A method for estimating the GNP loss from a future oil embargo

This article develops a theoretical model to estimate the loss in GNP to the U.S. economy that would result from a future oil embargo. The model is based on an input-output matrix of the economy, but modifies the traditional input-output analysis in order to take account of conservation and substitution possibilities. Data generated from the 1973–74 embargo is used as a bench mark for this study in order to assure that the model produces reasonable estimates. Based upon estimates of future economic and energy growth, this study concludes that the United States will become increasingly vulnerable to economic damage as a result of a future embargo.This work was begun while the author was employed at the Center of Naval Analyses during the summer of 1974. Financial support for the continuation of this project was received from the Federal Energy Administration, and this paper is a condensed version of a report sent to the FEA. Views expressed in this paper are those of the author, and do not necessarily reflect the position of either of the above organizations.     

An estimation of the lag structure of the economic impact of an oil embargo

A number of economic models have been used to estimate the economic losses resulting from oil embargoes, but they have not been able to provide good answers about how quickly an economy would recover once the embargo was over. This study uses a phase lag analysis to estimate the lag structure of an embargo, and concludes that the major economic effects should be expected to disappear about six weeks after an embargo ends.The views expressed in this paper are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the position of the Department of Energy.     

Causes, forms, and consequences of sectoral policy-making: some Danish evidence

Abstract. The article reviews policy-making patterns with respect to the importance and limits of sectorization and adds new analyses of the involvement of interest groups and bureaucrats in the legislative process. The pattern of sectoral policy-making appears to vary according to types of actors involved, stages of the process, party in government, and policy area in question. Basically however, it is a process of affected interests in action. While the findings fit well with some democratic principles they also give reason for some concern.     

A critical review of some basic considerations in post-secondary education evaluation

Following on a short review of North American program evaluation experiences in elementary, secondary and post-secondary education, a summary is given of the major problems observed in such evaluation efforts. With this background assessment, the remainder of the paper attempts to specify objectives and criteria that seem appropriate in post-secondary program evaluation in the 1970's. Some attention is devoted to problems of implementing changes in efficiency through increasing productivity by a number of alternative strategies. Finally, some tentative suggestions are made as to possible routes to implementing program evaluation in post-secondary education.     

The electoral consequences of issue ambiguity: An examination of the presidential candidates' issue positions from 1968 to 1980

This study investigates the consequences of ambiguity in the issue positions of presidential candidates from 1968 to 1980. Two potential consequences are examined: a direct impact and a conditional impact on the vote. The findings indicate no significant direct effect on the vote. However, significant conditional effects were found. Compared to losing candidates, winning candidates were somewhat less likely to hold clear positions when issues were salient to the public and were somewhat more likely to hold ambiguous positions when public opinion was dispersed. They were especially more likely to be ambiguous when their positions substantially differed from the median public position on the issue.     

Proportional representation: An empirical evaluation of single-stage,non-ranked voting procedures

Rapoport, Felsenthal and Maoz (1988) have proposed three alternative methods to discern the fair proportion of seats that a party in a representative assembly ought to receive as a function of voters' preference orderings. All three methods assume that the ratio between the number of voters preferring party i over j to the number of voters preferring party j over i can be tested for consistency, and, if sufficiently consistent, can be appropriately scaled to discover the proportion of seats each party ought to receive. Using these methods as standards, we use exit-poll data gathered during the 1985 elections to the general convention of the Israeli General Federation of Labor (Histadrut) to examine the extent to which plurality- and approval-voting procedures provide a fair allocation of seats. The findings indicate that: (a) all three methods yield sufficiently consistent matrices of preference ratios; (b) the plurality- and the approval-voting procedures yielded significantly different proportional representations; (c) the proposed proportion of seats according to the three aggregation methods fall midway between the proportion of seats that the plurality and the approval procedures allocate. We discuss practical implications of these findings. Requests for reprints should be sent to: Professor Amnon Rapoport, Department of Psychology, University of North Carolina, Davie Hall 013A, Chapel Hill, NC 27514.     

Twelve tongues, one voice: An evaluation of European political cooperation

Abstract. Traditional integration theories disagree over the scope of the main foreign policy instrument of the European Union (EU), the so-called European Political Cooperation (EPC). While intergovernmentalism suggests that EPC actions are weak, neofunctionalism maintains that cooperation within the EPC framework is characterised by strong measures. In this article, we present a game-theoretic and statistical analysis of these conflicting propositions and show that European foreign policy making is much more diversified than predicted by the predominating theoretical approaches. A signalling game demonstrates that the exploitation of uncertainty by a possible profit-seeker outside the organisation can cause inadequate EPC decisions. The formal model also explores the extent to which joint interest in closer foreign policy coordination can help to overcome diverging national policy preferences. The empirical test of some game-theoretic hypotheses shows that European foreign policy making has become more intensive. The increasing number of declarations is, however, also a sign of the proliferation of non-committing statements. Logit regressions reveal a close relationship between the economic salience of an EPC target nation to the European Union and the intensity of an EPC reaction.     

