强势崛起、金融危机与俄罗斯对外政策的调整

2008年,俄格冲突和金融危机对俄罗斯对外政策产生,了实质性的影响。俄格冲突体现了俄罗斯的强势崛起,表明实力复苏的俄罗斯坚决捍卫国家核心利益的决心;金融危机则对俄罗斯带来了多方位的冲击,暴露出俄罗斯复兴进程的脆弱性与不确定性。俄罗斯就是在俄格冲突之际的冲动和亢奋与金融危机时的无奈与失落之间度过2008年的。这种落差体现了俄罗斯内政、经济与外交之间的密切关联,展现了俄罗斯对外战略中的内在矛盾,也影响着俄罗斯对外政策的调整。     

Responding to Systemic Crisis: The Case of Agroterrorism

The post–11 September security environment has led to a reevaluation of the nature of national security and national security systems. Bioterrorism in the form of attacks against the agricultural sector, particularly in the form of foot-and-mouth disease, could prove attractive to some groups should other targets and means of attack become more difficult. This article considers three cases, one of bioterrorism and two of agricultural disease outbreaks. Using complex adaptive system principles it suggests a strategy and socio-technical system design, adaptive hardening, appropriate to the challenge posed by terrorist-induced foot-and-mouth disease.     

A Response to Fiscal Stress: Public Sector Employment Reduction across States during a Budget Crisis

This paper incorporates measurements of the four financial condition dimensions of cash, budget, long-run, and service solvency to explore the link between financial condition and public sector employment among states in the context of the Great Recession of 2008–2009. The finding is that the severity of this economic recession led states to reduce public workers as one type of fiscal response to cope with budget shortfalls. The results suggest that not all dimensions of state financial condition affect public sector employment.     

The dual logic of Russia's party system nationalization

The article attempts to identify major factors of the nationalization of the vote in contemporary Russia using the two level approach: the between- and within-region. The former compares regions as units of analysis while the latter additionally takes into account voting in municipalities to obtain levels of voting homogeneity within the regions. The study uses data from the last 2012–2016 national-regional electoral cycle investigating both federal and regional election results. Following Ishiyama (2002) for the between-region level of analysis the Regional Party Vote Inequality index has been utilized. The Party Nationalization Score proposed by Jones and Mainwaring (2003) has been applied to the measurement of voting territorial diversity at the within-region level. The results show that regional political factors may be still considered as major drivers of the nationalization of the vote as it did in the 1990s. The difference is that in politically recentralized Russia non-competitive regions headed by politically strong governors provides between-region inequality rather than contributing to nationalization. At the same time, the similarity continues in the ability of governors’ “political machines” to contribute homogeneity of the vote, but only within their regions.     

The Politics of Dominant Party Formation: United Russia and Russia's Governors

This article analyses the emergence of United Russia (Edinaya Rossiya) as a dominant party by examining the behaviour of Russia's governors. Using original data on when governors joined United Russia, the article demonstrates that those governors with access to autonomous political resources were more reluctant to join the dominant party. By showing that Russian elite members made their affiliation decisions on the basis of calculations about their own political resources rather than simply being coerced by the Kremlin, this article provides evidence for a theory of dominant party formation that casts the problem as a two-sided commitment problem between leaders and elites.     

The Determinants of the Success of Transitions to Democracy

The article provides an analysis of the determinants of the success of transitions to democracy based on a combination of qualitative comparative analysis of Poland, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary, Slovenia, Croatia, Bosnia & Herzegovina, Serbia, Montenegro and Macedonia; and hierarchical clustering. The key finding is that one can reveal configurations of several factors which jointly determine either continuous or disrupted transitions to democracy.     

Collective action and post-communist enterprise: The economic logic of Russia's business associations

Drawing on a unique set of surveys, this article explores the question of whether Russia's post-communist business associations are generally antithetical to or supportive of the broad objectives of economic restructuring. Contrary to the most widely cited analysis as to the purposes of collective action in the business community, the survey evidence demonstrates that association members have embraced market-adapting forms of behaviour at greater rates than non-members. The responses of both firms and associations, moreover, suggest that the associations themselves are, at least in part, directly responsible. These findings point to the conclusion that in contemporary Russia the net returns to collective action in support of market development are high relative to those for purposes that are less supportive.     

Neo-liberal Reforms and Illiberal Consolidations: The Indonesian Paradox

Market-oriented policy agendas have enjoyed a remarkable influence in Indonesia for almost four decades. Yet, attempts to impose these agendas in any systematic fashion have proven uncertain and inconclusive. This is not simply a case of successful resistance to reform by entrenched interests. Rather, the deepening of market capitalism and global integration has, in many instances, appeared to consolidate authoritarian politics and predatory economic relationships. Even in the wake of economic crisis and dramatic political change, these basic frameworks of power remain largely intact. Such paradoxes raise important questions about the relationships between markets, institutions and political and social power. We examine how market reforms have been resisted and even hijacked to consolidate predatory state and private oligarchies. We look at the way such entrenched interests have been reorganised in the face of fundamental institutional changes, including the collapse of authoritarian rule and the decentralisation of political authority.     

On the Road to Maidan: Russia's Economic Statecraft Towards Ukraine in 2013

Abstract

The events preceding the 2013 Maidan protests exemplified Russia's use of its economic power over Ukraine. In trying to prevent Kyiv leaving its orbit, Moscow threatened economic rupture and closed borders, used phytosanitary and technical norms to impose import bans, and demanded swift payment of Ukraine's debt to Russia. Accompanying these negative measures were incentives: Russia promised Ukraine significant concessions in the form of loans or preferential trade treatment. As a result of this pressure, President Viktor Yanukovych, against his own preferences, refused to sign the Association Agreement with the European Union. Nevertheless, Moscow's pressure did not succeed in compelling Yanukovych to join Russia's Eurasian Economic Union.     

Lottizzazione Russian Style: Russia's Two-tier Media System

The restructuring of the Russian mass media has created a two-tier media system, where some outlets, notably national television, are very tightly controlled, while others, including the internet, are allowed a substantial degree of freedom. The allocation of media outlets to one or other tier is carried out according to procedures that can be compared to the Italian lottizzazione, a method used to allocate political control within the state broadcaster RAI. Recent changes in media usage are now threatening the equilibrium of the system, thus posing a challenge to those responsible for its administration.