苏维埃制度崩溃原因的初步分析

苏联解体的轻率和突然令人震惊,但官方的苏联历史是神化的.并非国有制过度这种所谓的恶疾导致了苏维埃体制的崩溃.苏联经济落后及其被军备竞赛所耗尽只是意识形态的神话.石油价格波动同样未在苏联解体过程中发挥重要作用.后苏联时期俄罗斯相当长时期内的危机,不是从苏联延续下来,而是在拆解苏联时形成的.只有极少数公民有意识地否定苏维埃制度的主要基础.厘清苏联解体的原因,需要我们应打破教条和陈词滥调以及意识形态语言的藩篱.应区分苏维埃构想和其在实践中的具体表现--苏维埃制度.苏维埃构想并没有消灭自己,也没有退化或自我毁灭,而只是在成长中出现了疾病,其一系列制度无法适应苏联社会和苏联人发展的新形势.苏联体系的主要特点,或者说斯大林主义,是在 1905-1917年革命、内战、20 世纪 20 年代的新经济政策、30 年代的集体化和工业化、卫国战争期间形成的.当时的环境导致苏共在具体的制度设计上选择的范围很小,只能基于现实的威胁、资源潜力和历史上造就的具有惯性的文化环境.二战结束后,苏联的领导层未能妥善解决摆脱"斯大林主义",摆脱动员发展状态这样的复杂问题,进而导致了一系列的政治危机并由于冷战而深化其严重性.苏联既是被冷战的对手所扼杀,更死于自己的双手.苏联合法性的危机酝酿了 30年才成熟.苏维埃制度早期的合法性源自对群众对社会苦难的记忆.伴随着城市化的发展,至 20世纪 60-70年代,苏联社会从根本上发生了改变.但城市化给对苏维埃的不满制造了客观的前提条件.一种隐性的危险日益增大,即以前的苏维埃制度的思想基础迅速急剧地衰弱乃至消失.苏联短期内有两代感觉自己毫无生活保障的年轻人被改革、公开性、集会以及文化多元论弄得神魂颠倒.精英阶层的反苏部分的行动利用了这种世界观危机并使之加剧.而新一代领导人既无法迅速揭示也无法预防社会上已经出现的矛盾,而且无法找到有效的方法解决成熟的问题.党的高层与苏联社会现实的脱离令人震惊,他们自以为掌控着国内进程,但实际上底层的干部掌握着形势.这使得戈尔巴乔夫日益激进的改革导致雪崩式的后果.从这一意义上讲,苏联的解体是文明和世界观危机的结果.其实质在于,苏联社会与国家没能胜任在代际更替的过程中更新社会制度合法性手段的任务;无法保障文化历史类型嬗变的延续性,这种递嬗发生在现代化和城市化过程中并和整个社会走出20世纪20至50年代的动员型发展状态的危机相吻合.     

苏联为什么会终结?

1991年 3月17日全苏公投仍有高达 76%民众支持保留共同国家.但不到 9 个月之后,别洛韦日森林声明即宣布苏联终止存在.假如在公投举行以后,不是采取建立主权国家联盟的方针,而是循序渐进地建立一个"软"联邦,一开始仅限于建议签订建立共同经济空间的协议,分离主义者的目的就不会达到."8·19"事件更多是起了雷管的作用.先前的发展方式挖了苏联的墙角.导致苏联垮台的深层次经济原因体现在行政管理体系的结构性危机上.而由国家结构中长期缺乏联邦制引发的中央与各加盟共和国关系的危机,是苏联解体的另一个最重要的原因.保留苏共作为确保苏联统一的机制,其必要条件是党本身的民主化.制约苏共民主化的主要力量是党的机关,它实际上处于选举出来的党的机构之上.在帮助苏联走出经济困境方面,西方甚至"连手指头都没有动一下".而困难至极的经济形势在很大程度上注定了苏联的解体.     

