Geopolitical pluralism in the CIS: The emergence of GUUAM

This article argues that the 12 states of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) are evenly divided into two groups that are grouped around Russia and Ukraine. The emergence of these two groups, one of which is decidely pro‐Western and pro NATO ‐GUUAM (Georgia, Ukraine, Uzbekistan, Azerbaijan, Moldova) ‐is a sign of what Brzezinski defined as early as 1994 as geopolitical pluralism has finally emerged in the former USSR. US policy, he argued, should be the consolidation of this geopolitical pluralism within the former Soviet Union as the means by which a non‐imperial, ‘normal’ Russian nation‐state would emerge with whom a ‘genuine American‐Russian partnership’ could be secured. Brzezinski signalled that Ukraine was the key state that prevented the revival of a new Russian empire and therefore aided the consolidation of Russian democracy. One could add that GUUAM, as an organization led by Ukraine, should also therefore play a central role in US and Western policy towards the former USSR.     

The geopolitics of climate change: power transitions,conflict and the future of military activities

Climate change is emerging as one of the primary geopolitical challenges of the early twenty-first century, one that will likely involve military engagements and deployments in both traditional and non-traditional missions. Unlike mass casualty terrorism, climate change does not have a single galvanising event that can encourage collective mitigation efforts by both developed and developing states. International efforts to counter putative climate change causes have, thus far, been only marginally successful. Consequently, some of the more pernicious effects of climate change—extreme weather, heat waves, droughts and floods—will likely continue to manifest in the years and decades ahead. From a geopolitical perspective, climate change may influence the trajectory of rising or declining states in an increasingly multipolar world. It may also induce or exacerbate resource competition between states, particularly with regard to energy resources, water and food. Climate change may also exert a general weakening effect on lesser developed countries, thus necessitating increasingly intrusive and costly humanitarian assistance and disaster response (HADR) missions, some of which may be conducted by military agencies. Overall, these trends suggest that climate change will continue to emerge as a significant factor that shapes and defines future military missions and deployments.     

独联体国家的社会主义运动评析

苏东剧变之后独联体地区重建和新建了一些以社会主义为方向的共产党和组织,由于国内外各方面条件的限制和自身组织内部的问题,社会主义运动面临着严峻挑战。在新的历史条件下,这一地区的共产党组织进行了深刻反思,确立了奋斗目标,调整了政策主张,制定了灵活的策略方针,正在进行着艰难的探索。本文试对俄罗斯之外的独联体国家的社会主义运动进行评析。     

乌克兰与独联体经济一体化

经济全球化、区域经济一体化是当今世界经济的主要发展趋势。为适应新形势,迎接全球化、一体化的挑战,乌克兰将加深与独联体各国的经济一体化。2003年9月即将成立的独联体自由贸易区和乌克兰、俄罗斯、白俄罗斯和哈萨克斯坦“统一经济空间”是乌克兰参与独联体经济一体化的首选方式。本文以区域经济一体化的理论为基础,简要回顾独联体经济一体化的发展历程,分析乌克兰与俄罗斯、白俄罗斯和哈萨克斯坦建立“统一经济空间”的现实性及前景,并对未来发展趋势作出展望和判断,指出:乌克兰与独联体经济一体化的成功与否将主要取决于乌克兰对外关系的总体走向,建立乌克兰、俄罗斯、白俄罗斯和哈萨克斯坦“统一经济空间”是乌克兰在“融入欧洲”战略步履维艰情况下做出的加深与“东方”国家全面合作的一部分,是乌克兰在未来一个时期内摆脱经济危机、融入世界经济体系的重要途径。     

The revision of Russian military policy and the military industrial complex

The authority of the: Security Council under chapter VII of the UN Charter : legal limits and the role of the International Court of Justice / by David Schweigman. ‐ The Hague : Kluwer Law International, c2001. ‐ xviii, 354 p. ‐ (Studies and material on the settlement of international disputes ;‐ 8). ‐ISBN 90–411–11641–9

The Bush administration (1989–1993) and the development of a European security identity / Sophie Vanhoonacker. ‐ Aldershot: Ashgate, c2001. ‐ xiv, 269 p. ‐ ISBN 0–7546–1664–9

The Europeanisation of national foreign policy : Dutch, Danish and Irish foreign policy in the European Union / Ben Tonra.‐ Aldershot: Ashgate, c2001. ‐ viii, 305 p. ‐ ISBN 0–7546–1261–9

