Transition, the Evolution of Stock Market Efficiency and Entry into EU: The Case of Romania

In this paper we demonstrate that the measurement of stock market efficiency is an important activity in establishing whether eastern European countries satisfy the Copenhagen Criteria for EU membership. Specifically, we argue that developing an efficient stock market should be an important policy focus for countries with aspirations to join the EU as it helps to demonstrate the existence of a functioning market economy. We illustrate this issue by examining the evolution of stock market efficiency in the Bucharest Stock Exchange from mid-1997 to September 2002. We use a GARCH model on daily price data and model the disturbances using the Student-t distribution to allow for ‘fat-tails’. We find strong evidence of inefficiency in the Bucharest Stock Exchange in that the lagged stock price index is a significant predictor of the current price index. This result is robust to the inclusion of variables controlling for calendar effects of the sort that have been observed in more developed stock markets. The level of inefficiency appears to diminish over time and we find evidence consistent with stock market efficiency in Romania after January 2000.     

Threshold Modelling of Stock Return Volatility on Eastern European Markets.

A common finding for developed stock markets is that negative shocks entering the market lead to a larger return volatility than positive shocks of a similar magnitude. The following paper considers two emerging Eastern European Markets where the first point of investigation is whether an analogous asymmetric characteristic is reflected in emerging markets. The second point of investigation is whether the findings differ depending on the institutional microstructure of the exchange being examined. Hence, econometric techniques are adjusted and a ‘double-censored tobit GARCH’ model is developed. This paper finds that no asymmetry exists on either markets and possible reasons for this are proposed. JEL Classification: G14, G15, P21, P34.     

Real Estate Markets Are Informationally Efficient: Evidence from Buyer and Agent/Broker Surveys

This article presents new evidence based on unpublished buyer surveys and real estate agent and broker surveys supporting the consensus in the published literature that real estate markets are informationally efficient. This evidence is drawn from expert reports submitted in litigation involving claims that contamination caused property value diminution, and presents a new hedonic regression model of residential sales prices that includes as an independent variable the state of knowledge of the buyer regarding a contamination event. In this model the state of knowledge of the buyer has no statistically significant effect on the sales price. The article also discusses standards for the use of buyer and agent/broker surveys in litigation.     

Do Market Participants Learn? The Case of the Budapest Stock Exchange

In the paper we consider one of the faster growing Central European emerging markets: the Budapest Stock Exchange (BSE), in order to see whether the market becomes more weak-form efficient over time. The Hungarian exchange is selected because it is the oldest stock exchange operating in the region and, in 1995, it was the first Central European exchange admitted by the London Stock Exchange as a properly regulated stock exchange. As an econometric tool for comparative analysis, we use a Test for Evolving Efficiency (TEE). In a comparison of nine stocks and the market index (BUX) we found that the BSE becomes more mature but the process is surprisingly slow.     

Business dynamics,industry productivity growth,and the distribution of firm-level performance: evidence for the role of ICT using Dutch firm-level data

We present evidence on industry productivity growth and business dynamics in Dutch industries for the period 2007–2012, and investigate whether there is a role for ICT intensity in explaining differences across industries. Moreover, we relate ICT intensity to various distributional characteristics of firm performance, such as the dispersion of labor productivity and turnover, concentration and turbulence of market shares, and the efficiency of resource allocation. In the first part of the paper we follow a decomposition approach, whereas in the second part we apply a regression based analysis. The results suggest that productivity growth is higher in ICT production and industries with high ICT usage, but that ICT also increases differences in firm performance and leads to concentration of markets. In addition, there is evidence that markets are more efficient in ICT intensive industries.     

Oil price shocks and stock market returns of the GCC countries: empirical evidence from quantile regression analysis

This paper examines the effects of oil price shocks on the stock market returns of the Gulf Cooperation Council countries. The empirical method used is quantile regression analysis. In addition, we allow for structural breaks and asymmetry by differentiating between positive and negative oil price changes. Unlike OLS analysis, quantile regression allows the coefficient estimates to vary throughout the distribution of the dependent variable, which provides a complete picture of the relationship between the explanatory variables and the dependent variable. Our results suggest that the coefficient estimates have not been constant throughout the distribution of stock returns; that oil price shocks have asymmetrical effects on stock returns; and that the effects of oil price shocks on stock market returns are affected by stock market conditions. Overall, the results suggest that rising oil prices increase stock returns only when stock markets are bullish (high quantiles) and normal (medium quantiles), and that falling oil prices lower stock returns only when stock markets are bearish (low quantiles) and normal (medium quantiles). This suggests that oil and stock markets are more likely to boom together or crash together.     

