SADC and the GCC: Shared regional challenges and potential links

This article assesses the prospects for a clearly articulated economic diplomacy approach in South Africa's foreign policy. It argues that while South Africa's foreign policy has been to a considerable extent normatively grounded, it has failed to develop a coherent economic diplomacy that is based on focused and distinctly expressed priorities. This is a crucial gap that limits the country's ability to respond to regional and global changes, in particular those posed by emerging powers. The article identifies a number of gaps in South Africa's foreign policy approach and highlights its oblivion to global developments and geopolitical dynamics in the African continent. It sets out possible policy outlines for developing a clearer and stronger economic diplomacy. The building blocks for such an approach include the identification of strategic foreign policy priorities; greater institutional co-operation among agencies dealing with economic and foreign policy development; synergies between corporate strategies and government's foreign policy objectives; and the need for South Africa to develop a stronger leadership ambition in the African continent, both to contribute to Africa's development and to pursue its own economic interests. This ambition will require awareness of South Africa's own limitations, thus focusing the better part of its foreign policy on a limited set of countries that match strategic priorities.     

Uzbekistan between the great powers: a balancing act or a multi-vectorial approach?

The expulsion of US forces from the Karshi-Khanabad airbase in November 2005 and the subsequent rapprochement between Uzbekistan and Russia represents one of the most dramatic diplomatic turnabouts in Uzbek foreign policy. This article analyses the theoretical discourses surrounding the alignment behaviour of Uzbekistan. It posits that traditional alignment theories, such as balance of power and balance of threat, are inadequate in their explanations of Uzbek foreign policy due to the lack of attention paid to the nature of the regime and the internal politics of the country. It also dismisses previous attempts at characterizing Uzbekistan's alignment behaviour as ‘omnibalancing’ as inadequate and incomplete. This article argues that Uzbekistan's foreign policy is based on a multi-vectorial approach, which is designed to maximize the benefits that a particular alliance may offer Uzbekistan. A variety of sources have been consulted in the formulation of this work, from official Uzbek foreign policy statements to secondary sources, in both English and Russian.     

Extremists are extremely extreme

Abstract

China's foreign policy during the Cultural Revolution is usually treated as a non-event. Melvin Gurtov in his careful and extremely useful chronological account of China's foreign policy at this time (RAND, RM-5934-PR) still deems it “an aberrant episode” (VII, 83). He describes it as the manifestation of a power struggle between extreme young zealots and implacable older powerholders. “Substantive policy views” are almost beside the point (76). Far Eastern Economic Review (1968 Year Book) also characterizes Cultural Revolution foreign policy as one of “excesses” and “‘extreme’ behavior,” giving anti-foreignism as its content. Anti-foreignism is seen as a deeply felt belief that an attempt to borrow from foreigners has resulted in “manipulation and exploitation” by foreigners. Yung Ho, writing for the Union Research Institue's (URI) Communist China 1967, finds the essence of Mao's thought to be opposition to “anything foreign,” and China's attempt at “propagating Mao-Tse-tung's thought abroad” to be an aggressive policy “even worse than Hitler's rule,” one which inevitably produced setbacks which further isolate China (326–327).     

Japan's Foreign Policy beyond Short-term Politics

In August 2009, the Liberal-Democratic Party (LDP), which had been in power since 1955, lost the general elections to a recently-formed party, the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ). The LDP's foreign policy had placed emphasis on relations with the US, and on international cooperation and relations with Asia. The LDP's foreign and defense policy lacked a long term vision; it was incremental, pragmatic and could be described as reactive or passive. An examination of the DPJ's foreign policy, three years after its coming to power, reveals that it has accepted part of the LDP's inheritance. The Japan-US Alliance was reasserted as pivotal to Japan's security. Cooperation with Asia has not given birth to a new regional structure or to new institutional mechanisms, and dialogue with China has not improved; incrementalism is still preferred in the field of defense. Nonetheless, the fact that Japan's opposition is now a catch-all party at the center of the political scene changes the framework of foreign and defense policy-making considerably. Therefore, the likelihood of interpartite cooperation over foreign and security policy is theoretically conceivable. Nonetheless, political and institutional constraints to change in the field remain.     