Germany as a civilian power? The foreign policy of the Berlin Republic / edited by Sebastian Harnisch and Hanns W. Maull. ‐ Manchester : Manchester University Press, c2001. ‐ xii, 179 p. ‐(Issues in German politics. ‐ ISBN 0–7190–6042–7 (pbk)

Hague yearbook of international law / Association of Attenders and Alumni of the Hague. Academy of International Law = Annuaire de La Haye de droit international / Association des auditeurs et anciens auditeurs de l'Academie de droit international de La Haye. ‐ The Hague : M. Nijhoff Publishers, c2001. ‐ xxii, 315 p. ‐ ISBN 90–411–1666–4

The international politics of East Africa / Robert Pinkney. ‐ Manchester : Manchester University Press, c2001. ‐ xii, 242 p. ‐ISBN 0–7190–5616–0 (pbk)

South Africa's multilateral diplomacy and global change : the limits of reformism / edited by Philip Nel, Ian Taylor, Janis Van der Westhuizen. ‐ Aldershot : Ashgate, c2001. ‐ xii, 155 p. ‐ (The international political economy of new regionalisms series). ‐ ISBN 0–7546–1653–3

The law of arms control international supervision and enforcement / Guido Den Dekker. ‐The Hague : Martinus Nijhoff Publishers, c2001. ‐ xviii, 404 p. ‐(Developments in international law ; 41).‐ISBN90–411–1624–9

The reform process of the United Nations peace operations debriefing and lessons : report of the 2001 Singapore Conference / The United Nations Institute for Training and Research (UNITAR, The Institute of Policy Studies (IPS) of Singapore and the Japan Institute of International Affairs (JIIA) ; prepared under the direction of Nassrine Azimi and Chang Lil Lin eds. ‐ The Hague : Kluwer Law International, c2001. ‐ ISBN 90–411–1699–0

Reforming the United Nations‐, the Quiet Revolution / edited by Joachim Müller. ‐The Hague : Kluwer, c2001. ‐ xxii, 946 p.‐ISBN 90–411–1644–3

Regulatory reforms in Italy : a case study of Europeanisation / Dieter Kerwer. ‐Aldershot : Ashgate, c2001. ‐ viii, 224 p.‐ISBN 0–7546–1690–8

Religious minorities, nation states and security: five cases from the Balkans and the Eastern Mediterranean / Mario Apostolov. ‐Aldershot.‐ Ashgate, c2001. ‐ x, 196 p. ‐ ISBN 0–7546–1677–0

Terrorism and democratic stability /Jennifer S. Holmes. ‐ Manchester : Manchester University Press, c2001. ‐ xiv, 241 p. ‐ (Perspectives on democratization). ‐ISBN 0–7190–5959–3

To prevail: an American strategy for the campaign against terrorism / Kurt M. Campbell and Michèle A. Flournoy. ‐Washington, D.C. : The CSIS Press, C2001. ‐ XIV, 399 p. ‐ ISBN 0–89206–407–2

United Nations sanctions and international law / edited by Vera Gowlland‐Debbas. ‐The Hague : Kluwer Law International, c2001. ‐ xiv, 408 p. ‐ (The Graduate Institute of International Studies ; 1). ‐ISBN 90–411–1603–6

United States economic sanctions: theory and practice / by Michael P. Malloy. ‐ The Hague : Kluwer Law International, c2001. ‐ xxvi, 738 p. ‐ ISBN 90–4118–861–4     

俄罗斯的独联体政策及其走势

独联体对俄罗斯而言,具有战略屏障和战略借重的双重作用,也是俄国家振兴的依托条件之一。但因俄独联体政策有诸多失当、新独立国家自主意识增强,以及美国和西方采取诱压结合的方式分化独联体,目前独联体处于四分五裂中,俄与独联体其他成员国间关系总体呈纷争多于合作态势。经历了各式“颜色革命”的独联体未来内部矛盾还将扩大,俄与美国及西方在争夺后苏联战略空间的较量中谁是最后的赢家,尚需观察。     

"Color Revolutions" and CIS Trend

After "Rose Revolution" in Georgia in 2003 and "Orange Revolution" in Ukraine that overthrew the Shevardnadze and Kuchma regimes, "Color Revolutions" took place in Kyrgyzstan with Akayev regime suddenly collapsed in March 2005. After the series of "Color Revolutions," Georgia and Ukraine still serve as the democratic pioneers in the CIS. The contradictions arisen thereof will become more prominent within the CIS. Russia's prestige might continue to fall.The CIS has a dim future.     

