以色列右翼势力及对中东和平进程的影响

右翼思潮对以色列犹太人的影响由来已久、根深蒂固.以色列右翼势力的生存土壤既有源于苦难历史遭遇的折射和独特犹太宗教文化背景的滋养,也有现实矛盾冲突中的复杂原因.以色列实行议会民主制,宽松的政治环境给右翼势力的发展提供舞台.阿以冲突的复杂环境也使右翼势力乘势壮大.虽然目前右翼势力还不能完全主导以色列政治,但在议会中占有相当的席位,影响以色列政府的政策制定和政局稳定,并在相当程度上左右中东和平的发展进程,导致其仍具长期性、曲折性和不确定性.     

Anchoring the Peace: Civil Society Actors in Peace Accords and Durable Peace

Is peace more likely to prevail when the peace accord includes civil society actors such as religious groups, women's organizations, and human rights groups? This is the first statistical study that explores this issue. The article develops key claims in previous research regarding the role of civil society actors and durable peace, and proposes a set of hypotheses that focus on legitimacy in this process. The hypotheses are examined by employing unique data on the inclusion of civil society actors in all peace agreements in the post–Cold War period. The statistical analysis shows that inclusion of civil society actors in the peace settlement increases the durability of peace. The results further demonstrate that peace accords with involvement from civil society actors and political parties in combination are more likely to see peace prevail. The findings also suggest that inclusion of civil society has a particularly profound effect on the prospects for overall peace in nondemocratic societies.     

From Aftermath to Peace: Reflections on a Photography of Peace

International Relations (IR) literature on the visual construction of the international does not systematically engage with the visualisation of peace. In this article, I make photographic discourses available to IR scholars interested in the visual construction of the international and invite IR scholars to substantialise these discourses based on their specialist knowledge on war, violence, conflict and peace. I engage with aftermath photography by challenging its almost exclusive focus on war and the legacy of violence. Furthermore, I engage with Fred Ritchin's notion of peace photography and Cynthia Weber's attempts at visualising peace. Problematising claims to universality, generalisability and causality, I emphasise that the relation between images and peace is episodic, not causal; that visions of peace, reflecting specific cultural configurations, cannot claim universal validity; and that peace photography has to move beyond aftermath photography's focus on the legacies of the past. Finally, I briefly look at the work of Joel Meyerowitz and Rineke Dijkstra, the one displaying aftermath as a beginning sustaining power, the other photographically accompanying a person's adaptation to a new, more peaceful environment.     

Unipolarity,Hegemony, and the New Peace

Despite a few persistent, high-profile conflicts in the Middle East, the world is experiencing an era of unprecedented peace and stability. Many scholars have offered explanations for this “New Peace,” to borrow Steven Pinker's phrase, but few have devoted much time to the possibility that US hegemony has brought stability to the system. This paper examines the theoretical, empirical, and psychological foundations of the hegemonic-stability explanation for the decline in armed conflict. Those foundations are rather thin, as it turns out, and a review of relevant insights from political psychology suggests that unipolarity and stability are probably epiphenomenal. The New Peace can in all likelihood continue without US dominance and should persist long after unipolarity comes to an end.     

胡佛战争、革命与和平研究所

斯坦福大学胡佛战争、革命与和平研究所(TheHoover Institution on War,Revolution and Peace,简称胡佛研究所)是保守派思想库,素有“右翼思潮的思想库”之称。该所在对共产主义及社会主义国家的研究方面独树一帜,此外还侧重于研究世界上文明冲突对政治经济造成的影响。具有鲜明的反共立场,而且这种立场有着深厚的历史渊源。小布什、里根、尼克松等共和党人竞选总统时,都有胡佛研究所     