Measuring the correlation of shocks between the EU15 and the new member countries

This paper considers the question of the symmetry of inflation, exchange rate changes and GDP shocks between the EU15 and the new member countries. It applies a relatively new technique, the orthogonal GARCH model, which allows us to calculate a complete time varying correlation matrix for these countries. We can then examine the way the conditional correlation of shocks between the EU15 and the new member countries has been evolving over time. Our results suggest that the shocks which hit the EU are not symmetrical with those affecting the majority of new member countries. In addition, most of the new member countries seem to exhibit relatively low correlation with EU15.     

Regulating Risky Business: Dilemmas in Security Regulation*

This paper examines the dilemma of regulating the complex and highly differentiated stock market. I argue that regulations, with legitimacy needs for status neutrality, serve mostly to protect investors with limited capacity for managing risk on their own. In competitive markets, players with greater capacity for risk management (e.g., access to market intelligence, sizeable reserves to cushion losses and enhanced technologies for risk assessment) seek out new arrangements for managing risk. These new privatized forms of risk management interact with the markets and market regulation in ways that undermine the regulatory program for those who depend on it most. I illustrate this form of regulatory bias by examining events surrounding Black Monday, the stock market crash of October 1987.     

Mortgage credit risk in EU countries: Constraints on exploiting the single currency market

The adoption of a single EU currency market raises questions about how individual country mortgage policies are likely to affect the gains that can be realized from this larger market. We use an option pricing model to provide some perspective on this issue. We address questions such as how does the risk exposure of a mortgage guarantee program in one country compare with those in other countries? What kind of effects do any such differences or varying legal restrictions on lender recourse have? Do the programs help complete financial markets? That is, are the programs structured as unsubsidized financial intermediaries which help allocate risks? Or, are the programs essentially wards of the state which encourage risk taking? In short, we aim to provide a simple, tractable way to think about how individual country policies affect the ability to exploit the potential offered by the larger market. Our conclusions are three. First, when correctly structured, mortgage default insurance can be expected to reduce non-price rationing at an actuarially fair price. It follows that to the extent that such programs lead to more complete markets without subsidies they are also more efficient than are the many schemes now used which rely on subsidies to address mortgage market incompleteness. Second, considerable care must be exercised in the development of such instruments. In a number of countries the pricing policies do not appear to be prudent. The program terms imply either that regulators often expect a much safer economic environment than seems likely, or, alternatively, the programs have been conveying either unbudgeted subsidies or incurring contingent liabilities. Such liabilities have already been realized in Sweden, and the current exposure in the Netherlands as well as with the restructured program in Sweden, appear to be large. Finally, we find that the potential geographical risk diversification provided by the single currency market can be expected to reduce mortgage rates and improve risk allocation. However, legal, fiscal, and regulatory issues with respect to credit risk limit the ability to exploit this larger market.     

论限售股司法拍卖的法律效果——以“公开承诺承继”为视角

资本市场不少股东在取得限售股份的同时作出公开承诺,如期限锁定承诺、业绩保障承诺、不占用资金承诺等。在限售股被质押融资的情况下,一旦债务逾期可能会被法院强制执行,强制执行后新取得股东是否需要承继这些公开承诺所附的权利负担,现行法律与监管规则不一致,各证券交易所的监管规则也有差异,导致实践中呈现"混乱"局面。从公开承诺的性质以及现行法律关于法院强制执行的权利负担承继原则来看,强制执行后公开承诺义务不应被新股东承继,但可能会造成法院强制执行成为原股东逃废债务的渠道,进而损害上市公司及其他投资者的合法权益,不利于建立健康的证券市场秩序环境。参考"买卖不破租赁"等案例,将公开承诺义务物权化,赋予其追溯效力,可能是解决这一问题的有效方案。     

