增强危机意识加快农业发展——当前粮食危机给非洲的重要提示

粮价大幅上涨给世界各国的经济社会生活带来十分不利的影响,其中撒哈拉以南非洲在这次粮食危机中受到巨大冲击.居民生活水平下降,甚至引发了社会动荡.引发本轮粮食危机的原因除灾害性气候之外,还出现一些新因素,将对长期粮食安全构成挑战.严重的粮食短缺状况,及未来可能出现的粮食安全问题,再次警示认真改变非洲农业落后现状的必要性和紧迫性.     

阿拉伯国家粮食安全问题探究

阿拉伯国家主要分布在西亚北非地区,其地理特征基本体现为沙漠和丘陵,气候炎热,不适宜农作物生长,可耕地仅占这些国家国土总面积的5.1%.,但农业仍是多数阿拉伯国家国民经济的重要产业,阿拉伯国家总人口中多半为农业人口.另外,该地区水资源奇缺,加上常年战乱不断,严重影响了各国农业的发展,自产粮食远远不能满足当地人的需求,每年要进口大量的粮食和食品.尤其是当今世界出现粮食危机,粮食食品价格飞涨,使本来就遭遇粮食困难的阿拉伯国家雪上加霜.它们解决粮食危机的出路是:控制人口增长,提高生活水平;重视农业发展,加强团结协作;创造投资环境,吸引外资;建立海外产粮基地;发展先进技术,增强环境保护意识.     

非洲粮食危机的成因

近年来,由于国际粮食市场供求失衡,粮价高涨导致粮食危机在非洲蔓延,使得粮食自给能力相对较弱的非洲社会不稳定因素增长,人民生活压力增加。探究非洲粮食危机的成因,对非洲正确应对粮食危机有着实际意义。     

独立后印度土地关系的变化

独立初期，印度面临着非常严峻的农业形势。在英国殖民统治下的印度农业生产特别是粮食生产长期处于停滞的状态。根据国家农业委员会的报告，从英国人那里继承来的封建土地关系结构是使独立前印度农业陷入慢性危机的主要原因①。根据该报告，这一封建性的土地关系结构主要...     

从粮食危机反思拉美贸易和农业政策改革

2006～2008年国际大宗粮食价格快速上涨最终酿成了一场世界范围内的粮食危机,期间美国次贷危机的全面爆发更增添了其复杂性.文章主要从供需失衡、投机活动、生物能源开发、发展中国家农业生产受到制约、市场垄断结构等方面分析危机发生的原因,同时阐述危机对拉美国家造成的负面影响:社会骚乱和政局动荡、通货膨胀攀升、赤贫人口增加、国际收支恶化,等等.拉美国家采取的紧急救助、价格控制等措施只在短期内缓解了危机程度,但并未真正解决粮食危机.对拉美国家而言,过去30多年贸易和农业发展中的政策偏差才是造成这种"富饶中的匮乏"现象的根源.因此,拉美国家应建立长期的农业发展战略,并通过集体行动纠正全球农业生产与贸易之间的系统性不平衡.     

非洲农业危机的根源

近年来，非洲农业发展缓慢，地位下降，处于危机之中。其根源在于非洲国家失误的发展政策，不利的自然条件，落后的农业技术，内战冲突频发，以及发达国家操纵的不合理的国际经济秩序。在新世纪，非洲农业发展的方向应是加强农业的基础地位，建立以粮食生产为中心的多样化格局，大力推广农业生物技术。     

朝鲜粮食不足问题及其解决前景

朝鲜粮食危机从20世纪90年代开始引起世界关注.由于国际社会的大规模援助和朝鲜粮食产量的回升,朝鲜的粮食危机有所缓和.但是,从2008年起,朝鲜再度出现严重的粮食不足问题,其根源在于朝鲜自然条件的制约和自然灾害的频发,以及经济发展战略的错位、农业生产流通体制的弊端和农业政策的失误、国际环境的变化等.朝鲜要想从根本上解决粮食问题,就必须实施出口导向型经济发展战略,积极推动国内经济体制改革和对外开放、改善国际环境,以第二产业和现代服务业的发展扶持农业现代化,同时增加粮食进口.     

浅析加入世贸组织后俄罗斯农业发展主要措施

俄罗斯既是粮食生产大国,又是粮食出口大国,在国际粮食市场中占有重要位置.但俄罗斯农业具有两面性：一方面是小麦、玉米等农产品的出口大国;另一方面在肉类、奶制品等方面又严重依赖进口.2011年12月加入世贸组织后,为减少负面冲击,俄罗斯政府及金融机构在世贸组织规则框架内,对受到冲击较强的重点领域实施保护,加大对农业扶持力度,提高农产品竞争力.     

