日本对外直接投资缓解日美贸易摩擦的效果及其启示

对外直接投资是战后日本应对贸易摩擦的主要对策之一.特别是20世纪70年代以后,随着日美贸易摩擦的加剧,日本相继出现了三次对外直接投资高潮,日本对外直接投资一方面起到了缓解日美贸易摩擦的作用,这在彩电业和汽车业表现的非常明显;另一方面导致了日美投资摩擦.目前中国正处于对外贸易摩擦的高发期,应借鉴日本的经验教训,根据中国国内产业结构调整的需要,大力发展境外直接投资,同时要积极防范由此引起的投资摩擦和产业空心化问题.     

中美贸易摩擦及其影响

近年来,随着中美经贸关系的快速发展,双边贸易摩擦也呈现日益加剧的趋势.贸易不平衡、纺织品特保、对华反倾销等问题构成了中美贸易摩擦的主要内容.中美两国经济利益的争夺、美国国内贸易保护主义的回流以及美国对中国的战略遏制等是双边贸易摩擦日益增多的主要原因.贸易摩擦对中美经贸关系的发展带来了较大的消极影响.     

疫情冲击背景下日本产业链重构政策及影响

随着全球化潮流减退,日本企业撤资现象日益引人关注,疫情冲击导致的产业链断裂,促使日本将维护产业链稳定上升到战略高度。促进制造业企业回归本土、在东南亚地区实现生产多元化是日本产业链重构的两个重要方向,日本政府出台产业链重构政策,采用产业补助金措施,对日企调整产业链布局产生实际作用。短期内增强了日本医疗卫生器材、关键零部件供给,长期内加快日企产业链的多元化分散进程。当前对中国经济健康稳定发展影响较小,中日经贸关系经受住了中美贸易摩擦和疫情冲击的双重挑战,日企并未出现大规模撤离的现象。     

中日贸易中的问题与对策

中国加入WTO后的新形势及中国良好的投资环境,为进一步扩大中日双边贸易创造了机遇,但也存在制约因素.一是双边贸易中产生摩擦的机率增多;二是贸易摩擦的范围扩大;三是日本政府放任日元贬值牵制中国对外经贸发展.要进一步扩大中日双边贸易,就要克服不利因素,建立健全协调型竞争机制.     

有助于东北亚经济发展的半岛南北以及中国三方协作方案

一　绪　论世界经济呈现出全球化和地区协作两种发展趋势。中国加入世界贸易组织、 2 0 0 4年 12月末展开关于服务行业与农产品领域多方会谈 (DohaDe velopmentAgenda)等全球化的进程正在加快 ;2 0 0 4年欧盟扩大为包括 2 5个国家的庞大联合体 ;2 0 0 5年北美自由贸易协定 (NAFTA)也要发展为包括 34个国家的地区经济联合体。世界经济的这种变化 ,已经成为韩、中、日以及东亚国家重新确认地区经济合作必要性的良好契机。东亚金融危机以后 ,ASEAN十国于 1998年举行了ASEAN +3峰会 ;随着中国的发展 ,韩、中、日三国讨论了有关在地区内…     

中日农产品贸易的定因分析及对策研究

中国和日本作为世界上两大经济体,其经济结构的互补性使两国间的贸易发展很快。 日本已连续9年成为中国最大的贸易伙伴,中国也已多年成为日本的第二大贸易伙伴。 1996年至2002年7月,在中日贸易中,中国对日本的出超持续,且基本上呈现出一年比一 年扩大的趋势。就农产品贸易而言,现状并不乐观,从2001年开始,双边农产品贸易出现停 滞;2002出现了下滑,其中,中国农产品对日出口额下滑幅度较大。     

小岛清思想与中国对外经济关系的新发展

随着对外贸易、投资、金融改革与国际全面接轨并进一步朝向自由化方向发展,中国对外经济关系也呈现出新的变化特征:中国贸易大国地位的迅猛上升引起了贸易摩擦与贸易结构优化问题;外国直接投资的持续增长带来了产业竞争力以及双向投资的平衡化问题;金融汇率制度的改革则提出了国家经济安全与金融政策影响力的评估问题。本文将运用小岛清有关贸易与投资一体化的理论,针对中国对外经济关系的新发展中出现的贸易、投资与金融改革问题的内在关联性进行系统的分析。     

