The Political Cost-Effectiveness of Private Vessel Protection: The Italian Case

Italy has traditionally been wary of private providers of security. Still, private military and security companies (PMSCs) have recently started to play an important role in protecting Italian merchant vessels, eventually replacing the military vessel protection detachment units (VPDs) provided by the Italian Navy. Drawing on neoclassical realism, the increasing involvement of PMSCs in protecting Italian merchant ships is presented as an attempt to reduce the political costs associated with the use of military personnel abroad, epitomised by the arrest of two Italian Navy fusiliers by Indian authorities in February 2012.     

军事干预需求、规范敏感性与大国海外安全市场化发展模式

冷战后,私营军事安保公司在大国普遍出现,但是这些国家安全市场化的发展模式有所不同。有些大国采取作战型模式,一些大国属于安保型模式,也有大国从作战型模式转为军事辅助型模式。作者以海外军事干预需求和规范敏感性为变量,搭建大国海外安全市场化发展模式的解释框架,着重讨论国家和公司的关系。当海外军事干预需求强、规范敏感性低时,大国出现作战型发展模式;当海外军事干预需求强、规范敏感性高时,大国采取军事辅助型模式;当海外军事干预需求弱、规范敏感性高时,大国出现安保型模式。世界主要大国海外安全市场化的发展经验证实了上述假设。英国和美国的案例比较分别验证了大国的作战型模式和军事辅助型模式的成因,而印度和日本的案例论证了安保型模式产生的逻辑。当前,中国加强海外利益保护的需求日益迫切,讨论大国海外安全市场化的发展,对中国借助市场化手段保障海外利益安全也有一定的启发。     

私人安保公司：东南亚海上安全治理的新主体

近年来,东南亚海上私人安保公司悄然兴起。其参与东南亚海上安全治理是海上安全环境的变化、海上安全供给与需求的鸿沟、东南亚民主化进程及安全部门改革所共同驱动的结果。海峡和港口是私人安保公司重点参与的治理区域,在马六甲海峡,尽管私人安保公司挑战了国家主权,但其能有效应对海上安全威胁,在短期内已得到国家“默许”;而印尼勿拉湾港口是一种多主体参与治理的安全系统,私人安保公司与其他行为体竞争,反而导致港口不安全。相比较而言,私人安保公司在海峡和港口安全治理中具有隐秘性强、与国家关系复杂、规制难及趋利性等共性;而不同的参与模式与作用则反映了二者的差异性。当前,中国要进一步挖掘海上私人安保的潜力,并做好相应的规制;要重视利用私人安保公司在海峡和港口安全治理中的共性与差异,鼓励中国与东南亚私人安保公司发展战略合作,保护中国海外利益。     

吉林省证券业发展对策研究——基于“十一五”期间数据

"十一五"以来,吉林省证券业试图壮大上市公司队伍,通过买壳、借壳等多种方式扩大直接融资的规模。但由于各种原因,辖区上市公司数量不但没有增加,反而减少。与国内发达省区比较依然存在一些差距。针对吉林省证券业现状出现的问题,应加快培养本地综合类券商或引进综合类券商推进重组工作、提高上市公司再融资能力、加快培育上市公司后续资源、力争长春高新技术产业开发区进入代办股份转让系统等对策。     

印度与东盟军事与安全合作试析

印度与东盟的军事与安全合作日趋频繁，合作层次不断提高，印度在东南亚地区的军事影响力正在逐年增强。但由于印度自身的政治、经济和军事实力仍然有限，印度与东盟军事、安全合作存在许多制约因素。     

Reviving the Russian empire: the Crimean intervention through a neoclassical realist lens

Although many policy-makers and scholars maintain that international norms have altered the motivations underlying state behaviour, this article argues that states continue to pursue national self-interest, but in ways that remain understudied. While traditional realist assumptions explain a great deal of state behaviour, they have not been widely used to account for important alternative tools of state intervention, such as economic and normative strategies. Focusing on the case of Russia's 2014 intervention in Ukraine, this article offers insights into how, and under what circumstances, these tools are used to accomplish traditional state objectives. Guided by the tenets of neoclassical realism, the article argues that in the case of Russia, military force is no longer the sole, or even the primary, means used to accomplish traditional security goals. Such dynamics have significant theoretical and policy implications for contemporary international relations.     

