浅谈哈萨克斯坦与俄罗斯关于里海水域划界问题

哈萨克斯坦不仅与俄罗斯有着长达7200公里的陆地边界线,而且两国在里海水域也存在着边界划分问题。与相对简单的陆地边界划分相比,里海水域的划界则要复杂和困难得多。该水域的划分不仅是哈俄两国的事情,同时也牵涉到里海沿岸其他三国。里海水域边界的划分问题只有在沿岸国家就其法律地位达成一致意见后才能真正解决。     

Development and Impacts of the Customs Union of Russia,Bdarus and Kazakhstan

In recent years, the Eurasian Economic Community has developed rapidly, 1 and it has entered a substantive cooperative period. On January 1, 2010, Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan decided to launch the Customs Union within the framework of Eurasian Economic Community, and in July the three countries adopted unified customs tariffs. They removed the customs borders between each other beginning from July 2011. Then on January 1, 2012, the three countries launched their Common Economic Space. At the same time, the supranational Eurasian Economic Commission for the promotion of the integration process of the three countries also came into effect. On December 24, 2013, the Supreme Council of the Eurasian Economic Commission meetin~ was held in Moscow.     

俄罗斯加入世贸组织与我国对俄投资

俄罗斯加入WTO的谈判尽管仍存在困难，但迟早会正式成为WTO成员。俄罗斯加入WTO后必须遵守WTO规则要求，投资环境进一步趋好，扩大市场准入，将为我国提供难得的发展机遇。但俄罗斯加入WTO并不意味着对俄投资风险已完全消除，我国对俄投资仍将面临诸多挑战。特别是在当前俄罗斯开始重塑投资形象的新形势下，我国应合理调控对俄投资规模，优化对俄投资主体，强化对俄投资管理，构建对俄投资风险评估体系，努力实现对俄投资互利共赢。     

白俄罗斯、哈萨克斯坦、俄罗斯、乌克兰统一经济空间研究举要

白俄罗斯、哈萨克斯坦、俄罗斯、乌克兰联合组建统一经济空间。在独联体国家中俄罗斯与乌克兰的关系一直十分微妙,两个大国之间的关系直接影响到四国统一经济空间的发展前途。本文探讨了白、哈、俄、乌建立统一经济空间的基本原则和经济前提;分析了各方的共识与主要分歧;论述了乌克兰“橙色革命”、俄乌“天然气之争”对建立统一经济空间的影响,并对统一经济空间的发展前景作了展望。本文认为,虽然,目前各方对统一经济空间的最终发展方向分歧较大,但是,统一经济空间不会悄然解体,而是在曲折中不断向前发展。建立统一经济空间是一个漫长的过程,将分阶段进行。     

试论俄白哈乌四国统一经济空间

2003年9月19日,在独联体雅尔塔首脑会议期间,俄罗斯、白俄罗斯、哈萨克斯坦和乌克兰四国元首经过激烈的讨价还价,终于签署成立四国统一经济空间协定。根据该协定,四国将在保障公平竞争、维护宏观经济稳定的前提下奉行一致的对外贸易政策,最终实现区内商品、服务、资本和劳动力的自由流动。空间将分阶段建成,对独联体其他国家开放。 俄、白、哈、乌是独联体乃至全球有重要影响的国家。四国领土共计2060.36万平方公里,占独     

从俄哈视角解读阿斯塔纳峰会前后的欧安组织

被认为是欧洲安全重要支柱之一的欧安组织,2010年第一次由后苏联地区国家哈萨克斯坦担任主席国并举办峰会.峰会达成<阿斯塔纳宣言>,这是欧安组织具有里程碑意义的事件.近年来,欧安组织面临着国际形势变化的巨大冲击,能否适应新世纪的需要,其自身面临着转型的考验.通过观察和分析欧安组织的内部新发展,我们可以发现代表着后苏联空间的新兴地区力量与俄罗斯、北约等传统欧亚安全力量正共同参与欧亚安全格局的重新设置.在这个过程中,各方追逐自身利益的最大化,同时努力实现彼此利益的平衡.本文从俄罗斯、哈萨克斯坦的视角进行分析研究,梳理阿斯塔纳峰会前后影响欧安组织发展的诸多因素,重点探讨欧安组织与俄罗斯在欧洲安全理念上的异同,以及哈萨克斯坦通过欧安组织强化自主性建设及在外交拓展上的努力,从而评估欧安组织的现状及未来发展的走向.     

