Estimation of arrest careers using hierarchical stochastic models

This paper introduces a general procedure using hierarchical stochastic models for characterizing criminal careers within a population of heterogeneous offenders. Individuals engage in criminal careers which are treated as stochastic processes governed by fixed parameters (e.g., a rate parameter), and these parameters come from specified distributions. The parameters of these distributions at the upper level of the hierarchy must then be specified. The models are estimated using data on all persons arrested at least once in the six-county Detroit Standard Metropolitan Statistical Area during the 4 years 1974–1977 for a criterion offense (an index crime other than larceny) and arrested at least once for robbery through April 1979. The collected data set is not a random sample of all such offenders in the population. There is a bias toward selecting those with a higher arrest frequency. In order to make more general inferences, statistical adjustment was needed to overcome the arrest-frequency sampling bias. We construct a series of models for the arrest career and fit the models with the data set of arrests. After correcting biases in the data, we estimate the model parameters using empirical Bayes methods and then examine the resulting models.     

LONG‐TERM CRIME DESISTANCE AND RECIDIVISM PATTERNS—EVIDENCE FROM THE ESSEX COUNTY CONVICTED FELON STUDY*

Two conflicting definitions of desistance exist in the criminology literature. The first definition is instantaneous desistance in which an offender simply chooses to end a criminal career instantaneously moving to a zero rate of offending ( Blumstein et al., 1986 ). The second definition views desistance as a process by which the offending rate declines steadily over time to zero or to a point close to zero ( Bushway et al., 2001 ; Laub and Sampson, 2001 ; Leblanc and Loeber, 1998 ). In this article, we capitalize on the underlying assumptions of several parametric survival distributions to gain a better understanding of which of these models best describes actual patterns of desistance. All models are examined using 18 years of follow‐up data on a cohort of felony convicts in Essex County, NJ. Our analysis leads us to three conclusions. First, some people have already desisted at the beginning of the follow‐up period, which is consistent with the notion of “instantaneous desistance.” Second, a three‐parameter model that allows for a turning point in the risk of recidivism followed by a long period of decline fits the data best. This conclusion suggests that for those offenders active at the start of the study period, the risk of recidivism is declining over time. However, we also find that a simpler two‐group model fits the data almost as well and gains superiority in the later years of follow‐up. This last point is particularly relevant as it suggests that the observed gradual decline in the hazard over time is a result of a compositional effect rather than of a pattern of individually declining hazards.     

Micro-models of criminal careers: A synthesis of the criminal careers and life course approaches via semiparametric mixed poisson regression models,with empirical applications

Much recent research and debate in criminology have centered around how to conceptualize and model longitudinal sequences of delinquent and criminal acts committed by individuals. Two approaches dominate this controversy. One originates in thecriminal careers paradigm, which emphasizes a potentialheterogeneity of offending groups in the general population—thus leading to a distinction between incidence and prevalence of criminal offending, a focus on the onset, persistence, and desistence of criminal careers, and the possibility that criminals are a distinctive group with constant high rates of offending. Another approach places criminal events within a broader context ofstudies of the life course by explicitly substituting the conceptualization of “social events” for that of “criminal careers”. With respect to analytical models, this approach emphasizes a potentialheterogeneity of offenders with respect to order of criminal events from first to second to higher orders and thus suggests an analysis of the “risks” or “hazards” of offending by order of offense. Some extant commentaries on the criminal careers and life course approaches to conceptualizing and modeling longitudinal sequences of delinquent and criminal events committed by individuals have emphasized their differences and incompatibilities. In contrast, we apply recently developed semiparametric mixed Poisson regression techniques to develop conditions under which the two conceptual/modeling approaches are formally equivalent. We also modify the semiparametric mixed Poisson regression model of criminal careers to incorporate information on order of the delinquent/criminal event and develop an empirical application. This modification demonstrates the complementarity of the criminal careers and life course approaches, even though they have somewhat different foci.     

