Case-based reasoning,legal reasoning,and the study of politics

Case-based reasoning (CBR) is an active area of research within artificial intelligence that emphasizes the function of memory in problem-solving. It proceeds from the premise that people cope with new problems or situations by reusing the strategies that have proved effective in similar situations in the past. Rather than deduction or the application of rules, the basic inferential process is that of recognition. Because the reasoning characteristic of politics is largely of this type, we suggest that the concepts and formalisms developed within this branch of artificial intelligence can be usefully applied to the study of political institutions and political behavior. But we argue, critically, that if CBR is to be applied to politics, it must be generalized to accommodate multiple agents who act repeatedly in multiple tasks. We outline what these extensions to CBR would involve, using the history of liability in tort law as a worked example.     

Disagreement,Diversity, and Participation: Examining the Properties of Several Measures of Political Discussion Network Characteristics

Recent advances demonstrate that individuals think and act differently depending upon the political views of their discussion partners. However, issues of both conceptualization and measurement remain. We argue that some of these issues result from conflating what are two distinct characteristics of political discussion: disagreement and diversity. The purpose of this paper is to provide clarity to this literature by more formally distinguishing these two concepts. In doing so, we recommend a preferred measure of each. Substantively, we demonstrate that although exposure to disagreement is associated negatively with political participation, including the decision to vote, exposure to diversity is unrelated to participation. The evidence supports our argument that more formally separating the concepts of disagreement and diversity will help scholars better identify how and when social networks matter for political attitudes and behavior.     

Information sharing,secrecy and trust among law enforcement and secret service institutions in the European Union

Abstract

Transnational information sharing among security agencies in the European Union and beyond has grown considerably more important over the past decades. Centralised databases and numerous formal and informal networks now facilitate cooperation and information sharing. However, sharing intelligence may not only conflict with the protection of fundamental rights (data protection/privacy; presumption of innocence), but also with the organisational culture of institutions that are built upon secrecy. Police agencies often keep knowledge about individual cases and their strategies secret as long as possible. Intelligence services build their work and strategies upon secrecy even more. This paper analyses the variations of secrecy that can be observed for police agencies and secret services, and the relationship between information sharing among security agencies, secrecy, trust, transparency and accountability. In a normative perspective, the paper explores answers to the questions of how secret the work of security agencies should be in democratic rule of law systems and how accountability can be improved without making these institutions work less effectively.     

Artificial Morality. Concepts,Issues and Challenges

Artificial morality is an emerging field in artificial intelligence which explores whether and how artificial systems can be furnished with moral capacities. Since this will have a deep impact on our lives it is important to discuss the possibility of artificial morality and its implications for individuals and society. Starting with some examples of artificial morality, the article turns to conceptual issues that are important for delineating the possibility and scope of artificial morality, in particular, what an artificial moral agent is; how morality should be understood in the context of artificial morality; and how human and artificial morality compare. Outlined next is how moral capacities can be implemented in artificial systems in general and in more detail with respect to an elder care system. On the basis of these findings some of the arguments that can be found in public discourse about artificial morality will be reviewed and the prospects and challenges of artificial morality are discussed.     

Do multilingual androids dream of a better life in Australia? Effectiveness of information technology for government translation to support refugees and migrants in Australia

Without high‐quality translation of online information about government support and services, refugees and migrants from culturally and linguistically diverse backgrounds in Australia experience a major barrier to improved health, employment, education and social outcomes. Recent advances in the ability of Google Translate, Skype Translator and other forms of machine translation that use artificial intelligence can help translate government information to better support refugees and migrants but they bring the risk of ineffective communication, and exclusion from services that could positively impact on settlement experiences and daily life. Evidence suggests that government agencies are likely to be using human translators for most translation work, but the degree to which any form of information technology is used, how it may be best applied and the associated effects are not known. This study systematically reviewed the peer‐reviewed and grey literature to determine effective ways of using information technology for translating government information to refugees and migrants from culturally and linguistically diverse backgrounds in Australia. Included studies were analysed to identify techniques and other characteristics of translation, information technology and language support more broadly, and outcomes on education, health, social and other refugee and migrant experiences relating to translated information. Our review found a small evidence base featuring studies with strong evaluation demonstrating effective forms of ‘language support’ for refugees and migrants from culturally and linguistically diverse backgrounds in Australia in a broad sense. However, there is a major gap in knowledge that is contributing to barriers in the use of online government information in Australia. In particular, there is an absence of evidence demonstrating what is effective in the use of machine translation with artificial intelligence, websites and other kinds of information technology for translating government information with refugees and migrants from culturally and linguistically diverse backgrounds. The oversight risks further excluding already marginalised groups from services and support. This paper makes a number of suggestions practitioners can take to address the issue and guidelines for future research.     

