Solving south Africa's Chinese puzzle: Democratic foreign policy making and the ‘two chinas’ question

When President Nelson Mandela abruptly announced on 27 November 1996 that South Africa would no longer recognise the Republic of China but would open official diplomatic relations with the People's Republic of China in its stead, he caught the world by surprise. In what was a fittingly bizarre end to a situation that continued to defy all expectations, the post‐apartheid government made its first significant foreign policy decision. The remarkable level of public debate, the inter‐departmental conflicts, the role of interest groups and party politics which accompanied the decision to switch recognition gave the South African government and the public as a whole its first exposure to the vagaries of conducting foreign policy in a democracy.

This article will examine the decision to recognise the People's Republic of China by investigating the historical relationship between the South African state, non‐state actors and their Chinese counterparts, the debate itself and the role of interest groups ‐ both within and outside the formal policy making process ‐ in seeking to influence the decision and analysing the dynamics of the recognition decision. In so doing, it hopes to shed some light on the policy decision making process in the new democratic South Africa.     

The foreign policy of the Zuma government: pursuing the ‘national interest’?

It was after much anticipation that members of the new Jacob Zuma foreign policy executive announced that, for the duration of their term, South Africa's foreign policy would be based on the doctrine of advancing ‘the national interest’, conceptualised simply as the ‘most vital needs’ of the country. However, almost two years since taking control of the levers of policy and political power, the South African government has yet to spell out in detail what constituted the national interest or how such interest would be pursued. In spite of this lacuna, senior members of the new foreign policy inner-elite continue to proclaim the national interest, and proceed to spell out grander foreign policy goals that they would pursue under the banner of a ‘new’ developmental agenda. These include consolidating the African agenda; deepening South–South cooperation; expanding South–North relations; strengthening foreign political and economic ties generally; and participating in a global system of governance. To date, this proclamation that the national interest will be the beam that will guide foreign policy has remained little more than a statement of intent and much conjecture. The challenge is to move beyond rhetoric and intentions and to define the national interest and to articulate a coherent foreign policy going forward. This will require concrete proposals on the basis of thorough-going domestic–foreign policy linkages.     

Russia's “turn to the east”: a study in policy making

Russia's recent reorientation “to the East” has gained increased urgency given events in Ukraine. Here the policymaking process surrounding the “turn to the East” is examined. The focus is on the economic dimension – the economic development of the Russian Far East and engagement with the Asia-Pacific region – rather than geostrategic and security issues. Policymaking is evaluated in terms of general approach and process, with the implications of the evaluation for Russian policymaking more generally then being explored. “Turn to the East” policymaking exhibits a strong commitment to strategic planning that is characteristic of Putin, and which in this case struggles not only with process issues but also with contradictions within the strategy and the challenging realities of the region. Regarding process, a far more institutionalized policy process than the currently dominant personalist view would lead us to expect is found, with relevant bureaucratic and non-state actors well represented in an elaborate and relatively formal process. However a considerable weakening of sign-off procedures is noted, which has lead to policy inconsistency and indeed “policy irresponsibility” among participants. The author attributes the weakening of sign-off procedures to Putin's frustration with the gridlock tendencies of strict sign-off regimes, rather than a desire to create a personalist regime of hands-on management. This suggests that improvement of the Russian policy process requires structural and procedural change, rather than simply leadership change.     

The sirens of power and German foreign policy: Who is listening?

The unification of Germany has, unsurprisingly, provoked much speculation as to the future foreign policy of the country. Two images ‐ Germany as Gulliver and Germany as Ulysses ‐ have dominated the debate, each coming in a popular and an academic version. This article analyses German foreign policy behaviour and discourse in order to determine which one is more accurate. As to behaviour, the article examines two examples from the core sector of national security policy as well as how Germany's relations developed with France, the United States, Russia and Poland. As to discourse, five ‘schools of thought’ in the current debate about German foreign policy are related to a set of five grand strategies that are suggested either in the literature or in public debate. In both words and deeds the analysis shows that united Germany continues to stick to the course of multilateralism and integration.     