1958年苏联从罗马尼亚撤军始末

1944年苏军进入罗马尼亚后,对其战后初期的政治、经济和社会都产生了很大的负面影响。1955年罗马尼亚首次要求苏联撤军,结果遭到赫鲁晓夫的强硬拒绝。经过不懈努力,1958年苏联终于同意罗方要求。苏联之所以同意撤军,主要是出于和平攻势的需要,也考虑到罗马尼亚处在一个不容易受西方国家攻击的地理位置,同时也是对罗马尼亚忠诚的"奖赏"。苏军的撤出为罗马尼亚以后独立自主政策的实施大开了方便之门。     

苏联末期的货币战——透视苏联解体的新视角

苏联末期,在卢布贬值的未来预期下,各加盟共和国展开激烈的银行信贷竞争,同时实行了限制卢布涌入、物资流出的经济封锁。进而,面对俄联邦汹涌而至的卢布潮水,发行主权货币成为小国寡民型共和国防止卢布占领、摆脱自身经济困境的良策。而某个加盟共和国的主权货币行动必然在整个苏联内部引发多米诺骨牌效应。统一的卢布流通域遭遇被15个彼此独立的货币流通域瓜分并取代的命运,作为主权国家的苏联也就在货币层面被摧毁。考察苏联末期的货币战是探寻苏联解体过程的一条重要线索,对于揭开苏联解体之谜具有一定的启示意义。     

从政治整肃到行政规训:新经济政策时期苏维埃政权的知识分子政策

十月革命既是伟大的政治革命,同时也是深刻的"思想革命"以及更为艰巨的"文化革命".新经济政策既是苏维埃政权在经济领域政策的重大调整,也是其在文化政策和意识形态上的重大变化.出于政权安全和国家安全的考虑,苏维埃政权对部分反共反苏知识分子采取了政治整肃、司法镇压乃至驱逐出境的手段,这在当时曾在相当大的程度发挥了积极作用,但同时也遗留下了历史隐患.     

Emptying lakes,filling up seas: hydroelectric dams and the ambivalences of development in late Soviet Central Asia

ABSTRACT

In the late Soviet Union, large-scale projects such as the Toktogul Dam in the Kyrgyz Soviet Republic were promoted as emblems of the Soviet model of development in Asia. While Central Asian politicians and intellectuals usually tuned in to the enthusiasm, the construction also revealed different opinions about the precise direction and goals of Soviet development. Large-scale investments became focal points of political and intellectual debates; they not only helped bind the periphery closer to the Soviet centre, but also revealed the different economic, political and cultural priorities of the regional, republican and union-wide actors. The construction of dams and reservoirs eventually triggered conflicts between the republics and laid the foundation for an anti-colonial critique of the late Soviet state.     

以赛亚·伯林视野下的苏联知识分子和苏联文化

以赛亚·伯林先后于1945、1956、1988年访问苏联。三次访问都时值苏联历史发展的关键时刻。伯林所到之处,刻意留心考察苏联文化艺术、知识分子生存和创作状况、知识分子与政府的关系,并且以其自由主义理念加以深刻的分析和批判。     

The Soviet study of the Barefooted Flight of the Kazakhs

The defeat, devastation and exile of the Kazakhs in the early eighteenth century, commonly known as the Barefooted Flight, was the nation's most distressing pre-Soviet calamity. Kazakh nation-building and official remembrance projects – commemorated in state ceremonies, public education and popular culture – portray an uninterrupted, centuries-old practice of tribute to local heroes who challenged the foreign aggressors. Twentieth-century Kazakh and Russian intellectuals in the Soviet and post-Soviet eras studied and enshrined these events based on published, secondary sources, rarely giving attention to the thin trail of documents preserved in state archives. The historiography of the Barefooted Flight exposed a trend in how politically convenient historical lessons shaped the interpretation of events. By the end of the Soviet Union, some archival material was introduced, it was but misquoted so as not to challenge the current interpretation.     