Notes on contributors

In the Kosovo crisis, Germany for the first time since 1955 joined NATO military combat operations in a major way. While this has often been interpreted as a fundamental major departure ('normalisation') in Germany's post‐war foreign policy, this article argues that Germany's willingness to contemplate joining a NATO war even without a mandate by the UN Security Council represents an evolution, rather than a fundamental change in Germany's foreign policy orientation. This evolution can be explained best as a logical and consistent response of Germany's foreign policy identity which reconciled, through modification, its traditional post war foreign policy identity as a ‘civilian power’ to a radically different security environment.     

South African foreign policy in the post-Mbeki period

President Thabo Mbeki's resignation in September 2008 six months before the expected end of his term was triggered by the recall issued by the ANC National Executive Committee. It is highly unlikely that any major changes in foreign policy will be made by the caretaker government of President Kgalema Motlanthe before the 2009 elections. However, the significant changes in the domestic political environment signal the start of a new era in South Africa's transformation — what might be called the ‘post post-apartheid period’. This paper explores what those changes might entail, especially in the realm of foreign policy. After reflecting on the legacy of Mbeki's foreign policy, the paper considers the potential implications of the relevant resolutions agreed at the December 2007 ANC National Conference in Polokwane. Constraints on South African foreign policy towards the African continent are considered, especially with regard to perception versus reality of its economic and political hegemony as well as its complex identity as a nation. In light of this analysis and the inevitable impact of the current global economic crisis, the paper concludes with a series of recommendations for a new vision and agenda for South Africa's foreign policy under the government to be elected in 2009.     

Change and continuity in post-unification German foreign policy

Ten years after unification, Germany still maintains its post-Second World War foreign policy course based on transatlantic multilateralism and European integration despite changes in Germany's international and domestic contexts. This study argues that neither realist nor institutionalist explanations can explain the post-unification pattern of German foreign policy. Instead, continuity and change in this policy can be understood best through a role-theoretical approach based on the civilian power idealtype. Two causal pathways are developed which account for continuity in foreign policy orientation (goals) and strategies while explaining change in the choice of foreign policy instruments. First, the apparent success of Germany's traditional foreign policy role concept during and after unification helped to reify a broad foreign policy consensus around the goals and strategies of an ideal-type civilian power. Second, major foreign policy crises, such as the Yugoslavian wars, stirred the long held hierarchy between the core values of reticence vis-à-vis the use of force (never again German militarism) and the special German responsibility to prevent genocide (never again Auschwitz). The interaction between domestic and foreign expectations provides a promising source for explaining change and continuity in Germany's foreign policy role concept and behaviour.     

The debate over south Africa's foreign policy

South Africa is no exception to the rule that there tends to be continuity in a state's foreign policy even in the event of far‐reaching domestic political change. But given the new South Africa's debt to a global human rights campaign, the emphasis on ‘staking out the moral high ground’ in the rhetoric of the country's new decision‐makers and of commentators is not surprising. The article discusses the creative tension between the claims of morality and the constraints of realpolitik in the debate on the formulation of the new South Africa's foreign policy. It identifies both differences and overlaps in the approaches of realists and radicals to the conduct of the country's foreign policy.     

Kenya's foreign policy in context (1963–2015)

Kenya matters regionally and globally. It is the economic powerhouse of East Africa and a long-standing hub for multilateral diplomacy; its positioning in a turbulent region has fashioned its profile as an anchor state in African peace and security. Until recently, Kenya's foreign policy orientation has situated it as a benign regional leader, but pressing developments in the regional and international environments have edged it towards a more assertive foreign policy position. This study constitutes a multilevel review of Kenya's foreign policy in the period 1963–2015, beginning with Jomo Kenyatta through to the current president, Uhuru Kenyatta. After evaluating contexts pertinent to the analysis of Kenya’s foreign policy, the fundamental principles, objectives and pillars of the current foreign policy are unpacked.     

The rise and fall of conservative reform in the United States: George W. Bush and the transformation of the Reagan legacy

Americans often remark that 9/11 changed their nation forever. Conservatives rarely note, however, that the attacks also changed the effort at conservative reform that began with the election of Ronald Reagan in 1980. Reagan preached strength in foreign policy but rarely used force to fight the Cold War. On the home front, Reagan pursued neo-liberalism within the limits of political prudence, under the influence of neo-conservative ideology among other factors. Reagan's Republican successor George W. Bush has used force in pursuit of democratic nation-building while expanding the American welfare state at a pace not seen since the 1960s. If elected, Bush's opponent, Senator John Kerry, might face a Republican Congress and thus gridlock on domestic policy. Kerry also favors a more realistic stance for the nation in foreign affairs. Ironically, the revival of the Reagan legacy of conservative reform may hinge on the defeat of the Republican incumbent, a defeat that could open the possibility of reclaiming Reagan's party for the cause of limited government and individual liberty.     