Shadowboxing in the Dark: Intelligence and Counter-Terrorism in Northern Ireland

The British experience in Northern Ireland, particularly the fight against the Provisional Irish Republican Army (PIRA), is an oft-cited case study in the counter-insurgency (COIN) spectrum and tome of counter-terrorism studies. It is the totality of the British intelligence experience in Northern Ireland, with its successes and challenges, which make it such a valuable case study from which to draw insight to shape contemporary COIN intelligence-based operations. As the conflict was both prolonged and intensified, a multitude of intelligence units from military and law enforcement evolved specifically to counter the effectiveness of PIRA; and to satisfy the desire of the security establishment to intensify information-gathering activities. This article examines the evolution and development of this security intelligence-driven effort that ultimately had the cumulative effect to wear down PIRA’s military capability through the focused application of a prolonged and lavishly resourced linked intelligence apparatus as an adjunct of a heavy military and police footprint. Nevertheless, despite Northern Ireland being a relatively small geographical area, the eventual containment of PIRA took years to achieve, demonstrating just how difficult it is to address a committed and determined insurgency. This highlights that a successful COIN strategy is arguably best predicated on the need for “patient” as opposed to “decisive” operations.     

Examining Deterrence and Backlash Effects in Counter-Terrorism: The Case of ETA

Scholars are increasingly drawing on models and theories from the field of Criminology to offer new insights on terrorist violence. A particularly useful framework by LaFree, Dugan, and Korte works from the assumption that illegal behaviour can be affected by the threat and/or imposition of punishment. It sees the results of the government's intervention in terms of deterrence (state's repressive action leads to a reduction in terrorism violence), and backlash (state's repressive action leads to defiance and retaliation, and to an upsurge of terrorism violence). This article applies this model to a case study of the government's responses to Euzkadi Ta Askatasuna (ETA). It uses a variation of survival analysis technique—Series Hazard—to assess the impact of six major initiatives on the risk of new ETA attacks in the period from 1977 to 2010. Mostly, the results provide support for both backlash interpretations, although important questions regarding interpretation are raised.     

清朝在新疆与沙俄在哈萨克斯坦的 "军政合一"管理体制比较

中国新疆和哈萨克斯坦在历史上分别是清朝政府和沙俄统治下的边疆地区.在相当长的历史时期,清朝政府和沙俄对边疆地区采取了以"军政合一"为主要特征的相似的管理体制.清朝政府在新疆建立的管理体制是中央政府上千年治理边疆政策的延续.而沙俄的管理体制却与其对外扩张的政策紧紧相连,在哈萨克斯坦确立的实质上是殖民体制.由于建立体制的目的不同,这就决定了双方的管理体制在结构、权限和管理方式等方面存在差异,同时在管理体制的实施过程中实行的移民、税收、民族、宗教等政策和措施的内容也不尽相同.通过对比为我们解读研究客体边疆地区统治政策提供一个新的视角.     

中东欧国家加入欧盟对俄罗斯的不利影响

欧盟东扩对俄罗斯产生极为深刻的影响,其中虽有积极方面,但消极方面尤为突出。中东欧国家的“入盟”,使俄罗斯的战略空间受到挤压,经济贸易受到损失,人员往来受到限制,边界纷争更趋严重,历史问题也引起尖锐矛盾。     

The External Dimension of EU Counter-Terrorism Relations: Competences,Interests, and Institutions

Some very significant policy developments indicate “supranationalisation processes” of EU external relations in counter-terrorism, even in its most significant relationship with the USA. This means that, increasingly, the USA is willing to work with Europe through its institutionalised forum—the European Union. Thus, the EU achieves certain recognition on the world stage in areas previously completely unsuspected—the “high politics” of counter-terrorism. This supranationalisation process proceeds in two stages. Firstly, the construction of an Area of Freedom, Security and Justice (AFSJ) pools a significant amount of national sovereignty at the level of the EU through the establishment of internal EU competences. As a side effect, however, it also constructs an institutionalised structure for external actors, such as the U.S., to deal with. Through dealing within this institutional setting, member states' interests become defined in such a way that increasingly they construct a “European” interest related to counter-terrorism.     