Relations with North Africa: a new priority in Portuguese bilateral foreign policy?

Portugal has remained quite distant from coastal North African states for many centuries. Having recently emerged as a prominent player across North Africa, Portugal’s current relationship with the Maghreb countries is unprecedented in its history. Lisbon has invested in building the Maghreb axis as a ‘new priority’ in the architecture of Portugal’s bilateral foreign policy. This policy already took off, and is now beyond the rhetorical plan, where it stood for many years. Portugal and its partner countries across the Mediterranean have reiterated their willingness to keep up with the positive momentum, especially from the past 10 years, deepening bilateral political dialogue and bolstering trade relations. This article puts Portuguese relations with North Africa into context and offers an up-to-date analysis on recent (and ongoing) developments in Luso?Maghreb relations.     

Between national and European foreign policy: the role of Latvia and Romania in the EU’s policy towards Central Asia

This article explores whether and to what extent new member states of the European Union (EU) seek to pursue their national foreign policy goals towards Central Asia through the EU rather than bilaterally. To do so, it focuses on Latvia and Romania. While the article finds evidence of Romanian attempts to project its interests in the region onto the EU level, Latvia appears to rely more extensively on the EU level to pursue its goals towards Central Asia. Using insights from the literature on Europeanization of national foreign policy, the article explains this finding with reference to four variables that determine whether a member state will seek to upload its national foreign policy preferences onto the EU level, namely the perceived salience of the policy goals, the extent to which member states can carve out a niche, their perceived capabilities and the level of Europeanization of their national foreign policies.     

Domestic politics of Chinese foreign policy: where will Xi Jinping bring China?

ABSTRACT

Xi Jinping has concentrated his power since he acceded to the Chinese presidency. Where will Xi bring China? In this review essay I discuss four single-authored books – one in English and three in Japanese – to explore security implications of Xi’s reform and foreign policies. In her recent book, Elizabeth Economy is critical of Xi, arguing that he is turning away from Deng Xiaoping’s reform and internationalist policies. The three Japanese China specialists concur, and further highlight the interconnectedness of domestic politics and international relations. In sum, the four books show that Xi has struggled to commit to the state-owned enterprise reform and to cooperative foreign policy due to Chinese domestic politics, and as a result, has threatened regional security in the Asia-Pacific.     

The French foreign policy U-turn in the Arab Spring – the case of Tunisia

As for many, the Arab uprisings of 2010–11 came as a surprise for France. After initial inactivity, followed by last minute support of the Tunisian regime, President Sarkozy took a U-turn by spearheading the military intervention in Libya and both Sarkozy and his successor Hollande announced a re-launch in the Franco-Tunisian relations. Starting from the assumption that France’s drastic foreign policy changes cannot be sufficiently explained by presidential change, we draw upon social-constructivist discourse-bound identity theory and provide a model for discursive legitimations of foreign policy changes. When the “permissive consensus” between the three discursive formations of the French foreign policy identity breaks up, drastic foreign policy turns may occur. By analysing the French policy actions and rhetoric towards Tunisia between 2007 and 2015, we show, however, that the sudden change tends to be rather ephemeral and that French foreign policy seems to be gradually returning to its pre-revolution approach.     

More women in the Tanzanian legislature: Do numbers matter?

This study examines the changes that followed the rise in the number of female parliamentarians in the Tanzanian legislature and the contextual factors undermining the potential power of the increased number of female MPs. As found in a number of other countries, with more women in parliament, women's interests, concerns and perspective have been better incorporated into parliamentary debates and policy-making in Tanzania. However, the increase in female parliamentary representation challenges the existence of the special-seat system that helped women reach a large minority. The effectiveness of female MPs in Tanzania will improve only with a stronger legislature and a sturdier opposition. If the special-seat system is to remain, a new selection mechanism that allows direct cross-party competition among special-seat candidates should be considered to bring better qualified women into parliament.     