论外商证券投资法律制度

外商对华证券投资包括投资于境外证券市场与境内证券市场的外资股与债券,其主流则为境内上市外资股(B股)与QFII投资普通股(A股)。外商证券投资的法律制度由投资者本国的法律监管与东道国法律监管两部分构成。前者监管主要针对证券发行数量、税收和利率的限制,后者监管主要集中在证券入市审批和证券交易管理,两者中应以东道国法律监管为主。我国对外商证券投资实行较为严格的监管制度,集中体现为证券市场开放中实行的QFII制度。法律监管的范围涉及市场准入审批、证券发行、证券交易、资产管理和外汇管理等方面。     

A Fresh Look at Stock Market Short‐termism

In this article, we develop a novel understanding of stock market short‐termism as a social phenomenon. Contrary to formerly popular academic belief, short‐termism is a problem that is highly unlikely to be structurally self‐correcting. An important driver of short‐termism typically elided within standard legal‐academic analyses is the informational centricity of modern stock markets, and resulting pressure on corporate managers to generate fresh ‘news’ indicative of perceived business ‘progress’. We highlight the growing enthusiasm of policy‐makers for a discriminatory ‘two‐tiered’ approach to public company investor relations. Accordingly, long‐term and committed investors are expected to be brought into the company's governance ‘inner circle’, while other investors are implicitly relegated to lowertier ‘outsider’ status. We argue that this supports a discriminatory approach to the allocation of voting entitlements in newly listing companies, enabling committed investors to develop cooperative and sustained governance relations with management unencumbered by ‘outside’ stock market pressures for short‐term financial‐performance outcomes.     

Interaction of the Russian Financial Markets

The different segments of he Russian financial markets are studied in the paper. The market crashed on 17 August 1998. We consider the stable period of the market between May 1996 and October 1997. We study the structure of interactions between the GKO market, stock market, currency market, currency futures market, GKO futures market, interbank credit market. We study the relations between the world financial market and the Russian financial market. It was shown that, in the period under consideration, different segments of the Russian financial market became more integrated and the market as whole became more stable and more integrated in the international capital flows.     

The Private Interests of Public Officials: Financial Regulation in the US Congress

Legislators' private financial holdings affect policy decisions. Due to financial self‐interest, we theorize that legislators whose personal investment portfolios include equities from firms affected by proposed policies vote for legislation that benefits those firms. We also theorize that legislators with greater personal exposure to equity investments support policies that benefit equities markets generally. We create a novel data set of legislators' personal stock investments and examine major congressional actions since the 1990s on financial deregulation and market intervention. US House members who own stocks in firms who benefit from financial deregulation vote for deregulation. House members with greater exposure to financial and automotive stocks support the financial and auto bailouts, respectively. General exposure to equities markets is also associated with support for key legislation boosting markets. The normative implications are significant, as legislators' private interests influence decisions in the public sphere.     

Financial Liberalization and Stock Price Behaviour in Asian Emerging Markets

This paper exhibits tests of the random walk hypothesis and market efficiency for seven Asian emerging markets as a result of the influence of financial market integration. Random walk properties of equity prices influence the return dynamic and determine the trade strategies of investors. To examine the stochastic properties of local index returns and to test the hypothesis that stock market prices follow a random walk, the single variance ratio tests of Lo and MacKinlay, as well as the multiple variance ratio test of Chow and Denning are employed. The multiple statistical comparison of variance ratios is based on the Studentized Maximum Modulus distribution with control of the joint-test’s size. The weak-form market efficiency is also tested directly, using a nonparametric runs test. These tests are particularly useful for investigating stock prices the returns of which are frequently not distributed normally. Documented evidence shows that, from the perspective of local investors, weekly stock prices in major Asian emerging markets do not follow a random walk in the pre-liberalization period. However, in the post-liberalization period the weak-form efficiency hypothesis is generally adopted at the 5% level except for the smaller stock markets of Indonesia and Thailand. These empirical findings suggest that financial integration affects the return predictability in such a way that domestic investors might not be able to develop trading strategies allowing them to earn abnormal returns.     