巴以和平曙光再现,和平道路仍然曲折艰难

布什总统第二任期内会更多关注巴、以冲突。温和派阿巴斯接替阿拉法特,巴勒斯坦进入后阿拉法特时代。沙龙与工党组成联合政府。中东再现和平曙光。巴以恢复和谈还须克服障碍。和平进程将是脆弱而艰难的,出现反复甚至逆转的可能性始终存在。     

War, Peace, and the Invisible Hand: Positive Political Externalities of Economic Globalization

Studies of signaling in international relations reveal how punishing bluffing ex post through domestic audience costs or opposition groups facilitates credible ex ante communication among states and reduces the impetus toward war. Global integration of economic markets may also reduce uncertainty by making talk costly ex ante. Autonomous global capital can respond dramatically to political crises. To the degree that globalization forces leaders to choose between pursuing competitive political goals and maintaining economic stability, it reveals the intensity of leaders' preferences, reducing the need for military contests as a method of identifying mutually acceptable bargains. Asymmetric integration can dampen the pacific effects of globalization, but asymmetry does not in itself exacerbate dispute behavior. We present the theory and offer preliminary corroborative tests of implications of the argument on postwar militarized disputes.     

Ethnos,demos and democratization: A comparison of the Czech Republic,Hungary and Poland

With the collapse of European communism, Western observers and leaders fostered new expectations about the relative likelihood for post‐communist nations to ‘join the West’. The Czech Republic, Poland and Hungary were seen as least problematic candidates, sponsored especially by the German leadership. A troubling issue however is the emerging pattern of ethnos‐politics, identity politics based on blood ties, as opposed to demos‐politics, civic politics based on universal territorial citizenship. In the Czech Republic this ethnos‐politics appears most clearly as anti‐Romany racism and governmental discrimination. In Poland and Hungary, centre‐right parties have developed a politics of ethnic patriotism which labels opponents as traitors and foreign elements. In these nations, political liberalism has been too weak and often too opportunist to offer a viable demos‐politics as a counterweight. Instead, the ex‐communist successor parties in Poland and Hungary have re‐emerged as the mass base for a non‐nationalist demos‐politics. The West has yet to take seriously the new ethnos‐politics, prefering to give priority to economic and foreign‐policy compatibility. The admission of these nations into the European Union or North Atlantic Treaty Organization would give new legitimacy to ethnos within the West, and reinforce the ethnos‐politics of Austria's Haider and France's LePen.     

Putting security governance to the test: conceptual,empirical, and normative challenges

Security governance has featured prominently in recent debates about fragmentation, informalization, and privatization in the increasingly diverse field of security policy. It has inspired much valuable research. Yet, there are not just very different conceptual understandings of security governance; there is also a lack of clarity regarding its empirical manifestations and normative connotations. After a decade of research, the special issue therefore puts security governance to the test and scrutinizes its analytical and political pitfalls and potentials. This editorial briefly reviews the rise of security governance, identifies central conceptual, empirical, and normative challenges that need to be addressed, and introduces the individual contributions to this special issue.     

Globalisation,Reconciliation and the Conditions for Conserving Peace

This paper analyses the relationship between globalisation and peace. The first part focuses on the diachronic process by which world globalisation developed after the Peace of Westphalia by means of the mechanical and subsequently organic formation of globalisation. Globalisation is analytically conceptualised as a global market of instrumentalities in which everything, like the lingua franca, is common—culture, communication, transport. Globalisation is then analysed with reference to peace and conflicts. A starting point is the observation that globalisation needs peace and pacified environments, whereas peace does not depend on globalisation. To show this the author discusses the polysemy of peace, generated by the peace of tradition and modernity and the peace of good and goods. In terms of practical relations a key role is played by how these various conceptions of peace relate to ultimate and intermediate values. The range of conceptions of peace is applied to a model of four categories of national society and each of these categories is placed in relation with another, since these reciprocal relations are the condition generating world globalisation. The result of the comparison is that globalisation produces conflict because the different conceptions of peace prevalent in each society are unable to enter into dialogue with each other. In the real world contemporary globalisation is made possible and effective by a range of engines (political and military centres, and peacemaking centres–international organisations), control functions (individuals, organisations, public opinion, a worldwide creative “multitude”) and instruments (reconciliation, negotiation, a tendency in relations for intermediate values to prevail over ultimate values).     