An improved methodology for analyzing age-arrest profiles: Application to a Western Australian offender population

A new methodology for displaying and analyzing arrest profiles of a population of offenders is illustrated on a data set containing information on all arrests made in the jurisdiction of the state of Western Australia in the 12-year period 1 April 1984 to 31 December 1995. The arrest profile shows the number of arrests accumulated by an individual offender as a function of the age at which each arrest took place. This provides a summary of the arrest careers of the individuals in the population and facilitates comparisons between groups of interest in the population, such as sex and race groups. In particular, it enables comparisons to be made between cohorts of offenders defined by the age-at-onset of their offending. For the Western Australian population analyzed here we find large differences between sex and race (Aboriginal or non-Aboriginal) groups, and also between age-at-onset cohorts, and we place these differences in the context of current criminological discussions which posit that higher mean numbers of offenses will be committed by early career starters.     

Estimating the numbers of prison terms in criminal careers from one-step probabilities of recidivism

A method of using estimates of one-step probabilities of recidivism, i.e., conditional probabilities of individuals returning to prison for the jth time given release for the (j-1)st time, to estimate the numbers of prison terms expected to be accumulated by the individuals, is presented. The method is illustrated by calculating the expected numbers of prison terms separately for racial and gender groups in a large data base of Western Australian prisoners. The recidivism probabilities for these data were estimated by fitting Weibull mixture models to the (possibly censored) times to recidivate. The probabilities increase strongly asj increases from 1 to 6, then level off. Large differences between them are due to racial and gender group and these are reflected in the differing expected prison career durations for these groups. The effect of interventions which might lower recidivism is discussed in the light of the method as applied to these estimates.     

PARTICIPATION AND FREQUENCY DURING CRIMINAL CAREERS ACROSS THE LIFE SPAN*

Recent advances and debates surrounding general and developmental as well as static and dynamic theories of crime can be traced to the 1986 National Academy of Science's Report on criminal careers and the discussion it generated. A key point of contention has been regarding the interpretation of the age–crime curve. According to Gottfredson and Hirschi (1986), the decline in the age–crime curve in early adulthood reflects decreasing individual offending frequency (λ) after the peak. Blumstein et al. (1986) claimed that the decline in the aggregate age–crime curve also could be attributable to the termination of criminal careers, and the average value of l could stay constant (or increase with age) for those offenders who remain active after that peak. Using data from the Criminal Career and Life Course Study—including information on criminal convictions across 60 years of almost 5,000 persons convicted in the Netherlands—and applying a two-part growth model that explicitly distinguishes between participation and frequency, the study outlined in this article assessed the participation–frequency debate. Results suggest that the decline in the age–crime curve in early adulthood reflects both decreasing individual offending participation and frequency after the peak, that the probabilities of participation and frequency are significantly related at the individual level, and that sex and marriage influence both participation and frequency.     

刑法不能承受之重——从刑法修正案（八）入手

法律规范是一个有机联系的系统,刑法作为底限性法律规范而存在,一次法调整失灵是刑法适用的必要条件而非充要条件。刑法修正案（八）中规定的拒不支付劳动报酬罪和危险驾驶罪,是在刑法迷信思想的支配下,基于安抚“民意”的目的而进行选择的结果。对于一次法的选择性执法导致的社会秩序失控,选择刑法作为社会秩序控制的首要工具,是刑法不能承受之重;即使是在风险社会中,对“安全刑法”的价值追求也只应使刑法有限地前出。     

Texas Criminal Defense Attorneys’ Perceptions of Crime Victim Involvement in Criminal Prosecutions

The purpose of this study was to test the utility of the Victim Satisfaction Model of the criminal justice system by quantitatively assessing criminal defense attorneys’ perceptions of victims’ involvement in the charging and plea bargaining stages of the criminal process. A cross-section research design was used in this study. Self-administered questionnaires were mailed to defense attorneys who regularly practice criminal law in Texas. The results of this study support the utility of the Victim Satisfaction Model of the criminal justice system and further our understanding of victim involvement in the decision making and have important implications for the American criminal justice system.     