Deliberative democracy and the politics of traditional leadership in South Africa: A case of despotic domination or democratic deliberation?

A heated debate developed in South Africa as to the meaning of ‘deliberative democracy’. This debate is fanned by the claims of ‘traditional leaders’ that their ways of village-level deliberation and consensus-oriented decision-making are not only a superior process for the African continent as it evolves from pre-colonial tradition, but that it represents a form of democracy that is more authentic than the Western version. Proponents suggest that traditional ways of deliberation are making a come-back because imported Western models of democracy that focus on the state and state institutions miss the fact that in African societies state institutions are often seen as illegitimate or simply absent from people's daily lives. In other words, traditional leadership structures are more appropriate to African contexts than their Western rivals. Critics suggest that traditional leaders, far from being authentic democrats, are power-hungry patriarchs and authoritarians attempting to both re-invent their political, social and economic power (frequently acquired under colonial and apartheid rule) and re-assert their control over local-level resources at the expense of the larger community. In this view, the concept of deliberative democracy is being misused as a legitimating device for a politics of patriarchy and hierarchy, which is the opposite of the meaning of the term in the European and US sense. This article attempts to contextualise this debate and show how the efforts by traditional leaders to capture an intermediary position between rural populations and the state is fraught with conflicts and contradictions when it comes to forming a democratic state and society in post-apartheid South Africa.     

The foreign policy of Uzbekistan: sources,objectives and outcomes: 1991–2009

Since 1991 the super-presidential regime of Islam Karimov in Uzbekistan has successfully defended the country's new independence and his authoritarian rule by cleverly enlisting the aid of outside powers such as Russia, China and the USA. With the means afforded by global export of its staple commodities, the regime has preserved stability by managing occasional conflicts with its neighbours, repressing dissenters when necessary, promulgating an ideology of multi-nationalism, and ample spending on health and educational services, as well as on government employees. The current economic crisis has meant the return of many Uzbeks from elsewhere in Asia, but the regime is trying to offset discontent with more spending.     

Assessing public opinion’s influence on foreign policy: the case of China’s assertive maritime behavior

ABSTRACT

English-language analysis of Chinese foreign policy has often cited nationalist public opinion as a key driver of Beijing’s recent assertive maritime conduct. Yet these important conjectures have not been systematically tested. How can we know whether public opinion has been driving an authoritarian state’s foreign policy? What are some cases in which concern about popular nationalism may have influenced Beijing’s behavior in disputed maritime spaces? To answer these questions, this article constructs a methodological framework for assessing the likely impact of public opinion on particular instances of state action. Applying this to five cases typical of China’s on-water policy in the South and East China Seas since 2007 indicates that popular nationalism has had little to do with China’s assertive turn on its maritime periphery.     

South Africa’s foreign policy aspirations and the National Development Plan (NDP 2030): the role of soft power

Chapter 7 of the NDP 2030 articulates a foreign policy vision for South Africa over two decades. While the NDP acknowledges the place of ‘soft power’ in realising this vision, it remains doubtful whether South Africa will indeed take advantage of the enormous gains offered by soft power as a foreign policy lever. This paper examines the role of soft power in achieving the foreign policy mandates prescribed in the Plan. It argues that, like other regional powers such as China, South Africa needs to pay more attention to its soft power attributes if it is to fast-track the successful implementation of its foreign policy ambitions for 2030. We conclude that sustaining South Africa’s rising position and influence in the international system and in Africa, will largely depend on its ability to consciously adjust its foreign policy trajectories – in the long term – in tandem with its soft power resources and competences.     