Reflections on Technology and Intelligence Systems

Abstract

The impact of individual technological innovations on intelligence operations is often discussed, but the influence of technological change per se on intelligence systems remains less well understood. The historical literature on this topic is uneven – filled with detailed narratives on certain aspects, but also with surprisingly little attention to larger trends and their meaning. This is significant for two reasons. First, it means we have an incomplete understanding of what happened in the past, particularly for the ‘analog revolution’ in intelligence in the twentieth century. Second, it leaves us with few clues for understanding another wave of technological change washing over the intelligence profession at this time (a ‘digital revolution’). Looking at the second revolution in the light of the first can give us important clues to what to watch for in coming years.     

Harry Howe Ransom and American intelligence studies

In this interview Harry Howe Ransom, a leading American scholar of intelligence studies over the past 50 years, discusses how he entered the field and his views regarding some key intelligence topics. Foremost on his research agenda has been the study of whether in democratic societies secret agencies can operate side-by-side with an otherwise open government without violating basic civil liberties – the difficult balancing act between the need for security, on the one hand, and the cherished value of liberty, on the other. He has also been a leading critic of intelligence politicization, noting in this interview that there is a tendency for intelligence systems to provide information they think their top bosses want to hear, and for the top bosses – more often than not – to do what they wish in spite of intelligence to the contrary. Professor Ransom began his research into intelligence as a young political scientist at Harvard University and continued this work throughout his subsequent distinguished career at Vanderbilt University and into his retirement years.     

Counter-Terrorism,Security and Intelligence in the EU: Governance Challenges for Collection,Exchange and Analysis

In this article we seek to address the emerging role of the European Union (EU) as a security and intelligence actor from the perspective of counter-terrorism. Intelligence as a process and product has been strongly promoted by the EU as a useful and necessary tool in the fight against terrorism, radicalization, organized crime and public order problems. A range of agencies has been established that collect, analyze and operationalize intelligence in view of strategically defined security threats. Examples are Europol and Frontex. This article makes an inventory of their roles and competences in the field of intelligence and looks at the list of instruments that encourage the sharing of intelligence between different law enforcement and security agencies. Moreover, it is argued in this article that as intelligence becomes more hybrid and as the EU only holds light powers of oversight on ownership and integrity of data, considerable governance challenges lurk around the corner. As ‘intelligence’ is usually a complex and sensitive product, it often travels outside formal bureaucratic channels, which undermines accountability and transparency of where, how and for what purpose the intelligence was gathered.     

The civilian's visual security paradox: how open source intelligence practices create insecurity for civilians in warzones

ABSTRACT

Images taken by civilians and shared online have become an important source of conflict intelligence. This article explores issues around how states and non-state actors appropriate civilians’ images to produce intelligence about conflict, critically scrutinizing a practice often called open source or social media intelligence. It argues that image appropriation for open-source intelligence production creates a new kind of visual security paradox in which civilians can be endangered by their everyday visual practices because their digital images can be appropriated by outside actors as conflict intelligence. The transformation of everyday images into conflict evidence relies on what Barthes termed the photographic paradox, the paradox that while a photograph is clearly not the reality it depicts, the photograph is casually interpreted as a copy of that reality. When images are appropriated as conflict intelligence this photographic paradox translates into a security paradox. A visual security argument can be made without the intention or knowledge of the image producer, who then comes to perform the role on an intelligence agent. Yet civilians in warzones can hardly refrain from producing any images when they need to call attention to their plight, and to stay in contact with friends and relatives. The paradox, then, is that such vital visual signs of life can rapidly become sources of danger for the civilian. This civilian visual security paradox, it is argued, demands that intelligence actors respect the protected status of civilians in their online collection practices. So far, however, there is little sign of such respect.     