“一带一路”安全保障体系构建中的私营安保公司研究

国际私营安保市场已形成政府、国际组织、产业和社会代表多方参与的国际治理架构。中国海外利益维护的安全产品市场化结构比较单一,提供主体主要是国家政府,这种“唯一性”致使“发展中国家式”的国际安全领域产业基础供给与“发达国家式”的海外安全需求间存在严重的结构失衡。目前,中国私营安保服务公司面临安保服务频次急剧增加、安保服务对象越来越多元、安保服务内容日趋专业等较好发展机遇;但同时由于中国安保服务公司成立时间较晚,也存在一些发展上的问题。“一带一路”建设需要多元化的安全保障体系,既要外交保护、领事保护、执法保护;同时也需要私营安保公司等非国家行为体力量的支持参与。要在坚持总体国家安全观的基础上,站在全球治理的高度理解和设计中国海外私营安保的发展,遵从私营安全领域的国际运行规则,着力推动中国海外安全保护治理体系结构的顶层设计,加快境外安保市场化改革步伐,逐步形成政府主导、市场企业参与、社会民间促进的立体格局。构建“一带一路”安保体系,可重点根据中国海外利益保护的特点、,丰富方式,充分发挥私营安保公司在风险评估、情报支持、后勤支援、现场保护、安全培训、战略咨询与设计、紧急撤退和紧急医疗服务等方面的作用,构建全方位多元化的安全保障体系。     

Anti-Americanism in Electoral Politics: Insights from South Korea's 2002 Presidential Election

Since September 11, 2001, anti-Americanism has emerged as an important issue in international politics. In democratic election campaigns, anti-Americanism should be an attractive issue where it is expected to have a favorable impact on key swing vote constituencies. Anti-Americanism has certain inherent ideological appeals and more varied historically-based attractions. Anti-Americanism should be least attractive where countries continue to rely on U.S. security guarantees. South Korea's December 2002 presidential election, in which winner Roh Moo-hyun openly sympathized with anti-American demonstrators, appears to contradict this expectation. Yet closer analysis of individual-level polling data shows that anti-Americanism was, both statistically and substantively, much less significant than alternative campaign issues. By activating the numerous voters hostile to the North Korean regime, anti-Americanism actually hurt the victor's electoral chances. The approach appears useful in understanding why anti-Americanism is a more prominent ideology and electoral issue in some regions, such as Western Europe and Latin America, and a less prominent one in others, for example Eastern Europe, East Asia, and Oceania.     

先秦时期国家安全思想述论

尽管先秦时期没有出现“国家安全”这样的术语,但是随着中国早期国家结构与天下秩序的逐步形成和完善,先秦时期的国家安全思想也已经初具雏形。政治安全思想可以概括为居安思危,有备无患;敬天保民,明德慎罚;正名奉法,殊途同归;以内驭外,召远修近。经济安全思想可以概括为富民利民,恒产安国;重农抑商,务本利国;开源节流,裕民足国。军事安全思想可以概括为重视国防,强化军备;用兵有道,谋略制胜;文武结合,法纪强军。社会安全思想可以概括为民为邦本,本固邦宁;敦行教化,家国和谐;储粮备荒,稳定社会。先秦时期的国家安全思想既具有鲜明的时代特色,也具有鲜明的中国特色,其基本特点大致可概括为天人合一,敬天重民;内外兼备,家国并重;以德为尊,以和为贵;战争如疾,谋略至上。先秦时期的国家安全思想奠定了中国此后两千多年来国家安全思想的基调,其中有不少内容具有超越时空的价值,对进一步丰富和完善新时代总体国家安全观的内涵,构建具有中国特色的国家安全理论体系,具有重要的现实意义。     