犯罪被害人的经济救济

在打击犯罪和保障人权的双重要求下,犯罪人成为传统刑事政策关注的重点,对犯罪被害人的救济尤其是经济方面的救济被忽略。随着现代刑事政策的发展,人们意识到犯罪被害人地位的提高、权利范围的扩展等也应相应的纳入到刑事政策的视野中,加强对犯罪被害人的经济救济就是其核心内容。以现代刑事政策为出发点,应着力提倡三种主要的犯罪被害人救济方式:犯罪人赔偿、国家补偿以及恢复性司法模式下对犯罪被害人的经济救济,说明对犯罪被害人实行有效的经济救济是一种理想和有效的刑事政策。     

Survival models of recidivism among juvenile delinquents

Among juveniles, the probability of recidivism has a curvilinear relationship to age. Rates of reoffending do not simply increase or decrease with age, but rather, they increase as a function of age up to a certain point of peak activity and decrease with increasing age thereafter. Because of this, the forms of recidivism functions between cohorts of widely varying ages will differ considerably. This renders inapplicable one model for the analysis of recidivism rates which assumes proportional hazards (Cox proportional hazards regression models). Appropriate models will posit curved nonmonotonic hazard functions. This paper compares fits of the exponential, Weibull, and log-normal models to recidivism data collected on samples of chronic juvenile offenders and finds generally closer estimation of the recidivism functions using the latter model. Implications for the development of models of recidivism are discussed.     

The multidimensionality of crime: A comparison of techniques for scaling delinquent careers

The construction of typologies of criminal behavior can benefit from the use of multidimensional analytic methods. Yet while some studies have applied such techniques to crime data (e.g., Shortet al, 1963; Nutch and Bloombaum, 1968; Chaiken and Chaiken, 1982), few have examined the assumptions of these methods as they apply to arrest histories. We argue that arrest histories represent a special form of data that are not ideally suited to standard multidimensional analyses. An examination of the different theoretical assumptions of factor analysis, multidimensional scaling, and variance centroid scaling (a form of correspondence analysis) reveals marked difierences in what is being uncovered by the analysis. In general, these claims are supported by an application of each technique to the arrest histories of 767 chronic juvenile delinquents.     

我国刑事责任年龄之检视

刑事责任年龄在中外刑事立法中均有明文规定,由于各国的刑事政策和少年儿童的生长发育情况不同,故刑事责任的起始年龄也有较大差异。我国刑法规定该年龄的起点为14周岁,为了适应犯罪低龄化及未成年人身心发育成熟提前等客观形势,有必要将该年龄适当下调至13周岁。     

犯罪信息管理术语规范化刍议

目前公安工作中使用的《违法犯罪信息管理代码》在一定程度上规范了信息管理工作,提高了息管理工作的实效。但从工作实践看,信息代码中的一些术语已不适应当前形势,造成了犯罪信息管理工作的不便,如：术语本身存在问题或缺陷;定义（对术语的解释性说明）不清或用语错误;在不同的数据元素代码中,相同所指的术语名称前后不一致;信息代码的某些内容与案件实际情况不够吻合等,使犯罪信息在公安工作中的作用受到制约。     

数据安全刑法保护扩张的合理边界

《数据安全法(草案)》的发布是数据安全作为独立法益的立法宣示,基于数据安全对个体利益、公共安全和国家安全的重要价值,刑法有必要将其纳入保护范围。现行刑法对数据安全的保护是通过制裁信息犯罪间接实现的,由于刑法视阈下的信息和数据存在着本质性差异,未来刑法必然要建立新的数据犯罪罪名体系,实现数据安全领域刑法保护的大规模扩张。为了避免刑法扩张演化成违背谦抑性的公权力滥用,必须进行"合边界性审视",确保其不会突破刑法自身的边界。由于数据安全法益自身无法通过"法益原则"实现刑法边界划定功能,有必要引入"广义危害性原则",在数据安全领域的刑法保护扩张之前,划定扩张的合理边界。     

Assessing Stability and Change in Criminal Offending: A Comparison of Random Effects, Semiparametric, and Fixed Effects Modeling Strategies

