新冠疫情下的国际恐怖主义及其应对

2020年,新冠肺炎病毒在世界各地迅速传播,在各国疲于应对新冠肺炎疫情之际,国际恐怖主义非但没有放弃或减少恐怖袭击活动,反而是利用此次疫情,重新部署力量,加大了组织宣传和招募成员的力度,预谋或已经在常住地实施了多起恐怖主义事件.从当前国际恐怖主义的活动现状来分析,新冠肺炎疫情对恐怖主义组织的影响主要表现在:一方面,它在一定程度上对恐怖分子开展活动产生了抑制作用;另一方面,国际恐怖势力反而利用不确定的国际环境开展活动.并且国际恐怖主义还有可能利用这场波及全球的公共卫生事件制造混乱,袭击本已经遭受疫情创伤的国家和地区.整个国际社会需注重研究个人在恐怖主义生成和发展中的作用,了解恐怖组织信奉的意识形态和认识基础,提高国家治理水平,加强反恐领域的国际合作,标本兼治,有效应对"后疫情时代"的国际恐怖主义.     

试析普京政府怎样对付俄罗斯的恐怖主义活动

恐怖主义经过半个多世纪的蔓延,破坏性越来越大。原是恐怖活动“真空”地带的苏联东欧地区,目前恐怖暴力事件也不断发生,俄罗斯已成为新的恐怖活动热点。车臣恐怖势力的猖獗活动、国内魔鬼崇拜邪教的泛滥、高科技恐怖主义的危害都给俄罗斯的社会安全带来了极大的挑战。针对国际恐怖主义威胁度的增加,俄政府尤其是普京执政后的俄政府相继出台了一系列新举措,包括从民族凝聚力、打击力度、军事科研、新闻媒介、外交渠道等方面着手出击,以对抗国际恐怖势力。     

俄罗斯伊斯兰恐怖主义问题

俄罗斯伊斯兰恐怖主义的产生和发展有其特殊的社会和历史文化背景,是一系列因素相互影响的结果,其中包括西亚和中亚伊斯兰教的影响,国际恐怖主义势力的推波助澜和大国在俄罗斯周边地区的竞争,俄罗斯内部特殊的社会经济问题和民族关系问题以及宗教间紧张关系等等。因此,包括俄罗斯、中国在内的国际反恐斗争将是长期和复杂的。削弱恐怖主义意识形态吸引力和消除其得以活动的社会根源有利于彻底打败国际恐怖势力。     

国际恐怖主义对美国及世界经济的影响--以美国"9·11事件"为例

本文分成三个部分,分别阐述以"9·11事件"为例的国际恐怖主义对纽约、美国以至世界经济所带来的重大损失和深刻影响,并透过这个分析,认识国际恐怖主义的危害性和反恐斗争的必要性.     

试论恐怖主义与反恐怖主义

恐怖主义有各种类型,当代恐怖主义发展具有七大特点.恐怖主义是当代国际社会的恶性肿瘤,非动大手术不可.反恐斗争极为艰巨复杂,在反恐斗争中,应注意目标准确、不伤及无辜等问题.     

联合国制裁恐怖主义机制的功能和不足

联合国制裁恐怖主义机制的功能包括约束作用、示范作用、规范作用和服务作用。这些功能推动了恐怖主义制裁的国际合作。由于制裁机制的存在,国际社会形成了一个治理恐怖主义的新模式。然而,成员国的不合作导致上述功能存在以下缺陷:机制的约束作用较弱,示范作用较窄,规范作用有限,服务质量不高。成员国不合作的根源在于制裁机制中的权力分配失衡、国际社会中相互依赖的变化、制裁机制本身的不健全和不透明。要提升未来成员国在国际反恐中的合作和治理效果,各主要国家和联合国应当推动制裁机制的完善,以赢得更广泛的国际合作。     

国际反恐法律机制视域下的上合组织反恐法律机制建设

恐怖主义犯罪已成为世界各国普遍面临的严重威胁,作为一个全球性的问题,对恐怖主义的应对和打击,需要国际社会相互协作,共同努力。为此,联合国以及各区域性国际组织努力推进反恐怖主义合作的法律机制建设。打击恐怖主义、维护地区安全是上海合作组织的重要任务之一,自成立以来,上海合作组织在反恐怖主义法律机制建设方面取得了一系列成果。面对恐怖主义威胁的网络化、本土化、碎片化的新形势,上海合作组织反恐法律机制建设,需要借鉴其他区域性国际组织的成熟经验,结合本地区实际,进一步加以完善。     