1968年“普韦布洛”号危机初期的美苏交涉

1968年普韦布洛号危机发生前后,约翰逊政府最高决策层依旧在很大程度上坚持共产主义铁板一块的观点,一致认为朝鲜此举的目的在于支持北越,苏联参与其中,甚至是主谋。于是,美国的第一反应便是寻求苏联的帮助,要求对方迫使朝鲜还船放人。苏联一面拒绝充当调停者,一面暗中规劝朝鲜尽快以和平方式解决危机。然而,最终苏联的努力未见成效。此次美苏交涉充分表明:虽然中苏同盟破裂已成定局,但华盛顿依旧固守过往的冷战思维,深信苏朝越的对外战略是协调一致的;1960年代末,在中苏分裂和朝韩竞争的特定时局下,苏联这个社会主义超级大国已无力真正影响朝鲜外交政策的走向。     

Orientalism,otherness, and the Soviet empire: travelogues by Latvian writers of the Soviet period

ABSTRACT

The development of travel writing in a national literature is closely related to the geographical and mental cartography that characterizes that territory. This article investigates Latvian travelogues of the Soviet era as encounters with other nations within the Soviet empire in order to analyze the role of Latvian travel writings in shaping a feeling of belonging to the empire. In addition to fostering obedience and a sense of belonging to the Soviet empire during the first 15 oppressive years of the Soviet regime, Latvian travelogues of the later years represented the Soviet empire as a conflictual site of the destruction of traditional values and landscapes.     

The Estonian Economy Under Soviet Rule: A Historiographic Overview

In order to evaluate our current knowledge of some aspects of the Estonian economy under Soviet rule, this historiographic article reviews a number of available treatments, divided into three subgroups (works by authors in Soviet Estonia, publications by Estonians in exile and recent studies). The article demonstrates that different and contradictory interpretations of the economic development of the ESSR can be found. The author concludes that more detailed estimates of the living standard and economic growth during the Soviet years, which would be the basis of economic history writing, have yet to be established.     

Bourgeoisie as internal orient in the Soviet Lithuanian literature: Roses Are Red by A. Bieliauskas, 1959

ABSTRACT

In this paper, the concept of internal colonization is applied to the Soviet initiatives of re-socializing the large parts of the population and creating a socialist working class from peasantry, artisans, and residues of the bourgeoisie. The internal colonization, or the power relations between native Communists and their subalterns in Lithuania, is analyzed on the basis of Roses Are Red, a novel by Bieliauskas. Here, class is invented as substitute of race. The Soviet socialists stand for hegemonic standards of “normalcy,” whereas bourgeoisie is portrayed as subject of difference, as internal Orient and as internal colony, and the relationship between the two can be legitimately defined as internal colonialism.     

Winning Friends,Influencing People: Soviet Cultural Diplomacy in Australia, 1928–1968

This article draws on largely unpublished archive materials to examine the strategies employed by the USSR to manage its cultural relations with Australia as a means of extending its influence beyond its traditional supporters in trade union and socialist movements. The activities of key players like the All‐Union Society for Cultural Relations with Foreign Countries (VOKS), the Union of Soviet Friendship Societies (SSOD) and the International Commission of the Union of Soviet Writers and their interaction with Australian organizations and individuals identified and cultivated as contacts of influence are reviewed in the context of the changing international situation and an often problematic bilateral political relationship.     

Ahmad Amin and nationalism

With the breakup of the Soviet Union at the end of the Cold War, three republics in the South Caucasus (Georgia, Armenia, and Azerbaijan) achieved independence for the second time during the twentieth century. Their first experience was contentious and short-lived, had little or no support from the Western powers and was brought to end by the newly formed Soviet Union with the tacit approval of Turkey. While Georgian, Armenian and Azerbaijani national aspirations were quashed in the early post-First World War era, Zionism was given encouragement with the establishment of the Palestine Mandate. When Israel was established it was given immediate recognition by the Soviet Union, but most Jews from Georgia and Azerbaijan – Armenia's population was very small in comparison – only made their way to Israel during the last years of the Cold War. On the other hand, following the Second World War, some members of the Armenian Diaspora, including those in the Arab world, immigrated to the Soviet Union. While Soviet-Israeli relations had been strained since the Six-Day War, the end of the Cold War not only brought better ties between Russia and Israel, but it allowed Israel to establish relations with the other successor states of the former Soviet Union. Many of those countries sought ties with Israel (and the other Western states) to insure their continued independence from Russia, while, at the same time, Arab-Israeli relations improved and Turkey and Israel drew closer together. Iran was regarded with suspicion by Azerbaijan and along with Georgia, which wanted to enhance its ties with the West, drew closer to Turkey. Both countries have benefited from the transport of oil. Jews from Georgia and Azerbaijan have kept close connections with their former countries, where anti-Semitism was never the problem it was in Russia. Armenia has remained the closest to Russia with its conflict with Azerbaijan over Nagorno Karabakh and its distrust of Georgia. However, Armenians experienced genocide at the hands of the Ottomans and have sought support from Israel over that issue.     