制度距离、文化差异与中美贸易摩擦中的权力因素——基于1980~2018年美国对外贸易争端数据的定量研究

中美贸易摩擦是体系压力和美国国内因素共同作用的结果。基于1980~2018年美国对外贸易争端数据的定量研究,文章采用面板负二项模型对中美两国间的制度距离、文化差异和相对实力差距的缩小等结构性变量,以及美国国内政治等单元层次的中介变量、贸易和投资等渠道变量,对中美贸易摩擦的影响进行了实证考察。研究认为,中美间军事、经济和科技实力差距的缩小即相对实力分布的变化会显著强化美国作为守成大国对中国作为崛起大国发起贸易摩擦的可能性;中美两国间的政治、经济制度距离和文化差异或价值观的不同也会显著影响中美两国间发生贸易摩擦的可能性,同时,与美国政治关系良好、在制度和文化上与其接近的国家并不必然意味着与美国贸易摩擦的减少;美国国内不同政治行为体、社会行为体的利益诉求、政策偏好,与贸易的交互效应一起,会进一步增加中美两国因实力差距的缩小、制度和文化(观念)差异等体系因素或结构性变量所引发的贸易摩擦发生的概率;经济因素依然是决定中美贸易摩擦的基础性因素,中美贸易失衡、中国对美直接投资的迅速增加以及中国对美国市场渗透率的提升、美国国内经济绩效的波动、美国国内收入不平等程度的加剧,与贸易的收入分配效应一起,也会显著提升两国间发生贸易摩擦的可能性。     

浅析中日经贸关系的发展趋势

在中国改革开放以来的20多年中,中日经贸关系通过互惠合作已经发展成为"你中有我,我中有你"的关系.本文通过分析中日经济关系对中日两国经济的重要性和中日经济的互补性,认为从长期来看,中日经济关系还会向互惠互利的方向发展.     

日本金融安全措施对我国的启示

随着冷战的结束,世界进入了以和平发展为主流的时代,经济安全上升为国家安全的重要内容.随着当前经济全球化进程的加快,金融安全已经成为国家经济安全的核心.因此,防范金融风险,确保国家经济安全,引起了越来越多的国际政界要人、战略专家、经济巨头的关注.本文通过对中日金融安全问题的对比研究,探讨了我国金融业的现状及开放条件下国际市场对我国金融安全的冲击,并提出了一些对策和措施.     

Macroeconomic Policies and Agricultural Terms of Trade,Bangladesh, 1952–2005

Agricultural prices in Bangladesh have had a tendency to rise at a faster rate than industrial prices since the early 1950s. The resulting rising trend in the agricultural terms of trade has been pronounced since the mid-1980s when Bangladesh introduced IMF- and World Bank-supported deregulatory economic reforms. This rising trend in the agricultural terms of trade is inconsistent with the Prebisch-Singer thesis in the context of domestic economy, which suggests a secular deterioration in the terms of trade for primary products vis-à-vis manufactured products. It is, however, consistent with the view of classical economists who saw the possibility of an upward trend in the terms of trade for agricultural products (food) because of diminishing returns in agriculture. In fact, the classical idea of the rising terms of trade for primary products makes sense in a land-constrained growing economy with increasing population, such as Bangladesh, which remained semi-closed until the mid-1980s. This article reviews macroeconomic policies in Bangladesh since the 1950s, examines the time-series properties of agricultural prices, industrial prices and the agricultural terms of trade and draws inference on the issue whether the agricultural sector was squeezed systematically by turning the terms of trade against agriculture for industrialisation of the country.     