At least democracy was not the issue: Basque parliamentarians during the making of the First Spanish Republic, 1873–74

The history of the European states in the nineteenth century relates to how processes of ‘parliamentarization’ took place that were not always accompanied by processes of ‘democratization’. This leads us to the following question: Was democracy their goal? A good example can be found in the political development of Spain from the 1868 revolution to 1874, a period that has been called the ‘Democratic Sexennium’. This revolution led Spain into a process that involved an attempt at democratization which culminated in the proclamation of the First Republic. The First Spanish Republic was based on a democratic parliament and constitution. In this article a prosopographic study is conducted of a specific group of parliamentarians – those from the Basque Country – who took part in the debates during the First Republic. The results of this study serve as a typical example of the participation of parliamentarians in democratization processes in the nineteenth century and they show the relationship between discourse and parliamentary practice in that period. Prosopographic analysis and the use of thematic prosopography enable us to ascertain the profile of those democratically elected parliamentarians and the issues that most concerned them. Additionally, the debate that emerged on the limits of democracy in wartime is highlighted, owing to the fact that Spain was immersed in a civil war during this period and the Spanish Parliament had to take decisions and act in adverse circumstances.     

The rise of a hesitant EU host? Examining the Greek migrant integration policy and its transformation during the crisis

Greece lately, as a result of the crisis, has been transformed from a migrant receiving (host) country to a simultaneously migrant sending and receiving one. At the same time, processes of migrant de-integration from the economy and society have been manifesting too. This paper attempts to draw light on Greek migrant integration policy, which through the years has been characterized by a contradiction between policy narratives and concrete actions on the ground. More specifically, this paper brings to the fore a policy change that occurred during the period 2012–2015 and possibly continues up to now. According to this policy shift, special emphasis was put on the acquisition of the European long-term resident status from the part of already settled migrants as a passport to their intra-European mobility. Politically speaking, such developments were heralded as a win–win situation for both migrants, but also, Greece as a host country. Nevertheless, this rise of a hesitant EU host, who turned its integration policy into a managing migration endeavour, might be indicative of broader tendencies and trends within an expanded EU migratory landscape that includes both migration, but lately most importantly, asylum too.     

Ethnocultural nationalism and Turkey’s non-Muslim minorities during the early republican period

This article analyses the Turkish nationalist elite’s economic and demographic Turkification policies toward the non-Muslim minorities in the 1920s and 1930s, and argues that the nationalist elite pursued ethnocultural nationalism toward the country’s non-Muslim citizens, while applying civic-territorial nationalism toward Muslim Turks. The article maintains that the nationalist elite, like the Young Turk regime, aimed at forming a national Turkish Muslim businessmen class at the expense of the non-Muslim minorities by pursuing economic and demographic Turkification policies.     

Democratization in the Middle East and North Africa: A More Ambidextrous Process?

Democratization is always an ambidextrous process. On the one hand, it triggers a universalistic set of norms, events, processes and symbols. On the other hand, democratization involves a much more particularistic set of ‘realistic’ adaptations to the structures and circumstances of individual countries. In analysing the structures and conjunctures of countries in the Arab World during the past decades, scholars looked at them from the perspective of persistent authoritarianism. This essay exploits democratization theory – as well as its converse ? by analysing the universalistic set of events, processes and symbols of democratization elsewhere in the world, and then identifying the particularistic characteristics of timing, location and coincidence that seem likely to affect the political outcome of regime change in the countries affected by recent popular uprisings in the Arab World.     

The Italian Five Star Movement during the Crisis: Towards Normalisation?

Abstract

The Movimento Cinque Stelle (M5S) represents the most significant occurrence in Italian party politics during the economic crisis that commenced in 2008. Founded in 2005, the party caused a major upset at the 2013 national elections, with a subsequent major impact on the Italian party system, which is analysed along four dimensions: amount of change; number of relevant competitors; alteration of the political space; and degree of nationalisation. The sudden electoral success, in turn, presented the party with a number of challenges that forced it to adapt its organisational nature. Moreover, the anti-establishment nature of the M5S is questioned by its activities in the legislative arena. As with other outsider parties, this poses the dilemma of being part of the establishment while criticising it. The M5S has thus been forced to redefine its main goals and style of communication in order to adapt to the new institutional environment without losing the palingenetic aspiration of its original message.