Estimating policy positions using political texts: An evaluation of the Wordscores approach

This paper evaluates a recently developed method for extracting policy positions from political texts, known as Wordscores. This computerized content analysis technique is a potentially powerful tool for scholars interested in the study of political elites, since it promises an easy and efficient way of inferring policy position from texts and speeches. In this article, we provide a systematic evaluation of this promising method. Using Danish manifestos and government speeches from 1945 to 2005, we compare the policy positions extracted using Wordscores with measures of positions from the well-known Comparative Manifesto Project and cross-validate these with party expert surveys. Our analysis shows that the word scoring technique arrives at largely similar estimates to independently derived position measures and produces time series of government positions with high face validity.     

The consequences of political disagreement in interpersonal communication: New insights from a comparative perspective

Political disagreement in interpersonal communication increases attitudinal ambivalence and can depress voter turnout. These effects seem to be driven by a wish to avoid social controversy rather than informational gains from encountering other opinions. This article shows that political disagreement in interpersonal communication increases the difficulty of deciding for which party to vote. Moreover, this effect is a result of social disapproval of one's party preference, while political expertise in interpersonal communication has no effect. For voter turnout, no direct effect of social disapproval of one's party preference is found. However, disapproval has an indirect influence on turnout via difficulty of vote choice. In sum, both political attitudes and political behaviour are affected by social pressures. Students of political attitudes and behaviour should try to include interpersonal discussion in their models in greater detail than is common practice today.     

An effectiveness‐based evaluation of five state pre‐kindergarten programs

Since 1980, the number of state pre‐kindergarten (pre‐K) programs has more than doubled, with 38 states enrolling more than one million children in 2006 alone. This study evaluates how five state pre‐K programs affected children's receptive vocabulary, math, and print awareness skills. Taking advantage of states' strict enrollment policies determined by a child's date of birth, a regression‐discontinuity design was used to estimate effects in Michigan, New Jersey, Oklahoma, South Carolina, and West Virginia. For receptive vocabulary, only New Jersey and Oklahoma yielded significant standardized impacts, though two of the three other coefficients were in a direction indicating positive effects. For math, all the coefficients were positive but only Michigan and New Jersey yielded reliable results. The largest impacts were for print awareness, where all five coefficients were positive and four were reliable in Michigan, New Jersey, South Carolina, and West Virginia. The five states were not randomly selected and, on average, have higher quality program standards than non‐studied states, precluding formal extrapolation to the nation at large. However, our sample of states differed in many other ways, permitting the conclusion that state pre‐K programs can have positive effects on children's cognitive skills, though the magnitude of these effects varies by state and outcome. © 2008 by the Association for Public Policy Analysis and Management.     

The need for some innovative concepts of innovation: An examination of research on the diffusion of innovations

This paper examines research on the diffusion of innovation, the final stage in the process of technological change. The focus rests primarily on two traditions in diffusion research: that of economists and that of sociologists. Diffusion researchers in these and related disciplines have made significant contributions to the understanding of the dynamics of processes of change; yet the state of the art in diffusion research is not equal to the sum of its parts. This is due in large measure to disciplinary parochialism: scholars have concentrated on those innovations, diffusion environments, explanatory variables, and analytical methodologies which are most compatible with their particular disciplines, despite the fact that diffusion is not a discipline-specific phenomenon. Deficiencies in current understanding of diffusion are examined in the context of this and other significant problems. The paper concludes by considering the policy relevance of diffusion research and suggesting issues with which future research might productively be concerned.The following individuals have been most helpful in stimulating and directing my interest in this subject and in criticizing this paper: Richard R. Nelson of Yale University and the following members of the Faculty Seminar on Innovation and Social Change, Institute of Public Policy Studies, University of Michigan: Michael Moch, Lawrence Mohr, Everett Rogers, Herbert Schuette, Jack Walker, and Sidney Winter.     

Society as emergent and more than rational: An essay on the inappropriateness of program evaluation

In considering the efficacy of program evaluation researchers have not put language in proper perspective. They have not acknowledged that information gained from applied research is partly determined by situational factors, that language is selective and goal-oriented, justifying activity as often as it describes it, or that some important action cannot be expressed. The importance of language distinguishes applied social assessment from the natural science models of research from which it was derived. Examples from a wide range of applied situations are used to illustrate that, as an anticedent-consequent model of objective quantified assessment, evaluation is also inconsistent with the complex, resourceful, emergent social processes it is intended to measure. Three alternatives to quantification are discussed to illustrate interventions that may be made when the disadvantages of program evaluation outweigh the advantages.Preparation of the paper was supported by National Institute of Mental Health post-doctoral training grant 5T222-MH00180. Comments and requests for reprints should be sent to Nancy Cochran, Department of Mental Health and Developmental Disabilities, State of Illinois, 160 N. LaSalle Street, Chicago. Illinois 6061.     

Additional incumbent spending really can harm (at least some) incumbents: An analysis of vote share maximization

The literature on the effects of campaign expenditures on electoral outcomes implicitly suggests that incumbent spending cannot have a negative marginal impact on the incumbent's vote share. Indeed, that literature has spent a great deal of effort finding positive and significant effects of incumbent spending. This paper shows that there are circumstances under which theory predicts zero and even negative impacts of incumbent spending. Estimating equations derived from the theory provide strong support for the base model, though only weak support for the extensions which predict nonpositive marginal products for incumbents.