Building the West’s On-Ramp to China’s Belt and Road: Opportunities in the South Caucasus

China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is already changing infrastructure and production across much of the world. The three states of the South Caucasus and their counterparts in Central Asia need diverse connectivity to preserve their economic and political independence amid China’s expanding influence. Despite some rhetoric and practical measures, the United States and the European Union (EU) continue to underestimate the BRI. This article identifies recent international and regional developments that converge to create a unique opportunity for the West and South Caucasus partners. They may develop integrated, long-terms infrastructure of lasting mutual benefit. The convergence of events in and around the South Caucasus offers the place for the West to build an “On-Ramp” to the BRI. The South Caucasus provide a potential gateway into Asia’s heart that is not dictated solely by the priorities of Chinese foreign or commercial policies, just as the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline of a generation ago served a similar role.     

A Fragile Relationship: The United States and the Republic Of Korea

As South Korea became economically and militarily stronger and developed democratic institutions, the country was in a position to assume more responsibilities in its partnership with the United States. The necessary changes could be achieved only with difficulties. The efforts of the US administration to stop the nuclear proliferation by North Korea and South Korea's attempts to develop a policy of engagement towards the DPRK resulted in friction between the allies. The dissonance was amplified by efforts of the Rho Moo Hyun government to pursue a foreign policy that was less dependent upon the United States. The change of atmosphere was underlined by anti-American outbursts in South Korea. A new effort to strengthen the partnership is, however, reasonable. For South Korea the United States is still the indispensable ally as long as an attack by North Korea that probably has nuclear weapons cannot be ruled out. For the United States this alliance contributes to maintain America's paramount influence in East Asia. If both countries agree with this rationale they should take steps to accept basic assumptions and policies of the other side. To find a common position towards the nuclear efforts of North Korea is crucial. Even if both sides try to harmonize their policies, success is not guaranteed. Korean nationalism and American dynamics combined with occasional high-handedness are difficult obstacles.     

A Fragile Relationship: The United States and the Republic Of Korea

As South Korea became economically and militarily stronger and developed democratic institutions, the country was in a position to assume more responsibilities in its partnership with the United States. The necessary changes could be achieved only with difficulties. The efforts of the US administration to stop the nuclear proliferation by North Korea and South Korea's attempts to develop a policy of engagement towards the DPRK resulted in friction between the allies. The dissonance was amplified by efforts of the Rho Moo Hyun government to pursue a foreign policy that was less dependent upon the United States. The change of atmosphere was underlined by anti-American outbursts in South Korea. A new effort to strengthen the partnership is, however, reasonable. For South Korea the United States is still the indispensable ally as long as an attack by North Korea that probably has nuclear weapons cannot be ruled out. For the United States this alliance contributes to maintain America's paramount influence in East Asia. If both countries agree with this rationale they should take steps to accept basic assumptions and policies of the other side. To find a common position towards the nuclear efforts of North Korea is crucial. Even if both sides try to harmonize their policies, success is not guaranteed. Korean nationalism and American dynamics combined with occasional high-handedness are difficult obstacles.     

The EU in the South Caucasus and the Impact of the Russia-Ukraine War

Despite hopes that it would act as a transformative tool in the South Caucasus to strengthen democracy, stability, security and regional cooperation, the Eastern Partnership (EaP) has produced limited results, with the region more fragmented today than it was five years ago. Russia’s war against Ukraine has further exacerbated the situation, raising concerns over the extent to which South Caucasus countries can genuinely rely on the West. Today, Georgia, Armenia and Azerbaijan have different geostrategic trajectories. While Georgia has stuck to the Euro-Atlantic track, Armenia joined the Russian-led Eurasian Union in January 2015. Meanwhile Azerbaijan has the luxury of choosing not to choose. Developments in the region have demonstrated that a ‘one size fits all’ approach does not work and a more differentiated policy is required.     

Strategic Moral Diplomacy: Mandela, Qaddafi, and the Lockerbie Negotiations

Understanding and mitigating the consequences of clashing moral perceptions should be a primary goal of diplomacy and foreign policy analysis. Personal interviews and primary documents about the Lockerbie negotiations are used to illustrate the dangerous collision of different moral claims in the international arena, the mistakes made by the United States and United Kingdom in handling this aspect of the negotiations, and South African President Nelson Mandela's use of strategic moral diplomacy to resolve the stalemate between Libya, the United States, and the United Kingdom. Mandela's strategy in these negotiations is an example of how an intelligent and pragmatic moral position, rather than the conventional image of an enemy as evil, can produce the desired strategic results—in this case, Colonel Qaddafi's handover of the two Libyan citizens accused of the Lockerbie bombing.     

