俄罗斯军事改革:经验与启示

军事改革是俄罗斯军事史上的经常性现象。作为国家和社会改革的重要组成部分,俄罗斯军事改革既受到国家和社会改革的约束,也对社会发展和制度演进起着有力的促进作用,更是推动俄罗斯军事发展的强大动力。俄罗斯军事改革的实质是解决结构性和机制性的矛盾,其目的是排除影响战斗力提高的体制与制度障碍,为提高战斗力的生长效率打下“组织”基础。战斗力的提高主要要靠资源投入,军事改革与战斗力的增长之间不是线性关系,因此用战斗力标准去评价俄罗斯军事改革是不科学的。在俄罗斯军事改革的动力系统中,广大军人,尤其是中下层军官,既是改革的主体,也承担改革的成本,为保持军事改革动力系统的完整性,有必要用加大补偿力度的方法减少他们的利益损失。改革需要指导艺术,俄罗斯在如何抓住改革时机、选择改革切入点、制定改革规划和处理改革成本方面,既有经验,也有教训。     

从俄新版《军事学说》看其军事理论的新变化

军事学说作为俄罗斯军事思想的集中体现,代表着俄最高当局最新的军事政策的动向。俄新版《军事学说》的出台,标志着俄军事理论发生了新的重大变化。从发展看,在短期内俄军事理论总体框架难有大的变化。     

Military reform and strategic nuclear forces of the Russian federation

Russian Minister of Defense Marshal Igor Sergeyev has proposed merging the Strategic Rocket Forces and strategic nuclear components of the Navy and Air Force. Advocates of the proposed reform invoke Russia's need to increase its reliance on nuclear weapons in view of the decline in its conventional forces, as well as the potential savings from the merger. Critics of the plan view it as favoring the Strategic Rocket Forces at the expense of the rest of the military, and as prohibitively expensive. The NATO campaign in Kosovo has made Marshal Sergey ev vulnerable to criticism for emphasizing nuclear forces over conventional ones, and the plan has been put on hold.     

近年来俄罗斯军事改革的基本启示

叶利钦时期开启的俄罗斯军事改革,虽然经历艰难曲折,但总的趋势仍在不断向前,特别是积累的经验教训,为普京总统主导的以"常规化、机动化、均衡化、质量化"为理念和内涵的新一轮军事改革提供了有益的借鉴,也为俄罗斯军事建设发生指向性的战略转变起到了推动作用.     

俄罗斯应对美国NMD的军事方略研究

2001年俄罗斯依托战略进攻武器的实力,迫使美国一度不敢单方面退出<反导条约>;依托战略防御武器的实力,迫使美国不得不按照俄罗斯的立场进行谈判.美国单方面退出<反导条约>后,俄罗斯决心加快研制新一代的战略进攻和防御武器,在与美国的NMD较量和谈判中争取有利于自己的结果.     

俄罗斯与印度军事合作态势分析

俄罗斯与印度作为昔日的战略盟友、今日的战略伙伴,两国历届领导人都非常重视双方在军事领域的合作与发展,军事技术交流及武器装备贸易通常是两国元首最高会晤中的重要话题之一。深入分析与研究俄印两国之间军事领域合作的新内容、新特点和新动向,可以清晰地看出,俄印两国保持密切的军事合作关系,一方面是出于双方的军事利益的需要,另一方面也是为了巩固和提高双方各自在国际政治舞台上的地位和作用。俄印军事领域的合作完全是一种相互依靠、相互利用的态势。     

Rape as terror: The case of Bosnia

When ethnic minority parties are excluded from government coalitions, are group attributes such as religion related to the groups’ use of political violence? We argue that extremist factions within minority groups make use of divergence in religion to mobilize support for violent action when the group is excluded from government. Thus, we posit that while religion per se is not a source of violence, extremist elements of ethnic minorities, whose religion differs from the majority, may use religious divergence to mobilize group members to perpetrate terrorism. Specifically we test the hypotheses that extremist factions of an excluded group will be more likely to carry out terrorist attacks when the group's members belong to a different religion as well as when they belong to a different denomination or sect of a religion than the majority. To test these propositions, we use data on ethnic minority party inclusion in government coalitions, ethnic minority group religion, and the Global Terrorism Database (GTD) by matching perpetrators with ethnic groups for all democracies, 1970–2004.     

Security sector reform: The building of security in Bosnia and Herzegovina

This article addresses the issue of Security Sector Reform (SSR) in Bosnia and examines whether the reform of security structures has enhanced security of Bosnia as a whole. The experience of recent armed conflict, and fragmentation and ethnicization of security structures have created special challenges for SSR in Bosnia. Transformation of the security sector in Bosnia is made even more complicated by the plethora of international actors involved in the process. The article argues that, despite the complexity of the task, SSR has produced some notable results, particularly in redressing the balance of power between the state and entities in the spheres of defence, policing and intelligence. However, while some of the SSR initiatives appear to be very successful in their main objective, they have inadvertently created some new security risks and/or displaced problems into another area. Thus, the question remains whether Bosnia's security has been enhanced in the process. The article identifies two main obstacles which block further progress in the building of security in Bosnia: first, the lack of local ‘ownership’ of SSR, and second, the Dayton constitutional arrangements. The article concludes that until these two fundamental issues are effectively addressed Bosnia will remain a weak, marginalized country filled with insecurity, divisions and adversity.     

