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1.
The Russian invasion of Ukraine in early 2022 and the ensuing EU–Russian clash over the fate of Ukraine highlight the importance of explaining the outcomes of EU–Russian crisis bargaining. Complementing existing accounts, we argue that favourable preference constellations are key: The more determined, united and focused side prevails over its less interested, divided or unfocused counterpart. We first establish the inferiority of Russia's influence assets (economic, military, normative and allies) relative to the EU. We then use congruence analysis to reverse-engineer crisis bargaining outcomes in key cases of EU–Russian crisis bargaining, showing that favourable preference constellations allowed Russia, despite inferior assets and EU opposition, to ensure Syrian dictator Assad's political survival, finalize the annexation of Crimea in 2014 and keep Donbass out of Kyiv's control since then. Finally, we discuss the implications of these findings for related areas, as well as for current and future EU–Russian crisis bargaining, specifically over Ukraine. 相似文献
2.
试析乌克兰语言政策的去俄罗斯化 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
独立后,乌克兰历届政府均实施了“去俄罗斯化”语言政策,主要表现在通过语言立法降低俄语地位、缩小俄语使用范围以及改造乌语等方面。究其原因,乌当局将打压俄语作为矫正历史上语言强权的工具、缓解国家认同危机的途径以及乌俄关系中外交博弈的手段。由于乌境内俄语居民众多、俄语地位在乌俄关系中扮演重要角色、语言政策受到国际组织监察等因素的影响,乌克兰未来语言政策的去俄罗斯化将不会有更大的发展空间。 相似文献
3.
Andrea Chandler 《European Security》2018,27(2):201-223
Russia’s 2014 annexation of Crimea without the consent of Ukraine was a rare case of a state taking territory from a state with whom it previously enjoyed friendly relations. The paper seeks to explain the causes and consequences of this annexation by examining theories of democratic peace, constructivism and irredentism. In 1971, political scientist Myron Weiner published an article “The Macedonian Syndrome” in the journal World Politics (vol. 23, no. 4, 665–683). In particular, the paper examines the applicability of Weiner’s theses to Russia’s 2014 attempt to annex Crimea from Ukraine. While Weiner’s theory helps to explain Russia’s moves, his theory can be updated to consider the consequences of those moves. Russia attempted to justify its annexation by transposing the concept of friendship from Ukraine itself to a piece of its territory – Crimea. This transposition rested on a false dichotomy between Ukraine and Crimea, and Russia’s failure to live up to its international commitments to respect Ukrainian borders brought swift consequences in the form of Western sanctions. 相似文献
4.
Saad Eddin Ibrahim 《The international spectator : a quarterly journal of the Istituto affari internazionali》2013,48(4):53-69
The European Union has a unique opportunity to develop a positive strategy towards Ukraine. A pro-EU government is now in power in Kyiv, there is a revived civil society pressing for democratic reforms and the actions by Russia have both reinforced Ukraine’s pro-West line and led to the priority given Moscow being questioned by some member states. It is therefore essential to grant Ukraine a membership perspective to strengthen this trend and encourage Kyiv to confront and overcome the basic problems that face the country. 相似文献
5.
《Journal of common market studies》2018,56(6):1362-1375
Considering EU democracy promotion as an integral part of EU foreign policy, this article discusses the link between the EU's democratization discourse and the social construction of European identity. The narrative pays particular attention to whether the difference in power between the EU and less democratic countries affects European identity formation. The empirical explorations deliver the theoretical argument that the EU establishes an aporetic – contrasting but at the same time constitutive – relationship between a democratic European self and what the EU perceives as less democratic others. The difference in power between these two affects the content and intensity of the EU's democratization discourse, while there is no firm evidence that it directly impacts the process of aporetic identification. The discussion closes with suggestions for future research. 相似文献
6.