俄格冲突与俄罗斯独联体政策的未来

俄格军事冲突是冷战后俄格矛盾的一次释放.透过这一事件,独联体建设的诸多问题凸显出来.独联体未来的命运成为人们关注的焦点,俄罗斯未来政策的转变将对此起决定性作用.为了使独联体这一组织形式更具吸引力和更具效力,俄罗斯有必要改变其对独联体国家关系的行为方式,加强独联体组织功能建设,健全联合治理机制,提供更多的公共物品,承担力所能及的责任.唯有如此,独联体组织机制的功能才会被激活,并最终有利于俄罗斯国家实力的全面提升.     

独联体经济一体化十年评析

独联体经济一体化已经走过10年的历程.在经济全球化和地区化蓬勃发展的大背景下,独联体的经济一体化似乎是一个逆向发展的进程:虽然经济一体化的基本方向早已确定,但"独"与"联"始终是它的一对基本矛盾,迄今为止,独联体经济一体化未能取得预想的成果.目前独联体经济一体化仍存在深化的内在机制,外部的合作尚无法取代内部的合作,在独联体框架内各成员国进行经济合作的必然性将长期存在,但那种力图在最短时间内按照市场规则在新的基础上重塑各国经济关系的做法已被证明是不现实的.在可预见的未来,仍将是核心国家的深化和总体一体化相结合,双边合作仍被视为比多边一体化更为有效,微观一体化将比宏观一体化更为广泛采纳,形成多水平、多速度的"多层一体化"局面.     

独联体以及影响其走向的内部因素分析

本文主要通过对近年来发生在独联体的重大事件和活动的分析,从内部影响因素的角度出发,预测独联体的未来走向。本文认为,作为区域组织的独联体,由于其成员国缺乏必要的区域意识,正出现分裂趋势;出于国家对外战略的需要,在对独联体现状进行反思后,俄罗斯决定确定新的战略,开展以经济、安全利益为核心的一体化活动,为区域政治一体化重打基础。在上述因素的共同作用下,独联体未来走向的最大可能,是在保有独联体的名义下,成员国各取所需,参加其中的经济或安全组织,呈现“速度各异、层次不同的一体化”局面。     

独联体内部冒出新山头

今年5月22-23日,由乌克兰、格鲁吉亚、摩尔多瓦、阿塞拜疆4国组建的"古阿姆"组织在乌克兰首都基辅召开首脑会议,决定将"古阿姆"由非正式地区组织提升为国际性组织,并更名为"古阿姆民主与经济发展组织".这一组织的成立表明独联体内部新的山头形成,分裂趋势进一步加强.     

"色彩革命"与独联体未来走势

"色彩革命"是继苏联解体后原苏联国家确立新国家身份的延续.如果说苏联解体解决了这些国家"离开谁"的问题,那么"色彩革命"将解决"靠近谁"的问题.当前,独联体国家发生"色彩革命"的可能性依然存在,格鲁吉亚和乌克兰酝酿成立"民主选择联盟","古阿姆联盟"欲东山再起.俄罗斯维系独联体的手段有限、政策有误,独联体未来发展将面临一系列严峻挑战.     

"古阿姆"集团的演变及其对独联体的影响

"古阿姆"集团是独联体框架内以乌克兰为首且横跨独联体三个地域(中亚、高加索、欧洲地区)的地区组织.该组织曾一度偃旗息鼓,但自独联体发生"颜色"革命以来,在美国的扶持下重整旗鼓,并于2006年5月23日更名为"民主和经济发展组织--古阿姆".该集团的重新崛起加速了独联体地区的地缘政治分化进程和经济非一体化进程,并催生俄罗斯新的独联体政策.     

"颜色革命"对独联体的冲击和影响

“颜色革命”除了给相关国家政局造成不稳定外,还给整个独联体带来冲击。它动摇了独联体的生存根基,加剧了俄美在该地区的争夺,从而使地区局势产生动荡。由于历史上形成的独联体成员国之间难以割断的经济联系、相互依赖的政治与安全关系以及共同的文化价值观念等因素,独联体仍有生存的基础。