An estimation of the lag structure of the economic impact of an oil embargo

A number of economic models have been used to estimate the economic losses resulting from oil embargoes, but they have not been able to provide good answers about how quickly an economy would recover once the embargo was over. This study uses a phase lag analysis to estimate the lag structure of an embargo, and concludes that the major economic effects should be expected to disappear about six weeks after an embargo ends.The views expressed in this paper are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the position of the Department of Energy.     

A method for estimating the GNP loss from a future oil embargo

This article develops a theoretical model to estimate the loss in GNP to the U.S. economy that would result from a future oil embargo. The model is based on an input-output matrix of the economy, but modifies the traditional input-output analysis in order to take account of conservation and substitution possibilities. Data generated from the 1973–74 embargo is used as a bench mark for this study in order to assure that the model produces reasonable estimates. Based upon estimates of future economic and energy growth, this study concludes that the United States will become increasingly vulnerable to economic damage as a result of a future embargo.This work was begun while the author was employed at the Center of Naval Analyses during the summer of 1974. Financial support for the continuation of this project was received from the Federal Energy Administration, and this paper is a condensed version of a report sent to the FEA. Views expressed in this paper are those of the author, and do not necessarily reflect the position of either of the above organizations.     

Prices,Devices, People,or Rules: The Relative Effectiveness of Policy Instruments in Water Conservation1

Water conservation policy is a natural laboratory for addressing general issues of relevance to policy analysis and public administration, particularly the relative effectiveness of policies in changing human behavior. Using multivariate regression analysis of a dataset comprised of more than 200,000 monthly observations of more than 19,000 household accounts over six years, this paper makes three main contributions. First, it contributes to the substantive area of water conservation policy by analyzing what works. Second, it contributes to our understanding of generic policy instruments. Third, it raises an important issue regarding standard assumptions about selection bias. The results support earlier work warning that offsetting behavior can negate engineering solutions to policy problems, but further indicate that adding communication to engineering solutions can create cooperation that overcomes offsetting behavior. They also provide evidence that appropriate regulation can be effective, and that pricing can be effective even when price elasticities of demand are low.     

公共政策制定过程中公意的应然表达

在一个民主的社会，是否合乎公意无疑是评判公共政策的最为重要的指标之一。公共政策制定过程中公意的应然表达包括三个层次。其一，公意作为全体人民的意愿和需求的表现形式，应该是公共政策制定的逻辑起点；其二，公意作为全体人民对政治系统输出的公共政策的认同和忠诚的观念，应该是公共政策制定的合法性基石；其三，公意作为民主政府公共政策的依归，应该是公共政策制定的价值取向。     

Civil Rights,Federalism, and the Administrative Process: Favorable Outcomes by Federal,State, and Local Agencies in Housing Discrimination Complaints

Some theorists argue that cooperative intergovernmental relations are critical to policy implementation in the United States. This assertion is explored in the context of fair housing enforcement by comparing favorable administrative outcomes in fair housing complaints at the federal, state, and local levels from 1989 to 2004. What conclusions can be drawn from this systematic comparison of intergovernmental enforcement in one policy area over an extended period of time? First, cooperative federalism works well in fair housing enforcement. Second, of special significance, state civil rights agencies resolve complaints in favor of complainants nearly as often as the Department of Housing and Urban Development, and localities sometimes do so even more frequently.     

The implications of the emerging disproportionate policy perspective for the new policy design studies

This paper articulates the disproportionate policy perspective and uses it to mount four challenges for the new policy design orientation. First, in contrast to the new policy design thinking, disproportionate policy options may be systematically designed, and at times, successfully implemented. Second, in contrast to the new policy design thinking, there are certain conditions under which policymakers may tend to develop effective response, with cost considerations becoming only secondary in importance if at all (read, policy overreaction), or cost-conscious response, with effectiveness considerations becoming only secondary in importance if at all (read, policy underreaction). Third, in contrast to the new policy design thinking, disproportionate policy options may be designed for purposes other than implementation (e.g., to be used as signaling devices or as context-setters). Fourth, in contrast to new policy design thinking, there are certain conditions under which the emotional arena of policy may be equally, if not more, important than the substantive one. The paper concludes that so far the literature on new policy design has not responded to the emergence of the disproportionate policy perspective, but a robust research agenda awaits those answering this paper’s call for action.     