Olga Onuch; 《Journal of common market studies》2024,62(6):1423-1447
What drives ordinary citizens to want their country to join or stay in the European Union (EU)? Whilst scholarship addressed value-based dispositions as drivers of pro-EU positions, material benefits dominate explanations of support for EU accession and membership. New research suggests that it is precisely the growing import of being an adherent of liberal democratic values that drove citizens in countries as disparate as Ukraine, Poland and Belarus to support EU accession and remained the key driver for those already in the Union wanting to stay in. Employing national surveys and regression analyses, this article shows that (a) not only is a shift to supporting EU accession accompanied by citizens also moving towards supporting democracy in Ukraine; (b) this EU democratic pull phenomenon can also be identified amongst citizens of other EU neighbourhood countries, as well as in EU member states. 相似文献
7.
Elena Kropatcheva 《European Security》2013,22(3):370-394
Abstract This essay explores Russia's Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) policy, by focusing on two questions. First of all, analysts have noted Russia's disinterest and obstructive policies towards the Organization. Thus, the question is what – if anything – does the Russian Federation still want from the OSCE? Secondly, does the OSCE still serve as a forum for dialog? These two issues are studied on the basis of rational institutionalism and realism. The essay demonstrates that Russia is still interested in the OSCE, but its policy has become more pragmatic, selective and instrumentalist. It includes obstructive and constructive strategies. At the same time, today the Russian Federation ascribes less significance to the Organization in European security. This is predetermined not only by its inability to push its interests through the OSCE, but also by the declining interest of other participating States in the Organization. The differences between OSCE participants have turned it into a battlefield of interests in many areas. 相似文献
8.
Ferruccio Pastore Giulia Henry 《The international spectator : a quarterly journal of the Istituto affari internazionali》2016,51(1):44-57
Since 2013, the European migration and asylum regime has entered a phase of crisis, which reveals the deep interdependencies between its different components (including intra-EU mobility) and the unbalanced nature of its normative foundations. This original structural fragility had not fundamentally compromised the overall functioning of the regime until two major exogenous factors (the economic crisis, with its asymmetrical impact on the eurozone, and the wave of political instability and conflicts on the southern shore of the Mediterranean) brought its intrinsic limits to the point of rupture. The ongoing, highly contentious process of reform of the European migration and asylum regime is an unprecedented and crucially important test of the capacity of one the European Union’s key sectors to evolve under pressure and to adapt to a rapidly and deeply changing geopolitical, economic and demographic environment. 相似文献
9.
Michael Martin Richter; 《Journal of common market studies》2024,62(5):1204-1221
The European Union's (EU) external governance enjoys significant attention in the literature. Yet its outcomes are usually assessed with reference to strategic documents or scholars' self-designed criteria. This article contributes to the ongoing debate with a discourse analysis focusing on the perceptions of anti-corruption reform outcomes in Ukraine by actors on different levels in the EU. Simultaneously, structural factors are incorporated into the analysis. It demonstrates that although constant progress is officially proclaimed by the EU, even technical advisers disagree on how success in this crucial domain is understood and how to measure it. High-level representatives face a balancing act between conditionality demands, sovereignty limitations and geopolitical considerations. This explains the official signalling by the EU and the development of its rule-of-law reform conditionality. The outcome is a potential state of moral hazard and raise the question whether EU external governance has not become a victim of its ‘own success’. 相似文献
10.
《Journal of common market studies》2017,55(4):727-743
We examine how the EU can act as a great power in its own right even in the absence of military capability and how its institutional structure conditions this ability. We first theorize EU great power politics. Based on theories of corporate action, the EU constitutes a strong market power in its own right and a weak security power. While it is institutionally ill‐equipped to purposefully mobilize its market power to pursue high‐politics goals, its communitarized external relations may inadvertently challenge important security interests of other great powers. Second, we show that the EU acted as an inadvertent great power vis‐à‐vis Russia in its Ukraine policy which was primarily driven by the supranational decision‐making apparatus and low‐politics considerations, but engendered a bipolar power struggle with Russia over Ukraine. The risks inherent in EU inadvertent great power politics are deeply engrained in the EU's institutional structure and therefore difficult to mitigate. 相似文献
11.
