Modernization is alive and well and living in . . .

Democracy in Developing Countries, edited by Larry Diamond, Juan J. Linz and Seymour Martin Lipset. Lynne Rienner Publishers, Boulder, Co.; Adamantine Press Ltd, London. (Vol. 1, in preparation; vol. 2, 1988; vols. 3 and 4, 1989.) Volume Two, Africa, xxix+314 pp., maps. £25.00 hardback, £12.50 paperback. ISBN 1–55587–039–2 and 1–55587–040–6. Volume Three, Asia, xxix+489 pp. £29.50 hardback, £12.50 paperback. ISBN 1–55587–041–4 and 1–55587–042–2. Volume Three, Latin America. xxix+515 pp. £29.50 hardback, £12.50 paperback. ISBN 1–55587–043–0 and 1–55587–044–9.     

Recent Trends in U.S. Income and Expenditure Poverty

After many years of following similar trends, U.S. poverty rates measured by household spending in data from the U.S. Consumer Expenditure Survey (CE) fell between 2000 and 2008, while poverty measured by income rose. Comparisons of spending and income poverty in the CE with income poverty in other surveys, spending data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics, and a time series of employment levels, find the CE to be the outlier. The findings do not bear directly on the primary use of CE data in providing category weights for calculation of the Consumer Price Index, but do require explanation not available in CE public‐use files.     

Polarization and correct voting in U.S. presidential elections

Although some political pundits have expressed concern that political polarization has a deleterious effect on voter behavior, others have argued that polarization may actually benefit voters by presenting citizens with clear choices between the two major parties. We take up this question by examining the effects of polarization on the quality of voter decision making in U.S. presidential elections. We find that ideological polarization among elites, along with ideological sorting and affective polarization among voters, all contribute to the probability of citizens’ voting correctly. Furthermore, affective polarization among the citizenry if anything strengthens, not weakens, the influence of political knowledge on voter decision-making. We conclude that to the extent that normative democratic theory supposes that people vote for candidates who share their interests, polarization has had a positive effect on voter decision-making quality, and thus democratic representation, in the United States.     

Preemptive and reactive spending in U.S. House races

This paper examines the spending behavior of candidates for the U.S. House of Representatives. Particular attention is paid to the timing of receipts and expenditures over the complete 2-year election cycle. Incumbents raise and spend large amounts of money very early in the race, and this preemptive spending may have a great impact on the selection of challengers and therefore on electoral outcomes. In addition, a model of reactive spending is tested for the general election period. Incumbents' expenditures are a function of the underlying partisan division in the district, the strength of the challenge, and candidates' feelings of vulnerability. Incumbents are strategic actors who attempt to maximize their chances of reelection. Early in the term, they spend preemptively in an effort to influence the selection of their challengers. Later in the term, they spend in reaction to the strength of their challengers' campaign. The role of money in congressional campaigns is neither simple nor direct. More attention needs to be given to the strategic uses of money in the period leading up to the general election campaign as well as to the dynamics of receipts and expenditures over an entire election cycle.     

Bread and Peace Voting in U.S. Presidential Elections

A simple ``Bread and Peace'' model shows that aggregate votes forPresident in postwar elections were determined entirely byweighted-average growth of real disposable personal income percapita during the incumbent party's term and the cumulativenumbers of American military personnel killed in action as aresult of U.S. intervention in the Korean and Vietnamese civilwars. The model is subjected to robustness tests against twenty-two variations in functional form inspired by the extensiveliterature on presidential voting. Not one of these variationsadds value to the Bread and Peace model or significantly perturbsits coefficients.     

Issue and leader voting in U.S. presidential elections

The “Issues and Leaders” model shows that aggregate votes for President in U.S. elections from 1972 to 2012 can be accurately predicted from people's perceptions of the candidates' issue handling competence and leadership qualities. For the past five elections, the model's ex ante forecasts, calculated three to two months prior to Election Day, were competitive with those from the best of eight established political economy models. Model accuracy substantially improved closer to Election Day. The Election Eve forecasts missed the actual vote shares by, on average, little more than one percentage point and thus reduced the error of the Gallup pre-election poll by 30%. The model demonstrates that the direct influence of party identification on vote choice decreases over the course of the campaign, whereas issues gain importance. The model has decision-making implications in that it advises candidates to engage in agenda setting and to increase their perceived issue-handling and leadership competence.     

Public Resource Allocation and Electoral Systems in the U.S. and Japan

This paper introduces alternative measures of net budgetallocation and legislative representation. They are neutral tothe size of total expenditure and tax collection as well as tochanges in the population and the size of the legislature,which makes them suitable for panel data exercises andinternational comparative studies. Regression analyses of 50U.S. states and 47 Japanese prefectures using these indiceshighlight similarities and differences in public resourceallocation between respective democracies that reflect theirpolitical and electoral systems.     