中亚"三股恶势力"问题析论

国际恐怖主义、民族分裂主义和宗教极端主义这"三股恶势力"成为中亚国家独立以来最主要的安全威胁.以"乌伊运"为代表的这些邪恶势力打着民族、宗教旗号,在费尔干纳等地频繁制造恐怖暴力事端,以建立政教合一的伊斯兰政权.中亚"三股恶势力"问题的凸现,具有相应的国际背景和社会根源.在多层次的国际安全合作中,上海合作组织遏制"三股恶势力"的努力令人瞩目.近来中亚安全严峻局势表明,彻底铲除这些邪恶势力任重而道远.     

中国的反恐政策:原则、内容与措施

中国长期面临着各种恐怖主义威胁,并且这些恐怖主义威胁的种类和特征在不断发展变化.中国将打击恐怖主义作为保证国家安全的重要内容,一方面通过立法、健全组织机构等加强国内反恐能力,另一方面积极参与双边、多边的国际反恐合作,将其作为有效打击和遏制恐怖主义的必要手段.就未来的发展趋势而言,由于中国社会内部存在的各种矛盾使恐怖主义的根源在短时间内难以消除,以及各国在反恐问题上的不同态度和立场使国际反恐合作复杂化,决定了反恐将是一项长期的任务.     

国际油价上涨对印度经济的影响

从历史上看,国际油价每一次大幅上涨都会对世界经济产生负面影响.本文分析了2004年以来,国际油价上涨对印度经济的影响,以及印度政府的应对措施.虽然印度经济受国际油价影响的绝对程度不大,但相对程度较大.按照目前国际油价的发展趋势,印度经济面临着越来越大的压力,这引起了印度政府的高度重视.油价对印度经济未来的影响有待进一步观察.     

Article 5: Permanent Neutrality in The Tartu Peace Treaty, 1920

The article argues for the need to develop more multicausal accounts of international relations. It uses the Estonian–Russian political crisis over the relocation of the Bronze Soldier monument in 2007 as a case in point, showing how the ideational, material and institutional structures within the wider international society interact. As such, even cases with clear identity-political root causes can benefit from other factors being inserted into the equation when it comes to analysis. The article concludes by arguing that it is only by embracing multicausality that our chances of arriving at fuller and consequently more truthlike accounts of the events out there are improved.     

The 2008 Guinea Conakry coup: Neither inevitable nor inexorable

This article examines the issue of democratic governance in Guinea–Conakry and the impact that international donors had on the political debate in the last years of the Conté regime. Our contention here is that there was and continues to be an evolving pluralism and embryo group of self-defined civil society organisations in both urban and rural Guinea but as a result of the December 2008 military coup opportunities have been lost in the promotion of democratic governance and more pluralistic group dynamics in Guinea. Support for indigenous (and self-defined) civil society groups, including the development of political parties by the international community, is essential to the return to institutionalised governance.     

发达国家在国际话语权建设方面的主要经验

国际话语权的争夺是当今大国博弈的重要方面。中国正在走近世界舞台的中央,面对的是发达国家在国际话语权上的优势。中国要增强自己的国际话语权需要一个过程,在这一进程中,研究和借鉴别国成功的经验十分重要。本文研究和总结了发达国家在国际话语权建设方面的主要经验,认为谋求国际话语权需要以国家实力为基础,但有实力并不就意味着有话语权,还需要注重话语的内容能被国际社会接受,需要通过有效的手段传播这些话语,更需要把舆论性话语转变成制度性话语。     

Domestic–External Linkages and the Cold War in 1953 and 1989: Using International Relations Theory and Comparative Politics to Explain the End of the Cold War

Drawing on theories of international relations (IR) and comparative politics, this article explains why the cold war ended in 1989 rather than 1953. Numerous scholars have used IR theory to discuss the end of the cold war, but most of the circumstances they highlight were also present in the spring of 1953, right after the death of Joseph Stalin. This article presents three broad theoretical approaches that deal with the connection between domestic politics and international relations, and it then shows how these approaches can help us understand the similarities and differences between 1953 and 1989. In particular, the article emphasises the importance of time. In the spring of 1953, the window of opportunity was very brief—only a few months, which was insufficient for the two main cold war antagonists to overcome their deeply entrenched suspicions and make far-reaching adjustments in their policies. In the latter half of the 1980s, by contrast, the sweeping reorientation of east–west relations occurred over several years, giving policy-makers on both sides sufficient leeway to adapt and to 'learn' new ways of interacting.     