An Empirical Analysis of Soviet Economic Relations with Developing Countries

Soviet trade with the developing countries is analyzed using formal statistical techniques. Soviet imports of primary products are found to grow more rapidly but to be no more stable than imports of these products by market economies. Evidence is found of Soviet price discrimination in trade in favor of LDC members of the CMEA and against LDCs with which it has bilateral clearing agreements (BCAs). BCAs are correlated with greater trade volumes, relatively diverse export structures and more stable LDC exports to the Soviet Union. No evidence exists that Soviet aid deliveries are linked systematically with later Soviet imports. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: 124, 421, 443     

The International Commission for the Evaluation of the Crimes of the Nazi and Soviet Occupation Regimes in Lithuania: successes,challenges, perspectives

The article summarizes the history of the International Commission for the Evaluation of the Crimes of the Nazi and Soviet Occupation Regimes in Lithuania and outlines the work it has accomplished to date. The author reviews the problems and controversies surrounding the Commission’s research into the post-1940 period of Lithuania’s history and describes the clashing perspectives inherent in the starkly different Lithuanian, Jewish, Western and Soviet wartime narratives.     

Persistence and change in Soviet and Russian relations with Afghanistan

This paper examines persistence and change in the Soviet Union's and then Russia's relations with Afghanistan with respect to development and security. First, a detailed analysis of the promise and reality of Soviet development assistance reveals conceptual shortcomings in their attempt to induce economic development in Afghanistan. The Soviet Union's heritage is then revealed in order to understand Russia's current perception of post-Taliban Afghanistan as well as Russia's emerging interests and commitment to Afghanistan's economic development. This paper argues that Russia will most likely replicate standard industrialization development approaches in contributing to Afghanistan's development. Therefore, Russia will probably run into problems similar to those that led to the failure of the Soviet modernization project, which consisted of large-scale development projects that were inappropriate to the country's institutions and the lives of most Afghans. It is questionable whether such reiteration will induce economic development now, in the complex setting of a fragmented and fragile state with a multitude of external players looking out for their own interests.     

苏东社会结构转型的社会学分析:阶级与阶层的视野

本文通过对苏联东欧社会变迁的实证分析,从社会结构分层的视角探索苏东社会转型的原因及过程.首先,高度工业化与城市化所导致的城乡社会结构的改变,是苏联东欧社会转型的根本原因,这是它与东亚、拉美等国或地区的社会转型具有深层关联性的一面.而农民迁移到城市的结构性流动所产生的复杂流动机制和分层机制,对苏东社会转型带来了直接的影响和冲击.苏东社会的中间阶层,其价值观、社会功能和政治态度对激进的制度转型具有不可低估的作用.其次,先是深层次的社会结构发生转变,即由农民向城市工人的阶级分层发生变化,然后才是表层的社会结构发生转变,即在市场化背景下,苏东社会的阶层分层因利益多元化而发生分化.苏东社会结构转型的具体过程明显地分为这两个阶段.     

Religious change in Estonia and the Baltic states during the Soviet period in comparative perspective

Abstract

The article presents a comparative-historical treatment of the change in the religious life of Estonia from 1940 to 1991, when Estonia was part of the Soviet Union. The article is based largely on documents of the archive of the Estonian commissioner of the Council for the Affairs of Religious Cults of the Soviet Union, documents which were not available to researchers before the collapse of the USSR. Religious change in Estonia has been compared to what happened in the neighbouring Baltic countries. The archival data shows an extraordinary decline of institutionalised religion in Estonia during the Soviet period (especially in the Lutheran and Orthodox Churches). Compared to the other republics of the Soviet Union (especially Catholic Lithuania), this fall was particularly drastic in “Lutheran” Estonia and Latvia. Also, some comparisons are made between Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, and the rest of Europe, in order to test the author's hypothesis that by the end of the Soviet occupation, Estonian society was among the most highly secularised ones in Europe (or possibly the most secularised).