RULE FOR PREFERRED STOCK IN CHINA: OVERTHROW OF THE PRINCIPLE OF “EQUAL SHARES,EQUAL RIGHTS”? — FROM A COMPARATIVE PERSPECTIVE

The principle of “equal shares, equal rights” was established by the Company Law of 1993 of the People’s Republic of China. At the initial stage only issuance of common stocks was allowed and the issuance of preferred stocks was interpreted as prohibited. The Company Law of 2006 has changed the rigidity of provisions of the Company Law of 1993 and laid down the legal foundation for issuance of preferred stock. The Rule for Administration of the Pilot Project for Preferred Stocks released on March 21, 2014 by the China Securities Regulatory Commission started the issuance of the preferred stocks in the Chinese capital market. The establishment of the legal system for issuance of preferred stock in China is not the symbol of overthrowing the principle of “equal shares, equal rights,” but the expansion and development of the principle of “equal shares, equal rights” in a new era.     

Merger simulations with observed diversion ratios

One approach to merger simulations used in antitrust cases is to calibrate demand from market shares and a few additional parameters. When the products involved in the merger case are differentiated along several dimensions, actual diversion ratios may be very different from those calculated from market shares. This again may affect the predicted post-merger price effects. This article shows how merger simulation can be performed using observed diversion ratios. To illustrate the potential effects of this approach we use diversion ratios from a local grocery market in Norway. In this case diversions from the acquired to the acquiring stores were considerably smaller than suggested by market shares, and the predicted average price increase from the acquisition was 40% lower using this model rather than a model based upon market shares. This analysis also suggests that even a subset of observed diversion ratios may significantly change the prediction from a merger simulation based upon market shares.     

An empirical testing of informational efficiency in Bangladesh capital market

We investigate how efficiently the stock market participants incorporate the information contained in money supply changes into stock prices in an emerging economy like Bangladesh. Of particular interest is to test how the changes in monetary aggregates directly affect the stock prices through asset changes and indirectly through their effects on real economic activity. We have considered the monthly series of the real stock returns (P) and examine the relationship between stock returns and monetary aggregates from 1980 to 2008. We also include the exchange rate of US dollar against Bangladeshi Taka and industrial production index. The presence of cointegration between stock prices and monetary aggregates indicate long-run predictability of the Bangladesh stock market. The short-run dynamics between monetary aggregates and real stock return, relied on theoretically motivated long-run restrictions, are analyzed using an empirical structural VAR model. The dynamic response of the real stock returns to changes in macroeconomic variables (such as broad money supply, exchange rates), particularly its lagged responses to real economic activity generates inefficiency in the Dhaka Stock Exchange. The findings of this article indicate that informational inefficiency exists in the stock market of Bangladesh due to the presence of unidirectional causality. To be efficient, the infrastructure of the SEC should be modernized, revaluation of the net asset value of the companies should be audited by the affiliated firms of the SEC, demutualization should be done as early as possible, private placement, issue of preference share and book building methods must be under rule based. Insider trading should be strictly prohibited.     

China��s exports in information communication technology and its impact on Asian countries

This paper analyzes the export growth of China??s information communication technology (ICT) products in two major markets Japan and the US from 1995 to 2008 and its competition with six East Asian countries: Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, Singapore and Korea. The analysis shows that China has emerged as the largest single supplier of ICT products to both markets. By 2008, China??s exports accounted for 44 and 38% of total Japanese and the US ICT imports respectively. On the other hand, market shares of the six East Asian countries either remained stagnant or decreased substantially. The analysis by destination markets and by product categories indicates that, there exist significant negative correlations between market shares of China and that of the six East Asian countries, implying that the rapid expansion of China??s ICT exports crowded out exports of its East Asian competitors.     

创业板上市公司高管持股减持的法律困境与解决对策

创业板上市公司高管持股减持现象,成为我国目前证券市场的焦点。人们对创业板上市公司高管持股减持的规定存有异议,尤其对较多高管通过辞职离职等规定的漏洞,转让所持股份获利,深表不满,形象地将创业板誉为"造福板"、"摘桃板"等。为此,可通过修订我国《公司法》、《证券法》等有关条款,重新规制创业板上市公司高管持股延长禁售期、禁售情形,规范上市公司高管辞职离职持股解禁制度,明确创业板上市公司高管社会责任等。