Lessons from the Asian Economic Crisis: A View from South Korea

Ha and Kim present a new reading of the East Asian crisis, focusing particularly on South Korea's experience. They argue that previous studies have ignored the political environment that paved the way for such an event. Neoliberal economists, according to the authors, were so enamoured with the example of the 'Asian tigers' and the ideal of unregulated markets that they were blind to the many warnings of an ensuing disaster. Economic systems can thus no longer rest on such a free-market capitalist ideal where no one controls the global economy, but must instead have a secure political base. As the financial crisis has shown, such international anarchy must be checked by a new set of international institutions. While the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) organisation did attempt to handle the crisis, it, along with Japan and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), proved unable to do so. East Asia's leaders and theorists have been presented with the challenge of reforming this region's institutions and political orders in order to avoid another crisis, complete with all its social and political ramifications.     

Sorting out the Conceptual Muddle: The Role of the Japanese Economy in the Asian Financial Crisis

Karel van Wolferen argues that, since Japan's political economy was the main factor in creating the circumstances that led up to the East Asian financial crisis, studies must focus on it to understand this event. The Japanese economy, which is here described as a war economy operating in peacetime, provided the model for East Asia's 'tiger economies' that imitated the Japanese government in its targeting of sectors for investment, especially the construction industry in the 1980s. These other East Asian economies proved more vulnerable to crisis than the Japanese economy because they were more open to foreign investment and did not have Japan's closely knit economic and financial networks and institutions. After presenting this preface to the crisis, van Wolferen then criticizes the current East Asian economic situation, in which international institutions continue to force the Western ideals of transparency and deregulation on most of the East Asian economies while permitting Japan to remain the least transparent economy of the entire region.     

A Closed Book? British Intelligence and East Asia, 1945–1950

This article focuses on British intelligence in China, Japan, and Korea from the end of the Second World War to the outbreak of the Korean War in June 1950. It seeks to ascertain whether the collection of secret intelligence and its subsequent interpretation provided an accurate picture of Soviet and local communist intentions in East Asia. Since the war against Japan began, the region was largely an American responsibility and remained so after 1945 when they occupied Japan, Korea below the 38^th parallel, and sent forces to China. Much of the intelligence effort for East Asia also devolved upon the Americans. Yet, the British retained an intelligence interest there not least because of their extensive commercial assets in China and the region's proximity to Britain's imperial position in Southeast Asia. That interest gathered pace after growing Communist threats inside China and Korea. However, the available intelligence resources for the Far East as a whole were scarce, making it difficult to piece together a clear picture of fast moving events in East Asia.     

俄日两国“北方四岛”领土纠纷问题的博弈分析

博弈论和国家利益等相关理论对于研究俄日两国"北方四岛"领土纠纷问题,有较强的解释力。日本不会放弃对"北方四岛"的索要,而俄罗斯也不会轻易归还或部分归还"北方四岛",甚至必要时会加强在"北方四岛"乃至远东地区的军力部署。俄日两国在资本和自然资源方面分别具有不同的比较优势,在博弈模型的纳什均衡中:俄罗斯选择"据守",日本选择"索要,合作"。"北方四岛"问题将会变得长期化。该领土问题的解决,将取决于未来国际政治经济形势,取决于俄日两国彼此之间权力的消长,取决于两国之间的新的博弈均衡。     

China: Converging to What?

Rather than looking at the entire East Asian region, this article studies one of its major economies--that of China--and questions where it is heading. After outlining the history of the Chinese economy over the past two decades, during which it moved toward an increasingly market-based economy, Perkins contends that the Chinese system is still not close enough to the Anglo-American model to comply with international standards as exemplified by the World Trade Organisation (WTO) or the International Monetary Fund (IMF). China is instead closer to the South Korean and Japanese models, where the state plays a greater role in the economy. Yet even this similarity is limited, making China's economy unique among all others in the current international order. While China must continue to move toward an economy in accordance with international norms, the current situation requires an international organisation that will recognise China's advances rather than demand immediate compliance.     

A Nuclear-Free Middle East – Just Not in the Cards

A scheduled conference to promote a zone free of weapons of mass destruction in the Middle East has renewed hopes for nuclear disarmament in this unstable region, if only innovative diplomacy could take advantage of the current shifts. However, a realistic assessment suggests that optimism is unwarranted. Fundamental strategic considerations related to Iran's nuclear program, Israel's atomic options, and the region's ingrate security architecture remain nearly insurmountable hurdles. Therefore, policymakers should focus first on attaining a resolution of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.     

