Three scenarios for the future of China

As we begin to think about the twenty-first century, we are entering a time of fundamental global change. the most dramatic shift will be the movement of China to the status of great power. Yet, the only specific forecast for the future of China that we can make with confidence is that a straight-line extrapolation is most unlikely to occur. China will not continue to grow at double digit rates for the coming decade. Nor is the rest of Southeast Asia going to grow at the 8 percent that has been registered for the past decade and more. Nor is everything going to go smoothly.     

The future impact of energy problems in China

Hisahiro Kanayama graduated from the University of Tokyo with a B.A. in Economics in 1981, then joined the Nippon Steel Corporation. Several years later, he took a two‐year sabbatical to obtain his MBA from the University of Washington in Seattle. Upon returning to Japan, he became a manager at the Plate Sales Division of the Tokyo Head Office. Seconded to IIPS as a senior research fellow in July of 1992, his work is focused on Japanese policy in Asia and he has published several policy papers including “Economic Zones in China” (104J) and “The Marketization of China and Japan's Response” (115E).     

Succession,consolidation, and transition in China’s future

Succession politics in China is usually seen as one political process. This article argues that in fact, political succession in China after Deng Xiaoping should be seen as three analytically and politically distinct processes: succession, consolidation, and transition. Each process requires different political skills and attributes, and success in one process does not guarantee success in another, and may in fact work against success in another. The article argues that Jiang Zemin is likely to be the successor, but that he will have great difficulty consolidating power after Deng’s death. One way he might consolidate power is to reverse the verdict of June 4. The failure of Jiang or anyone else to consolidate power is likely to slow economic transition.     

在华跨国公司的人才本土化战略及其影响

跨国公司在华实施人才本土化战略的主要方式是以较高的薪酬吸引人才、设立研究开发机构网罗人才、独立或合作培养人才、通过并购寻求人才.它有助于中国经济融入经济全球化潮流、获取跨国公司的技术溢出效应、促进人力资源开发、加快人才资源配置的市场化进程,但也带来人才流失风险加大、自主知识产权开发受到冲击等负面影响.中国应从战略的高度切实重视人才安全问题,加强对跨国公司实施人才本土化战略的政策引导,创新人才培养、使用、配置和激励机制.     

日本汽车产业链及其在中国的延伸

日本汽车产业在一定的时间和空间条件下形成了独特的产业链模式,这种相对稳固的垂直封闭型模式结构是由生产者驱动的,具有显著的集群化、层次性和长效性特征,一定程度上降低了企业生产成本,提高了日本汽车产业的国际竞争力。但是这种长期封闭的内部结构由于缺乏竞争机制,使得日本汽车产业的创新能力和技术竞争优势正在逐渐弱化,特别是高度集群化的产业链模式,在不可抗力面前显得非常脆弱,因此日本汽车产业链转移的步伐开始加快。其中向中国市场的转移经历了低端试探、中位引进、高级融合以及供应链集群化随动的阶段,为日本汽车企业降低了风险并带来了收益。     

Rise of a new elite in rural China and its characteristics

As it became clear in China that economic reforms were there to stay, more people became involved in commercial activities, including many local cadres, as they realized how they could profit in private business. Rural elites are emerging not only in the economic field but also in the cultural and social fields. The relations of the new elites with local authorities vary from province to province. The new elites may differ from the state in their interests, but may cooperate closely for the time being, although as they mature they will become more independent and harder to control politically. And once a large political crisis occurs they will replace party organizations and assume local leadership.     

China’s economic system and its accession to the WTO

In moving towards becoming a market economy, China has made dramatic strides since embarking on reforms in 1978, but liberalizations have been accompanied by inflationary booms followed by bouts of social instability. These last account for much of the caution in China’s approach to joining the World Trade Organization, which is seen as critical to securing further foreign direct investment, foreign technology and access to foreign markets—all necessary to economic growth and development. There is a reluctance to make firm commitments to abide by WTO rules on a schedule faster than that expected of developing countries. Perhaps the commitments required could be undertaken in confidence-building stages. Albert Keidel III is president, Rock Creek Research Inc., economic consultants, Bethesda, Maryland, and teaches on China’s economy in the Department of Economics, Georgetown University, Washington D.C.     

Saudi Arabia plans for its economic future: Vision 2030, the National Transformation Plan and Saudi fiscal reform

ABSTRACT

In response to a rapid decline in world oil prices, Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman introduced a new economic blueprint called Saudi Vision 2030 and the accompanying National Transformation Plan that would enable the Kingdom to diversify its heavily oil-dependent revenue base, reduce its growing budget deficits, balance its budgets, and promote long-term economic growth. This article analyses the goals of the Vision and the policies offered to achieve them, which entail significant reforms to the Kingdom’s fiscal and budgetary procedures and policies. This study considers the political and institutional challenges that confront the Saudi Vision and its likelihood of success.     