俄罗斯的军事战略和军事力量

一、国防体制 根据《俄罗斯联邦宪法》和《国防法》规定,俄罗斯总统为联邦武装力量最高统帅,对联邦武装力量、其他部队、军事单位和机关实施全面领导,确保俄联邦军事安全。俄罗斯军事与安全的最高决策机构是联邦安全会议,是为总统起草安全保障方面决定的宪法机关,负责审议俄罗斯联邦安全保障方面的内外政策问题,解决经济、国防、信息、生态安全、预测     

Training and non-security aspects of the police democratisation in Bosnia and Herzegovina

In any country, either ‘democratised’ or in transition, training institutions play a key role in the police management. Basic but also permanent training are crucial to the adaptation of the police forces to a con stantly changing environment. It is especially true in post-conflict areas, where new paradigms of policing and security management replace systems that often tended to be undemocratic and regime-oriented. Based on the principle that the goals of the training must follow those of the service, new paradigms in policing require new paradigms in training. However, it is only recently that reform projects of the security sector have integrated this training perspective into their strategies, beside or ganisational and material cooperation. Taking Bosnia and Herzegovina as an example, this article provides with a range of tools and concepts applicable to the reform of police training. It also emphasises the challenges that this country and the international community now face to ensure the sustainability of an 8 year-long police reform.     

Democratization in Bosnia: The limits of civil society building strategies

For many commentators, the construction of civil society in East European states is considered a precondition for the development of consolidated democratic institutions. Nowhere is this more the case than within Bosnia‐Herzegovina, where ethnic and nationalist identification indicate a deeply politically segmented society. To challenge this segmentation international institutions are providing financial and technical support to a growing civil society sector based on non‐governmental organizations. Research into the civil society support work of the Democratization Branch of the Organization for Security and Co‐operation in Europe indicates that the predominantly middle‐class constituency of these groups reflects the extensive external international regulation of the new state under the Dayton Peace Agreement. However, the extension of autonomy and self‐government may well create more fruitful conditions for the growth of civil society alternatives.     

伊拉克军事实力及军事部署

最近,伊拉克问题日渐聚焦,一方面美国磨刀霍霍,小布什极力主张对伊动武;另一方面伊拉克则不甘示弱,积极备战,准备反击。那么,萨达姆究竟有何实力敢与美抗衡呢?现将伊拉克陆、海、空三军实力及主要部署情况介绍如下:     

Elections and political change in post-war Bosnia and Herzegovina

This article examines attempts to use electoral politics to promote substantive political change in post-war Bosnia and Herzegovina. Since 1990 elections have been a key part of virtually all negotiated agreements to end civil wars. The utility of democracy for building peace is often asserted but rarely backed with long-term commitment and resources on the ground. Bosnia since 1996 is a rare exception. There, international actors sought not only to establish a democratic political system but to use electoral democracy as a tool with which to transform the nature of politics in Bosnia in short order. This article focuses on efforts to shape the development of political parties and the party system, assesses the degree to which it has succeeded and examines the broader implications of Bosnia's experience for other state-building efforts of its kind.     

The Clandestine Political Economy of War and Peace in Bosnia

Most contemporary intrastate military conflicts have a criminalized dimension: In various ways and to varying degrees they use smuggling networks and criminal actors to create and sustain the material basis for warfare. Despite its importance, the criminalized side of intrastate war and its legacy for postwar reconstruction is not a central focus of analysis in most scholarly accounts of armed conflict. A detailed examination of the Bosnian conflict illustrates the explanatory usefulness of a "bottom up," clandestine political economy approach to the study of war and post-war reconstruction. Drawing on interviews with former military leaders, local and international officials, and in-country observers, I argue that the outbreak, persistence, termination, and aftermath of the 1992–1995 war cannot be explained without taking into account the critical role of smuggling practices and quasi-private criminal combatants. The article suggests the need for greater bridging and broadening of the study of security, political economy, and crime.     

当代俄罗斯远东地区的俄汉洋泾浜简

洋泾浜俄语作为一种语言形式,广泛存在于中俄边境地区民间贸易活动中.目前,在远东,俄汉洋泾浜作为一种接触语言,有其自身发展的历史以及社会语言特征.     

Civic Mobilization in Divided Societies and the Perils of Political Engagement: Bosnia and Herzegovina's Protest and Plenum Movement

This article explores how civic mobilizations that emerge in deeply divided societies navigate their ethnopolitical frameworks and assesses their capacity to effect civic political change within such contexts. The article examines these questions through the case of a citizens’ protest and direct democracy movement that emerged in the postwar state of Bosnia and Herzegovina in 2014. It concludes that the movement adapted to its ethnicized political environment by adopting an approach of limited political engagement and that, rather than trying to effect short-term political change, it chose to pursue a long-term shift in civic consciousness.