普京的"融入"欧洲战略及其前景评估

俄罗斯是地跨欧亚的国家,它属于欧洲或亚洲,既是一个客观定位问题,更涉及其发展方向。普京提出俄罗斯应“融入”欧洲,是想通过明确对该问题的认识,凝聚国内意见和力量,抓住欧洲正在发生深刻变化的时机,在“新的共同价值观基础”上,与欧洲共建“统一政治、经济和安全空间”,以使俄能够搭上欧盟和欧洲一体化的“列车”,实现振兴国家的愿望。但是,以欧盟为中心的欧洲虽然也提出与俄共建“统一空间”,实质上却没有准备将俄纳入到他们所设想的“欧洲一体化”进程中,而只是想以此为手段,与俄建立更加稳定的合作关系和机制,以促进俄继续朝着西方希望的“民主化”方向改革。这种目标上的差异必将影响俄欧合作的广度和深度,普京“融入”欧洲外交的努力尽管对俄有益,但道路必将漫长、曲折,所达程度也将有限。     

Putin''''s Strategy of Integrating Russia into Europe and Its Prospect

The establishment and rapid rise of the European Union (EU) have increasingly made Europe an independent force. Objectively, the enlargement of both the EU and NATO has speeded up the process of European integration, and "One important link of Russia's diplomacy is     

哈萨克斯坦独立以来的人口与人口迁移

年轻的哈萨克斯坦共和国独立以后面临着十分严重的人口危机,其主要表现为主体民族在全国总人口中所占比重不到一半;大量居民因各种原因迁离哈萨克斯坦;人口出生率下降,死亡率上升.面对这种情况,政府采取了一系列措施,如鼓励国外的哈萨克人迁回哈萨克斯坦居住;采取积极的人口生育政策,提高本国公民、特别是哈萨克族居民人口出生率;推行民族和睦政策,等等.同10年前相比,哈萨克斯坦的人口状况与结构已经发生了较大变化.     

Framing yourself into a corner: Russia,Crimea, and the minimal action space

A long-held axiom, political leaders are said to favour an action space sufficiently wide to allow them, as a minimum, a face-saving exit. This makes it particularly interesting for us to study those rare cases where political leaders seem to be deliberately reducing their policy options to the point of having merely one line to pursue. The handling by Russian President Vladimir Putin of the early 2014 crisis over Crimea, eventually leading to the annexation by Russia of the Ukrainian Peninsula on 21 March 2014, seems to represent such a rare case. Through the use of state-controlled media, a highly dichotomized framing of the crisis was presented to the Russian audience, essentially leaving Putin with just the one option of acting to “save” the Crimeans from the Ukrainian Government by bringing them into Russia.     

俄罗斯的宗教与现代化

俄罗斯是一个多宗教的国家.目前,俄罗斯境内共有宗教派别100多个.政教双方以俄罗斯联邦《关于信仰自由和宗教组织》的法律为基础,保持着一种相互协作的关系.在俄罗斯国家走向现代化的过程中,宗教领域呈现出明显的世俗化趋势.宗教的世俗化有助于人的思想解放和人的心理现代化,它对于社会的现代化能够起到积极的促进作用.然而,如果宗教组织过分地追求社会功利,宗教的世俗化也会产生相应的负面效应.调整好宗教间的关系、正确引导各宗教为国家的现代化服务--这是俄罗斯精神文明建设中一项不容忽视的任务.     

俄格冲突的幕后与前景

今年9月27日,格鲁吉亚警方以"从事间谍活动"为由,扣留5名俄驻格军官,同时包围俄军驻外高加索集群司令部,要求交出另一名涉嫌军官.俄对此采取一系列报复措施对格进行制裁.10月2日,格迫于压力释放了俄军官,但俄制裁并未停止.冲突有进一步升级的危险,双边关系正经历15年来最严重的危机.     

俄罗斯与白俄罗斯经贸合作关系论析

俄罗斯、白俄罗斯相继独立后 ,两国的经贸合作关系随着两国国家关系的不断升级而逐步向前发展。目前双方互为最重要的贸易伙伴 ,白俄罗斯已成为俄罗斯的第 3大贸易伙伴。然而 ,就两国良好的政治关系而言 ,两国经贸合作关系发展的总体水平并不是很高。俄白经济体制、具体经济政策法规的非趋同性等问题一直制约着两国经贸关系的发展。双方只有共同努力循序渐进地使两国经济体制趋同、采取切实有效的措施扩大投资规模和商品出口并在入世问题上协调一致 ,才能使双方经贸合作关系再上新台阶。