Ukrainian Local Governments’ Finance on the Threshold of a New Millenium: Will Interbudgetary Reform Meet Public Needs?

Since independence, market–oriented reforms have been undertaken in Ukraine. Yet, intergovernmental relations are obsolete, remaining as they were in the Soviet time. In fact, Ukrainian subcentral governments have no significant discretion in revenues and expenditures. First, the article delivers an overview of the current system of intergovernmental finance in Ukraine. Second, the article reveals some negative trends in Ukrainian local governments' fiscal performance through the late 1990s that made a reform of intergovernmental fiscal arrangements timely. Third, the article analyzes recent reform steps as presented by the recent Budget Code, proposing policy options that could strengthen Ukrainian intergovernmental policy.     

The Unintended Effects of Social Policy Measures

The unintended effects of social policy measures are frequently important, controversial, difficult to ascertain and even more difficult to quantify. Some selected aspects of four types of unintended effects are discussed in this article. First, effects due to redistribution of income as well as life chances and opportunities as determined by market forces and attitudes (sexism, ageism, racism) favor some at the expense of others. Even redistribution which increases gross domestic product (GDP) often disadvantages certain groups. Second, contingency-related benefits tend to favor population groups differently. Third, free and subsidized health services, in certain conditions, increase both the supply and demand for services—the moral hazard problem. Fourth, contingency benefits in cash and kind tend to increase the incidence of such contingencies and, if income-related, tend to result in poverty and unemployment traps. Cross-national comparative studies may be a useful device in ascertaining effects or the absence of effects.     

A technical appraisal of the IIASA energy scenarios

Several shortcomings in a major study of the world's energy system are described. The study, entitled Energy in a Finite World, resulted in widely publicized conclusions and urgent policy recommendations that were derived from detailed projections of the global energy future. A set of computer models was used to produce these projections, which are analyzed here in two ways. First, treating the models as a black box, it is shown that several principal results are effectively prescribed informally in input data that pass through the models unchanged. Second, despite claims of robustness, detailed sensitivity analysis shows that the energy supply projections are highly sensitive to perturbations in various input data. Early work that revealed this problem is not cited, and standard sensitivity tests are not provided in the study. Thus, despite the appearance of analytical rigor, the study's conclusions are evidently based on opinions rather than objective robust analysis.Bill Keepin is Research Fellow at the Beijer Institute, Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, Box 50005, S-104 05 Stockholm, Sweden. This work was carried out at IIASA, where he was Research Scholar from October 1981 to June 1984.     

What about non-diffusion? The effect of competitiveness in policy-comparative diffusion research

Many scholars have convincingly shown that policies diffuse between national and sub-national entities for several different reasons. Although diffusion processes are empirically proven, we witness two shortcomings in the discussion: First, there is a lack of comparative research across policy areas. Second, the question of why diffusion might not occur in a certain domain is under-theorized and lacks an empirical test. By comparing the rationale behind diffusion processes in two policy domains??energy policy and locational policy??this paper shows that two aspects matter for diffusion processes: First is the observability of policy measures, that is, how easily things can be observed by others; second is the competitiveness of the policy domain. If policy measures can be hidden easily and the policy domain is highly competitive, policy diffusion is very unlikely to happen. Therefore, we seek the integration of these two aspects in prospective diffusion research.     

Is There a Dark Side to Government Supportfor Nonprofits?

The relationship between government social spending and private donations to the nonprofit sector is an issue that is relevant to both public administrators and nonprofit managers. Does government funding displace philanthropy, or encourage it? This article introduces the debate into the public administration literature. First, I survey and interpret the empirical work performed to date in this area by economists. Second, I retest this question across four nonprofit subsectors using data on both federal and state/local spending. My survey of the literature shows mixed results, although a broad pattern indicates that “crowding out” tends to dominate, particularly in the areas of social service provision and health. My empirical results are consistent with these findings, although they must be interpreted cautiously from a policy perspective: While results are statistically significant, the degree of crowding out is generally small. On the other hand, the claim that government funding stimulates giving seems to lack both statistical and policy significance.     