Lucy M. Abbott 《Democratization》2018,25(1):178-184
This article offers an overview of the literature on international democracy promotion in relation to the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). It draws on the criteria of process tracing to evaluate the mechanisms, processes and episodes of democratization associated with international democracy promotion in the region. It finds that the literature lacks a clear account of how international democracy promotion relates to conditions for democratization and could pay greater attention to the role of media in either supporting or counteracting democracy promotion activities which impact democratization processes in the region. 相似文献
12.
《Journal of common market studies》2017,55(4):832-849
Trade policy is among the EU's most significant capabilities in promoting values including human rights. Yet trade policy and the EU's values‐based foreign policy are often in tension. Scholarship on the social dimension of trade policy has emphasized the tension between values and the EU's commercial interests. Human rights and conditionality clauses have not been the focus of analysis, yet conditionality is one of the EU's most visible links between the trade agenda and its values‐based foreign policy. Analyzing the EU's decision‐making in negotiating human rights conditionality, this paper employs the EU–Singapore free trade agreement and its negotiation as an in‐depth single case study. The tension between commercial interests and values results in decision‐makers promoting incoherent interests. We argue that organizationally defined preferences and issue salience circumscribed the Parliament's impact on decision‐making, resulting in concessions on human rights conditionality with Singapore. 相似文献
13.
Dirk Peters 《European Security》2014,23(4):388-408
The democratic foundations of European integration in the foreign and defence realm are increasingly being debated. This article looks at the question of democratic legitimacy from one particular angle, by examining public opinion as measured in Eurobarometer surveys between 1989 and 2009. Based on reflections about the relation between polling results and wider questions of democracy, it examines three aspects of public opinion: general support for a common foreign and a common defence policy; differences among support rates in EU member states; and what roles Europeans would prefer for European armed forces. It turns out that general support for a common foreign policy is high, whereas the desirability of a common defence policy is much more contested. Moreover, citizens across Europe would prefer European armed forces to take on traditional tasks, as territorial defence. An EU defence policy that goes beyond strict intergovernmentalism and is directed towards protecting international law and universal human rights would thus require a significant communicative effort to become accepted. 相似文献
14.
Michael H. Smith 《The international spectator : a quarterly journal of the Istituto affari internazionali》2018,53(1):45-56
AbstractPoliticians, diplomats and analysts commonly assume that commitment to multilateralism and liberal norms is part of the EU’s very DNA. Increasingly, however, the EU’s commitment to the liberal global order is more selective. We demonstrate the shift to a more contingent liberalism by examining the EU’s recent record in relation to four different challenges: international trade; US leadership; Russian actions in the eastern neighbourhood; and security in the Middle East. We speculate on what this may portend for the EU’s self-identity, European interests and the integrity of the prevailing global order. 相似文献
15.
Frank de Zwart Karolina Pomorska 《The international spectator : a quarterly journal of the Istituto affari internazionali》2019,54(1):121-129
ABSTRACT“Unintended consequences” is an umbrella concept. It comprises phenomena that differ in crucial respects and consequently, without refinement, it remains a rather blunt instrument for policy analysis. The contributions in this volume, however, show that disentangling unintended consequences by making clear distinctions between various types, makes the concept much more useful for policy analysis. Assessing the impact of EU foreign policies as studied in this volume, we show that “bonuses”, “windfalls”, “accidents”, and “trade-offs” – all unintended – are very different when it comes to the explanation of policy outcomes, or to allocating responsibility for them. 相似文献
16.
Oriol Costa 《European Security》2013,22(3):245-261
Abstract The European Union (EU) has led international politics on antipersonnel landmines (APLs) for a decade now, and its foreign policy in this domain is perceived as a success story. Nevertheless, at the beginning of the negotiations that led to the Ottawa Convention, the EU looked unable to play any relevant part. This article addresses the emergence of the EU's foreign policy on APLs by arguing, in a second image-reversed way, that the corresponding international regime has deeply influenced the EU. It has changed Member States' and EU institutions' preferences, and it has empowered pro-Ottawa and pro-integration actors. This article explores the intra-EU conditions that have facilitated this influence and the way in which the regime itself has shaped them. 相似文献
17.