Quiet diplomacy in a television era: The media and U.S. policy toward the republic of Korea

This study examines the role of television coverage in U.S. policy toward South Korea, focusing on the May 1980 Kwangji incident and the subsequent visit of South Korean president Chun Doo Hwan to the White House in February of 1981. It explores these two episodes in the context of major dimensions of U.S. policy toward Korea and the themes developed through sporadic, low‐level coverage of Korea by mainstream American media over the years. The analysis underscores the political impact of television's dramatic visual focus, its use of consistent visual images, its expansion of the geopolitical scope of the policy process, and its personalization of policy. The dramatically different public interpretations of the Kwangju incident and Chun visit in Korea versus the United States suggests that President Reagan's first major state visit, during which he declared that his administration would pursue “quiet diplomacy” on human rights in Korea, while successful within the United States and in the short term, was damaging over the long term.     

The EU's security actorness: the case of EUMM in Georgia

This article addresses conceptually the European Union (EU)'s security actorness, explaining its meaning, identifying the factors that are constitutive to the concept, and analyzing whether the EU is a security actor in Georgia, through its increased presence and engagement in the country and its eventual implications for the South Caucasus. The article argues that the complementary nature of the different EU tools deployed on the ground and their comprehensive nature have contributed to the EU's consolidation as a security actor in the South Caucasus. However, and despite the successful assessments of the European Union Monitoring Mission in the context of common security and defense policy development, the mission's deployment and its contribution to regional stability are influenced to a great extent by the role and involvement of external players, in particular in this case, that of Russia.     

Navigating two Asias: how Washington deals with the Indo-Pacific’s rising powers

ABSTRACT

The United States has sought over the last two decades to facilitate India’s rise as a means of balancing against China’s ambitions. Notwithstanding the rich literature that has emerged on Sino-Indian dynamics and the U.S.-India-China triad, there has been remarkably little examination of the ways in which the United States navigates its relationships with these two rising powers. This study poses a simple question: to what extent has the United States’ pursuit of its interests with India meant that it has accepted trade-offs with respect to its interests with China? Drawing on government documents, interviews with current and former U.S. officials, and an array of case studies between 2005 and early 2019, this study argues first that the U.S. bureaucracy has long been structured in such a way as to heavily compartment policy decision-making related to South Asia and East Asia, respectively, and to produce a pronounced but largely explicable structural bias toward East Asia; second, that relatively few policy matters have arisen since 2005 that have forced the United States to consider meaningful trade-offs between its India and China equities; and third, that new challenges may arise for Washington as its deals with an increasingly inter-connected Indo-Pacific region, and manages the bureaucratic and policy implications of its renewed emphasis on great power competition.     

论南海问题中的美国因素

在影响南海问题的外部力量中,美国是最重要的第三方。冷战时期,美国对南海问题主要采取不介入和不表态的中立政策。冷战结束以来,美国开始关注和介入南海问题,并逐步采取具有明显倾向的政治和军事干预政策。美国的介入和干预加大了南海问题的复杂性和中国解决南海问题的难度。     

New Challenges for Putin's Foreign Policy

This article evaluates Russia's foreign policy after Vladimir Putin's reelection as president in March 2004. New challenges, such as the intensification of terrorist activities in the Northern Caucasus, the Orange Revolution in Ukraine, the destabilization of Central Asia, and the refusal by some European states to attend the celebration of the sixtieth anniversary of victory over fascism hosted in Moscow became important tests of Putin's strategy of great-power pragmatism. That strategy reflected a desire for Russia to be a normal great power and focused on cooperating with Western nations on a range of economic and security issues. This course had to be defended against criticisms at home in the context of intensified efforts by Western nations, particularly the United States, to influence developments in the former Soviet states. The article concludes by reflecting on some dilemmas that Putin's strategy is likely to encounter in the future.     

The United States–EURATOM Agreement of 1958: The Cold War Impact

Drawing on declassified sources, this analysis examines how the Cold War influenced United States policy towards the creation of the European Atomic Energy Community [EURATOM]. In the 1950s, “the peaceful atom” became a crucial sector of the Cold War. To maintain American nuclear leadership, the Dwight Eisenhower Administration invited Western Europeans to enter into an active collaboration with the United States on peaceful uses of atomic energy. The United States encouraged the creation of EURATOM by promising that the Community would obtain more assistance in the nuclear field than any individual state. The Soviet launch of Sputnik provided additional impetus to the signing of the United States–EURATOM agreement, having strengthened American interest in a joint programme with EURATOM that would bring together American and Western European scientific and technical resources to counter the Soviet Union. The exegesis contributes to recent studies on the interaction between the Cold War and European integration.     

