Northern Ireland: 20 Years On

To speak of what is exceptional about Northern Ireland today requires a provocative sense of irony, for constitutionally it can be argued Northern Ireland has become one of the most stable parts of the United Kingdom. The fact if not the value of the Union has become more deeply entrenched as both the fact and the value of the Union have come more openly into play elsewhere, even in England. Nevertheless, Northern Ireland is not immune from larger political developments and fantastic uncertainties attend consideration of the next twenty years at different levels of analysis. This article considers these uncertainties according to two possible scenarios, one involving a nationalist narrative and the other involving a unionist narrative. The key issues in each scenario and narrative are the constitutional debate in the United Kingdom, especially the referendum on Scottish independence; the future of the European Union and the United Kingdom's relationship to it; and the changing electoral demographic within Northern Ireland. If Northern Ireland's future is inextricably linked to uncertainty this makes it the rule and not the exception today.     

Perestroika 20 Years Later

Going through a protracted period of transition since the end of the Cold War, the world order in the making is neither what was nor what it is yet to become. It is in “the middle of the future.” To get our bearings in this uncertain transition, we explore the two grand post‐Cold War narratives—“The End of History” as posited by Francis Fukuyama and “The Clash of Civilizations” posited by the late Samuel Huntington. Mikhail Gorbachev looks back at his policies that brought the old order to collapse. The British philosopher John Gray critiques the supposed “universality” of liberalism and, with Homi Bhabha, sees a world of hybrid identities and localized cultures. The Singaporean theorist Kishore Mahbubani peels away the “veneer” of Western dominance. Amartya Sen, the economist and Nobel laureate, assesses whether democratic India or autocratic China is better at building “human capacity” in their societies.     

North Korea Will Disarm in Two Years

"A promise to five powers — especially since China is involved — is more likely to be kept than a promise to one. At the end of the day, the North Koreans will come around and disarm. I believe they will agree to disarm within two years. Their economy is so weak they can't hold out much longer."     

改革二十年--戈尔巴乔夫访谈录

[编译者按]2005年3月11日是戈尔巴乔夫担任苏共总书记的20周年纪念日.俄罗斯"灯塔"广播电台为此于3月10日专门邀请戈尔巴乔夫就听众和网友所提出的在这20年间所发生的许多问题进行了现场解答.以访谈录原有基本格式和主要内容为基础,编译者将其分为六个部分.     

国际社会盛赞新中国成立60周年

在新中国成立60周年之际，国际社会对这一重大事件普遍给予高度关注，盛赞新中国取得的光辉成就，热议新中国取得巨大成就的原因。     

Northern Ireland: 20 Years After the Cease-Fires

In the closing months of 1994, the principal paramilitary organizations in Northern Ireland declared that their campaigns of violence were at an end. The cease-fires called by republican and loyalist groupings represented the most significant heralds of a complex process of conflict transformation that continues to unfold even twenty years on. In this introduction, we set out to map the key developments that have shaped the tortuous narrative of the Northern Irish ‘peace process’, thereby providing the historical backdrop for the articles that follow. While remarkable progress has been made over the two decades since the paramilitary cease-fires, the political context and future of the region remain rather more fraught than is often assumed abroad. It is perhaps best, then, to speak of the six counties in terms not of resolution but rather of ambiguity. Twenty years on from the optimism that greeted the paramilitary cease-fires, Northern Ireland retains the essential ‘inbetweenness’ of a political space that has moved from a ‘long war’ through a ‘long peace’ and into a profoundly undecided future.     

The "End Of History" 20 Years Later

Twenty years after the fall of the Berlin Wall and the triumphant celebrations of the West, a new chapter of history has opened featuring the rising powers of Asia, led by China. Though embracing free markets, China has looked to its Confucian traditions instead of liberal democracy as the best route to good governance. Will China manage to achieve high growth and a harmonious society through a strong state and long‐range planning that puts messy Western democracy and its short‐term mindset to shame? Or, in the end, will the weak rule of law and absence of political accountability in a one‐party state undermine its promise? Francis Fukuyama and Kishore Mahbubani, the Singaporean thinker who has become the apostle of non‐Western modernity, debate these issues. In this section we also republish a collective memoir by George H.W. Bush, Mikhail Gorbachev, Margaret Thatcher and François Mitterrand, recalling their fears and hopes two decades ago as they brought the Cold War to an end.     

中国对发展中国家外交战略六十年

为总结建国60年来的中国外交经验,本文对中国对发展中国家外交战略进行了总结与分析。改革开放前30年中国对发展中国家的外交战略主要包括:支持发展中国家的民族解放事业和建立国际新秩序的斗争;对发展中国家给予无偿经济援助;支持发展中国家的团结合作。改革开放后30年中国对发展中国家的外交战略主要包括:中国"永远站在第三世界一边",但是"千万不要当头";不搞划线外交,致力于同所有发展中国家发展友好合作关系;从单边经济援助转向互利共赢和共同发展的新型经济关系;履行国际责任,积极参与国际热点问题的解决。