Liberal International Theory and Imagining the End of the Cold War

Liberal international theory foresaw neither the end of the east–west rivalry nor the fall of the Soviet Union. However, from the 1960s up through the 1980s, several liberal international theorists put forward insightful analyses of the evolution of the cold war, its changing importance in world affairs and the problems that increasingly confronted the Soviet Union. Well before the fall of the Berlin Wall, several liberal international writers sensed that the cold war was abating, that this abatement was important for world politics and that the Soviet Union was having serious problems in maintaining its status as a superpower with an Eastern European empire.     

现代系统论视野下的国际政治理论

本文拟以广义系统论一般模式的构造为基础,从国际政治体系的结构和层次、国际政治体系的功能和环境、国际政治体系的稳衡和变革四个方面,对20世纪70年代以来国际关系思想史中的主要理论,加以梳理、比较和分析,进而揭示系统论对国际政治理论研究所产生的巨大影响,并彰显诸理论之间的区别和联系.最终,希望通过对科学知识之间的渗透交叉与相互借鉴关系的辨明,能够在更广阔和深远的背景下建构中国的国际关系理论研究体系.     

African states in international organisations: A comparative analysis

The active participation in international organisations (IOs) is an important condition for the ability of states to exert influence over the content of international norms and rules. Thus, this paper adopts a comparative perspective and examines how active African states are in more than 500 international negotiations and under what conditions they are likely to remain silent. This reveals that diplomatic staff capacities are an essential precondition for active participation, while incentive structures, such as the scope of interests, impact how often states take the floor. An alternative to voicing national interest is to negotiate on behalf of regional organisations or regional groups. This paper shows that especially weaker and smaller African states benefit from regional group membership and use references to them in order to increase their leverage in international negotiations and improve, thereby, their chances to exert influence over the international architecture of rules and norms.     

Jihad: a South African perspective

The India, Brazil and South Africa Dialogue Forum (IBSA) established in 2003 brings together three like-minded, democratic, market economies of multi-cultural and multi-ethnic character, sharing a broadly similar economic, political and development situation. At the time of its formation IBSA was widely regarded as representing a novel form of South-South cooperation, transcending older models rooted in the logic of North-South confrontation in the post-colonial, Cold War world. However, now, as the respective countries prepare for their tenth anniversary summit in India, the forum seems to face a growing sense of irrelevance, perhaps even an existential crisis. There has been a proliferation of other forums—notably BRICS and the G20—which means that IBSA needs to differentiate itself if it is to endure. This paper suggests a common vision for IBSA, based on the concept of international liberalism, implying an open international market, well-regulated capital markets and tailored domestic policies such as social policy, health policy and education policy, may well increase the weight IBSA can gain in different international forums.     

Paradoxes of internationalisation of the Anglophone problem in Cameroon

Historically it is not strange that the Anglophone elites in Cameroon took their case to the international community, since this was a strategy that they employed during the British colonial period. A number of petitions and constant visits were made to the United Nations (UN) by Anglophone elites concerning British neglect of their territory. These petitions were made in the form of presentations before the United Nations in New York or whenever there was a visiting UN mission to the trust territory. Nonetheless, since the early 1990s, the pattern of petitions has changed drastically. Petitions against the new state are different from those earlier petitions against colonialism. The aim of the petitions against the new state has been to draw the attention of the UN and the international community to the injustices inflicted upon minority English-speaking Cameroonians by the ruling government. The Anglophone elites believe that, by making their plight known to the international community, the latter might intervene to restore the statehood of Southern Cameroons.     

Boko Haram terrorism in Nigeria: The international dimension

The terrorist group Boko Haram, or the self-described People of the Tradition of the Prophet (SAW) for Preaching and Striving, continues to terrorise Nigeria, with horrible consequences. Clearly, study of the problem cannot be disconnected from the complex nature of Boko Haram itself, considering the group's unclear agenda and its shadowy sponsors — internal or external. A key question regarding the nature of Boko Haram is whether it has a transnational dimension or not. This paper examines the nature of Boko Haram terrorism in Nigeria. It argues that Boko Haram's terrorism does indeed have a transnational dimension, demonstrating that its agenda and targets transcend Nigeria, and that there are international links to the operations of Boko Haram. Given this international dimension, what concerns does Boko Haram generate for countries outside Nigeria, and what are their responses to the group's continued acts of terrorism? This analysis is contextualised within the charged debate on the definition of terrorism and the modern trend of religious terrorism in the international arena.