Equality and efficiency: The illusory tradeoff

Abstract. Scholars and policy makers have traditionally assumed that nations face a tradeoff between income equality and economic efficiency. Greater equality is believed to reduce investment and dampen work incentives. A heterodox view suggests that a more egalitarian distribution of income may have beneficial efficiency effects by augmenting consumer demand and/or encouraging workers to cooperate in upgrading competitiveness. This paper offers an empirical assessment of the relationship between equality and efficiency, based on cross-sectional data from 17 advanced industrialized economies over the period 1974–90. The comparative evidence indicates no adverse impact of greater equality on investment or work effort, nor on growth of productivity or output, trade balances, inflation, or unemployment. On the contrary, higher levels of equality are associated with stronger productivity growth and trade performance, and possibly with higher investment and lower inflation.     

International agencies and the art of the possible: The case of the IEA

Although contemporary international organizations are often perceived as rule-making and rule-enforcing bodies, their more important function is to serve as facilitators of agreement among governments. Actions of the International Energy Agency during 1979–1980 illustrate this point. In the oil crises of those years, the IEA did not make use of its formal emergency powers, nor did it develop new sets of rules governing state action. Instead, it engaged in extensive informal negotiations designed to persuade governments and oil companies to restrain demand for oil, help to redistribute shortages equitably, and manage oil stocks in a stabilizing manner. This emphasis on informal bargaining reflected a sophisticated awareness, on the part of the IEA secretariat and many governmental representatives, both of the constraints on international organizations and of their value as a catalyst for coalitions of public and private officials. International organizations do not transform the interstate system; but they can contribute, at the margin, to increased cooperation.     

Policy advice as policy work: a conceptual framework for multi-level analysis

This article argues that policy advice can be understood as a special kind of “policy work” that depends upon a diverse set of factors operating at different levels. The basic aim of the article is to disentangle this multi-level and multifaceted phenomenon into a conceptual framework that can be used for empirical analysis and theory building. In that framework, policy advice is conceptualized as a never-ending interaction among various actors in a specific institutional context, through which routines and norms are both reproduced and abolished. First, it is explained why policy advice is most fruitfully understood as a special kind of policy work, and then how it relates to other policy work activities. Second, problems with single-level approaches are discussed and the need for a multi-level approach is explained. Third, a multi-level conceptual framework is formulated and described. Fourth, some possible applications of the framework are illustrated with examples from current empirical research. The article concludes with implications for research and theory building.     

Pigouvian policies in closed behavioral systems

This essay-analyzes the Pigouvian tax-subsidy policy, reviews the traditional justification and several practical and theoretical criticisms of it, and offers three arguments about the Pigouvian policy and the implied structure of effluent charges (as well as subsidies). First, many proponents of a Pigouvian policy misinterpret its purpose. The tax is not designed to reduce pollution to an ‘acceptable’ level, but to maximize joint production value. Second, Pigouvian effluent charges may violate some constructions of the equal protection clause. Third, these charges may violate, also, some constructions of the due process clause, as well as the ethical criteria that the right of due process implies.     

Policy entrepreneurship in developing countries: A systematic review of the literature

What can be learned from two decades of studies on policy entrepreneurship in developing countries? Policy entrepreneurship is a rapidly evolving analytical concept. A growing number of studies exploring public policy in developing countries use policy entrepreneurship as an explanatory theoretical concept. However, a substantial part of this research relies on qualitative case study analysis, lacking a comprehensive overview of the concept of policy entrepreneurship. This paper conducts a systematic review of the literature on policy entrepreneurship in developing countries. A total of 47 papers addressing policy entrepreneurship in the developing world, published between 1993 and 2017, have been analysed. The purpose and contribution of this paper are to offer a clearer picture of policy entrepreneurship in the developing world by concentrating on two aspects. First, we describe the characteristics of the studies on policy entrepreneurship in the developing world. Second, we analyse such studies, identifying the lessons that can be drawn on the phenomenon of policy entrepreneurship in the developing world. We conclude with an agenda for future studies, examining new theoretical, methodological, and empirical opportunities to advance the understanding of policy entrepreneurship in developing countries.     