从达尔富尔危机透视气候变化下的生态冲突

达尔富尔危机始于2003年2月.这场冲突的矛盾根源是达尔富尔的环境难以承载本地居民与外来生态移民的共同需求,由此引发双方对生存资源的争夺.气候变化是达尔富尔危机的驱动因素,而脆弱的治理结构和粗放的生产方式是酿成危机的内在动力.根据对萨赫勒地区近期的气候变化研究成果,结合苏丹的自然地理、农牧生产、殖民历史等因素,我们认为,达尔富尔冲突本质上是一场农业危机,是一国内部治理问题国际化的产物,解决这场冲突有赖于农业集约化生产的发展.     

尼日利亚农业现状及中尼农业合作研究

农业是中国的基础和优势产业,其发展一直受到极大关注。改革开放30多年来,中国粮食等主要农产品综合生产能力得到显著提高,粮食产量屡创新高,中国有比较丰富的农业技术和管理经验。尼日利亚拥有丰富的农业资源和巨大的市场,但由于农业结构单一,生产水平低下,在农业种植业方面偏向经济作物,近年来农业发展相对缓慢,至今粮食不能自给。中国和尼日利亚在农业领域具有巨大的合作潜力,中尼农业合作不仅有利于解决尼粮食短缺问题,而且还有利于中国农业走向非洲,利用两种资源,面向两个市场,促进自身发展。     

Inter-Korean relations and the roles of the US and of the EU

The North Korean nuclear standoff has escalated since North Korea let slip that it was developing nuclear weapons while James Kelly, U.S. Assistant Secretary of East Asian and Pacific Affairs, was visiting Pyongyang in October 2002. The Bush administration has acknowledged that the United States will not discount a preemptive military strike on the suspected nuclear development facilities, and North Korea has stood firm against any pressure to halt its nuclear development from the international community. Dialogue and meetings for international cooperation among the major countries concerned, including Korea, the U.S., Japan and China, have been activated to resolve the nuclear crisis in the Korean Peninsula, especially after the U.S. pronounced an end to its war against Iraq in early May of this year. In the middle of the rapidly changing situation on the Korean peninsula, the inter-Korean reconciliation and cooperation initiated by the Sunshine Policy of the Kim Dae Jung administration and followed by the Roh Moo-hyun administrations Policy of Peace and Prosperity are not separable from the nuclear situation. This paper follows recent developments of inter-Korean relations, illustrates South Koreas stance on the issue and suggests the EUs role on the nuclear issue. This is a revised version of the paper presented at the Asia-EU Journalists Seminar organized by the Asia Europe Foundation and the Korea Press Foundation (KPF), held in Brussels, Belgium, May 22 2003. Financial support from the KPF is gratefully acknowledged.     

美苏政治文化差异与冷战起源

一国政治文化对国家对外决策有不可忽视的影响。美苏政治文化中相互冲突的部分对两国战后初期外交决策以及冷战爆发产生重要影响，国家间的政治文化沟通对处理国家间相互关系具有重要意义。     

Strengthen the Communication Among the Youth and Enhance the Mutual Understanding and Trust

AttheinvitationoftheInternationalInitiativesofChangeAssociationofJapanIICAJIaccompa-niedMr.LiYangCouncilMemberofChineseAs-sociationforInternationalUnderstandingCAFIUonthevisittoJapanfromJune10to18andat-tendedthe27thInternationalConferenceoftheInitiativeofChangeinOdawara.DuringourstaythereweseparatelymetwithTutomuHataAdvi-sortotheIICAJandformerPrimeMinisterofJapanSomaYukikaHonoraryPresidentofIICAJToruHashimotoPresidentofIICAJandAdvisortotheJapanMizuhoFinancialGroupandD…     