中国印尼货物贸易互补性分析

中国是印度尼西亚最主要的贸易伙伴之一,既是印尼最大的出口目的地,也是印尼第一大进口来源国。而对于中国来说,印尼不是主要的贸易伙伴,只是一个快速增长的新兴市场。从中印尼两国贸易商品结构分析的结论看,印尼可以在农业原材料、食品、燃料、矿物和金属方面加大对中国的出口,而中国可以在制成品方面加大对印尼的出口。两国贸易的互补性指数表明两国在技术条件、要素禀赋、所处的经济发展阶段等方面存在较大差异,基本属于垂直型产业间贸易,具有较为广阔的贸易发展空间。当前中国与印尼的贸易正面临着一些障碍与困境:印尼频繁对中国发起贸易救济立案,中国与印尼之间的传统能源贸易也面临不可持续的困境。鉴于以上各种原因,中国企业可以通过投资印尼,来提升两国的经济合作水平。     

从应对贸易摩擦到预防经济脱钩:2019年中国经济外交形势分析

2019年,中国经济外交在严峻的国际经济环境中负重前行,取得了一系列进展。首先,以建设性姿态与美国展开经贸谈判,最终在年底达成中美第一阶段贸易协议,避免了中美经贸关系的进一步恶化。其次,积极加大对欧洲、日本、俄罗斯以及东南亚等主要经济体的经济外交,推动国际经济合作,力促RCEP完成谈判。这些努力在一定程度上化解了中美贸易战带来的负面影响。第三,中国的"带路"外交进入机制化建设的新阶段,尤其是新建立的"一带一路"新闻与智库交流机制得到各方积极响应。展望2020年,中美经贸关系依然错综复杂,WTO改革压力重重,欧洲和日本等主要经济体对中国的疑虑可能会进一步发酵,中国经济外交依旧充满挑战。     

Alternative production and consumption relations?: fair trade,the state,and cooperatives in the global South

This paper explores the relation between the fair trade market in the North and producer cooperatives in the South. It specifically focuses on three agricultural cooperatives in Ethiopia, Tanzania, and South Africa to look at the way in which the fair trade market and the state have promoted or hindered alternative production in the global South. Fair trade has gained considerable popularity among Northern consumers in the last decade. For many consumers, the assumption is that buying fair trade ensures producers in the South receive a fair price for their goods. However, fair trade is much more complex than consumer choices or simply offering fair prices to producers. Does fair trade constitute an alternative trading system or is it an attempt to introduce fairer conditions within the current system? What is the role of the state? What is the role of the market? Are there other ways to ensure producers in the global South receive fair prices? These are the central questions explored in this paper.     

中国与印尼经贸关系的互补性和竞争性分析

中国与印尼的经贸关系从1950年两国建交以来,发展并不顺利,其间曾一度中断近20年之久,只是到20世纪末和21世纪初才得到快速发展.本文运用国际贸易理论和国际关系理论来重点分析两国之间经贸的竞争性和互补性,通过分析得出结论:从目前看,中国和印尼两国的经贸存在互补性,但互补性不是很大.随着两国经济的发展,新的国际分工的形成,双方经贸的互补性可以扩大.同时,随着中国人世和中国一东盟自由贸易区的建立,两国经贸关系必将得到进一步扩大和发展.     

日本服务贸易国际竞争力的实证分析

随着知识经济时代的到来,落后的服务贸易日益成为日本经济发展的障碍。本文利用服务贸易国际竞争力指标体系,对自1997年以来的日本服务贸易国际竞争力进行了评价,发现日本1997年贸易政策的变革在一定程度上推动了日本服务贸易的发展,日本服务贸易出口增长优势明显,国际竞争力略有提高,但相对于其他发达国家而言,日本的服务贸易国际竞争力整体水平仍然相对较低,有待进一步提高。     

Trilateral trade relations among China,Japan and South Korea: Challenges and prospects of regional economic integration

China’s emergence as a global and regional manufacturing center has significant implications for the Northeast Asian economies of Japan and South Korea. China's trade with Japan and South Korea has been rapidly growing in relative importance, largely facilitated by China's rise as a regional production base as well as changes in the trade structures between China and her neighbours. Indeed, in recent years, China has been the main driving force behind Northeast Asian trade interdependency. The strong economic linkages and complementarities among China, Japan and South Korea augur well for the further integration among the three Northeast Asian countries. Establishing a trilateral free trade arrangement (FTA) provide new opportunities to enhance the three countries’ overall growth potential through trade and investment. However, such Northeast Asian regional integration is destined to be a long, drawn out process. The forging of a trilateral trading arrangement between China and her two neighbours remain a long term vision in view of the many outstanding issues and obstacles.     