Counterterrorism in an Era of Great Power Politics

How should the United States recalibrate its counterterrorism policy for an era of great power competition? With the end of unipolarity, the United States cannot fight terrorists and compete with Russia and China with equal energy, but must instead make hard choices about its priorities and resources. Among those hard choices are what to do with the web of counterterrorism partnerships with other governments that have formed in the post- 9/11 era. This article proposes three broad principles—linkages, license, and legitimacy—that the United States can use to evaluate its policy and these partnerships, with the aim of recasting U.S. counterterrorism policy for an era of great power competition.     

美国因素介入南海争端的用意及影响

在美国"重返东南亚"的大背景下,南海争端呈现复杂化趋势.本文对美国因素介入南海争端的用意及其战略布局进行分析,并就美国介入对南海争端相关当事方的影响进行分析和探讨.     

South China Sea： Disputes and Great Powers

In the South China Sea disputes,China has ample proof to claim sovereignty over the Xisha Islands(the Paracel Islands)and Nansha Islands(the Spratly Islands)while the claims of certain southeast Asian countries do not hold any water.The South China Sea disputes have their origins in the San Francisco Peace Treaty signed in 1951,the result of intervention by the United States and Great Britain in regional affairs.Even today,the United States has not discarded its Cold War mentality and continues to intervene in the South China Sea disputes.The only change in the United States’ attitude is that it has changed its pretext for intervention from "containing Communist expansion" in the past to "preserving freedom of navigation in the South China Sea" in the present.     

近年来澳大利亚官方对南海争端的基本立场

澳大利亚毗邻东南亚,又是美国在亚太最重要和最可靠的军事盟友。澳大利亚对南海的态度与立场,很大程度上影响对东盟和美国的立场。本文通过对近年来澳大利亚官方和主流媒体报道的官方对南海争端的态度和发言进行总结和分析,探讨澳大利亚官方对南海争端的基本立场。     

中柬“特殊关系”的形成(1954-1965)

1954年日内瓦会议以后的10年是中国和柬埔寨关系发展的重要时期。在这一时期中,两国关系经历了一个从彼此缺乏了解到在国际事务中密切合作的过程。在冷战时期,中国领导人视美国为对中国革命和中国国家安全的主要威胁,因此,他们对外政策的一个主要目标就是要打破美国对中国的孤立和封锁。为了反对和削弱美国这个主要敌人,中国领导人在外交领域中运用统一战线策略,分化对手并争取中立势力。就柬埔寨而言,中国领导人的主要考虑就是如何赢得西哈努克对中国的好感,争取他的合作,防止柬埔寨加入美国组织的反华包围圈。此外,中国领导人也希望通过柬埔寨来扩大中国在亚非中立国家中的影响。     

China and Global Energy Markets

China's emergence as a global economic powerhouse has caused the world economy to become more oil intensive and energy policy to become a key component of China's foreign policy. Responsibility for the country's energy policy is split among various commissions and is further complicated by overlaps with social, industrial, local-central governmental relations, and geopolitical considerations. To the extent China's leadership succeeds in meeting these challenges, it will have major repercussions for the rest of the world, and in particular on China's relations with the United States. But conflict between the United States and China is far from inevitable, as long as the global price mechanism operates reasonably efficiently and Washington and Beijing can operate in partnership rather than rivalry.     

An Analysis of the Indian Modi Administration's Policy on the South China Sea Issue

Geographically,India is not a country in the region of the South China Sea,nor is it a country concerned in the issue on a geopolitical level or a US ally in the Asia-Pacific region.It has been very cautious to avoid taking sides in the South China Sea issue.However,since Modi took office in 2014,changes have taken place in the external environment that India faces,in maritime safety strategy,as well as in India's policies toward the US and China.India is becoming increasingly active in the issue of the South China Sea,voicing criticism and taking precautions against China.While India's policy on the South China Sea will not be completely the same as that of the United States and Japan,due to concerns for its own interests in the future,it is quite possible that India will take advantage of the issue of the South China Sea and will adopt more comprehensive ways to get involved in the issue.     

U.S. Misperceptions and China's Chances

China is rising. Will China catch up with or surpass the United States economically and militarily some days? There is no universally accepted answer. The author believes that as long as the United States makes no mistakes, it is unlikely China will catch up with the United States in the foreseeable future. However, based on history and current US policy,there could be mistakes in areas such as anti-terrorism, China policy,immigration, etc. Any error on the part of the US will facilitate China's move to the fore.     

从门户开放政策看美属菲律宾政府的鸦片政策

1898年占领菲律宾后，美国即对菲律宾群岛的鸦片问题采取限制乃至最终禁止的政策，这与美国在19世纪中期以来积极参与亚洲鸦片贸易的态度大相径庭，这种反差令人深思，但如果从美国推行的“门户开放”政策的角度去理解，则一切都在情理之中。