Long Live Democracy: The Determinants of Political Instability in Latin America

We investigate the underlying causes of political instability in a panel of 18 Latin American countries from 1971–2000. We test whether regime type, regime durability, factionalism, income inequality, ethnic diversity, ethnic discrimination, regional spillover effects, urban growth and macroeconomic variables matter for instability. We find several important results: (1) democracy has a significant negative effect on instability that is robust to several alternative specifications; (2) factionalised political systems experience higher instability; (3) income inequality, ethnic fractionalisation, and urban growth have important nonlinear effects on instability; and (4) of the macroeconomic variables we study, only openness to trade has a significant negative effect on instability.     

Russia's Response to Crisis: The Paradox of Success

Russia's recovery from the deep economic crisis it experienced in 2008–2009 did not deliver clear political dividends for the Russian leadership. This is because of the context in which the crisis occurred and the way that the leadership, particularly President Medvedev, and many of its critics described the crisis. The oil-fuelled boom that preceded the crisis had the effect of deepening it. Economic recovery based on rising energy prices looks like a failure, rather than a success, and highlights the underlying structural problems of the Russian economy. Arguments about the need for modernisation from within government exacerbated this perception. This seems to have weakened the connection between approval for the leadership and economic growth, a staple of pre-crisis politics.     

The Empty Heaven of Democracy

Going through a protracted period of transition since the end of the Cold War, the world order in the making is neither what was nor what it is yet to become. It is in “the middle of the future.” To get our bearings in this uncertain transition, we explore the two grand post‐Cold War narratives—“The End of History” as posited by Francis Fukuyama and “The Clash of Civilizations” posited by the late Samuel Huntington. Mikhail Gorbachev looks back at his policies that brought the old order to collapse. The British philosopher John Gray critiques the supposed “universality” of liberalism and, with Homi Bhabha, sees a world of hybrid identities and localized cultures. The Singaporean theorist Kishore Mahbubani peels away the “veneer” of Western dominance. Amartya Sen, the economist and Nobel laureate, assesses whether democratic India or autocratic China is better at building “human capacity” in their societies.     

Consolidating Democracy in Thailand: The First Four Years of Democracy under the Constitution of 1997

The period across parliamentary elections in Thailand, 2001–2005, constitutes the longest continuous government under a democratic constitution in Thai history. This article explores the consolidation of democracy in the Thai population during this period through national probability samples of Thai public opinion. The results indicate movement in the direction of greater support for democracy, but also revealing significant cleavages corresponding to the ‘two democracies’ thesis that proved to be the basis for bringing this era of democracy to an end.     

The American Founders Entrusted Elites to Save Democracy from Itself

The word “democracy” does not appear in the US Constitution . Nor in the Bill of Rights or the Declaration of Independence . That is because, as most Americans today would likely be surprised to discover , America's Founding Fathers not only distrusted democracy but, based on their close reading of Greek and Roman history, were actually hostile to the notion that it was the best system for governing society .     

The Long Walk to Knowledge: On the Determinants of Higher Education Mobility to Europe

This paper investigates the determinants of demand for higher education mobility from students in developing countries to Europe. Used together with various linguistic relations, we emphasise the relevance of informal and formal networks in explaining resistance to student migration. The former are made up of friends or previous students while the latter are formal partnerships that have been established among higher education institutions. Overall, our results show that, apart from the usual economic considerations, student mobility is strongly correlated with non-monetary factors specific to origin and destination, such as socio-demographic characteristics, individual beliefs, and institutional profiles.     

“中国共产党执政实现了惊人的成功”——专访莱索托民主大会总书记莫泰乔阿·梅辛

记者：中国共产党和莱索托民主大会于2002年正式建立外交关系。您对这些年来两党关系的发展有何评价？对进一步发展两党之间的交流与合作有何设想？     

From Situations of Dependency to Globalized Social Democracy

President Cardoso's recent assessment of the prospects for “globalized social democracy” raises, once again, the question of what space for agency exists within the global political economy for actors in the South, which was central to the analysis Cardoso and Faletto presented in Dependency and Development 40 years ago. Dependency and Development's “historical–structural” approach balanced belief in the possibility of political agency with a keen appreciation of structural constraint. Cardoso's current exploration of global possibilities carries forward both tradition of the historical–structural method, arguing that social democracy is an option in the South and that the globalized social democrats in the South will play a growing role in shaping global political institutions. He does not explore the possibility that social democrats in the South may need to play a role in shaping global economic rules. This paper argues that reconstructing global market rules is crucial to the long-run success of “globalized social democracies” in the South and that such reconstruction, however difficult, lies within the realm of the historically viable.     

