trustworthiness, and signalling

In the wake of the Enron and Worldcom financial scandals that rocked Wall Street in 2002, the US government’s financial regulatory body, the Security and Exchange Commission (SEC) took the unprecedented step in June 2002 of requiring that the chief executives and chief financial officers of America’s 947 biggest companies to swear on oath that their company results and financial reports were to the best of their knowledge accurate. The one-off order was quickly followed by the passing of the Sarbanes-Oxely act, which will require many more CEOs and CFOs to certify their company reports and financial statements at regular intervals. In this paper we apply a simple signalling model to examine whether or not this type of institutional signal of trustworthiness is always efficient. We find that in the presence of signalling costs, the separating equilibrium can be socially inefficient as well as causing a general loss of trust. JEL classificationC72. D81. D82. K22