新加坡汇率与贸易收支关系的协整分析

自从70年代以来,新加坡出现了汇率不断升值和贸易收支顺差不断增加的并存局面,这与传统的“J”曲线效应理论相矛盾,形成了所谓的“新加坡贸易收支之谜”。由于汇率和贸易收支常常是非平稳时间序列,传统弹性实证分析中常用的古典计量方法就很难得到无偏有效估计量。本文采用非平稳时间序列的协整计量方法直接估算了新加坡汇率和贸易收支之间的关系,发现产生“新加坡贸易收支之谜”的原因在于:新加坡有着较高的美国需求弹性和较低的国内需求弹性,从而使得新加坡货币在不断升值的情况下还可以保持贸易收支顺差。导致这一情况出现的深层原因,是新加坡产业结构的转换和升级导致出口商品结构的优化。     

中东和谈:跌宕起伏,风雷激变

中东和谈启动 12年来 ,曾一度取得重要成果 ,几次出现重大突破。但由于以政局变化与政见分歧、阿以力量对比失衡和美对以的偏袒等不利因素 ,中东和谈至今仍陷于僵局。     

China and Peace Building on the Korean Peninsula

The author believes that in contrast to the enhanced regional security regimes in Europe and elsewhere, the security mechanism for Northeast Asia is still just a talking point. He than gives illustration on the peaceful development on the Peninsula and China's role. Finally, he talks about some Chinese thoughts regarding this issue, and hopes that consensus regarding the format, content and membership of a potential peace regime could emerge from these preliminary explorations.     

Terrorist Groups and Political Fronts: The IRA,Sinn Fein,the Peace Process and Democracy

By characterizing the relationship between political fronts and their terrorist organizations this article sets out to explain the underlying reason for the impasse that has come about in the Northern Ireland peace process over decommissioning. It argues that political fronts are subordinate to their terrorist groups and that dual membership between the two is a common feature. Sinn Fein, at least until the autumn of 2001, has been subordinate to the IRA Army Council and so was unable to deliver IRA disarmament. It is then suggested that this misunderstanding, or willingness to overlook the fact, in 1998 has led to the legitimization of Sinn Fein by three democratic states and this has been fundamental in bringing about the party's electoral advance. Loyalist disenchantment, with both this advance and what it has perceived to be the flood of concessions to republicans because of the implied threat of violence, could ultimately have led to violence on a worse scale than the 30 years of the 'Troubles'. The international strategic environment that the republican movement was confronted with changed this. The departure of President Bill Clinton from office and the election of George W. Bush, the Colombian episode, and the declared 'war on terrorism' following the 11 September attacks, were all significant factors behind the IRA's first act of putting weapons beyond use. The possibility, however, that the move was a tactical one-off merely to stave off American pressure and cement Sinn Fein's position in the new political dispensation (and thereby confirm Sinn Fein's status as a political front subordinate to the IRA) should not be discounted. It could also be argued, however, that, because of the apparent shift in control that took place within the Army Council after the events of August and September 2001 towards the 'Sinn Fein element' that supported putting weapons beyond use, the act represents the beginning of an incremental process that will, events permitting, lead to further such moves and the ultimate disbandment of the IRA. If this is the case then the autumn of 2001 is the time that Sinn Fein ceased to be a political 'front', and was henceforth the senior partner in the Republican movement. Nevertheless, the party would still have a long way to go before becoming a democratic party.     