The "Essential Domino" of Military Operations: American Public Opinion and the Use of Force

It is a commonly held belief that the foreign policy issue to which the American public is most sensitive is the use of military force. Because American public opinion regarding the use of force is highly palpable, salient, and organized, and because decisions regarding the use of force are some of the most important decisions the nation ever has to consider, the analysis of public opinion regarding military involvement is academically significant and policy relevant. The indication from policymakers is that American military operations require public support. As a result, scholars and analysts have come to realize that public opinion is the "essential domino" of military operations. The relationship between mass American public opinion and the use of military force has become, therefore, the focus of numerous studies and surveys. There are currently several competing explanations—schools of thought—in the literature on why the mass public supports the use of force. This article is an attempt to identify the most prominent schools of thought on public opinion and the use of force, and the central factors associated with each school. Such a review is important to generating policy–relevant guidance pertaining to public opinion and the use of force—an objective made more pressing by the current war against terrorism.     

Fit for what? Towards explaining Battlegroup inaction

Abstract

The thrust of this paper concerns the case of the European Battlegroup (BG) non-deployment in late 2008, when the United Nations requested European military support for the United Nations Organisation Mission peacekeeping force in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). The argument is built on the fact that when, in official documents, the EU approaches the European security and ESDP/CSDP's military crisis management policy and interventions, it makes strong references to the United Nations and the UN Charter Chapter VII's mandate of restoring international peace and security. Such references make it seem that supporting the UN when it deals with threats and crises is a primary concern of the EU and the member states. These allusions lead to the main contention of this paper, that there is much ambivalence in these indications. The paper develops its argument from one key hypothesis; namely, that the non-deployment of a European BG in the DRC, at the end of 2008, constitutes a useful case study for detecting a number of ambiguities of the EU in respect of its declarations in the official documents establishing the European military crisis management intervention structure.     

The military dimension of Russia’s connection with Europe

The Russian challenge to the European security system is internal rather than external, because despite all the political efforts at distancing Russia from Europe, the indivisibility remains undiminished. The underlying assumption for Russia’s course is that the West is in irreversible decline, and the conclusion about the dissolution of the West-controlled world order is established in the key doctrinal documents. Instead of passively waiting for this meltdown to develop, it makes perfect sense for the Russian leadership to accelerate it pro-actively, using various levers, including military force. Moscow acts on the assumption that its “unconventional” methods could yield results only if augmented by military threats, against which the Europeans cannot master convincing counter-argument. The imperative to sustain and update credibility of these threats necessitates allocation of greater share of available resources to military build-up, which clashes with economic rationale of reducing this burden in the situation of protracted stagnation.     

Military doctrine and intelligence fusion in the American homeland

Although a plethora of research has examined US efforts to combat terrorism both at home and abroad, very few scholars have investigated the unprecedented relationships among US national security institutions and urban law enforcement agencies that have emerged since the events of 9/11. Through evidence culled from semi-structured interviews with 28 security planners in Washington DC and New York City, this article explains how path dependence, isomorphism and diffusion are propagating the application of military doctrine within domestic security initiatives through ‘intelligence fusion’. With particular attention to the Lower Manhattan Security Initiative, this investigation builds upon a body of work that has emerged in recent years by charting the institutional and technological architectures that are driving the deployment of paramilitary tactics and surveillance systems in cities.     