Governance and Popular Involvement in Local Antipoverty Strategies in the U.K. and the Netherlands

This article deals centrally with the relationship between new interactive governance arrangements and democratization through a comparison of mechanisms for popular involvement in local antipoverty strategies in the U.K. and the Netherlands. Drawing on urban case studies in North Tyneside and Rotterdam, the article argues that, despite a diversity of governance models and novel attempts at popular involvement at the local level, new governance arrangements are not more democratic. Democratization of governance, rather, requires intervention along an explicit participatory ideology external to the internal logic of interactive governance, one where all social groups and organizations contribute on a mutually reinforcing and egalitarian basis. A more democratic governance system, moreover, needs to take a rational perspective on the nature of the relationship between state and civil society and to retain a normative and political conception of the “third-sector” under prevailing neoliberal conditions. While recognizing the normative and utopian tone of these suggestions, possible characteristics of such a project are outlined.     

Leadership and Public Service Motivation in U.S. Federal Agencies

ABSTRACT

This analysis of over 6,900 federal employees’ responses to the Merit Principles Survey 2000 examines the influences of leadership and motivational variables, and especially public service motivation, on the “outcome” variables job satisfaction, perceived performance, quality of work, and turnover intentions. CFA confirms a factor structure for transformation-oriented leadership (TOL), public service-oriented motivation (PSOM), transaction-oriented leadership (TSOL), and extrinsically oriented motivation (EOM). Multivariate regression analysis shows that TOL and PSOM, as well as interaction effects of TOL-TSOL and TOL-PSOM, have strong relations to the outcome variables. SEM analysis examines direct and indirect effects of the main variables. Overall, the results indicate that TOL and PSOM have more positive relations to the outcome variables than do TSOL and EOM. The combination of high TOL and high PSOM has the strongest positive, and hence desirable, relation with organizational outcomes. Among this very large sample of federal employees, those who perceived their leader as displaying TOL (i.e., leadership that is encouraging, supportive, informative, and that emphasizes high standards) also expressed higher levels of PSOM and higher levels of job satisfaction, perceived performance and work quality, and lower turnover intentions. The SEM analysis further indicates that TOL has these effects by way of empowerment, goal clarification, and PSOM, and is distinct from TSOL (transaction-oriented) leadership, which shows no such relationships.     

Income inequality and economic freedom in the U.S. states

This paper examines the impact of economic freedom on income inequality using cross-sectional data for U.S. states. While previous research has explored this relationship internationally, the results have been conflicting. In addition, while it seems obvious that the large institutional differences across countries will impact income inequality, it isn’t so obvious that the smaller variation in policies among U.S. states can have a measurable impact. Can improvements in income inequality be used as a justification for marginal pro-market policy reforms at the state level, or is this argument applicable only to national-level institutional reforms?     

Candidate Valence and Ideological Positions in U.S. House Elections

We examine the relationship between the valence qualities of candidates and the ideological positions they take in U.S. House elections based on a study of the 2006 midterm elections. Our design enables us to distinguish between campaign and character dimensions of candidate valence and to place candidates and districts on the same ideological scale. Incumbents with a personal‐character advantage are closer ideologically to their district preferences, while disadvantaged challengers take more extreme policy positions. Contrary to conventional wisdom, challengers can reap electoral rewards by taking more extreme positions relative to their districts. We explore a possible mechanism for this extremism effect by demonstrating that challengers closer to the extreme received greater financial contributions, which enhanced their chances of victory. Our results bear on theories of representation that include policy and valence, although the interactions between these two dimensions may be complex and counterintuitive.     

Abortion and Partisanship in the 104th U.S. Congress

The new Republican majorities in the 104th Congress conducted a coherent campaign to erode abortion rights. Avoiding a hopeless attempt to overturn the 1973 Roe v. Wade decision, congressional Republicans pressed numerous anti-abortion initiatives. Analysis of the votes on those initiatives reveals a clear partisan pattern – a large majority of congressional Republicans are hostile to abortion rights while most congressional Democrats usually act to protect and even extend them. Therefore, the liberal versus conservative conflict which characterises the congressional parties on economic issues is also visible in the abortion issue.     

美国联邦政府的宽带薪资试验及其启示

20世纪80年代以来,随着内外部环境的变化,建立在严格的职位分类基础之上的美国联邦政府传统薪资系统受到越来越多的挑战。为此,美国联邦政府开始探索适用于政府部门的新型薪资结构,宽带薪资试验就是这种尝试之一。三项宽带薪资试验对于美国政府机构乃至美国私营企业的薪资体系创新都产生了深远的影响。试验不仅揭示了宽带薪资是公共部门薪资体系的发展方向之一,而且对我国公共部门的薪资体系改革具有重要的借鉴意义。