近代日本的国际秩序观与外交取向

明治初期,维新政府中枢就已深刻地了解到日本所置身的国际社会和国际形势,确立起包括对自己和世界进行重新定位以及日本未来发展方向在内的国际秩序观。近代日本国际秩序思想中的上下秩序认识与欧洲近代国际秩序思想的二重原理体系如出一辙,并在明治维新后迅速与国家政权结合起来,最终确立起对欧美屈从,对东亚邻国强硬的双重外交路线。     

试析中国-日本-东盟战略互动关系

中国、日本与东盟是目前东亚地区权力结构中的三大主导力量，它们之间的关系在很大程度上制约和决定着东亚国际关系格局的基本走向。本文主要借鉴国际政治研究中的三角关系分析方法，分析当前中国-日本-东盟三角关系的特征与发展趋势。     

Balance of Power or the State-to-Nation Balance: Explaining Middle East War-Propensity

The Middle East is one of the most war-prone regions in the international system. What is the most powerful explanation of the war-propensity of this region? I argue that neither realism nor liberalism are able to account for variations in regional war-proneness. Instead, I advance an alternative explanation based on the concept of the state-to-nation balance in the region. This balance refers to the degree of congruence between the division of the region into territorial states and the national aspirations and political identifications of the region's peoples. The balance also refers to the prevalence of strong versus weak states in the region. Thus, I explain the Middle East's high war-proneness by focusing on its relatively low level of state-to-nation balance. This imbalance has led to a powerful combination of revisionist ideologies and state incoherence. While other regions suffer from state incoherence, powerful revisionist nationalist forces, notably pan-nationalist and irredentists (the “Greater State”), aggravate this problem in the Middle East. These revisionist forces are often transborder and are especially powerful in the Middle East because of the high degree of external/transborder incongruence in comparison with all other regions. The combination of nationalist revisionism and state incoherence has made the Middle East more prone to violence than most other regions.     

In the Wake of the East Asian Economic Crisis: Toward an Interdependent but Non-convergent Global System

Donald C. Hellmann here studies the political, societal and cultural forces that created the backdrop for the East Asian financial crisis. He presents three myths about the disaster, emphasizing that this event took place in the context of governmental and economic structures embedded in society and thus not easily modified. These myths include the idea that this region will not become the largest economic region in the next 25 years, that East Asian economies cannot continue to grow without Western-led structural change and that the existing economic and security multilateral institutions require only minor reform to face this new international order. He then goes on to argue that no international institution or world power has filled the new statesmanship vacuum of the post-Cold-War interregnum. A new global system will be necessary to face the challenges of this new balance of power.     

东亚地区秩序的演变及其展望

当前的东亚地区秩序正处于形成过程之中。未来的东亚地区秩序将是地区权力分配、地区内的制度安排以及地区认同和共有观念三种因素综合作用的结果。本文对东亚地区秩序的演变进行回顾,并对其未来的趋势做初步的探讨。     

Russia as a ‘virtual great power’: Implications for its declining role in European and Eurasian security

Instead of analyzing just some recent developments of Russia's domestic, foreign and security policies, this article focuses in particular on mid‐ and long‐term strategic trends and the consequences of Russia's decline for European and Eurasian Security. It argues that Russia is still in a long‐term socio‐economic decline and it is unrealistic to expect that Moscow will regain its former status as a Great Power or even Superpower in the mid‐term future even of its economy and military power improve rapidly and substantially. Against this background, two other powers of the Eurasian landmass, the EU and China will surpass Russia in international standing and secure great power status in the coming decades with far‐reaching consequences for the international system and Russia's security as well as for its role in Europe and Central as well a East Asia. In this light, the article analyzes strategic trends in domestic, foreign and security policies, including the impact of often overlooked factors such as demographic trends and the health crisis, of decentralization, regionalization and fragmentation within the Russian Federation, the future of Russia's military reform policies (including Russia's draft military doctrine of October 1999 and its nuclear illusions) and their implications for Russia's future foreign and security policies.     

日本谋求“战略自主”:举措、动因与制约（英文）

Japan is adopting the most independent and high-profile attitude toward the rest of the world since the end of World War II. Its pursuit of strategic independence will likely shape it into a major power in the international political arena. In addition to affecting Japan's own peace and prosperity, it will also change the future East Asian order.     

The emerging economic architecture of the new Europe

The purpose of this paper is to put into historical context and current perspective the ongoing discussions about the economic changes in Eastern Europe and the institutional responses that they have elicited. The paper will review the economic ‘regime? that existed in East‐West relations until about 1988 and discuss the proposals that are emerging for both new institutions and for older ones. The paper's historical scope will be limited to the period until the opening of the CSCE Helsinki Review Conference, that started in April 1992.     