Consolidating Democracy: The Reform of Mongolian Intelligence

A different kind of intelligence failure

Martin E. Silverstein: Disasters: Your Right to Survive Brassey's, Washington, D.C., 1992, 207p., $26.00.

Howard R. Simpson: Tiger in the Barbed Wire: An American in Vietnam 1952–1991 Brassey's, Washington, D.C., 1992, 260 p., $23.00.

British intelligence in World War II: the final phase

F. H. Hinsley, with E. E. Thomas, C. A. G. Simkins and C. F. G. Ransom: British Intelligence in the Second World War: Its Influence on Strategy and Operations, Volume 3, Part II. Cambridge University Press, New York, 1988, 1038 p., $84.95. Her Majesty's Stationery Office, London, £29.95.

OSS special weapons and equipment: the arms of secrecy

H. Keith Melton: Spy Devices of World War II Sterling Publishing, New York, 1991, $14.95.

The new breed of spies

Thomas B. Allen and Norman Polmar: Merchants of Treason: America's Secret for Sale Delacorte Dell Press, New York, 1988, 471 p., $4.95 PB, $19.95 HB.

The Cambridge spies never die

Verne W. Newton: The Cambridge Spies: The Untold Story of Maclean, Philby, and Burgess in America Madison Books, Lanham, Md., 440 p. $24.95.     

China's Labyrinth: The Rise of Monitory Democracy

The new element in governance is social media. Inexorably, its fertile networks of shared information shift power from authorities to citizens and amateurs, including to the “unknown” experts in the “dorm rooms and edges of society” who drive innovation. Tweets may bust trust and undermine authority, but can social media also be a tool for building consensus through deliberation and negotiation among interests? When it comes to governance, is crowd‐sourcing any better than populism at generating collective intelligence instead of disruptive “dumb mobs?” Can networks aid the self‐administration of society, or does that take institutions with governing authority? In this section, leading Silicon Valley entrepreneurs, technologists and network theorists from Google, Microsoft and the MIT Media Lab join with political scientist Francis Fukuyama and top thinkers from Asia to address these issues.     

Vital Democracy: A Theory of Democracy in Action

Scottish citizens benefit from 19 per cent more public spending per head than English citizens. The ‘Barnett formula’ is slowly reducing the gap, but very little is known about the countries' relative needs and hence about how far the present gap is defensible: the aim of this paper is to throw some light on the countries' relative needs. We begin with the complex formulae that the Westminster government uses to assess the spending needs of English local authorities, and we use these English formulae to assess the needs of Scottish local authorities for three major blocks of local services. These formulae suggest that Scotland needs 6.4 per cent more per head than England for environmental, protective and cultural services, 8.1 per cent more for highway maintenance, and between 24.3 per cent and 35.3 per cent more for fire services. We also combine these results with those of two other papers concerned with local education and social services to show that these English formulae put Scotland's per capita needs for local government services as a whole at about 6 per cent above England's. However, we then compare the relative needs of Scottish local authorities as assessed by the English formulae with their relative needs as assessed by the Scottish needs formulae that are currently used by Holyrood, and we find major differences. This suggests either that at least one country uses seriously flawed formulae to assess needs, or that the two countries have different conceptions of need.     

The Determinants of Local Government's Financial Transparency

This paper contributes to the scarce literature on government transparency by analysing the impact of political and socio-economic factors on municipal financial transparency. Our sample covers the 100 largest Spanish municipalities in 2008. Compulsory publicity and transparency are key to public management (rule-of-law theory). Our data show that Spanish municipalities are providing financial information beyond the legal requirements, thus exceeding the compulsory disclosures required by the rule-of-law theory. The more taxes and more transfers per capita, the more financial information is disclosed and, accordingly, the higher the transparency is. Therefore the municipalities are not taking advantage of fiscal illusion or principal–agent effects, since they are not concealing higher levels of taxes and transfers from citizens. Furthermore, left-wing parties are more transparent than right-wing ones. Finally, the population also has a positive effect on the achievement of financial transparency.     

From Communism to Confucianism: China's Alternative to Liberal Democracy

Buoyed by its creditor's hold on the United States and its ability to withstand the harsh winds of recession blowing from across the Pacific, China has graduated in its own mind from an emerging economy to a world power. From their confrontation with Google to their renewed repression of dissidents to their dissing of President Obama, China's leaders clearly feel that the time has come for the world to accomodate China, not vice‐versa. Is the West ready for this new reality? Is China's new arrogance well‐founded, or is it going to be the next bubble to burst? As it moves beyond “the primary stage of socialism” is it ready to open up politically? In this section, some top China scholars, one of China's most well‐known dissidents and a former US spy chief discuss these issues.