《Journal of common market studies》2017,55(5):993-1008
This article introduces a new approach to the study of EU mediation and conflict resolution. It argues that researchers have not fully accounted for the changes underway in the Union's take on mediation. By elucidating the differences between this approach and the already existing literature on EU mediation, the article advocates a practice turn and develops a framework for studying EU mediation as an assemblage of practices. It builds on Latourian assemblage thinking and complements it with the Foucauldian notion of political rationality and techne. This approach is then explored through examining the practices of EU mediation support in Myanmar, which draws attention to the contradictions and a specific set of knowledge claims on peace and conflict, and traces dissident voices and how they inform the use of mediation instruments. In so doing, it demonstrates how a practice‐oriented approach allows us to provide new insights into EU external action. 相似文献
18.
Andrey Makarychev Alexandra Yatsyk 《The international spectator : a quarterly journal of the Istituto affari internazionali》2013,48(4):62-75
The Winter Olympic Games in Sochi and the annexation of Crimea were two major international events in which Russia engaged in early 2014. In spite of all the divergence in the logic underpinning each of them, four concepts strongly resonate in both cases. First, in hosting the Olympics and in appropriating Crimea, Russia was motivated by solidifying its sovereignty as the key concept in its foreign and domestic policies. Second, the scenarios for both Sochi and Crimea were grounded in the idea of strengthening Russia as a political community through mechanisms of domestic consolidation (Sochi) and opposition to unfriendly external forces (the crisis in Ukraine). Third, Sochi and Crimea unveiled two different facets of the logic of normalisation aimed at proving – albeit by different means – Russia’s great power status. Fourth, one of the major drivers of Russian policy in both cases were security concerns in Russia’s southern flanks, though domestic security was also an important part of the agenda. 相似文献
19.
Gergana Noutcheva 《Democratization》2018,25(2):312-330
The impact of external actors on political change in the European neighbourhood has mostly been examined through the prism of elite empowerment through externally offered incentives. The legitimacy of external policies has received less scrutiny, both with regard to liberal powers promoting democracy and illiberal powers preventing democracy. This article investigates the conflicting notions of legitimate political governance that underpin the contest between the European Union (EU) and Russia in the Eastern neighbourhood. It proposes four mechanisms of external soft influence that take into account the EU’s and Russia’s actorness and the structural power of their norms of political governance, and consider their effects on domestic actors and societal understandings of appropriate forms of political authority. It finally traces the EU’s and Russia’s soft influence on political governance in Ukraine. It maintains that through shaping the domestic understandings of legitimate political authority and reinforcing the domestic political competition, the EU and Russia have both left a durable imprint on Ukraine’s uneven political path. 相似文献
20.
Maria Giulia Amadio Viceré Sergio Fabbrini 《The international spectator : a quarterly journal of the Istituto affari internazionali》2017,52(3):64-82
The 2009 Lisbon Treaty institutionalised an intergovernmental constitution for managing policies traditionally a matter of national sovereignty, such as foreign and defence policies. However, important innovations were introduced in the foreign policymaking structure to limit its intergovernmental logic, in particular, with regard to the role of the High Representative (HR). It was generally assumed that those innovations would have made development of a coherent EU foreign policy possible. Yet, in one of the most significant tests for the EU’s foreign and defence policies in the post-Lisbon era, namely the Egyptian crisis (2011-14), those reforms did not work as expected. Notwithstanding the innovations, the HR’s role was diminished by the European Council’s strict control over foreign policy toward Egypt. The lack of clear policy guidelines towards the issue of democratisation in the Arab world in the 2003 European Security Strategy, although partially mitigated by the European Neighbourhood Policy and the Barcelona Process/Union for the Mediterranean, made it even more difficult for the HR to bring a European perspective into the largely intergovernmental setting. 相似文献