China’s view of the war threat and its foreign policy

In analyzing China’s foreign policy since 1949, people tend to take for granted the nature of China’s concern for its national security as the predominant factor in the development of its foreign policy without distinguishing changes in the functions of this factor. The evidence given in this article argues that at least as early as the late 1970s, leaders in Beijing, predominantly Deng Xiaoping, no longer held Mao’s view of the inevitability and imminence of world war, and of the Soviet threat to China’s national security. Therefore I propose that from the beginning of the Deng era in 1978, national status enhancement or muscle building through modernization had replaced national security as the persistent and principal theme in China’s foreign policy. We should not interpret the main reason for China’s increased push for the formation of an international antihegemony united front as its increasing concern about the Soviet threat to its national security. In turn, we may conclude that when China abandoned this united front foreign policy to adopt the Independent Foreign Policy in 1982, it was neither because of a new global reality that was shaping the reorientation of its foreign policy nor because only in 1982 did China rediscover the Soviet threat.     

试析美国总统的法律条款临时中止权——以美国对华出口卫星为例

在美国总统的行政权力中,法律条款临时中止权是一项比较特殊的权力,来自于国会的授予。在获取授权之后,总统可以相对独立地行使这项权力。总统法律条款临时中止权在美国的政治生活中应用广泛,但也受到一些复杂因素的影响。在涉及到美国对华卫星出口领域的问题时,总统法律条款临时中止权在1998年前曾发挥了重要的作用。随后由于国会收紧控制、美国指责中国扩散导弹技术,以及主观上对华认识的偏见等,导致总统再也没有行使过法律条款临时中止权,美国对华卫星出口业务也一直处于停滞状态。     

南海争端中的美国因素及其影响

在美国重返东南亚的大背景下,南海争端呈现出复杂化的趋势。本文概述了南海争端现状和各方对相关国际法律的不同解读,分析探讨了美国关注南海争端的原因、美国的立场政策、以及美国因素对南海争端当事国的影响。通过剖析美国因素,本文认为,美国对南海问题当事国相关政策或行动的支持倾向,客观上已使得南海问题的多边化、国际化态势逐渐转为现实,美国因素对中国试图解决南海争端的努力形成一定的挑战。     

韩国发展社会慈善事业的基本经验及其对我国的启示

长期以来,社会慈善事业在韩国社会中一直发挥着重要的作用,尤其受到1998年亚洲金融危机冲击以后,韩国民众越来越认识到发展社会慈善事业的重要性。无论是韩国政府还是民间力量,都在推动社会慈善事业发展中做出了重要贡献。在政府层面,通过创设或完善相关法律以合理规范社会慈善的发展,充分发挥宗教团体在社会慈善事业中的功能,对公民进行慈善教育以强化公民慈善意识以及积极扶持民间公益组织等;在民间组织层面,民间公益组织不仅严格按照法律规范运作,而且长期秉承透明与负责的运作方式。此外,韩国社会名流也积极参与,以身示范等。这些多重因素共同推动了韩国社会慈善事业的稳步发展。     

欧盟东扩及其对华关系前瞻

本文从回顾欧盟的发展历程入手,进而分析欧盟东扩后对其内部经济政治两方面所带来的影响,最后研究并预测未来中欧关系的发展趋势.     

Changing Japan and its ties with Australia

In his assessment of Japan‐Australia relations, Former Ambassador to Australia and IIPS President Yoshio Okawara emphasizes that both countries have vital roles to play in the Asia‐Pacific cooperation process. While Australia was instrumental in APEC's 1989 launch, now Japan must give momentum to its development at the upcoming Osaka APEC meeting. President Okawara originally gave this speech at the Japan‐Australia Relations Symposium in Canberra shortly before the 50th anniversary of WWH's end. In addition to his term in Australia, President Okawara has served as Ambassador to the United States and is currently Executive Advisor to Keidanren.     

新加坡加强发展对华经济的动因分析

近年来,由于世界经济形势发生了新变化,美、日、欧等主要发达国家的经济增速放缓,使得新加坡的经济 发展面临着严峻的挑战。而中国经济在全球经济普遍不景气的情况下,继续保持良好的增长势头。为了赶搭中国经济发展 的顺风车,新加坡政府推出“中国战略”,希望通过进一步加强同中国的经贸关系,来重振国内经济。     

中国石油战略的西南布局

南海局势和台海局势充满了风险和变数.一旦形势恶化,中国的海上油路将受阻,沿海石油储备基地也难保安全.因此,从经济发展和安全战略长远计,中国应考虑发展与越南、印度和缅甸的能源合作,在西南地区建设石油储备基地.     

德国对华公共外交:以“德中同行”活动为例

本文从公共外交概念的一般释义出发,追溯德国公共外交的历史,剖析其在全球化时代的新内涵,重点通过德中同行系列活动这一主动型公共外交行为的实证分析,深入探讨德国对华公共外交的主导策略、对象、主体、方式和效果等各方面特点,解读德国对华公共外交的意图、运作机制及其可借鉴之处。