它山之石 如何攻玉？——从公共管理视角看中国知识精英学习外国经验的心路历程

从公共管理的视角,回顾了中国100多年来,特别是最近几十年来,学习外国经验的心路历程。提出,东西方国家差别虽有,但这些差别并不足以用来论证东西方差别的本质性,也不足以支持东西方不能相互学习的结论。用东方还是西方作为思考和比较的基点,来审视国家的治理模式和社会的发展道路,不是一个合理的思维范式。过去被使用,不是因为它理论上的合理性,而是因为它的方便性和情感性。从中国近百年的历史来看,这一方便性和情感性事实上负面影响了中国对外学习的过程,因而有必要正本清源,从理论上给予修正。公共管理的学习和学科发展只有跳出了东方西方之争、最新和过去之争,用现代社会发展理论来审视和解释国家的治理和社会的发展,用科学和社会发展的态度,审视学科建设和管理实践的需要,才能最大限度地从人类文明的成果中汲取必要的养分,辅助中华文明的成长和发展。     

Spreading intelligence

ABSTRACT

Defining intelligence is not just a terminological but also a political question. Intelligence methods are spreading quickly in the contemporary security landscape, and defining intelligence gives us a clearer idea of what we are in fact spreading, and therefore also of the political and social consequences that this may entail. When using intelligence methods in, say, policing, public administration or immigration services, we import a specific adversarial logic and thereby transform the social relationships that these regulatory and administrative practices support and rest upon. In this paper, I shall propose a new definition of intelligence in order to analyse the social transformations that may be produced by the logical structure implicit in the concept of intelligence.     

The Homeopathic Image,or, Trauma,Intimacy and Poetry

Abstract

The concept of trauma has recently expanded its reach to include what otherwise might be understood as intimate experience. This overextension represents a threat to our ability to conceptualize intimate experiences, hence to use concepts to engage in intimate communication. An analysis of Wallace Stevens' poem "The Auroras of Autumn", demonstrates how poetry provides a supplemental vehicle for the communication of intimate experiences. Poetry is therefore characterized as an essential element in ethical life.     

Intelligence Failures: What Are They Really and What Do We Do about Them?

Intelligence failures occur for more reasons than just sloppy tradecraft and are often attributable to decision-makers as well as to the intelligence community. Before exploring the subjective nature of intelligence failures, this article first discusses three foundational concepts underlying them: process vs. product, fact vs. judgment, and prediction. It then outlines major components of intelligence failures: accuracy, surprise, and the role of decision-makers, particularly unrealistic expectations and the use or non-use of intelligence. The article concludes with a discussion of what the intelligence community and decision-makers can do to deal with these three components.     

Intelligence Analysis

American intelligence analysts have been severely criticized for failing to anticipate the 9/11 Al Qaeda attacks and for the ill-advised invasion of Iraq. The resulting Intelligence Community reorganization, intended to repair these presumed deficiencies, reflects a misunderstanding of what intelligence analysts can do and where responsibility for political and military decisions lie. In fact, the Intelligence Community is far more diversified in its tasks than is generally realized. Where analysis is done and for whom makes a large difference in its effectiveness. Moreover, changing technology is altering how it is done, where, and by whom. The border between what is ‘strategic’ or ‘national’ intelligence and ‘tactical’ intelligence is much diminished. At the same time, intelligence analysts all too often fail to incorporate the growing amounts of open source information, as well as analytic concepts and theories available from academic and scholarly literature.     

