How Adenauer Lost Power: Understanding Leadership Rivalry and Succession Conflict in Political Parties

In this article, we reconstruct and interpret the Adenauer–Erhard leadership rivalry in the CDU. This leadership struggle culminated in Erhard replacing Adenauer in 1963 and Adenauer's continued ‘guerrilla’ warfare against Erhard's leadership, which was one of the contributing factors to the brevity of Erhard's tenure. The case is of intrinsic historical interest but also provides a muster for recent and ongoing leadership succession predicaments in governing parties in Germany and elsewhere. The article presents a conceptual framework of party leadership succession, and zooms in on the (mis)match between the tactical choices made by the incumbent leader and key succession candidates as a key factor explaining the nature and impact of successions. The framework is then applied to the case, and the implications of the findings are placed in a broader comparative context.     

Introduction: Conflict in Cambodia, 1945-2002

Since the advent of Deng Xiaoping's policies of reform and opening in the late 1970s, most observers have agreed that China is likely to recover its rightful place in the world as a great power in the twenty-first century. Disagreements have arisen principally over whether China will join the world as a normal nation state or will instead seek to restore its traditional hegemony in East Asia and even attempt to extend that predominance to the entire world. This article challenges both of these positions by examining the uses of history –and the way in which the past uses those who use it – in several Chinese books published at the turn of the century and in a set of essays critiquing those books. The authors argue that China is likely to eschew both the national imperialism characteristic of Western superpowers and Japan and the over-expansion attempted by earlier Chinese states such as the Qin and the Yuan. Instead China is likely to pursue the minimal goal of avoiding political disunion and cultural crisis similar to its policies in earlier ages and the maximal goal of restoring political unity and cultural centrality associated with such earlier polities as the Zhou, Han, Tang, Ming, and Qing.     

属灵的冲突来自属物的冲突--东南亚宗教冲突初探

宗教问题和民族问题将是21世纪困扰人类社会最复杂的问题,东南亚是一个多宗教的地区,婆罗门教、佛教、伊斯兰教、天主教都曾经在东南亚盛行一时,东南亚国家在独立以后,一些国家内部的宗教冲突一直连续不断,特别是20世纪60、70年代泰国南部地区穆斯林和佛教徒之间的冲突;70、80年代菲律宾南部的穆斯林和天主教徒之间的冲突和90年代末印度尼西亚马鲁古群岛穆斯林和基督教徒之间的冲突,导致社会的激烈动荡,带来了经济、文化等方面的重大损失.本文通过分析60年代到90年代在东南亚地区发生的不同宗教教徒之间的冲突,阐释产生冲突的历史渊源,并从制度的角度观察精神世界的冲突.笔者认为属于精神层面的宗教冲突在很大程度上来自一些制度层面的失误.因此,解决宗教冲突的关键并不是单纯地针对精神层面的因素,解决宗教冲突的外部原因比解决宗教的内部原因更为重要.     

Understanding Israel's Long Conflict in Lebanon: The Search for an Alternative Approach to Security During the Peace Process

The Arab‐Israeli peace process pointed to a resolution of the Middle East's most persistent conflict, as the Rabin and Peres governments developed a sensitivity to the Arab‐Israeli ‘security dilemma’, but by 1996 the process was deadlocked. Events stalled progress, but so did ingrained attitudes that continued to shape policy that was inconsistent with the peace process. The following article explains some of the Realist norms and values at the root of security thinking in Israel, and charts their inertia in Israeli policy during the peace process, focusing on its approach to Lebanon. The article gives an insight into why Rabin and his successors struggled to find an alternative policy towards Lebanon, and how this prolonged the Arab‐Israeli conflict. The efforts of the Netanyahu and Barak governments to find a solution to the policy problem of Lebanon are outlined.     

俄格冲突:地缘政治框架下的分析

2008年8月爆发的俄格冲突是相关各方地缘政治博弈背景下的产物,它反映了俄罗斯与格鲁吉亚、俄罗斯与美国以及欧亚地区三个层次的地缘政治冲突的现实.冲突也相应地在三个层次上产生了反映地缘政治冲突的力量格局和平衡的现实结果.俄格冲突也在地缘政治层面对今后国际局势产生了重要影响,其中包括对当前美国主导的国际秩序的冲击,对北约未来发展的冲击以及对国际能源局势的冲击.     

Reflections on the Chechen Conflict: Geopolitics,Timing and Transformations

The Chechen Conflict is the most fatal and protracted conflict in the post-Soviet space. While it is the most discussed conflict there, it is also the least understood. Many contradicting accounts of it exist, and still many questions remain unanswered. One reason is that the nature of this conflict has changed over time. Unlike what many - particularly Western - analysts think, it is not a religious conflict. It began as an ethno-nationalist separatist conflict but only later was it infiltrated by extremist Salafis/Wahhabis. At this moment a war is going on between the local Chechen and the central Russian governments against the Salafi/Wahhabi Emirate of the Caucasus. Chechnya is the only autonomous region in Russia in which a separatist movement had been successful. The possible reasons are the peculiarities of the Caucasus; especially its mosaic type of ethnogeographic configuration and the traumatic past of many of its peoples. Another important factor in the explanation of such a separatist conflict in Chechnya - and nowhere else in the North Caucasus - is the fact that only in Chechnya has a titular minority enjoyed a dominant demographic position. This paper also discusses issues such as the nature of Islam in Chechnya and the Russian geopolitical codes.     