An important theoretical problem for criminologists is an explanation forthe robust positive correlation between prior and future criminaloffending. Nagin and Paternoster (1991) have suggested that the correlationcould be due to time-stable population differences in the underlyingproneness to commit crimes (population heterogeneity) and/or thecriminogenic effect that crime has on social bonds, conventionalattachments, and the like (state dependence). Because of data andmeasurement limitations, the disentangling of population heterogeneityand state dependence requires that researchers control for unmeasuredpersistent heterogeneity. Frequently, random effects probit models havebeen employed, which, while user-friendly, make a strong parametricassumption that the unobserved heterogeneity in the population follows anormal distribution. Although semiparametric alternatives to the randomeffects probit model have recently appeared in the literature to avoid thisproblem, in this paper we return to reconsider the fully parametric model. Viasimulation evidence, we first show that the random effects probit modelproduces biased estimates as the departure of heterogeneity from normalitybecomes more substantial. Using the 1958 Philadelphia cohort data, we thencompare the results from a random effects probit model with a semiparametricprobit model and a fixed effects logit model that makes no assumptions aboutthe distribution of unobserved heterogeneity. We found that with this dataset all three models converged on the same substantive result—evenafter controlling for unobserved persistent heterogeneity, with models thattreat the unobserved heterogeneity very differently, prior conduct had apronounced effect on subsequent offending. These results are inconsistentwith a model that attributes all of the positive correlation between priorand future offending to differences in criminal propensity. Sinceresearchers will often be completely blind with respect to the tenabilityof the normality assumption, we conclude that different estimationstrategies should be brought to bear on the data.     

企业刑事合规的程序应对

在刑事合规的制度设计中,程序法承载了治理犯罪、保护权利、提升经济效率等多项重要职能。当前,全球范围内企业合规的刑事程序运行呈现出如下发展态势:立案管辖范围扩张,侦(调)查措施更加灵活多样,检察官主导实现多样化的诉讼激励,刑事合规的司法审查逐步加强,律师充分参与刑事合规得到保障。我国刑事合规的理论研究逐步兴起,实践中企业合规试点单位进行了相应的刑事程序改革与探索。随着刑事合规的全面深入发展,我国刑事诉讼程序应从立案、侦查、起诉、审判、辩护等多个环节进行系统、科学改造,以满足企业合规对刑事程序的实质需求。     

Criminal responsibility for two consecutive crimes

Criminal legally responsible for responsibility in Israel his crimes unless the is defined in terms of polarity： all or nothing. An individual is court has determined that he is exculpated from criminal responsibility; there is no diminished criminal responsibility. The authors present a unique case where two expert psychiatrists determined that the accused was culpable for the first crime, rape, but was exculpated from criminal responsibility for the second crime, stabbing, which was committed immediately thereafter. As per the court approved plea bargain, the accused was charged only with rape, and was sentenced to incarceration in the psychiatric ward of the prison. The social significance of the expert psychiatric opinion and the court ruling will be examined in this paper.     

爱滋病病毒携带者的刑事责任能力探析

当某人得知他/她携带爱滋病病毒(阳性)并与他人/她人进行亲密性行为,他/她是否应当对自己的行为承担刑事责任?争论的焦点是对该行为能否犯罪化?由于我国并没有针对该行为进行专门立法,引用我国《刑法》的有关规定对该行为进行处理可能会带来一些认定上的分歧,特别是在被害人同意的情形下,能否要求行为人承担刑事责任?根据我国《刑法》以及《刑法修正案》的相关规定,仍然可以对该行为进行刑事追究并处以刑罚,该行为符合投放危险物质罪或者过失投放危险物质罪的犯罪构成。     

The Quest for Quality in Criminal Justice Education

Criminal justice education has a checkered past, but a potentially very bright future. That past and that future, with the present sandwiched in between, are laid out here. My prime goal is to pose an agenda for teaching and learning about crime, law and justice in the 21st century. This is an agenda that seeks to insure quality, while dramatically expanding the scope and depth of criminal justice education.