Alexa,Alert Me When the Revolution Comes: Gender,Affect, and Labor in the Age of Home-Based Artificial Intelligence

The fantasy of automation is one of liberation from alienating tasks. Today, domestic artificial intelligence (AI) enacts this dream of frictionlessly offloading monotony. This article deploys theories of Marxist feminism, affective labor to interrogate domestic AI’s unprecedented promise of absorbing forms of labor we hardly acknowledged that we did. While these devices make the reproductive labor of the household legible as labor, we interrogate their quasi-emancipatory promise. We argue that devices such as Amazon’s Alexa or Google Home elide and reproduce the gendered and racialized dimensions of domestic labor, streamline this labor for capture by capital, and heighten the very affective dynamics they promise to ameliorate. Only critical political theories of work can illuminate the unfulfilled transformations and ongoing dominations of gender, race, and affect that saturate labor with domestic AI – expressed, we contend, by re-articulating the framework of the “social factory” to that of the “social server.”     

Comparing US and UK Intelligence Assessment in the Early Cold War: NSC-68, April 1950

US and British intelligence assessments regarding the Soviet Union during the early years of the Cold War contained substantial differences despite the remarkable level of cooperation and information sharing that existed between the respective services in the period. Using NSC-68 as a "pivot", this article examines these discrepancies as well as those similarities that did exist, considering their significance and evolution in an effort to understand what factors drove and shaped intelligence analysis on both sides of the Atlantic.     

Our wildest imagination: violence,narrative, and sympathetic identification

ABSTRACT

At this polarizing moment in American politics identifying with the experiences of others feels especially difficult, but it is vital for sharing a world in common. Scholars in a variety of disciplines have argued that narratives, and especially literary ones, can help us cultivate this capacity by soliciting sympathetic identification with particular characters. In doing so, narratives can help us to be more ethically and political responsive to other human beings. This is a limited view of the potential for narratives to solicit sympathetic identification, and it prevents us from identifying and grappling with our resistances to identifying with others. In this article I propose a more expansive view – inspired by Elizabeth Costello, a character in JM Coetzee’s novel of the same name – that there are no bounds to our capacities for sympathetic identification. Through critical readings of Waiting for the Barbarians and Animal Farm I explore the possibility that we might identify with people who cause others to suffer, and perhaps even with animals too. Both sorts of identification engender fierce resistance. Identifying with those who cause suffering demands that we grapple with our own capacities for cruelty and violence. Identifying with animals demands that we confront what is animal in ourselves – the perilous instincts that, unmoderated, incline us to aggression. Acknowledging and working through – without rejecting or disavowing – our capacities for cruelty and our animal instincts is necessary for the practices of sympathetic identification upon which sharing a world depends.     

Democracy and the depth of intelligence sharing: why regime type hardly matters*

What explains variation in the depth of intelligence sharing? Realism provides the standard answer: shared threat motivates deeper cooperation. In a recent article, Ryan Bock offers a liberal antidote to this conventional view, leveraging insights on domestic regime type to explain why Anglo-Soviet sharing remained shallow despite the German threat during 1941–5. Several shortcomings in Bock’s innovative study undermine his main arguments and findings. A reevaluation of the Anglo-Soviet case and a cursory examination of nine other intelligence-sharing relationships during the Second World War reveal a spread of variation in the depth of cooperation that cannot be explained by a liberal regime-type argument, a realist threat perspective, or other prevailing International Relations paradigms. Marrying insights from interdisciplinary scholarship on gossip and embedded exchange, we propose a novel alternative framework that suggests plausible solutions to puzzles left behind by other accounts, thus opening a new line of inquiry for future research on intelligence cooperation.     

Why study political cycles?

Abstract. Throughout the history of social science, cyclical theories have had an intrinsic fascination for the explanation of social change. Confronted with the manyfold deviations and fluctuations of social development which could not be explained by linear-evolutionary, let alone equilibrium theory, cyclical concepts claim to improve theory building. These concepts are based on the assumption that empirical deviations from a trend should not be handled as random error but can be interpreted substantially. Correspondingly the change from equilibrium to cyclical theory demarcates the changed perception of social systems from static to dynamic stability. Therefore the newer concepts, however, no longer thematize holistic changes of a social system but componential changes within a system. This article discusses the problems arising from this changed perspective, in terms of definition and statistical assessment of cycles. Further, three groups of micro-level explanations causing cyclical development are discussed: predator-prey and saturation concepts and theories of institutional inertia.