网络空间的中美关系:竞争、冲突与合作

在中美关系各领域,网络空间问题在极短时间具有了极其重要的意义。网络空间不仅对传统中美关系形成了冲击,而且还引发了相应的博弈与竞争,如网络空间治理权之争、网络战略优势竞争,以及与之相随的网络技术优势的夺取、网络军备竞赛和网络话语权竞争等。网络事务管理的主权性与网络空间运行的开放性之间的矛盾构成中美关系网络冲突的根源。网络空间的全球性及世界各国所面临的网络信息安全等共同威胁,促成了中美关系在网络空间的合作,如在网络治理的国际制度建设、应对网络犯罪、技术合作、网络冲突控制等方面。避免网络空间的中美关系走向安全困境,需要相对稳定的实践。对网络监管和网络主权的认同、建立中美网络空间的战略互信是实践的重要方面。     

Conflict Management and Israeli-Palestinian Conflict: The Importance of Capturing the "right Moment"

Professor Jacob Bercovitch of the University of Canterbury in Christchurch, New Zealand, and S. Ayse Kadayifci from the American University in Washington D.C., argue that the current conflict between the Israelis and Palestinians can be best understood as an example of a complex intractable conflict. Such conflicts are usually managed through the intervention of mediators at the "right moment," otherwise they risk failure and further conflict escalation. In contrast to the literature on "ripe moments," the authors argue that it is possible to have more then one right moment in the life cycle of a conflict, which can even be created by mediators. In the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, there was such a moment in 1993, which was subsequently lost. In the following article, the authors analyze the Oslo Process from this "ripe moment" perspective, and suggest an integrated third party approach to create a perception amongst the parties involved that a moment of opportunity is at hand.     

The Norwich elections of 1794, 1796 and 1802: Conflict and consensus

SUMMARY

Daniel O'Connell (Cahersiveen 1775–Genoa 1847), Irish politician and patriot, fought for Catholic emancipation, and to repeal the penal laws discriminating Irish Catholics and the 1800 Act of Union between Great Britain and Ireland (effective from 1 January 1801). Believing firmly in non-violence, he defended the representation of Irish Catholics in parliament as the most appropriate instrument to support their rights. His thoughts and actions were widespread and known in Italy and Europe while some Catholics were arguing about a possible reconciliation between religion and freedom and on the resulting openness to the principles of democracy and to the problem of representation. The Theatine Gioacchino Ventura (1792–1861) from Palermo, one of the leaders of the Sicilian revolution of 1848, was a great admirer of O'Connell, so much so that after his death he delivered a funeral eulogy at Sant'Andrea della Valle Church in Rome. Ventura, recognized among the precursors of the current liberal and democratic Italian Catholic movement, shared the causes embraced by O'Connell and he considered him to be the first mediator between Church and modern society. He believed that O'Connell was a champion of liberalism who had succeeded in combining nationalistic reason with freedom, the right to vote and the eligibility of Catholics. Following Ventura, Luigi Sturzo (1871–1959), another member of the Italian Catholic movement and founder of the first Catholic party (PPI), was inspired by the political experience of O'Connell, considering him to be the forerunner of constitutional Catholics on the continent. Sturzo worked for the inclusion of Catholics in the state political structures, contributing to the realization of full democracy.     

The Iran-Israel Conflict: An Ultra-Ideological Explanation

Iran's enmity with Israel is ideological in the first place and strategic in the second. Iran intends through anti-Israel actions and messaging to internally mobilize its populace and, externally, to claim the leadership of the Muslim world and strike a balance against a regional nuclear power. This article uses a critique based on constructivism and realism to reveal how Iran's confrontation with Israel has evolved historically from “identity-ideological” to “politico-strategic.” I argue that Iran's adoption of this approach without taking its internal and external capacities into consideration has ironically bolstered the Israeli far right, increased global sympathies for Israel, escalated Iranophobia, aligned conservative Arab states with Israel, and marginalized the issue of Palestine. To preserve its national interests and regional security, Iran needs to overcome this politico-historical stage and replace conflict with competition.     

国际冲突调停的理论与方法争鸣——评《调停国际危机》、《国际冲突调停》与《国际调停互动》

调停作为一种第三方干预冲突方式,近年来在国际冲突管理和解决中发挥着越来越重要的作用。传统的调停研究路径主要关注国家行为体的调停活动。然而,随着冷战的结束以及非国家行为体如联合国等在国际冲突调停中的作用的不断加强,传统的国家中心主义路径在调停研究中受到了极大的挑战,并开始逐渐失去其主导地位。在这些新的路径引导下,产生了一大批新的经验研究成果。本文结合三部代表国际冲突调停研究新方法的最新著作,围绕调停的发生、过程和效果三个层面,比较系统地梳理了当前学界关于国际调停的最新研究成果,展示了他们在理论与方法上的争鸣。最后,本文评估了这些研究的主要贡献和不足之处,并指出了有待继续拓展的一些议题。