和平、发展与祖国统一相互关系辨析

正确把握和平、发展与祖国统一三者之间的辨证关系是当前我国对外大战略中必须高度重视的问题之一。谋和平 ,求发展是当代世界各国人民的普遍愿望。只有顺应这一历史潮流 ,通过与世界各国人民一道 ,共同努力维护世界和平与稳定 ,才能谈得上中国的和平崛起与发展。保持世界和平与稳定是中国发展与实现祖国统一的基本前提 ,和平促进发展 ,发展促进祖国统一 ,没有和平与发展就谈不上实现祖国统一和中华民族的伟大复兴     

Causes of Peace: Democracy, Interdependence, and International Organizations, 1885–1992

Previous studies provide strong evidence for the Kantian theory of peace, but a satisfactory evaluation requires establishing the causal influence of the variables. Here we focus on the reciprocal relations between economic interdependence and interstate conflict, 1885–1992. Using distributed-lags analyses, we find that economically important trade does have a substantively important effect in reducing dyadic militarized disputes, even with extensive controls for the influence of past conflict. The benefit of interdependence is particularly great in the case of conflict involving military fatalities. Militarized disputes also cause a reduction in trade, as liberal theory predicts. Democracy and joint membership in intergovernmental organizations, too, have im-portant pacific benefits; but we find only limited support for the role of costly signals in establishing the liberal peace. We find no evidence that democratization increases the incidence of interstate disputes; and contrary to realists' expectations, allies are not less conflict prone than states that are not allied. Democracies and states that share membership in many international organizations have higher levels of trade, but allies do not when these influences are held constant.     

促进合作维护和平实现共赢--东北亚地区国际关系走势分析

东北亚是世界重要经济区之一。日本、韩国的资金、技术 ,俄罗斯的资源 ,对我国的经济建设 ,尤其对东北老工业基地振兴 ,是不可缺少的。东北亚是大国利益交汇处 ,是世界热点之一 ,但不会发生战争。要树立外交新思维 ,采取灵活的外交政策 ,维护东北亚的和平稳定 ,积极推进以中、日、韩合作为核心的东北亚经济合作 ,实现地区繁荣 ,为我国全面建设小康社会创造良好的国际环境。     

Strengthen Exchanges and Cooperation with Peace Organizations around the World under the Banner of Peace

At early 1980’s, based on analysis of the new changes, features and trends of the international situation, Comrade Deng Xiaoping came to the important conclusion that peace and development had become strategic issues with global significance of the contemporary world. It put an     

The Political Enforcement of Liberalism: Bargaining, Institutions, and Auto Multinationals in Hungary

The demise of communism triggered large flows of foreign direct investment into Eastern Europe. This article examines the impact of recent changes in the international environment—the transformation of world production systems and the rise of neoliberalism—on bargaining between multinational corporations and post-communist governments. It focuses on the Hungarian automobile industry, one of the region's largest recipients of FDI. The Hungarian case illustrates the ability of small, open, and geopolitically weak states to parlay shifts in the global environment into a bargaining asset. The ascent of lean production heightened pressure on auto MNCs to develop local supplier systems capable of fast delivery of components to East European subsidiaries. The pull of backward integration was particularly strong for Japanese producers, whose non-European status enabled Hungarian state authorities to secure commitments to raising domestic content. Transplanting Japanese-style production in Eastern Europe proved less vexing for European MNCs, whose status as EU-based companies freed them of local-content requirements and whose preexisting supplier networks obviated heavy investments in the Hungarian components industry. But while Western auto producers enjoyed highly favorable terms of entry into Eastern Europe, even they could not elude the paradoxical effects of global changes on MNC/host state relations. The very eastward extension of the European Union's nondiscriminatory rules that facilitated EU-based firms' entry into Hungary also permitted host state authorities to parry efforts by MNCs to obtain particularistic concessions after entry. The Hungarian case thus demonstrates that MNC/host state bargaining in the post–Cold War period hinges more on the global positions of multinationals than on the structural vulnerabilities of capital-importing states ( per dependency theory) or the internal capacity of host states ( per statist theories).