“9·11”后的俄罗斯军事安全战略实践探索

“9.11”事件后,俄罗斯军方针对世界安全形势发生的新变化,对其军事安全战略实践从四大方面做出重大调整,即:研发新一代核武器,确保“现实遏制”的核战略;加速武器装备现代化建设进程;增加学习,提高军队作战指挥能力;加强独联体军事一体化,加强与周边大国的军事交流。但俄罗斯军事安全战略实践调整成功与否最终将取决于俄罗斯综合国力的变化。围绕国际政治问题的外交斗争是以军事力量的强弱决定着胜败。从目前来看,实现俄罗斯的战略目标,既有不少有利条件,也存在现实困难,俄罗斯在实现其军事安全目标的道路上不会一帆风顺。     

俄罗斯与中亚国家安全合作机制分析

安全合作是俄罗斯与中亚国家关系的关键性领域,对中亚地区安全态势及发展趋势具有关键意义。俄罗斯与中亚国家借助双边及多边安全制度,构建了军事同盟体系,并形成了完备的组织机构和决策模式。俄罗斯与中亚在共同使用军事设施、军事技术合作、联合军事演习和军事人才培养等方面展开具体的安全合作。俄罗斯与中亚国家安全合作机制的有效性受到权力结构、合法性与国内政治等因素的制约,其未来有可能向更为紧密的方向发展,对中亚地区安全发挥着长期的主导性作用。     

国家安全学理论视角下的西周国家安全思想研究

西周是中国早期国家的典型,探究西周国家安全思想对于丰富国家安全学科思想内涵、完善国家安全学理论体系、推动建设中国特色哲学社会科学有重大的理论价值与现实意义。国家安全学是一门整体性、综合性的实用型学科,从国家安全学理论视角出发研究西周国家安全思想,不仅能为中国古代安全思想史研究提供补充,也有助于为国家现实安全战略的制定提供思想资源。影响西周国家安全的要素涵盖自然与社会两大领域,包括地理位置、人口构成、土地制度、政治制度和社会制度。在对这几方面的认识基础之上,西周形成了以政治安全、军事安全和社会安全为核心的国家安全思想。政治安全思想包括“崇拜天神、祭祀祖先”,“礼以定序、乐以观和”;军事安全思想包括“以礼制戎、除恶务尽”,“统筹全局、重点部署”;社会安全思想包括“神道设教、伦常为纲”,“阴阳和谐、天下大同”。这些思想同属于一个整体的、相互联系的国家安全思想系统,丰富了总体国家安全观的理论内涵。     

统筹发展和安全中的“民参军”

促进发展和维护安全是世界各国追求的两项重要目标,而技术的军民融合则是连接发展和安全的重要纽带。二战后,苏联、日本与美国的军民融合实践,分别代表了“旋转耗散”“旋转上升”“旋转下降”以及“旋转环绕”四种大国技术发展模式。这四种模式的不同成效表明,要成功地实现军民技术融合,统筹发展和安全,关键在于“民参军”。“民参军”为军用技术提供了负反馈的制约、互补能力的积累以及持续的资金来源。苏联的困境在于缺乏“民参军”,大量军用技术难以外溢到民用部门,最终导致军用部门也缺乏持续的资金支持。日本的经验是技术从民用部门扩散到军用部门,民用部门推动了军民两用技术的发展。20世纪80年代前的美国,服务安全的军用技术逐步外溢到服务发展的民用部门;在此之后,军用技术与民用技术相互渗透,交叉影响。二战后大国技术的发展模式及军民技术融合的成败为中国推动军民融合、统筹发展和安全提供了重要借鉴。     

1946-49年国民政府对侨批局的政策

1946-1949年,南京国民政府采取各种政策,企图大力吸收侨汇,加强对侨汇的控制,以巩固国民党政权,进行内战。在这一阶段,国民政府一方面改善自身的侨汇经营,一方面极力打击侨汇黑市以解决侨汇流失问题,对于侨批局采取既限制,又利用的政策。但是由于官营行局的先天不足,始终无法替代民间侨批局,加上为从事内战而开支巨额军费,导致全国出现恶性通货膨胀,侨汇大量进入黑市而无法控制,最终导致政策的失败。