海陆复合型地缘政治大国的战略选择与崛起成败

国际体系是一个复杂的利益交互系统,在系统中存在着众多战略层面的施动—反馈模式。地缘政治大国的安全战略选择决定了它与体系其他主要成员间的互动方式,互动方式决定了其可能面临的结构性压力,并最终影响到大国崛起的兴衰成败。通过本项研究可以发现:海陆复合型崛起大国的战略模式可以分为"区域陆权"战略、"全球海权"战略和"区域/全球海陆并举"战略。如果崛起大国尚未形成稳固的陆基周边环境,那么追求"区域陆权"战略是最优选择;如果拥有稳固陆基周边环境,那么追求"全球海权"战略是最优选择。而"海陆并举"战略因"同色竞争"原理,既可能同周边国家陷入"区域陆权"优势的安全困境,也可能同"全球海权"国家陷入争霸战争。因此,"海陆并举"战略往往容易造就一个反对自身崛起的海陆权力联姻。此外,追求单一的"差色互补"原理容易实现海陆功能分异背景下的战略结盟,进而影响大国崛起战略的操作实施。     

The EU and Libya and the Art of the Possible

In spite of geographic proximity and a number of shared interests, the European Union and Libya have a history of strained relations. The war of 2011 provided an opportunity for a fresh start, but so far neither side has been able to reap benefits from an entirely new political situation. Instead, Libya’s difficult internal situation has not only slowed down the process of rapprochement, but also increased EU concern. At a time when cooperation becomes a necessity rather than a choice, Libya is now down-spiralling into implosion at the levels of security, bureaucracy and economy, to the point where it cannot absorb the offers being made.     

抗击经济衰退：象和龙

由美国引发的经济危机已经席卷全球,无论是西方发达国家和地区如日本、欧盟,还是发展中国家如印度、中国,都已笼罩在全球经济衰退的阴影中。本文探讨作为正在崛起的亚洲大国——印度和中国,应采取怎样的措施遏制全球经济危机对本国经济造成更严重的伤害,以及印中两国如何借鉴对方在应对经济危机过程中采取的有效政策以尽快重新走上经济发展的正轨。     

China and the WTO: the theory and practice of compliance

Since China joined the World Trade Organization (WTO) in December2001, attention has turned to the issue of whether or not Chinais a responsible member of the organization and how compliantChina is with WTO rules. This article discusses the difficultiesfaced by China, as a responsible rising power, in trying toadjust itself to global trading norms. It examines the theoryof compliance in international relations from the perspectivesof neo-realism, liberal institutionalism and social constructivism,and then tests these perspectives by examining the mechanismsused to gauge China's compliance, both bilaterally by the UnitedStates and multilaterally through the Dispute Settlement Mechanismand the Transition Review Mechanism of the WTO. The result ismixed: different opinions exist as to how compliant China hasbeen but, on the whole, most monitors agree that China has triedhard to comply with WTO requirements in various areas, thoughmuch remains to be done. The most severe tests will come inthe next few years when China's financial and service sectorswill have to face fundamental changes to the way they operate.     

Caught between Europe and the orient: Israel and the EMP

As the case of Transnistria illustrates, the politico-economic arrangements of de facto states are marked by a tendency to sacrifice the economy to political objectives. Despite non-recognition and limited local resources, these entities manage to make use of their ambiguous status and external support to sustain their claims to statehood. Yet, the priority of these claims over economic development, as well as strategies of survival in general can have unintended effects on unrecognised state-building projects, such as the emergence of a spin-off opposition or public disillusionment.     

Campaign Advertising and the Stimulation and Activation of the Authoritarian Personality

This research examines whether authoritarianism can be stimulated and activated by politicians. The traditional belief is that psychological traits are basically quasipermanent structures that consistently determine behavior, but newer research suggests that these traits can be stimulated. This research tests whether campaigns can stimulate traits with targeted messages. I do so by exposing subjects in an experiment to political television advertising that was designed to stimulate known correlates of authoritarianism, such as fear. The results show that authoritarianism is stimulated in treatment groups that watched advertising designed to invoke threat and the strong-father metaphor and the treatment effect is greater on conservatives. I also show that watching these commercials leads to an activation of authoritarianism that influences its predictive power over support for torture. This suggests that politicians can use emotional appeals to stimulate advantageous personality traits, and that these ads also influence the public's attitudes through activation.     

当代俄罗斯贫富分化的危机与超越

俄罗斯由转型而引发的贫富差距问题,对社会造成了许多负面影响,比如,道德规范下降,公民淡漠政治,公信力大大降低等。现如今,俄罗斯的贫富差距并没有消除,但整个社会形势却不断好转,人民的乐观情绪不断增长,国家也在稳定中不断走向复兴。从这些现实状况来看,俄罗斯社会似乎摆脱了贫富分化的纠结,已然超越到了另一个发展阶段。俄罗斯转型期的公共政策、阶层分化模式、阶层状况等一些措施与现实,不失为解释这两种情势变换更迭的有效途径。