Japan, Australia and the United States: little NATO or shadow alliance?

In a rapidly changing geopolitical and strategic environmentin which the current US administration is willing to demonstrateto the world that the pursuit of its national interest willnot be encumbered by multilateral forums, what role will USbilateral alliance partners such as Japan and Australia playin redefining the international order, especially in their areaof primary interest – East Asia? This paper examines anAustralian proposal for establishing an informal security dialogueat the ministerial level comprising the United States and twoof its bilateral allies in the Asia-Pacific. While the dialogueprocess has begun, the success of any such structure, however,will be largely coloured by accommodating the very differenthistories and strategic cultures that have developed withinthese countries, and the very different expectations other regionalstates have of them. Through the examples of the war on terrorand the war against Iraq, this paper argues that there is littleevidence of structured co-operation at the ministerial levelin place. Further, any exclusive high-level security dialoguewhich forms around this troika will incur the suspicion of manyEast Asian nations, as it may be seen as a platform for unrestrainedUS unilateralism and exceptionalism, which may in turn havenegative implications for Japan and Australia's continuing rolein Asia.     

Reshuffling the Middle East: A Historical and Political Perspective

The Middle East is experiencing one of the darkest periods in its history and a new regional order is still far from being established. Yet, it appears increasingly clear that few matters will affect its developments more than the ongoing regional demographic dynamics. The region’s history and spatial background provide a framework for approaching these epochal shifts and critically examining the ‘ethnic stabilisation’ thesis, which interprets current demographic movements as a kind of normalisation of the region’s ‘original’ demographics. Instead of this ‘medievalization of the Middle East’, many people in the region are keen on ‘getting back into history’ and ‘regaining possession’ of their multifaceted past: a powerful antidote to the geopolitical reductionism so popular nowadays.     

日本与东盟科技合作研究

日本既是当今世界第二大经济大国,也是一个科技强国。由于人口众多、国土狭小、资源匮乏,长期以来日本走的是一条面向全球发展经济的道路。加上日本地理上邻近东南亚,相互往来历史悠久,双方在社会、政治、经济和文化等领域保持着密切的关系,因而战后日本一直十分重视对东南亚地区的市场开拓。早在1977年,日本首相福田纠夫在首届日本—东盟首脑会议结束后,就提出了要与东盟发展“对等的伙伴关系”和“心心相印的信任关系”。以此为契机,日本在经济、社会和文化等众多领域与东盟进行合作并提供了大量的政府开发援助(ODA)①,并且随着其产业技…     

Reviving the Kansai cotton industry: engineering expertise and knowledge sharing in the early Meiji period

This article analyses the acquisition and application of new cotton spinning technologies in Japan in the early Meiji period, and the ways in which this knowledge helped to mobilise existing resources of human and financial capital. It focusses on the early development of three pioneering firms, the Hirano, Amagasaki and Settsu companies, all of which after 1918 became part of Dainihon Spinning, one of the ‘Big Three’ textile firms of prewar Japan. By looking at the ways in which these companies diffused technical and other expertise, secured finance, and addressed the problems that had confounded earlier initiatives, it shows how technological knowhow from outside the Osaka region was a key factor that enabled the mobilisation of the capital and expertise of business and personal networks in Kansai, and in the process rebuilt the region's traditional predominance in cotton production, laying the foundations for the industry's global competitiveness.     

Strategic Restraint in the Near Seas

Although the shift back towards a more normal international order seems inevitable, its timing and manner are not. The transformation will be smoother and America's security will be greater if the U.S. adapts to changing circumstances by exercising restraint and placing greater responsibility on allied and other associated states. Ultimately, the status of the Near Seas matters most to nearby nations which are both prosperous and friendly. They must do more to preserve an open political and economic order in East Asia.     

90年代国际产业竞争对日本经济的影响

20世纪80年代末90年代初,随着冷战的结束,贸易自由化、全球化蓬勃发展,各国纷纷加强国家干预,努力提高本国产业的国际竞争力。美国政府采取扶植战略性产业、"国家出口战略"等政策措施,使美国产业的国际竞争力明显提高。欧洲工业经过革新,在传统工业和新型工业上再次位居世界前列。随着东亚产业竞争优势的出现,日本不但在传统产业而且在高技术产业上面临东亚等新型工业化国家的激烈竞争。因此,90年代美欧以及东亚产业竞争力的提高,导致日本产业竞争力相对下降,对外出口增长缓慢,日本国内出现产能过剩,从而加剧了日本经济的衰退。