Democratic Accountability in Decentralised Governance1

This article develops a conceptual framework for studying democratic accountability in decentralised governance, and discusses critical issues about democratic accountability from a citizen's perspective. First, the concept is discussed and adapted to make it useful for studying democratic accountability in different governance structures. Second, the article scrutinises conditions for democratic accountability in decentralised governance based on three models. Third, democratic accountability is discussed with reference to a case study of public reviewers operating in four municipalities in Sweden. The study indicates that municipal auditors and the local media have the greatest impact on municipal policy. On the whole, auditors improve local governments’ internal control and systems for steering and monitoring municipal policy, whereas the media sometimes alter the policy agenda without changing the policy. Auditors maintain and support an elitist democratic orientation of democratic accountability, and the media maintain this democratic orientation and in addition promote democratic dialogue. Viewed from a citizen's perspective, the traditional accountability system does not work satisfactorily. State inspectors and municipal auditors – two important public reviewers in the current system – could improve their work to make it more useful to citizens’ democratic control. Another way discussed to develop democratic accountability is to promote participatory policy and concrete means of accountability (e.g. on‐site visits, conducted tours and different forms of democratic dialogue). The formal way to improve democratic accountability implies more transparency, monitoring and control, which may also lead to distrust and scapegoat thinking (i.e. a surveillance society), whereas concrete modes of accountability, more associated with participatory and deliberative democracy, imply mutual responsibility and trust building. Strengthening participatory policy, active citizens, collective responsibility and democratic dialogue could be an alternative to the emerging audit society.     

Rebuilding the System of Justice in Afghanistan: A Preliminary Assessment

Abstract

This preliminary evaluation describes the role of international assistance in the reconstruction of the Afghan judicial system. It focuses on how international policy has both sought to develop and impose externally designed central administrative models and legal codes and also to pragmatically adapt to existing, highly decentralized, practices shaped by the Islamic tradition. The research conducted suggests that international policy in this area has done little to reinforce the central administrative control of the centre. First, regional power structures have been pragmatically accepted, as highlighted in the bypassing of a transitional justice phase, in an attempt to maintain a fragile political stability. Second, the fragmented nature of the Afghan justice system has been reinforced by the lack of coordination between the relevant international actors, which have generated a bundle of projects in the area, each advancing independently.     

Do Voters Follow? The Effect of Party Cues on Public Opinion During a Process of Policy Change

A large body of literature has demonstrated how citizens use party endorsements when shaping their policy opinions. However, recent studies question the centrality of party cues in shaping public opinion. This study advances the literature with a four‐wave panel survey design that measures citizens’ policy opinions before, during and after a controversial policy proposal to ban street begging was made by the Norwegian government in 2014. Two main findings inform previous work. First, voters are modestly affected by party cues as the proposition turns salient. Second, when a party shifts their policy position on a highly salient issue, voters do not automatically shift their opinions accordingly. Thus, the magnitude and direction of opinion change in the electorate indicate that party cue effects are modest and that instead of polarizing patterns across time parallel publics moving in the same direction independent of party cues are detected. These findings demonstrate that under some conditions, voters’ opinion formation is less dependent on partisan elites than much of the previous work indicates.     

Policy simulation for crude oil production of OPEC countries

This paper presents a policy simulation study for the behavior of crude oil production of OPEC countries, especially oil exporting countries in the Middle East, and its influence on the world energy situation. The policy questions to be examined include: What kind of policy could avoid or postpone the occurrence of “creeping cutback” by OPEC countries, without creating an “eye for eye” type policy? What priorities exist among alternative policies? For this purpose, a policy simulation model written in DYNAMO II has been developed. Policy analyses using this simulator are presented, and the methodological limitations of this approach are discussed.