Decolonising Australia's International Relations? A Critical Introduction

Australia's international relations (IR) discipline has a deep colonial history, but has never been through a conscious process of decolonisation. Although discussions of decolonising IR have taken place elsewhere, the discussion in Australia is in its infancy. This collection examines the possibilities for decolonising Australia's IR in the present moment, looking at its teaching practice, its research, its styles of analysis, and its relationship with Australian foreign policy. We consider what is particular to Australia's settler colonial context, what is achievable, and what is not. The collection also seeks to develop a new style of anti-colonial foreign policy analysis in Australia, looking at the relationship between colonisation, settlement, and foreign policy. In this introduction, we first look over debates on decolonisation elsewhere in the field. We then examine the historical background of Australia's IR discipline, and look at Australian Indigenous diplomacy, to consider what is specific to Australia's context. We conclude by looking over the contributions of the papers in this collection, and consider what a decolonised Australian IR might look like. Ultimately, we argue that any process of decolonisation will be extremely difficult, and that decolonisation in Australian IR should be perceived as an ongoing struggle, rather than an endpoint in itself.     

Causes of the Collapse of the USSR

The paper studies Russia's Ukraine policy since the Orange Revolution. Russia's policy toward its western neighbor has evolved from unhappy relations with Victor Yushchenko to rapprochement with Victor Yanukovich and then confrontation over the revolutionary power change in Kiev in February 2014. The paper argues that Vladimir Putin's actions following February revolution in Kiev demonstrate both change and continuity in Russia's foreign policy. Although these actions constituted a major escalation, relative to Russia's previous behavior toward Ukraine, the escalation of relations with Kiev also reflected a broader policy pattern of Russia's assertive relations with the Western nations adopted by the Kremlin since the mid-2000s. What made Russia's conflict with Ukraine possible, even inevitable, was the West's lack of recognition for Russia's values and interests in Eurasia, on the one hand, and the critically important role that Ukraine played in the Kremlin's foreign policy calculations, on the other. The paper provides an empirically grounded interpretation of Russia's changing policy that emphasizes Russia–Ukraine–West interaction and a mutually reinforcing dynamics of their misunderstanding. It also addresses four alternative explanations of Russia's Ukraine policy and discusses several dangers and possible solutions to the crisis.     

Germany in Europe: return of the nightmare or towards an engaged Germany in a new Europe?

Especially since (re-)unification, perceptions of Germany alternate between the fear of the return of the German hegemon and – at the same time – the diametrically opposed call for more German leadership based on Germany's outstanding pro-European engagement. Nonetheless, Germany's foreign policy has changed little since 1989: it is still cautious rather than assertive. Due to Germany's experience with the two world wars, German foreign policy places great value on the enlargement as well as the deepening of the EU. In sum, Germany can best be characterised as a normal and engaged European state.     

Vladimir Putin's Vision of Russia as a Normal Great Power

A specialist on Russian foreign policy analyzes Putin's international strategy. The author draws on the writings of Russia's foreign policy decisionmakers, as well as on the commentary of Russian and Western analysts, to identify Putin's vision and compare it with that of recent leaders. Three elements of Putin's policies are examined: state concentration, cooperation with the West, and Russia's projection of influence in the former Soviet region. The question of Western responses to Putin's strategy is also addressed.     

Soft or Hard Power? Discourse Patterns in Brazil's Foreign Policy Toward South America

This article analyzes the discourse of Brazil's foreign policy toward South America from 1995 to 2010 by means of quantifying, codifying, and weighting all speeches registered in the homogeneous and periodic official documentation of Brazil's Ministry of Foreign Affairs using a discourse analysis approach. The aim is to investigate discourse patterns in order to qualify Brazil's foreign policy as either hard power or soft power and to identify the orientation and differences in its discourse of foreign policy regarding each country of South America during the presidential terms of Fernando Henrique Cardoso (1995–2002) and Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (2003–2010).     

ANC foreign policy making during the Mbeki period: More democratic or less?