The Utilization of “Surplus” labor in the people's republic of China

Abstract

For decades, economists concerned with the problems of economic development have noted the typical existence of surplus labor in heavily populated, underdeveloped countries, most notably those of Asia, in which the factor endowment consists of abundant and often rapidly growing labor forces coupled with scarcity of both land and capital. In such countries, the vast majority of the population usually is engaged in agricultural activities and, at a minimum, is characterized by substantial seasonal unemployment during the slack agricultural times of the year and, more typically, also has substantial disguised unemployment throughout the entire year. Also characteristic of such countries is a continuing large-scale migration of labor from rural to urban areas, which transforms the disguised agricultural unemployment into open urban unemployment as the newly (and not-so-newly) arrived urban residents discover that the jobs they seek are substantially fewer than the number of job-seekers. Furthermore, even those fortunate enough to find urban employment often appear to be substantially underemployed, for example, in jobs within the government sector, in petty retail trade, and as messengers and private household servants. Even in countries that have been experiencing relatively high levels of investment and fairly rapid rates of economic growth, the employment problems are far from eliminated and cause social and political problems as well as economic ones. It seems ironic that in such countries there exists simultaneously so many people seeking work and so much work that could be accomplished and could raise basic living standards if the unemployed (and underemployed) workers could be engaged in productive (and more productive) activities.     

Participation of African member states in the World Trade Organisation (WTO) multilateral trading system

Abstract

The core purpose and goals of the World Trade Organisation (WTO) are to enhance growth by allowing each country to trade freely according to its comparative advantage. The other stated main objectives of the WTO are: raising standards of living; providing full employment; reduction of tariffs and non‐tariff barriers; and the elimination of discriminatory treatment. According to the current orthodox economic view, trade openness is essential for growth: countries that liberalise their imports and orientate production towards exports are assumed to have faster growth than those that do not, and the faster the rate of opening, the greater will the prospect be for development. The emphasis on trade liberalisation and export orientation in the past ten years following the adoption of the Uruguay Round has led to phenomenal growth in world merchandise trade, which has grown consistently faster than output. The orthodox view approach is today expanded and modified with the view that liberalisation measures are not sufficient by themselves and should be accompanied by other factors such as sound macroeconomic policies, good governance and a modern infrastructure. Africa's dependence on primary commodities as a source of export earnings has meant that it is vulnerable to weather conditions, market vagaries, and price volatility, arising mainly from supply shock and the secular decline in real commodity prices. The attendant terms of trade losses have exacted heavy costs in terms of incomes, indebtedness, investment, poverty and development. Therefore, the basic approach that liberalisation has a direct link to economic growth and should be undertaken as fast as possible is being questioned and has been challenged by empirical studies in recent years. The relevant studies have shown that there is a lack of relationship between the degree of trade liberalisation and the rate of growth. The emerging paradigm accepts that there are possible costs, as well as potential benefits of trade liberalisation to a particular developing country, depending on the conditions in that country, and the type of liberalisation undertaken. The other impediments and weaknesses identified as affecting effective, efficient and economical participation of African members in the WTO include rapid liberalisation as potential source of fiscal instability; general absence of peace, security and democracy; globalisation and lack of competitive ability; supply‐side constraints; high export concentration ratio; problems of implementation; exclusion and/or marginalisation from knowledge‐based economy; and lack of capacity. The Doha Development Round was initiated to attend to, and address, these problems, and it is still too early to predict the outcome. African countries need to look for African solutions to their socio‐economic and political problems, adopting transdisciplinary approaches in the context of the African Renaissance paradigm.     

美国工会对中美经贸关系的影响

近年来,美国工会对国际经贸乃至世界经济的影响日益凸现,我国政府和企业应积极采取相应措施积极应对。本文分析了美国工会的特点及对中美经贸活动的影响,并提出了一些应对之策。