The African National Congress, as an entity distinct from government, served during the 1994–2008 period as an independent forum for debate about South Africa's foreign policy, particularly in the National Executive Committee's Subcommittee on International Relations. This debate retained the oligarchic character of the movement in exile, with few voices – Thabo Mbeki's most prominent among them – dominating the discussion, inputs from subnational party structures almost non-existent, and dissenters expected to keep quiet publicly. That said, participants in these discussions largely dismissed characterisations of Mbeki as a dictator in the foreign policy debate, noting that the predominance of his views stemmed mostly from his strong argumentation and knowledge rather than bullying. Senior ANC leaders also claimed that limited interest in foreign policy, outside of national party structures, hindered efforts to broaden participation in foreign policy formulation.     

“Rediscovery”, “Reinvigoration” and “Redefinition” in Perpetuity: Australian Engagement with India 1983–2011

For the past twenty‐five years Australia's bilateral relationship with India has been typified by an ongoing process of “rediscovery”, irrespective of whether Labor or Liberal administrations have steered foreign policy. This article explores the reasons why this might be the case by analysing Australia's foreign policy approaches to India spanning the period 1983 to 2011. It interrogates various Labor and Liberal strategies that have been mobilised to “reinvigorate” the relationship and searches for reasons why they have only been partially successful in strengthening Australia's rapport with India. The authors draw upon discussions with strategic affairs editors of India's major daily newspapers and current affairs journals to gain insights into Indian impressions of Australia from a political and foreign policy perspective.     

The Formation of the New Government in Taiwan and Japan-Taiwan Relations

This article introduces the background of the presidential and congressional election and discusses the reason for the results. The Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) won both the presidential and congress members' elections, which signals emergence of the first real regime change in Taiwan. However, the style of the Tsai government isn't the same as that of the Chen Shui-bian government and will probably adopt a more modest policy on the cross-strait issue. On the other hand, the Nationalist Party (KMT) lost the election so severely that it's so difficult to recover the situation. On this point, it’s possible that the policy framework of Taiwan, like a two party system, will change drastically in the near future. Foreign policy, especially policy regarding Japan, will be changed by the new government. Actually, the People's Republic of China (PRC) government basically didn't interfere with Ma's foreign policy, so Ma could achieve many foreign policy initiatives. He concluded an economic partnership agreement (EPA) with Singapore and New Zealand, and agreements for investment and fishing with Japan. However, the PRC probably won't provide enough room for foreign policy for the Tsai government.     

Nigeria's foreign policy and transnational security challenges in West Africa

This article explores how Nigeria's foreign policy has responded to transnational security challenges in West Africa. It engages in a conceptual overview of the discourse on transnational security and links this with a discussion of Nigeria's foreign policy towards West Africa. Of note is Nigeria's pursuit of a leadership role in the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), in its quest for security, economic integration and development. Several questions are posed: What do Nigerian policymakers consider to be the most significant transnational threats in West Africa? How and through what legitimate policies and instruments do they respond to such threats? How important is ECOWAS to Nigeria's attempt to respond to transnational threats? And how effective have Nigeria's attempts to influence the ECOWAS agenda in this regard been? Although ECOWAS has remained central to Nigeria's responses to transnational security threats in the subregion, the country has not been able to match its rhetoric on addressing transnational security threats with far-reaching concrete achievements. It is suggested that social transformation of Nigeria's current foreign policy (that is, to one focused and committed to putting people at its centre) and a change in the policies of dominant global powers towards West Africa would enhance human emancipation and eliminate the numerous insecurities confronting the peoples of the subregion.     

Situating the European Union within South Africa's foreign policy calculus

ABSTRACT

This article reviews the importance of the EU–South Africa Strategic Partnership in South Africa's foreign policy calculations after a decade in existence. While political differences have been open for all to see in cases such as Zimbabwe and South Africa's notice of withdrawal from the International Criminal Court, the enhanced political dialogue is important in ensuring that the partners have a greater appreciation of the complexities faced by foreign policy-makers on both sides. This study is thus interested in uncovering why political relations have lagged behind the economic and social aspects of the relationship. After assessing South Africa's foreign policy interests towards the EU, it then reviews where the political fault lines have been located since the adoption of the Joint Action Plan before identifying areas of cooperation in meeting South Africa’s interests as stated in the 2011 white paper on foreign policy.